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Post by middleenglander on Mar 29, 2018 22:35:13 GMT
There have been 23 by-elections during March 2018 with 12 (52%) changing hands. The results can be summarised by: Party | Contested | Defended | Retained | Gained | Lost | Won | retention rate | Conservative | 23 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 42% | Labour | 22 | 6 | 4 | 3
| 2 | 7 | 67% | Liberal Democrat | 18 | 1 | 1 | 2
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| 3 | 100% | SNP | 2 | 1
| 1
| 1
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| 2 | 100% | Green | 13 |
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| UKIP | 5 | 1
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| 1
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| 0%
| Independent | 7 | 2 |
| 1
| 2 | 1
| 0% | Localist ^ | 2 |
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| 1
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| 1 |
| No Description | 1 |
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| 1
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| 1
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| Others ^^ | 1 |
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| Total | 94 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 23 | 48% |
^ Farnworth & Kearsley Residents and Thurrock Independent ^^ Bus Pass Elvis (Nottingham) Conservatives gained 3 seats, 2 from Independents and 1 from UKIP but lost 7 seats, 3 to Labour, 2 to Liberal Democrats with 1 each to Independent and No Description - gained Chiltern, Ridgeway from an Independent with a 5% majority over Labour with Liberal Democrat a further 4% behind single member ward where previous councillor was elected as Independent / Resident (in 2003) with shares between 61%(2015) and 84% (2003) - gained Redcar & Cleveland, Longbeck from an Independent with 33% share and 6% majority over Liberal Democrat with Labour 4% further behind 3 member ward, Conservative / Independent / UKIP in 2015, Liberal Democrat / Conservative / Labour 2011 and 2 Conservatives / Independent 2007 & 2003 - gained Thurrock, Ockendon from UKIP sitting as an Independent on drawn lots against Labour with Thurrock Independents (formerly UKIP) third 3 member ward with UKIP winning 2016, 2015 & 2014, Conservative 2012, 2010, 2008 & 2007, Labour 2011 & 2006 with 2 Conservative / 1 Labour in 2004 - lost Medway, Rochester West to Labour by 8% majority on a swing of 15% since 2015 and 13% since 2011 2 member ward electing Conservatives in 2015, 2011, 2007 and 2003 with majorities some 20% plus - lost Nottingham, Wollaton West to Labour by 5% on small swing to Labour since 2015 and 10% since 2011 but 4% to Conservative since 2014 by-election 3 member ward electing 1 Labour / 2 Conservative in 2015, 3 Conservatives in 2011, 2007 and 2003 but Labour won 2014 by-election - lost Staffordshire Moorlands, Leek West to Labour - high personal vote? - who had a 10% majority on a circa 11% swing since 2015 having not contested 2011 3 member ward electing 3 Conservatives in 2015, 2 Conservative / 1 Liberal Democrat 2011 and 2007 with 3 Liberal Democrats in 2003 - lost Aylesbury Vale, Central & Walton to Liberal Democrat on a majority of 9½% and a swing of around 10% since 2015 2 member ward electing Conservatives in 2015; previously Liberal Democrat area although Conservative elected to single member Central ward in 2011 - lost Dacorum, Northchurch to a Liberal Democrat who had a 31% majority on a swing in excess of 35% since 2015, 2011 and 2007 single member ward represented by the same Conservative since created in 2003 - lost East Hampshire, Petersfield Bell Hill to an Independent who had a 33% share and 4% majority over Liberal Democrat with Conservative 2% further behind single member ward electing Conservatives in 2015 (47% Share), 2011 (57% share), 2007 (53% share) and 2003 (44% share) - lost Rutland, Oakham South East to No Description by 19% majority in a straight