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Post by middleenglander on Feb 10, 2018 0:23:11 GMT
For week 2:Authority | Brighton & Hove
| East Staffordshire | Eden | South Staffordshire | Staffordshire | Weymouth & Portland | Weymouth & Portland | Total week 2 | Ward | East Brighton | Stretton | Hartside | Codsall South | Codsall | Tophill East | Tophill West | faults | AJS | 9.5 | 13.7 | 28.8+10
| 19.6
| 12.9
| 3.8+10
| 25.0+10
| 143.1
| andrewp | 10.9 | 13.7+10 | 26.8
| 19.6
| 14.0
| 19.8+10
| 39.7+10
| 174.5
| David Boothroyd | 6.9 | 17.4 | 15.0
| 7.6
| 22.9
| 23.5
| 19.7
| 113.1
| dibs | 47.5 | 20.8 | 20.8
| 27.6
| 14.9
| 31.7
| 27.7+10
| 200.9
| Eurolefty | 44.9 | 48.2 | 15.7
| 27.6
| 4.9
| 11.7
| 21.0+10
| 184.0
| greenrobinhood | 24.9 | 16.2 | 28.8+10
| 25.6
| 12.9
| 31.7
| 21.7+10
| 181.7
| hempie | 44.9 | 21.2 | 30.8+10
| 35.6
| 20.0
| 33.8+10
| 49.7+10
| 265.9
| k9 | 38.9 | 9.8 | 24.8
| 27.9
| 4.9
| 33.7
| 47.7+10
| 197.8
| Lancastrian | 20.9 | 25.0+10 | 40.8+10
| 39.6
| 18.0
| 25.8+10
| 47.7+10
| 257.8
| olympian95 | 13.3 | 11.2 | 29.7+10
| 27.6
| 28.9
| 27.5
| 45.7+10
| 203.9
| priceofdawn | 15.5 | 33.2+1 | 27.3+1
| 5.6
| 14.9
| 20.2
| 5.0
| 123.6
| ricmk | 44.9 | 16.3+10 | 20.8
| 17.6
| 24.9
| 75.5+10
| 37.7+10
| 267.7
| Right Leaning | 39.1 | 18.6 | 25.0
| 9.6
| 20.9
| 7.7
| 37.0+10
| 167.9
| robbienicoll | 18.9 | 24.9+10 | 20.8
| 5.6
| 14.9
| 3.8+10
| 29.0+10
| 147.9
| Robert Waller | 15.3 | 11.7 | 30.8+10
| 23.6
| 16.9
| 7.8+10
| 37.0+10
| 173.0
| Ruggerman | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 700 | williamhone | 34.9 | 60.8+10 | 19.0
| 63.6
| 40.0
| 6.3+10
| 41.0+10
| 295.6
| Yellow Peril | 34.9 | 20.9 | 36.8+10
| 19.6
| 18.9
| 27.8+10
| 45.7+10
| 234.6
| Total | 566.4 | 483.4+1+50 | 542.4+1+70
| 503.5
| 405.7
| 492.0+90
| 677.8+150
| 4,033.0
| nw12398 |
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| 27.8+10
| 43.7+10
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and for the first two weeks of February:
Row 1 column 1 | Week 1 faults
| Week 2 faults | Week 2 position | Weeks 1 & 2 faults | Weeks 1 & 2 position | AJS | 135.3 | 143.1 | 3rd | 278.4 | 6th | andrewp | 114.3 | 174.5 | 7th | 288.7 | 8th | David Boothroyd | 88.7 | 113.1 | 1st | 201.8 | 1st | dibs | 142.7 | 200.9 | 11th | 343.6 | 13th | Eurolefty | 200 | 184.0 | 9th | 384.0 | 15th | greenrobinhood | 136.3 | 181.7 | 8th | 318.0 | 11th | hempie | 96.3 | 265.9 | 15th | 362.2 | 14th | k9 | 78.6 | 197.8 | 10th | 276.4 | 5th | Lancastrian | 72.3 | 257.8 | 14th | 330.0 | 12th | olympian95 | 52.3 | 203.9 | 12th | 256.2 | 2nd | priceofdawm
| 151.3
| 123.6
| 2nd
| 274.8
| 4th
| ricmk | 184.6 | 267.7 | 16th | 452.3
| 17th | Right Leaning | 112.9 | 167.9 | 5th | 280.8 | 7th | robbienicoll | 120.9 | 147.9 | 4th | 268.8 | 3rd | Robert Waller | 122.7 | 173.0 | 6th | 295.7 | 9th | Ruggerman | 132.7 | 700 |
| 832.7 | 18th | williamhone | 133.7 | 295.6 | 17th | 429.3 | 16th | Yellow Peril | 75.3 | 234.6 | 13th | 309.9 | 10th | Total faults | 2,150.8
| 4,033.0 |
| 6,183.6 |
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Objections please by noon Sunday.
There are 14 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday when hopefully normal service will be resumed.
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 9, 2018 21:37:12 GMT
There are another 26 by-elections called in the second half of February, 19 so far during March and 1 already in April. There are a further 14 known vacancies where there is as yet no date for the by-election, although 4 of these will have ward elections in May. There are also 23 reported vacancies which will not be filled under the "six month" rule.
