Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,039
|
Post by Khunanup on Jun 20, 2024 17:24:01 GMT
Amusingly that Baxters out as Labour 518 Lib Dem 53 Tory 29 SNP 21 PC 4 Reform 4 Green 2 No, I don't believe it either. It seems to me that there is a flaw in the EC programming that greatly overestimates the prospects of the Lib Dems. To check this, I experimentally kept all the other vote shares the same except for reducing the Lib Dems to 5%, which would truly be a dismal result for them. Yet EC still gave them an utterly implausible 32 seats. Even if you reduce it to 3% they still win 11 seats. Still, if they really win 53 seats on 9% of the vote, compared with 29 for the Tories on 18%, it might awaken them to the latent merits of FPTP.
Hardly, it would just be a paragon of the perversity of the system, and the Tories would have been bitten hard by it... |
|
|
|
Post by islington on Jun 20, 2024 18:15:14 GMT
Amusingly that Baxters out as Labour 518 Lib Dem 53 Tory 29 SNP 21 PC 4 Reform 4 Green 2 No, I don't believe it either. It seems to me that there is a flaw in the EC programming that greatly overestimates the prospects of the Lib Dems. To check this, I experimentally kept all the other vote shares the same except for reducing the Lib Dems to 5%, which would truly be a dismal result for them. Yet EC still gave them an utterly implausible 32 seats. Even if you reduce it to 3% they still win 11 seats. Still, if they really win 53 seats on 9% of the vote, compared with 29 for the Tories on 18%, it might awaken them to the latent merits of FPTP.
Hardly, it would just be a paragon of the perversity of the system, and the Tories would have been bitten hard by it... Well, don't worry about it because I'll give you my 100% copper-bottomed personal guarantee that if you end up with Ashcroft's predicted 9% vote share, you won't win 53 seats.
If I turn out to be wrong this guarantee is redeemable on 5 Jul. In that event I'll send you my forwarding address. It's conveniently located in Benbecula. I regret that only in-person claims can be accepted.
|
|
|
|
Post by batman on Jun 20, 2024 19:24:11 GMT
Happens I'm going there that day, will be nice to see you again islington
|
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Jul 2, 2024 21:49:12 GMT
Tomorrow's DMail:-
Lab 38
Con 19
Ref 18
|
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Jul 5, 2024 8:34:23 GMT
|
|