fight 2 member ward electing Independent / Conservative in 2015, 2 Conservatives in 2011 and 2007 and Conservative / Independent unopposed in 2003 Labour gained the 3 seats from Conservatives but lost 1 each to SNP and a localist resident group - lost Midlothian, Penicuik to SNP where there was a 2% swing SNP to Conservative since 2017 with some 16% since 2012 and 10% since 2010 3 member ward electing Conservative / Labour / SNP in 2017, 2 SNP/ 1 Labour in 2012 and Labour / Liberal Democrat / SNP in 2007 - lost Bolton Farnworth to Farnworth & Kearsley Residents by a majority of over 9% who had not contested a seat previously 3 member ward won by Labour at each election since created in 2004
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 29, 2018 22:08:28 GMT
Knowsley, Page Moss - Labour hold
Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2016 "top" | since 2016 "average" | Labour | 657 | 78.2% | +2.4% | +3.7% | Green | 74 | 8.8% | -15.4% | -16.6% | UKIP | 68 | 8.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 41 | 4.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 840 |
| 53% | 56% |
Swing Green to Labour 6½% / 10% since 2016 Council now 42 Labour, 3 Liberal Democrat
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 29, 2018 21:01:58 GMT
For week 5:Authority | Week 1 - 4 original | Week 4 amendment | Week 1 - 4 amended
| Knowsley | Month | Month | Ward | faults | faults | faults | Page Moss | faults | position
| Robert Waller | 602.2 |
| 602.2 | 10.4
| 612.6
| 1st
| andrewp | 635.2 | -5 | 630.2 | 13.6
| 643.8
| 2nd
| ricmk
| 651.1 | -5 | 646.1 | 12.6+10 | 668.7
| 3rd
| Right Leaning
| 659.9 | -5 | 654.9 | 15.8
| 670.8
| 4th
| Olympian95
| 681.7 | -5 | 676.7 | 58.6
| 735.4
| 7th
| robbienicholl | 684.5 | -5 | 679.5 | 13.8
| 693.3
| 5th
| Yellow Peril
| 696.4 | -5 | 691.4 | 14.2
| 705.7
| 6th
| ajs | 712.2 |
| 712.2 | 100 | 812.2 | 11th
| David Boothroyd
| 737.6 | -5 | 732.6 | 12.0
| 744.6
| 8th
| Lancastrian
| 739.2 |
| 739.2 | 11.8
| 751.1
| 9th
| hempie
| 748.1 |
| 748.1 | 10.2
| 758.3
| 10th
| greenrobinhood
| 796.7 | -5 | 791.7 | 22.6
| 814.4
| 12th
| dibs | 835.2 | -5 | 830.2 | 100 | 930.2 | 13th
| priceofdawn | 969.7 | -5 | 964.7 | 25.6
| 990.3
| 14th
| k9 | 1,252.4 |
| 1,252.4 | 42.6
| 1,295.0
| 15th
| Total faults
| 11,402.4 | -50 | 11,352.4 | 463.8+10
| 11.826.3
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Objections please by 5 pm Saturday New thread for the 10 April by-elections
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 29, 2018 17:46:58 GMT
13 entries this week with k9 reappearing but nothing from ajs and dibs. ricmk gets 10 additional faults for being almost 1½ hours late.
Knowsley, Page Moss: 100% Labour hold with majority from 18% (olympian95 over Green) to 86% (priceofdawn over UKIP) - 5 have Green second, 4 Conservative and 2 UKIP whilst 2 have Conservative and Green joint second.
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 28, 2018 15:54:42 GMT
There are currently 5 known vacancies that will not be contested on 3 May
17 May - 3 Lancaster BC, Skerton West - Labour died Lancaster BC, University & Scotforth Rural (2 seats) - Labour and Green sitting as Labour both resigned
Not yet called - 2 Mid Devon DC, Cranmore - Conservative died 26 March Oldham MB, Hollinwood - Labour died around 18 March
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 28, 2018 15:29:09 GMT
The two elections for 3 seats on Lancaster Council will be held on 17 May.
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 28, 2018 10:40:36 GMT
No, his term is until 2019 and I am told he did not resign in February.
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 28, 2018 10:31:09 GMT
The is no vacancy in Wyre, Breck even though it was reported Peter Gibson, Conservative sitting as Independent, had resigned back in early January. The phone system at Lancaster Council is down / playing up and I cannot get through to the Elections Office to ascertain the status of the three vacancies.