15 February - 14 Doncaster MB, Armthorpe - Labour died - 2 candidates: Lab, Ind East Northamptonshire DC, Higham Ferrers Lancaster - Conservative died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP Epsom & Ewell BC, Ruxley - Resident resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Resident Falkirk UA, Bonnybridge & Larbert - SNP died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, SNP, Green, UKIP Halton UA, Halton Castle - Labour died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, No Description Lancashire CC, Morecambe North - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Northamptonshire CC, Higham Ferrers - Conservative died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP North East Derbyshire DC, Grassmoor - Labour resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD North Norfolk DC, Worstead - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Teignbridge DC, Chudleigh - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Teignbridge DC, Dawlish Central & North East - Conservative resigned - 2 candidates: Con, LD Tendring DC, St Paul's - UKIP sitting as Independent resigned - 7 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP, 2 Ind West Oxfordshire DC, Carterton South - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD York UA, Holgate - Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green
22 February - 12 Arun DC, Marine - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Ind Boston BC, Old Leake & Wrangle - Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Blue Revolution Chichester DC, Fishbourne - Liberal Democrat resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Dorset CC, Bridport - Liberal Democrat resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green Hertfordshire CC, Goffs Oak & Bury Green - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green Lichfield DC, Stowe - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, Something New North Kesteven DC, Eagle, Swinderby & Witham St Hughs - Independent died - 3 candidates: Con, LD, Lincs Ind Scottish Borders UA, Selkirkshire - Conservative resigned following appointment as MSP - 7 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Green, 2 Ind Torfaen UA, Trevethin - Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Lab, Green, 2 Ind West Dorset DC, Bridport North - Liberal Democrat resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green West Somerset DC, Minehead South - Independent sitting as UKIP resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Wigan MB, Bryn - Independent resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Ind
1 March - 4 Basingstoke & Deane BC, Kempshott - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Clackmannanshire UA, Clackmannanshire North - SNP resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Green East Devon DC, Exmouth Town - Liberal Democrat resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, Ind Solihull MB, Blythe - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD
8 March - 8 Bolton MB, Farnworth - Labour resigned Dacorum BC, Northchurch - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green East Hampshire DC, Petersfield Bell Hill - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Ind Harlow BC, Little Pardon & Hare Street - Labour resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP Medway UA, Rochester West - Conservative resigned on appointment to Government - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP Nottingham UA, Wollaton West - Conservative died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, Bus Pass Elvis Rutland UA, Oakham South East - Conservative resigned - 2 candidates: Con, No Description Tameside MB, Droylesden East - Labour died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green
15 March - 3 Redcar & Cleveland UA, Longbeck - Independent resigned South Kesteven DC, Stamford St George's - Conservative resigned South Kesteven DC, St John's - Conservative resigned
22 March - 4 Cheshire East UA, Bunbury - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned Chiltern DC, Ridgeway - Independent died Midlothian UA, Pencuik - Labour died Thurrock UA, Ockendon - UKIP sitting as Independent resigned
5 April - 1 Highland UA, Caol & Mallaig - SNP died
Not yet called - 14 Aylesbury Vale DC, Central & Walton - Conservative resigned 6 February * Crawley BC, Ifield - Labour died 3 October Fylde BC, Heyhouses - Conservative died 20 December ** Hyndburn BC, St Oswalds - UKIP died 26 October Lancaster BC, Skerton West - Labour died 8 November Leicestershire CC, Stoney Stanton & Croft - Conservative died 2 January New Forest DC, Milford - Conservative died 12 January Perth & Kinross UA, Highland - Conservative died 6 February * Rochford DC, Hockley - Resident resigned around 21 December * Rushmoor BC, West Heath - UKIP sitting as Independent resigned 8 January St Edmundsbury BC, St Olave's - Labour resigned around middle of January Staffordshire Moorlands DC, Leek West - Conservative died 25 December Warrington UA, Lymm South - Conservative died 13 January Wyre BC, Breck - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned around 8 January
* elections in this ward in May ** election for this seat in May but not covered by 6 month rule
Vacancies arising under 6 month rule - 23 Barking & Dagenham LB, Heath - Labour resigned Bexley LB, Lesnes Abbey - Labour resigned Birmingham MB, Kings Norton - Labour resigned Bolton MB, Smithills - Liberal Democrat resigned Bradford MB, Little Horton - Labour resigned Brentwood BC, Herongate, Ingrave & West Horndon - Localist sitting as Liberal Democrat resigned Croydon LB, Selsdon & Ballard - Conservative resigned Croydon LB, Thornton Heath - Labour sitting as Independent resigned Hounslow LB, Bedfont - Labour resigned Hounslow LB, Chiswick Riverside - Conservative resigned Hounslow LB, Hanworth Park - Labour resigned Newcastle-upon-Tyne MB, South Jesmond - Labour resigned Oldham MB, Shaw - Liberal Democrat resigned Oxford UA, Northfield Brook - Labour died Portsmouth UA, Baffin - UKIP sitting as Conservative resigned Reigate & Banstead BC, South Park & Woodhatch - Conservative resigned Sefton MB, Blundellsands - Labour resigned South Cambridgeshire DC, Bourn - Conservative resigned South Lakeland DC, Burneside - Liberal Democrat resigned Sutton LB, Stonecot - Liberal Democrat died Weymouth & Portland BC, Weymouth West - Conservative sitting as Green resigned Winchester BC, Wonston & Micheldever - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned Wirral MB, Bebington - Labour died
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 8, 2018 17:18:30 GMT
Confirm there are 17 full entries this week with nothing from Carlton 43 and Ruggerman whilst Europeanlefty joins for the first time along with nw12398, who confines his prediction to the two Tophill by-elections. Priceofdawn gets 2 additional faults, 1 each for adding to 101% in East Staffordshire, Stretton and Eden, Hartside.
