Oh Lordy A Big Ashcroft poll

[johng]

This looks terrible for Johnson (and, yes, I know we are a long way from a general election).

www.conservativehome.com/platform/2020/10/lord-ashcroft-what-my-new-poll-of-eight-thousand-people-says-about-covid-19-the-two-main-parties-johnson-starmer.html

[The Bishop]

The fall in his personal ratings since the spring is pretty striking, no doubt about that.

[matureleft]

A largely confirmatory picture:
* Labour has swept up most of the potential support from already-progressive voters, some of whom were either averse to Corbyn or such strong Remain supporters as to vote Lib Dem, or both.
* Starmer has made good progress in both establishing his brand - competent, good at holding the government to account - and has contributed (with Johnson's help) to drops in Johnson's ratings for competence. However many still don't know enough about him.
* Few voters have noted much change in the Labour party beyond its leadership (and they are right in terms of policy). There's an opportunity for a striking (almost symbolic) gesture.
* There are small inroads among Lab-Con switchers in 2019, mostly among those who share broad Labour instincts against a hasty (as they see it) return to normality.
* And the economy, how the government handles the seemingly inevitable collapse in particularly low-paid and low-skilled employment, will be the next big test.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Oct 5, 2020 12:55:21 GMT matureleft said:

A largely confirmatory picture:
* Labour has swept up most of the potential support from already-progressive voters, some of whom were either averse to Corbyn or such strong Remain supporters as to vote Lib Dem, or both.
* Starmer has made good progress in both establishing his brand - competent, good at holding the government to account - and has contributed (with Johnson's help) to drops in Johnson's ratings for competence. However many still don't know enough about him.
* Few voters have noted much change in the Labour party beyond its leadership (and they are right in terms of policy). There's an opportunity for a striking (almost symbolic) gesture.
* There are small inroads among Lab-Con switchers in 2019, mostly among those who share broad Labour instincts against a hasty (as they see it) return to normality.
* And the economy, how the government handles the seemingly inevitable collapse in particularly low-paid and low-skilled employment, will be the next big test.

I wonder if he even needs to make that gesture- the Corbynistas essentially have Nowhere Else To Go, so he might as well leave them be and keep them on side.

His challenge now is keeping the discipline together, which will become harder for all parties as this situation continues.  We are already starting to see deviations from the message in both Labour and the Tories, none too loud yet but vaguely audible.

[jollyroger93]

Oct 5, 2020 11:29:06 GMT The Bishop said:

The fall in his personal ratings since the spring is pretty striking, no doubt about that.

Because putting it lightly he’s been found out to be beyond fucking useless.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 5, 2020 13:52:31 GMT jollyroger93 said:

Oct 5, 2020 11:29:06 GMT The Bishop said:

The fall in his personal ratings since the spring is pretty striking, no doubt about that.

Because putting it lightly he’s been found out to be beyond fucking useless.

The biggest surprise was that this was actually a surprise to some people!

[tonyhill]

"He makes me laugh." Not sure how much that pertains these days.

[matureleft]

Oct 5, 2020 13:28:56 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Oct 5, 2020 12:55:21 GMT matureleft said:

A largely confirmatory picture:
* Labour has swept up most of the potential support from already-progressive voters, some of whom were either averse to Corbyn or such strong Remain supporters as to vote Lib Dem, or both.
* Starmer has made good progress in both establishing his brand - competent, good at holding the government to account - and has contributed (with Johnson's help) to drops in Johnson's ratings for competence. However many still don't know enough about him.
* Few voters have noted much change in the Labour party beyond its leadership (and they are right in terms of policy). There's an opportunity for a striking (almost symbolic) gesture.
* There are small inroads among Lab-Con switchers in 2019, mostly among those who share broad Labour instincts against a hasty (as they see it) return to normality.
* And the economy, how the government handles the seemingly inevitable collapse in particularly low-paid and low-skilled employment, will be the next big test.

I wonder if he even needs to make that gesture- the Corbynistas essentially have Nowhere Else To Go, so he might as well leave them be and keep them on side.

His challenge now is keeping the discipline together, which will become harder for all parties as this situation continues.  We are already starting to see deviations from the message in both Labour and the Tories, none too loud yet but vaguely audible.

Agree on the second part, and the emphasis on discipline and message is strong. I suspect that the production of the EHRC report (and the internal inquiry into the leaked rebuttal attempt) may prompt some actions noticeable beyond the Westminster bubble. 

[The Bishop]

Oct 5, 2020 10:03:38 GMT johng said:

This looks terrible for Johnson (and, yes, I know we are a long way from a general election)

An election where Johnson is increasingly unlikely to still be there. It is any damage to the Tory brand more generally that perhaps matters more.