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 28, 2018 10:05:35 GMT
I have managed to get through to Burnley Council and there appears to be no casual vacancy in Queensgate; the website does however say Mohammed Ishtiaq's term of office was 07 / 05 / 2015 to 21 / 02 / 2018.
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 28, 2018 0:08:28 GMT
There are now 48 by-elections on 3 May 2018 (13 single seat contests and 35 "double" elections) confirmed by the Notice of Election with a further 7 known vacancies where up to 5 may have already been called but not yet on the website; the vacancies in Burnley BC, Queensgate and Oldham MB, Hollinwood are not planned to be filled on 3 May according to the Notices of Election.
The current status of all the known vacancies is: - ^ indicates arising from the death of the previous councillor
Conservative defending - 26 - 10 single seat by-elections ^ Aylesbury Vale DC, Quainton Braintree DC, Bocking North Braintree DC, Hatfield Peveral & Terling Daventry DC, Walgrave Epping Forest DC, Moreton & Fyfield ^ Leicestershire CC, Stoney Stanton & Croft St Edmunsbury BC, Haverhill East St Edmunsbury BC, Haverhill North Swale BC, Sheppey East Weymouth & Portland BC, Weymouth West - 15 "double" elections Cherwell DC, Cropedy, Sibfords & Wroxton Epping Forest DC, Waltham Abbey Honey Lane Havant BC, Hayling West Kirklees MB, Birstall & Birkinshaw Preston BC, Greyfriars Reading BC, Kentwood Reigate & Banstead BC, Horley West Runnymede BC, Chertsey South & Row Town Runnymede BC, Foxhills Trafford MB, Altrincham Walsall MB, Paddock ^ Welwyn & Hatfield BC, Hatfield Villages Welwyn & Hatfield BC, Northaw & Cuffley West Oxfordshire DC, Freeland & Handborough Wirral MB, Hoylake & Meols - 1 other known vacancy Wyre BC, Breck - sitting as Independent resigned around 8 January
Labour defending - 19 - 1 single seat by-election ^ Cheshire West & Chester, Ellesmere Port Town - 13 "double" elections Cambridge BC, East Chesterton Gateshead MB, Ryton, Crookhill & Stella Halton BC, Halton View Liverpool MB, Knotty Ash ^ North East Lincolnshire UA, Immingham North Hertfordshire DC, Letchworth Grange ^ Oldham MB, Chadderton Central Reading BC, Church Reading BC, Katesgrove Sandwell MB, Greets Green & Lyng Sandwell MB, St Pauls Sefton MB, Ford Worcester MB, Warndon - 5 other known vacancies Burnley BC, Queensgate - resigned 21 February ^ Lancaster BC, Skerton West - died 8 November Lancaster BC, University & Scotforth Rural - resigned around 20 March ^ Oldham MB, Hollinwood - died around 18 March ^ Wolverhampton MB, Graisley - died around 22 February
Liberal Democrat defending - 4 - 1 single seat by-election Hertfordshire CC, St Albans North - 3 "double" election Gosport BC, Leeslands Milton Keynes BC, Newport Pagnell South Welwyn & Hatfield BC, Welwyn Green & Hatfield South
UKIP defending - 2 - 1 single seat by-election ^ Torridge DC, Bideford East - 1 "double" election * Rushmoor BC, West Heath
Other Parties - 4 - 3 "double" elections Cheltenham BC, Leckhampton (Independent) Epping Forest DC, Loughton Broadway (Loughton Residents Association) Rochford DC, Hockley (Resident) -1 other known vacancy Lancaster MB, University & Scotforth Rural - Green sitting as Labour resigned around 20 March
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 25, 2018 23:35:18 GMT
Thank you for your thoughts on how to determine the additional faults for a wrong winner in Ockendon. Those responding all disagreed with my interpretation. But then many more did not object.
The aim of the competition is to predict the %age share of the votes and consequently who wins - we have not had a tie before. In this case the Official Result published by the Returning Officer has the Conservative and Labour candidates each polling 696 votes with the Thurrock Independent 150 plus behind. These are the votes used to calculate the shares and therefore the faults. If the official result had given the Conservatives one extra vote, that would have been included in the share calculation - but it was not how the result was published. After the counting of votes we did not know who had won, but it was either Conservative or Labour. That is therefore the rationale for giving those who predicted a Conservative win 5 faults - if anyone had predicted a Labour win they would also have got 5 faults.