Brighton & Hove, East Brighton: 100% Labour hold, majority from 20% (Dibs over Conservative & Right Leaning over Green) to 45% (David Boothroyd over Conservative) East Staffordshire, Stretton: 12 Conservative hold, andrewp, Lancastrian, ricmk & robbienicholl Independent gain with WilliamHone Labour gain Eden, Hartside: 10 Conservatived hold, AJS, greenrobinhood, hempie, Lancastrian, olympian95, Robert Waller & Yellow Peril Independent gain South Staffordshire: Codsall South: 100% Conservative hold, majority from 5% (WilliamHone over Labour) to 62% (Priceofdawn over Labour) Staffordshire, Codsall: 100% Conservative hold, majority over Labour from 25% (WilliamHone) to 61% (Priceofdawn) Weymouth & Portland, Tophill East: 8 Conservative gain from Independent, AJS, andrewp, hempie, Lancastrian, robbienicholl, Robert Waller, WilliamHone & Yellow Peril plus nw12398 Labour gain whilst ricmk a Green gain Weymouth & Portland, Tophill West: 15 plus nw12398 Labour gain from Conservative, David Boothroyd & Priceofdawn Conservative hold
Again at our daughter's tonight so will try and catch up Friday.
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 2, 2018 17:53:58 GMT
There are another 33 by-elections called for February and 13 already in March. There are a further 18 known vacancies where there is as yet no date for the by-election, although 6 of these will have ward elections in May. There are also 23 reported vacancies which will not be filled under the "six month" rule.
8 February - 7 Brighton & Hove UA, East Brighton - Labour resigned following election as MP - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green East Staffordshire, Stretton - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Ind - Save Our Stretton Eden DC, Hartside - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, Green, Ind South Staffordshire DC, Codsall South - Conservative died 3 candidates: Con, Lab, Green Staffordshire CC, Codsall - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, Green Weymouth & Portland BC, Tophill East - Independent resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, Green Weymouth & Portland BC, Tophill West - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, Green
15 February - 14 Doncaster MB, Armthorpe - Labour died - 2 candidates: Lab, Ind East Northamptonshire DC, Higham Ferrers Lancaster - Conservative died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP Epsom & Ewell BC, Ruxley - Resident resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Resident Falkirk UA, Bonnybridge & Larbert - SNP died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, SNP, Green, UKIP Halton UA, Halton Castle - Labour died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, No Description Lancashire CC, Morecambe North - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Northamptonshire CC, Higham Ferrers - Conservative died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP North East Derbyshire DC, Grassmoor - Labour resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD North Norfolk DC, Worstead - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Teignbridge DC, Chudleigh - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Teignbridge DC, Dawlish Central & North East - Conservative resigned - 2 candidates: Con, LD Tendring DC, St Paul's - UKIP sitting as Independent resigned - 7 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP, 2 Ind West Oxfordshire DC, Carterton South - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD York UA, Holgate - Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green
22 February - 12 Arun DC, Marine - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Ind Boston BC, Old Leake & Wrangle - Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Blue Revolution Chichester DC, Fishbourne - Liberal Democrat resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Dorset CC, Bridport - Liberal Democrat resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green Hertfordshire CC, Goffs Oak & Bury Green - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green Lichfield DC, Stowe - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, Something New North Kesteven DC, Eagle, Swinderby & Witham St Hughes - Independent died - 3 candidates: Con, LD, Lincs Ind Scottish Borders UA, Selkirkshire - Conservative resigned following appointment as MSP - 7 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Green, 2 Ind Torfaen UA, Trevethin - Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Lab, Green, 2 Ind West Dorset DC, Bridport North - Liberal Democrat resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green West Somerset DC, Minehead South - Independent sitting as UKIP resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Wigan MB, Bryn - Independent resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Ind
1 March - 4 Basingstoke & Deane BC, Kempshott - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Clackmannanshire UA, Clackmannanshire North - SNP resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Green East Devon DC, Exmouth Town - Liberal Democrat resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, Ind Solihull MB, Blythe - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD
