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Post by marksenior on May 12, 2017 21:33:17 GMT
Lord Ashcroft has published a massive 40,000 poll a bit out of date as sampling ended 1st May .
Overall VI seems to be Con 47 Lab 28 LD 12 UKIP 6 .
Some of the past vote VI for regions are very suspect . 20% of the Scottish sample voted Conservative in 2015 for example and more voted Conservative than Labour in London and Wales was an almost dead heat . Overall the sample seems about 2% too Conservative and 2% not enough Labour .
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Post by An Sionnach Flannbhuí on May 12, 2017 21:41:52 GMT
Lord Ashcroft has published a massive 40,000 poll a bit out of date as sampling ended 1st May . Overall VI seems to be Con 47 Lab 28 LD 12 UKIP 6 . Some of the past vote VI for regions are very suspect . 20% of the Scottish sample voted Conservative in 2015 for example and more voted Conservative than Labour in London and Wales was an almost dead heat . Overall the sample seems about 2% too Conservative and 2% not enough Labour . Has he then published the poll based on a sample adjusted for past VI or not? (You offer no link). If no adjustment, #fakenews, garbage poll. If he has adjusted there should no problem. |
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Post by marksenior on May 12, 2017 21:46:59 GMT
Lord Ashcroft has published a massive 40,000 poll a bit out of date as sampling ended 1st May . Overall VI seems to be Con 47 Lab 28 LD 12 UKIP 6 . Some of the past vote VI for regions are very suspect . 20% of the Scottish sample voted Conservative in 2015 for example and more voted Conservative than Labour in London and Wales was an almost dead heat . Overall the sample seems about 2% too Conservative and 2% not enough Labour . Has he then published the poll based on a sample adjusted for past VI or not? (You offer no link). If no adjustment, #fakenews, garbage poll. If he has adjusted there should no problem. No he has not adjusted for past vote just published lots of figures . If you want hours of fun looking at them then go to his website . FWIW IMHO not garbage or fake news but out of date with some deficiencies . |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453 
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Post by iain on May 12, 2017 22:04:50 GMT
Regional results:
Scotland:
SNP - 40% (-10%)
Con - 30% (+15%)
Lab - 17% (-7%)
LD - 8% (-)
UKIP - 1% (-)
Oth - 3% (+1%)
North East:
Con - 43% (+18%)
Lab - 40% (-7%)
UKIP - 8% (-9%)
LD - 7% (-)
Oth - 2% (-3%)
North West:
Con - 44% (+13%)
Lab - 39% (-5%)
LD - 9% (+2%)
UKIP - 6% (-8%)
Oth - 2% (-2%)
Yorkshire & Humber:
Con - 45% (+12%)
Lab - 34% (-5%)
LD - 11% (+4%)
UKIP - 7% (-9%)
Oth - 4% (-1%)
West Midlands
Con - 52% (+10%)
Lab - 29% (-4%)
LD - 8% (+2%)
UKIP - 7% (-9%)
Oth - 4% (-)
East Midlands
Con - 52% (+8%)
Lab - 27% (-5%)
LD - 11% (+5%)
UKIP - 7% (-9%)
Oth - 4% (-)
Wales
Con - 42% (+15%)
Lab - 32% (-5%)
Plaid - 12% (-)
LD - 7% (-)
UKIP - 5% (-9%)
Oth - 2% (-2%)
East
Con - 53% (+4%)
Lab - 22% (-)
LD - 13% (+5%)
UKIP - 8% (-8%)
Oth - 5% (+1%)
London
Con - 41% (+6%)
Lab - 34% (-10%)
LD - 16% (+8%)
UKIP - 4% (-4%)
Oth - 5% (-1%)
South East
Con - 56% (+5%)
Lab - 19% (+1%)
LD - 14% (+5%)
UKIP - 6% (-9%)
Oth - 4% (-2%)
South West
Con - 52% (+5%)
Lab - 23% (+5%)
LD - 15% (-)
UKIP - 5% (-9%)
Oth - 4% (-3%)
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453
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Post by iain on May 12, 2017 22:06:27 GMT
Those seem pretty plausible to me, with the exception of the massive Tory leap in the NE and smaller LD rise in EM, and the Labour SW (and to a lesser extent SE) results. Is there something in the idea that Labour poll better in the south than they actually do due to tactical voting?