The winner was determined by the Returning Officer picking one of two ballot papers from a box. That is when a new Councillor was elected.
However, I am aware of the objections and am minded to withdrew the 5 faults from the 10 entrants who predicted a Conservative win unless there is a significant adverse reaction. I will not change the table above - I do not think anyone's position has been affected - but will credit later this week when there is just one by-election.
The 10 faults for a wrong winner was a number of modifications to the rules made in the light of experience shortly after the competition started. There were in fact a number of instances where entrants were being highly placed even though they were getting several winners wrong. I consider this rule continues to be appropriate as long as the completion continues in its present form.
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 24, 2018 1:02:13 GMT
There is 1 by-election in the last week of March and 10 in April ahead of the 3 May annual elections.
29 March - 1 Knowsley MB, Page Moss - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, Green, UKIP
5 April - 4 Fylde BC, Heyhouses - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green Highland UA, Caol & Mallaig - SNP died - 6 candidates: Con, LD, SNP, 3 Ind New Forest DC, Milford - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Taunton Deane BC, Wiveliscombe & West Deane - Independent resigned - 3 candidates: Con, LD, Green
12 April - 3 Chichester DC, Rogate - Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green St Edmundsbury BC, St Olave's - Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Ind South Northamptonshire DC, Middleton Cheney - Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green
19 April - 3 Perth & Kinross UA, Highland - Conservative died - 7 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Green, 2 Ind Warrington UA, Lymm South - Conservative died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP West Berkshire UA, Thatcham West - Conservative disqualified for non-attendance - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 23, 2018 18:29:00 GMT
For week 4:Authority | Aylesbury Vale | Bassetlaw | Cheshire East
| Chiltern | Midlothian | Staffordshire Moorlands | Thurrock | Week 4 | Ward | Central & Walton | Worksop South East
| Bunbury
| Ridgeway | Penicuik
| Leek West | Ockendon | faults
| ajs
| 12.8
| 31.7
| 43.0
| 11.9
| 6.8
| 50.1+10
| 18.8+10
| 195.1
| andrewp
| 11.5
| 14.6
| 4.3
| 6.4
| 22.5+10
| 40.1+10
| 11.6+5
| 136.0
| David Boothroyd
| 27.3+10
| 16.6
| 5.7
| 26.5+10
| 10.8+10
| 46.1+10
| 9.6+5
| 187.7
| dibs
| 44.8+10
| 34.6
| 45.0
| 37.9
| 19.7+10
| 44.1+10
| 22.4+5
| 283.5
| greenrobinhood
| 17.6
| 49.7
| 39.0
| 47.6
| 8.5+10
| 56.1+10
| 32.4+5
| 275.9
| hempie | 10.4
| 27.7
| 17.0
| 19.9
| 12.5+10
| 44.1+10
| 16.8+10
| 178.4
| k9
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 700
| Lancastrian
| 11.9
| 34.6
| 25.0
| 10.4+10
| 18.8+10
| 38.1+10
| 20.8+10
| 199.6
| Olympian95
| 14.4
| 40.6
| 2.3
| 43.6
| 11.2
| 34.1+10
| 2.4+5
| 163.6
| priceofdawn
| 64.8+10
| 13.7
| 48.7
| 30.4+10
| 19.8+3 | 60.1+10
| 6.4+5
| 281.9
| ricmk
| 19.5
| 14.6
| 25.3
| 23.5
| 12.8
| 44.1+10
| 16.4+5
| 171.2
| Right Leaning
| 12.4
| 34.6
| 17.3
| 9.6
| 6.5
| 54.1+10
| 10.8+5
| 160.3
| robbienicoll
| 14.4
| 5.7
| 11.7
| 25.9
| 8.5
| 46.1+10
| 6.4+5
| 133.7
| Robert Waller | 17.9
| 29.7
| 9.0
| 12.4+10
| 12.5
| 48.1+10
| 22.4+10
| 181.9
| Yellow Peril
| 13.4
| 24.6
| 19.7
| 7.9
| 12.5+10
| 30.1+10
| 10.8+5
| 143.9
| Total faults
| 393.0+30
| 472.7
| 413.1
| 414.0+40
| 283.5+3+70
| 735.7+140
| 307.8+90
| 3,392.8
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and for the month to date:
| Weeks 1 -3 | Week 4 | Week 4 | Weeks 1 - 4 | Weeks 1 - 4 |
| faults | faults | position | faults | position | ajs | 517.1 | 195.1