8 March - 6 Dacorum BC, Northchurch - Conservative died East Hampshire DC, Petersfield Bell Hill - Conservative resigned Harlow BC, Little Pardon & Harte Street - Labour resigned Medway UA, Rochester West - Conservative resigned on appointment to Government Nottingham UA, Wollaton West - Conservative died Rutland UA, Oakham South East - Conservative resigned
15 March - 3 Redcar & Cleveland UA, Longbeck - Independent resigned South Kesteven DC, Stamford St George - Conservative resigned South Kesteven DC, St Johns - Conservative resigned
Not yet called - 18 * Bolton MB, Farnworth - Labour resigned around 8 January Cheshire East UA, Bunbury - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned around 21 January Chiltern DC, Ridgeway - Independent died 29 December * Crawley BC, Ifield - Labour died 3 October Fylde BC, Heyhouses - Conservative died 20 December Highland UA, Caol & Mallaig - SNP died 18 January ** Hyndburn BC, St Oswalds - UKIP died 26 October Lancaster BC, Skerton West - Labour died 8 November Leicestershire CC, Stoney Stanton & Croft - Conservative died 2 January Midlothian UA, Penicuik - Labour died 10 January New Forest DC, Milford - Conservative died 12 January * Rochford DC, Hockley - Resident resigned around 21 December * Rushmoor BC, West Heath - UKIP sitting as Independent resigned 8 January St Edmundsbury BC, St Olave's - Labour resigned towards end of January Staffordshire Moorlands DC, Leek West - Conservative died 25 December * Tameside MB, East Droylesden - Labour died 25 December Warrington UA, Lymm South - Conservative died 13 January Wyre BC, Breck - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned around 8 January
* elections in this ward in May ** election for this seat in May but not covered by 6 month rule
Vacancies arising under 6 month rule - 23 Barking & Dagenham LB, Heath - Labour resigned Bexley LB, Lesnes Abbey - Labour resigned Birmingham MB, Kings Norton - Labour resigned Bolton MB, Smithills - Liberal Democrat resigned Bradford MB, Little Horton - Labour resigned Brentwood BC, Herongate. Ingrave & West Horden - Localist sitting as Liberal Democrat resigned Croydon LB, Selsdon & Ballard - Conservative resigned Croydon LB, Thornton Heath - Labour sitting as Independent resigned Hounslow LB, Bedfont - Labour resigned Hounslow LB, Chiswick Riverside - Conservative resigned Hounslow LB, Hanworth Park - Labour resigned Newcastle-upon-Tyne MB, South Jesmond - Labour resigned Oldham MB, Shaw - Liberal Democrat resigned Oxford UA, Northfield Brook - Labour died Portsmouth UA, Baffin - UKIP sitting as Conservative resigned Reigate & Banstead BC, South Park & Woodhatch - Conservative resigned Sefton MB, Blundellsands - Labour resigned South Cambridgeshire DC, Bourn - Conservative resigned South Lakeland DC, Burneside - Liberal Democrat resigned Sutton LB, Stonecot - Liberal Democrat died Weymouth & Portland BC, Weymouth West - Conservative sitting as Green resigned Winchester BC, Wonston & Micheldever - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned Wirral MB, Bebington - Labour died
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 2, 2018 16:03:35 GMT
Cornwall, Falmouth Smithick - Labour hold
Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | since 2013 | Labour | 643 | 60.2% | +19.9% | +26.8% | Conservative | 184 | 17.2% | -7.2% | +3.5% | Liberal Democrat | 184 | 17.2% | -1.7% | +0.9% | Green | 57 | 5.3% | -11.0% | from nowhere | Independent 1 |
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| -16.5% | Independent 2 |
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| -12.2% | Independent 3 |
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| -7.8% | Total votes | 1,068 |
| 90% | 113% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~ 13½% since last May and, less meaningful, ~ 12% since 2013 Council now 46 Conservative, 38 Liberal Democrat, 30 Independent, 5 Labour, 4 Mebyon Kernow Sunderland, Pallion, Liberal Democrat gain from Labour
Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | Liberal Democrat | 1,251 | 53.9% | +49.5% | +50.3% | +50.9% | +49.6% | Labour | 807 | 34.8% | -15.9% | -14.5% | -13.0% | -31.9% | Conservative | 126 | 5.4% | -7.2% | -9.7% | -8.9% | -10.4% | UKIP | 97 | 4.2% | -24.7% | -23.5% | -25.9% | from nowhere | Green | 39 | 1.7% | -1.8% | -2.5% | -3.1% | -11.5% | Total votes | 2,320 |
| 112% | 63% | 106% | 100% |
Swing Labour to Liberal Democrat 32% / 33% since 2016, 2015 and 2014 but nearly 41% since 2012 Council now 65 Labour, 6 Conservative, 3 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 2, 2018 15:40:33 GMT
My initial thoughts were to maintain priceofdawn's original post which would have given 14 additional faults (6 for Cornwall and 8 Sunderland), thereby resulting in a total of 160.3 for the week against the 166.3 Pete posted above. If princeofdawn had posted all his ultimate predictions before 9.00 am he would have incurred 136.3 faults. I am now minded to take his final figures but give 15 additional faults instead of 30 for a late entry, giving him 151.3 for the week.
The only other one where I disagree with Pete is greenrobinhood who also incurred 10 additional faults for a wrong winner in Sunderland, bringing his total for the week to 136.3.