[clyde1998]

Another Ashcroft poll: lordashcroftpolls.com/2022/04/three-reasons-why-boris-johnson-can-survive-the-publics-anger-at-partygate/

Key points:

• The public generally approve of the Prime Minister's response to the Ukraine crisis.
• 47% of people think Johnson should resign due to the lockdown parties; 30% think it's a serious issue, but he shouldn't resign; 15% think it's a trivial issue.
• People are generally more likely to agree with Boris Johnson's statement on trans women than Keir Starmer's (when the quotes are not attributed to an individual).
• The cost of living is viewed as the single largest issue facing the country, followed by health (which is true for Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem voters - as well as the electorate as a whole).
• Boris Johnson is the most recognisable politician (among those tested), with 98% being able to identify him compared to 82% for Sunak and 81% for Starmer; Ed Davey was recognised by only 18%.
• The public generally believes Keir Starmer would do a better job than Boris Johnson in most key areas, however only in the areas of 'understanding ordinary people', 'communicating effectively' and 'formulating effective policies to improve people's lives' is there a 20pp, or greater, lead.
• 36% trust Labour to run the economy, compared to 28% for the Conservatives.
• Labour are trusted to run most policy areas better than the Conservatives - with standard of living, health and taxation - being the biggest leads. The Conservatives are ahead by 6pp on security however.
• The 'implied VI' is Lab 37.1%, Con 36.9%, LDm 7.4%, Grn 7.1%, SNP 4.2%, Plaid 0.6%, Others 6.7%; this is based on the party the respondent was most likely to vote for when providing a score out of 100 on likelihood to vote, if they provided a likelihood score greater than 50 for at least one party.
• 40% say they would never vote Conservative, compared to 39% for Reform, 25% for Labour and the Greens and 23% for the Lib Dems. 32% of those in Scotland would never vote SNP; 28% of those in Wales would never vote Plaid.

[woollyliberal]

lordashcroftpolls.com/2024/01/change-course-or-stick-to-the-plan-my-first-poll-of-2024/

Party shares with DK / WNV removed:

Con 26%
Lab 43%
LD 7%
SNP 2%
Green 7%
Reform 9%
PC 1%
Other 2%

[hullenedge]

Poll 8-12 Feb:-

Labour: 43%
Cons: 27%
Reform: 10%
Greens: 8%
LD: 8%

lordashcroftpolls.com/2024/02/the-28-billion-reversal-would-anything-change-under-labour-and-what-ofsted-rating-would-you-give-the-government-my-february-poll/

[batman]

pretty minimal change then.

[John Chanin]

The other questions are more interesting (as usual) than the headline party shares, even when you add back in the don't knows.

[woollyliberal]

The big Ashcroft poll and the big Find Out Now MRP were polled at the same time (the FON poll took longer). They both have big sample sizes so small margins of error, yet they differ markedly.

The LD share of Ashcroft is 7.23% +/- 0.71%, so 6.52% to 7.94%
The LD share of FON is 11% +/- 0.44% so 10.56% to 11.44% (tables not available so could be 0.5% either way)

There is a wide gap between the highest possible Ashcroft figure to the lowest FON figure. One or both have to be factually wrong. It shows that house effect contributes more to error than sample size.

[hullenedge]

[The Bishop]

Another of his Lordship's efforts out this morning, notable for showing Labour unchanged on his last poll with 43%. Tories and Reform level on 18%.

[Tony Otim]

Other figures LD 9, Grn 7, SNP 3

Fieldwork 13-17 June

[islington]

Amusingly that Baxters out as
Labour 518
Lib Dem 53
Tory 29
SNP 21
PC 4
Reform 4
Green 2

No, I don't believe it either. It seems to me that there is a flaw in the EC programming that greatly overestimates the prospects of the Lib Dems. To check this, I experimentally kept all the other vote shares the same except for reducing the Lib Dems to 5%, which would truly be a dismal result for them. Yet EC still gave them an utterly implausible 32 seats. Even if you reduce it to 3% they still win 11 seats.

Still, if they really win 53 seats on 9% of the vote, compared with 29 for the Tories on 18%, it might awaken them to the latent merits of FPTP.

[bigfatron]

Jun 20, 2024 16:22:55 GMT Tony Otim said:

Other figures LD 9, Grn 7, SNP 3

Fieldwork 13-17 June

Given Ashcroft is consistently 3% behind other pollsters in terms of Lib Dems this is consistent with our 11-12% average…