| 10th
| 712.2 | 8th | andrewp | 499.2 | 136.0 | 2nd | 635.2
| 2nd
| David Boothroyd | 549.9 | 187.7
| 9th
| 737.6
| 9th
| dibs | 551.7 | 283.5
| 14th
| 835.2
| 13th
| greenrobinhood | 520.8 | 275.9
| 12th
| 796.7
| 12th
| hempie | 569.7 | 178.4
| 7th
| 748.1
| 11th
| k9 | 552.4 | 700 |
| 1,252.4 | 15th
| Lancastrian | 539.7 | 199.6
| 11th
| 739.2
| 10th
| Olympian95 | 518.1 | 163.6
| 5th
| 681.7
| 5th
| priceofdawn | 687.9 | 281.9
| 13th
| 969.7
| 14th
| ricmk | 479.9 | 171.2
| 6th
| 651.1
| 3rd
| Right Leaning | 499.6 | 160.3
| 4th
| 659.9
| 4th
| robbienicoll | 550.8 | 133.7
| 1st
| 684.5
| 6th
| Robert Waller | 420.3 | 181.9
| 8th
| 602.2
| 1st
| Yellow Peril | 552.5 | 143.9
| 3rd
| 696.4
| 7th
| Total | 8,009.6 | 3,392.7
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| 11,402.4
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Objections please by noon Sunday when I will consider the 5 fault penalty given in Ockendon, based on the Official result showing 696 votes for each of the Conservative and Labour candidates, in the light of all representations. There is just one election next Thursday - the final week of March. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 on Thursday.
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 23, 2018 17:14:40 GMT
Aylesbury Vale, Central & Walton - Liberal Democrat gain from ConservativeParty | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Liberal Democrat | 551 | 40.9% | +18.1% | +18.6% | Conservative | 425 | 31.5% | -1.1% | -2.5% | Labour | 267 | 19.8% | +0.9% | +2.1% | Green | 61 | 4.5% | -4.0% | -3.8% | Independent | 44 | 3.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -17.2% | -17.7% | Total votes |
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| 41% | 45% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 9½% / 10½% since 2015 Council now 41 Conservative, 11 Liberal Democrat, 4 Independent, 2 Labour, 1 Vacant Bassetlaw, Worksop South East - Labour hold Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2014 | since 2012 | since 2011 | Labour | 1,004 | 77.3% | +21.1% | +23.3% | +10.7% | -10.0% | -8.1% | Conservative | 197 | 15.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +9.3% | +2.5% | +0.6% | Liberal Democrat | 98 | 7.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +4.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -25.2% | -26.5% | -24.4% |
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| Green |
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| -10.3% | -10.8% |
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| Independent |
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| -8.3% | -8.7% |
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| Total votes | 1,299 |
| 41% | 43% | 81% | 92% | 68% |
Swing not meaningful apart from possibly 2012 and 2011 when Labour to Conservative ~ 6% and 4½% respectively Council now 32 Labour, 12 Conservative, 4 Independent Cheshire East, Bunbury - Conservative hold Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 | since 2011 | Conservative | 663 | 53.3% | -16.9% | -17.6% | Liberal Democrat | 342 | 27.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 178 | 14.3% | -3.4% | -14.7% | Green | 60 | 4.8% | -7.2% | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,243 |
| 47% | 75% |
Swing Council now 51 Conservative, 16 Labour, 13 Various Independent / Localist, 2 Liberal Democrat Chiltern, Ridgeway - Conservative gain from IndependentParty | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 | since 2011 | since 2007 | Conservative | 268 | 38.2% | +16.8% | +25.5% | +27.0% | Labour | 230 | 32.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 203 | 29.0% | +11.7% | +17.2% | +15.5% | Independent |
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| -61.3% | -72.1% | -75.4% | UKIP |