The cap of 100 was originally introduced so that an extremely bad prediction was not penalised more than not making one. However this only works where there is only one or two rogue predictions, not like this week where approaching half the participants either got more than 100 in Sunderland or very nearly did. In this case, as in most recent examples, capping at 100 would penalise those just below whose predictions, whilst not very good to say the least, were nevertheless better than those over 100. Therefore the cap will not be applied.
Objections please by noon Sunday
There are 7 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on Thursday.
It looks as though we shall be at my daughter's part-time for a few more weeks as she is working away and we are needed to house sit. Continuing help will be very much appreciated.
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 31, 2018 11:08:40 GMT
We are at our daughter's again for a couple of days so likely to be Friday before I can post this week.
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 28, 2018 16:42:26 GMT
There are 35 Local Council by-elections during February * 2 on 1st February * 7 on 8th February * 14 on 15th and * 12 on 22nd
20 of the by-elections are for District Councils - 17 with "all out" elections in 2015, although 3 are in wards that have had by-elections since - 3 are in Councils that have "annual elections, although 1 is in a ward that had elections in 2016 and 2 where the last election was in 2015 5 are in County Councils last contested last May 4 are in Unitary Authorities last contested in 2015, although 1 has since had a by-election 3 are for Metropolitan Boroughs, 2 where the last election was in 2016 the other in 2017 2 are for Scottish Councils and 1 Welsh where the last elections were last May
Conservatives are defending 17 seats, 7 following the death of the previous Councillor, 9 a resignation and 1 Disqualification Labour is defending 8 seats, 4 from a death and 4 resignations, 1 being after election as a MP Liberal Democrats defend 3 seats, all after resignations Independents defend 4 seats, 1 after a death and 3 resignations - 1 of whom was sitting as UKIP UKIP, sitting as Independent, defend 1 seat after a resignation Residents defend 1 seat after a resignation SNP defend 1 seat following a death
Conservatives are contesting 33 of the 35 by-elections, Labour 32, Liberal Democrats 25, Greens 19, UKIP 7, SNP 2 with 10 Independents for 7 seats along with 1 each for Blue Revolution, Independent - Save our Stretton, Lincolnshire Independent, Resident, Something New and No Description - a total of 134 candidates for 35 seats.
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 27, 2018 13:30:28 GMT
False. Wight is on the county cycle, so it was in 2017. Ah yes. Good point. Whoops. The total votes cast in the by-election were about 81% of those last May.
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 26, 2018 18:43:37 GMT
There are 35 by-elections called for February and 9 already in March. There are a further 21 known vacancies where there is as yet no date for the by-election, although 6 of these will have ward elections in May. There are also 23 reported vacancies which will not be filled under the "six month" rule.
1 February - 2 Cornwall UA, Falmouth Smithick - Labour died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green Sunderland MB, Pallion - Labour died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
8 February - 7 Brighton & Hove UA, East Brighton - Labour resigned following election as MP - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green East Staffordshire, Stretton - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Ind - Save Our Stretton Eden DC, Hartside - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, Green, Ind South Staffordshire DC, Codsall South - Conservative died 3 candidates: Con, Lab, Green Staffordshire CC, Codsall - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, Green Weymouth & Portland BC, Tophill East - Independent resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, Green Weymouth & Portland BC, Tophill West - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, Green
15 February - 14 Doncaster MB, Armthorpe - Labour died - 2 candidates: Lab, Ind East Northamptonshire DC, Higham Ferrers Lancaster - Conservative died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP Epsom & Ewell BC, Ruxley - Resident resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Resident Falkirk UA, Bonnybridge & Larbert - SNP died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, SNP, Green, UKIP Halton UA, Halton Castle - Labour died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, No Description Lancashire CC, Morecambe North - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Northamptonshire CC, Higham Ferrers - Conservative died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP North East Derbyshire DC, Grassmore - Labour resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD North Norfolk DC, Worstead - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Teignbridge DC, Chudleigh - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Teignbridge DC, Dawlish Central & North East - Conservative resigned - 2 candidates: Con, LD Tendring DC, St Paul's - UKIP sitting as Independent resigned - 7 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP, 2 Ind West Oxfordshire DC, Carterton South - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD York UA, Holstead - Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green