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Post by Arthur Figgis on May 12, 2017 22:07:29 GMT
NE looks beyond bollocks, for a start. I look forward to being proved wrong.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 12, 2017 22:19:37 GMT
Looks like voodoo to me.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2017 8:17:03 GMT
NE looks beyond bollocks, for a start. I look forward to being proved wrong. I'll eat Lord Twaddleford s hat if we win in the North East |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,057
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Post by Sibboleth on May 13, 2017 10:35:30 GMT
Why does Ashcroft do things like this and expect people to take him at all seriously?
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Post by finsobruce on May 13, 2017 10:41:30 GMT
Why does Ashcroft do things like this and expect people to take him at all seriously? 1. Because he is Lord Ashcroft 2. Because most people will read the headlines and not the detail 3. Because he has money to burn. I suppose we should be grateful he spends some of it on polling, so we have something to talk about. You could say it was a social service.  4. Just because. |
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on May 13, 2017 11:11:21 GMT
NE looks beyond bollocks, for a start. I look forward to being proved wrong. I'll eat Lord Twaddleford s hat if we win in the North East You'll have to fetch it yourself, of course. I'm certainly not going to deliver it.  |
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Post by carlton43 on May 13, 2017 11:24:18 GMT
Why does Ashcroft do things like this and expect people to take him at all seriously? Why do you think h does it at quite considerable personal expense? |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,057
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Post by Sibboleth on May 13, 2017 11:40:35 GMT
I always assumed it was like those men who pay thousands for individual postage stamps? A particularly nerdish hobby plus Way Too Much Money...
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Post by carlton43 on May 13, 2017 11:43:50 GMT
I always assumed it was like those men who pay thousands for individual postage stamps? A particularly nerdish hobby plus Way Too Much Money... A compulsive hobby? Perhaps? Do you have a similar area compulsive hobby? Do you think he believes his results and is working at improving them? |
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Post by tonygreaves on May 13, 2017 13:00:57 GMT
Very rich, very arrogant. Or "because he can and wants to".
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2017 20:09:28 GMT
Very rich, very arrogant. Or "because he can and wants to". My favourite Ashcroft model prediction so far is Doncaster North - "too close to call"! |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 13, 2017 21:27:45 GMT
Very rich, very arrogant. Or "because he can and wants to". My favourite Ashcroft model prediction so far is Doncaster North - "too close to call"! That was because he misread the poll results, wasn't it? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2017 21:39:34 GMT
His Lordship explains his methodology. The Ashcroft Model is based on Multilevel Regression and Poststratification, or MRP – a process that combines survey results with concrete demographic and other information to calculate the probability that a certain individual will have a certain view, given what we already know about them. The project will make available the kind of information that is increasingly used by political parties and professional campaigns, but rarely finds its way into the public domain.
The Ashcroft Model combines the results of a 40,000-sample survey (the biggest I have ever conducted) with detailed census data. This shows us the likelihood that particular kinds of people – in terms of their age, sex, occupation, level of education, and so on – will have a particular opinion. It uses information from people of the same demographic background but who are from substantially different geographic areas to help calculate these probabilities. Crucially, the model then allows us to extrapolate this information to individual constituencies according to the profile of their population.
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Post by thirdchill on May 14, 2017 8:16:22 GMT
Brentford and Isleworth is leaning labour. I submit that he is vastly overstating the importance of Brexit in VI. The impact of all of his factors is vastly overstated. That is the problem. He has probably got it right in general terms when looking at individual regions or seats and where there may be smaller swings (e.g. in parts of inner london). Hence Westminster North staying as a labour hold when seats that have larger labour majorities are at higher risk of being lost. The problem is the importance attached to these factors when people decide how to vote. It seems to discount the fact that people almost certainly rule out one or more parties even if they appear to be more in line with that party's position or how they feel about the state of the country as it is now. |
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Post by An Sionnach Flannbhuí on May 14, 2017 8:17:43 GMT
My favourite Ashcroft model prediction so far is Doncaster North - "too close to call"! That was because he misread the poll results, wasn't it? You're referring, I think, to a 2015 dodgy prediction, but too close to call is his lordship's prediction for 2017:  |
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