22 February - 12 Arun DC, Marine - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Ind Boston BC, Old Leake & Wrangle - Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Blue Revolution Chichester DC, Fishbourne - Liberal Democrat resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Dorset CC, Bridport - Liberal Democrat resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green Hertfordshire CC, Goffs Oak & Bury Green - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green Lichfield DC, Stowe - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, Something New North Kesteven DC, Eagle, Swinderby & Witham St Hughes - Independent died - 3 candidates: Con, LD, Lincs Ind Scottish Borders UA, Selkirkshire - Conservative resigned following appointment as MSP - 7 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Green, 2 Ind Torfaen UA, Trevethin - Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Lab, Green, 2 Ind West Dorset DC, Bridport North - Liberal Democrat resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green West Somerset DC, Minehead South - Independent sitting as UKIP resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Wigan MB, Bryn - Independent resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Ind
1 March - 4 Basingstoke & Deane BC, Kempshott - Conservative died Clackmannanshire UA, Clackmannanshire North - SNP resigned East Devon DC, Exmouth Town - Liberal Democrat resigned Solihull MB, Blythe - Conservative resigned
8 March - 3 East Hampshire DC, Petersfield Bell Hill - Conservative resigned Harlow BC, Little Pardon & Harte Street - Labour resigned Medway UA, Rochester West - Conservative resigned on appointment to Government
15 March - 2 South Kesteven DC, Stamford St George - Conservative resigned South Kesteven DC, St Johns - Conservative resigned
Not yet called - 21 * Bolton MB, Farnworth - Labour resigned around 8 January Cheshire East UA, Bunbury - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned around 21 January Chiltern DC, Ridgeway - Independent died 29 December * Crawley BC, Ifield - Labour died 3 October Dacorum BC, Northchurch - Conservative died 1 January Fylde BC, Heyhouses - Conservative died 20 December Highland UA, Caol & Mallaig - SNP died 18 January ** Hyndburn BC, St Oswalds - UKIP died 26 October Lancaster BC, Skerton West - Labour died 8 November Leicestershire CC, Stoney Stanton & Croft - Conservative died 2 January Midlothian UA, Penicuik - Labour died 10 January New Forest DC, Milford - Conservative died 12 January Nottingham UA, Wollaton West - Conservative died 25 November * Rochford DC, Hockley - Resident resigned around 21 December * Rushmoor BC, West Heath - UKIP sitting as Independent resigned 8 January Redcar & Cleveland UA, Longbeck - Independent resigned 25 January Rutland UA, Oakham South East - Conservative resigned 8 January Staffordshire Moorlands DC, Leek West - Conservative died 25 December * Tameside MB, East Droylesden - Labour died 25 December Warrington UA, Lymm South - Conservative died 13 January Wyre BC, Breck - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned around 8 January
* elections in this ward in May ** election for this seat in May but not covered by 6 month rule
Vacancies arising under 6 month rule - 23 Barking & Dagenham LB, Heath - Labour resigned Bexley LB, Lesnes Abbey - Labour resigned Birmingham MB, Kings Norton - Labour resigned Bolton MB, Smithills - Liberal Democrat resigned Bradford MB, Little Horton - Labour resigned Brentwood BC, Herongate. Ingrave & West Horden - Localist sitting as Liberal Democrat resigned Croydon LB, Selsdon & Ballard - Conservative resigned Croydon LB, Thornton Heath - Labour sitting as Independent resigned Hounslow LB, Bedfont - Labour resigned Hounslow LB, Chiswick Riverside - Conservative resigned Hounslow LB, Hanworth Park - Labour resigned Newcastle-upon-Tyne MB, South Jesmond - Labour resigned Oldham MB, Shaw - Liberal Democrat resigned Oxford UA, Northfield Brook - Labour died Portsmouth UA, Baffin - UKIP sitting as Conservative resigned Reigate & Banstead BC, South Park & Woodhatch - Conservative resigned Sefton MB, Blundellsands - Labour resigned South Cambridgeshire DC, Bourn - Conservative resigned South Lakeland DC, Burneside - Liberal Democrat resigned Sutton LB, Stonecot - Liberal Democrat died Weymouth & Portland BC, Weymouth West - Conservative sitting as Green resigned Winchester BC, Wonston & Micheldever - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned Wirral MB, Bebington - Labour died
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 26, 2018 9:38:31 GMT
Isle of Wight, Central Wight - Conservative hold Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | since 2013 | since 2009 | Conservative | 547 | 49.7% | -25.5% | -2.6% | -5.3% | Liberal Democrat | 286 | 26.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -19.0% | Green | 143 | 13.0% | -5.9% | -9.2% | from nowhere | Labour | 101 | 9.2% | +3.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 24 | 2.2% | from nowhere | -23.4% | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,101 |
| 81% | 82% | 68% |
Swing not meaningful apart from possibly 2009 when Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~ 7% Council now 25 Conservative, 9 Independent Group, 2 Liberal Democrat, 2 Other, 1 Labour, 1 Green Really? It looks like a swing of about 26% Tory -> LD from earlier this year. If any party has not contested the previous election then swings involving it are not meaningful. Full stop.
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 26, 2018 1:09:44 GMT
Isle of Wight, Central Wight - Conservative hold Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | since 2013 | since 2009 | Conservative | 547 | 49.7% | -25.5% | -2.6% | -5.3% | Liberal Democrat | 286 | 26.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -19.0% | Green | 143 | 13.0% | -5.9% | -9.2% | from nowhere | Labour | 101 | 9.2% | +3.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 24 | 2.2% | from nowhere | -23.4% | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,101 |
| 81% | 82% | 68% |
Swing not meaningful apart from possibly 2009 when Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~ 7% Council now 25 Conservative, 9 Independent Group, 2 Liberal Democrat, 2 Other, 1 Labour, 1 Green
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 26, 2018 0:57:39 GMT
For week 4 and the month of January:Authority | Isle of Wight | Week 4 | Weeks 1 to 3 | Month total | Month total | Ward | Central Wight | position | faults | faults | position | greenrobinhood | 38.3
| 14th
| 170.8 | 209.1
| 2nd
| Robert Waller | 26.7
| 3rd
| 179.9 | 206.6
| 1st
| andrewp | 31.7
| 8th
| 196.8 | 228.5
| 3rd
| hempie | 28.0
| 4th
| 202.4 | 230.5
| 4th
| David Boothroyd | 38.0
| 13th
| 210.1 | 248.1
| 6th
| Lancastrian | 31.3
| 6th=
| 213.1 | 244.4
| 5th
| Yellow Peril | 32.7
| 11th
| 226.1 | 258.7
| 7th
| olympian95 | 40.3
| 15th
| 229.5 | 269.8
| 10th
| rickmk | 32.3
| 9th=
| 230.8 | 263.1
| 8th
| Right Leaning | 34.3
| 12th
| 232.1 | 266.4
| 9th
| Carlton43 | 28.3
| 5th
| 247.6 | 275.9
| 11th
| AJS | 44.0+5 | 16th
| 249.4 | 298.3
| 12th
| robbienicholl | 32.3
| 9th=
| 282.9 | 315.2
| 13th
| Ruggerman | 31.3
| 6th=
| 307.3 | 338.6
| 14th
| WilliamHone | 22.3
| 2nd
| 420.7 | 443.0
| 15th
| Pete Whitehead | 100 |
| 503.4 | 603.4 | 16th
| CasualObserver | 100 |
| 529.2 | 629.2 | 17th
| k9 | 18.3
| 1st
| 678.4 | 696.7
| 18th
| SirBenjamin | 100 |
| 844.3 | 944.3 | 19th
| Total | 810.0+5
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| 6,154.7 | 6,969.7
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Objection please by 5 pm Saturday. New thread for February.
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 26, 2018 0:28:46 GMT
I am waiting the for the actually voting figures for Central Wight but it looks like k9 having the lowest faults for this single contest with Robert Waller coming through to take the month, greenrobinhood second and andrewp third.
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 26, 2018 0:13:08 GMT
I think 50 percent in a 5 way ( or 4 and a half way) election is a reasonable result for the Tories. That result is probably about par for a ward of villages in middle England in the current political climate and is encouraging for the Lib Dem’s. Can anyone find the actual voting figures?
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 25, 2018 23:59:28 GMT
The result does represent a Liberal Democrat to Conservative swing of almost 7% since 2009 when the Liberal Democrats last contested the seat in straight fight.
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 25, 2018 23:36:11 GMT
There were 10 by-elections during January 2018 with 2 (20%) changing hands. The results can be summarised by: Party | Candidates | Defended | Retained | Gained | Lost | Won | retention rate | Conservative | 10 | 7 | 6
| 1 | 1 | 7 | 86% | Labour | 9 | 1 |
| 1
| 1 | 1 | 0% | Liberal Democrat | 8 | 1 | 1 |
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| 1 | 100% | Green | 7 |
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| UKIP | 4 |
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| Independent ^ | 3 | 1
| 1
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| 1 | 100%
| Total | 41 | 10
| 8 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 80% |
^ 3 candidates contested 2 by-elections Conservatives gained 1 seat from Labour but in turn lost 1 seat to Labour * gained Bolton, Hulton from Labour on nearly 7% swing since 2016, 6% since 2015, and 4% since 2012; comparison with 2014 not very meaningful - 3 member ward electing "annually", won by Labour in 2016 and 2015, UKIP in 2014 but Conservatives each election from 2004 to 2012 * lost Hertsmere, Borehamwood Cowley Hill to Labour on swing of 8% / 10% since all out elections in 2015 and 3% since 2011 but 2% to Conservative since 2012 - 3 member ward that elected 2 Labour / 1 Conservative in 2015 but Labour in every "annual" election from 2002 to 2014
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 25, 2018 14:28:15 GMT
16 entries again this wee, but with AJS getting 5 additional faults for being a few minutes late.
Isle of Wight, Central Wight: 100% Conservative hold with all but WilliamHone and K9 predicting Greens as runners-up. - majority from 19% (andrewp) to 40% (Carlton43 & Robbienichol)
The UKIP announcement about "pulling out" was made after the vast majority of postal votes would have been returned or in the post. These days postal votes can account for a large proportion of all votes, so it is possible the UKIP share may not be depleted too much by their decision.
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 24, 2018 11:06:17 GMT
Incidentally I think ricmk's description of this as a game changer was somewhat overdrawn- just UKIP catching up with what was already obvious to everybody else is hardly a game changer. I think there might have been a touch of irony in ricmk's comment! When did UKIP last win a local by-election anywhere other than Hartlepool?? Gained Tendring, Great & Little Oakley from Independent on 9 February 2017.
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 19, 2018 23:40:40 GMT
There is 1 by-election in the last week of January with 35 currently called for February and 2 already in March. There are a further 25 known vacancies where there is as yet no date for the by-election, although 9 of these will have ward elections in May. There are also 22 reported vacancies which will not be filled under the "six month" rule.
25 January - 1 Isle of Wight UA, Central Wight - Conservative resigned following election as MP - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
1 February - 2 Cornwall UA, Falmouth Smithick - Labour died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green Sunderland MB, Pallion - Labour died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
8 February - 7 Brighton & Hove UA, East Brighton - Labour resigned following election as MP - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green East Staffordshire, Stretton - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Ind - Save Our Stretton Eden DC, Hartside - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, Green, Ind South Staffordshire DC, Codsall South - Conservative died 3 candidates: Con, Lab, Green Staffordshire CC, Codsall - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, Green Weymouth & Portland BC, Tophill East - Independent resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, Green Weymouth & Portland BC, Tophill West - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, Green
15 February - 14 Doncaster MB, Armthorpe - Labour died - 2 candidates: Lab, Ind East Northamptonshire DC, Higham Ferrers Lancaster - Conservative died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP Epsom & Ewell BC, Ruxley - Resident resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Resident Falkirk UA, Bonnybridge & Larbert - SNP died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, SNP, Green, UKIP Halton UA, Halton Castle - Labour died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, No Description Lancashire CC, Morecambe North - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Northamptonshire CC, Higham Ferrers - Conservative died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP North East Derbyshire DC, Grassmore - Labour resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD North Norfolk DC, Worstead - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Teignbridge DC, Chudleigh - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Teignbridge DC, Dawlish Central & North East - Conservative resigned - 2 candidates: Con, LD Tendring DC, St Paul's - UKIP sitting as Independent resigned - 7 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP, 2 Ind West Oxfordshire DC, Carterton South - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD York UA, Holstead - Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green
22 February - 12 Arun DC, Marine - Conservative died Boston BC, Old Leake & Wrangle - Conservative resigned Chichester DC, Fishbourne - Liberal Democrat resigned Dorset CC, Bridport - Liberal Democrat resigned Hertfordshire CC, Goffs Oak & Bury Green - Conservative died Lichfield DC, Stowe - Conservative resigned North Kesteven DC, Eagle, Swinderby & Witham St Hughes - Independent died Scottish Borders UA, Selkirkshire - Conservative resigned following appointment as MSP Torfaen UA, Trevethin - Labour resigned West Dorset DC, Bridport North - Liberal Democrat resigned West Somerset DC, Minehead South - Independent sitting as UKIP resigned Wigan MB, Bryn - Independent resigned
1 March - 2 Clackmannanshire UA, Clackmannanshire North - SNP resigned East Devon DC, Exmouth Town - Liberal Democrat resigned
Not yet called - 25 * Basingstoke & Deane BC, Kempshott - Conservative died 3 December * Bolton MB, Farnworth - Labour resigned around 8 January Chiltern DC, Ridgeway - Independent died 29 December * Crawley BC, Ifield - Labour died 3 October Dacorum BC, Northchurch - Conservative died 1 January East Hampshire DC, Petersfield Bell Hill - Conservative resigned around end of September Fylde BC, Heyhouses - Conservative died 20 December * Harlow BC, Little Parndon & Harte Street - Labour resigned 11 January Highland UA, Caol & Mallaig - SNP died 18 January ** Hyndburn BC, St Oswalds - UKIP died 26 October Lancaster BC, Skerton West - Labour died 8 November Leicestershire CC, Stoney Stanton & Croft - Conservative died 2 January Medway UA, Rochester West - Conservative resigned on appointment as Government Whip 12 January Midlothian UA, Penicuik - Labour died 10 January New Forest DC, Milford - Conservative died 12 January Nottingham UA, Wollaton West - Conservative died 25 November * Rochford DC, Hockley - Resident resigned around 21 December * Rushmoor BC, West Heath - UKIP sitting as Independent resigned 8 January Rutland UA, Oakham South East - Conservative resigned 8 January * Solihull MB, Blythe - Conservative resigned around 8 January South Kesteven DC, Stamford St John's - Conservative died around 6 January Staffordshire Moorlands DC, Leek West - Conservative died 25 December * Tameside MB, East Droylesden - Labour died 25 December Warrington UA, Lymm South - Conservative died 13 January Wyre BC, Breck - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned around 8 January
* elections in this ward in May ** election for this seat in May but not covered by 6 month rule
Vacancies arising under 6 month rule - 22 Barking & Dagenham LB, Heath - Labour resigned Bexley LB, Lesnes Abbey - Labour resigned Birmingham MB, Kings Norton - Labour resigned Bolton MB, Smithills - Liberal Democrat resigned Bradford MB, Little Horton - Labour resigned Brentwood BC, Herongate. Ingrave & West Horden - Localist sitting as Liberal Democrat resigned Croydon LB, Selsdon & Ballard - Conservative resigned Hounslow LB, Bedfont - Labour resigned Hounslow LB, Chiswick Riverside - Conservative resigned Hounslow LB, Hanworth Park - Labour resigned Newcastle-upon-Tyne MB, South Jesmond - Labour resigned Oldham MB, Shaw - Liberal Democrat resigned Oxford UA, Northfield Brook - Labour died Portsmouth UA, Baffin - UKIP sitting as Conservative resigned Reigate & Banstead BC, South Park & Woodhatch - Conservative resigned Sefton MB, Blundellsands - Labour resigned South Cambridgeshire DC, Bourn - Conservative resigned South Lakeland DC, Burneside - Liberal Democrat resigned Sutton LB, Stonecot - Liberal Democrat died Weymouth & Portland BC, Weymouth West - Conservative sitting as Green resigned Winchester BC, Wonston & Micheldever - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned Wirral MB, Bebington - Labour died
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