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| -3.4% |
| Total votes | 701 |
| 53% | 76% | 92% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 38 Conservative, 2 Liberal Democrat Midlothian, Penicuik - SNP gain from Labourbased on first preferences Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | since 2012 | since 2007 | SNP | 1,663 | 35.0% | -0.2% | -12.1% | +0.4% | Conservative | 1,433 | 30.2% | +4.0% | +19.7% | +19.7% | Labour | 1,310 | 27.6% | +2.0% | -2.5% | +4.2% | Green | 344 | 7.2% | +1.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat |
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| -7.3% | -12.4% | -29.7% | Solidarity |
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| -1.0% | Socialist |
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| -0.9% | Total votes | 4,750 |
| 82% | 105% | 71% |
Swing SNP to Conservative 2.1% since May and, less meaningful, ~ 16% since 2012 and ~ 10% since 2007 Council now 7 SNP, 6 Labour, 5 Conservative Staffordshire Moorlands, Leek West - Labour gain from ConservativeParty | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Labour | 487 | 42.9% | +22.6% | +21.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 370 | 32.6% | -1.1% | +0.9% | -6.7% | -9.8% | Liberal Democrat | 218 | 19.2% | +8.1% | +7.5% | -14.1% | -10.3% | Independent | 61 | 5.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | MDA * |
|
| -14.7% | -15.4% | -27.6% | -28.1% | Green |
|
| -11.7% | -12.4% |
|
| Previous Independents |
|
| -8.5% | -7.4% |
|
| Total votes | 1,136 |
| 33% | 35% | 66% | 80% |
* Moorlands Democratic Alliance Swing Conservative to Labour ~ 12% / 10% since 2015 Council now 33 Conservative, 9 Labour, 8 Independent, 2 Liberal Democrat, 2 UKIP, 2 Moorlands Democratic Alliance Thurrock, Ockendon - Conservative gain from UKIP sitting as Independent on drawing of lots
Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | Conservative | 696+1 | 36.2% | +7.8% | +7.4% | +6.0% | -7.3% | Labour | 696 | 36.2% | +11.2% | +9.1% | +14.9% | -2.9% | Thurrock Independent | 531 | 27.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
|
| -46.5% | -44.1% | -46.0% | -15.5% | Liberal Democrat |
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| -2.6% | -1.9% | Total vote | 1,923+1 |
| 88% | 43% | 75% | 93% |
Swing not particularly meaningful
Council now 19 Conservative, 16 Thurrock Independent, 14 Labour
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 22, 2018 15:06:56 GMT
14 entries this week with nothing from k9. priceofdawn gets 3 additional faults for adding to 97% in Midlothian.
Aylesbury Vale, Central & Walton: 11 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, David Boothroyd, Dibs & priceofdawn Conservative hold Bassetlaw, Worksop South East: 100% Labour hold with majority over Conservative ranging from 15% (greenrobinhood) to 57% (robbienicoll) Cheshire East, Bunbury: 100% Conservative hold, majority from 5% (ricmk over Liberal Democrat) to 48% (priceofdawn over Labour) Chiltern, Ridgeway: 10 Conservative gain from Independent, David Boothroyd, Lancastrian, priceofdawn & Robert Waller Labour gain Midlothian, Penicuik: 7 SNP first preferences lead, andrewp, David Boothroyd, Lancastrian & Yellow Peril Labour, dibs, greenrobinhood & hempie Conservative Staffordshire Moorlands, Leek West: 100% Conservative hold, majority over Labour from 4% (andrewp) to 33% (priceofdawn) Thurrock, Ockendon: 10 Conservative gain from UKIP with ajs, hempie, Lancastrian & Robert Waller Thurrock Independent gain / hold
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 21, 2018 18:10:55 GMT
At the May elections in 2014 and 2010, the same stage of the local council electoral cycle as now, there were 70 by-elections in 2014 (30 single and 40 multi) and 83 in 2010 (38 single and 45 multi). At the present time there are 40 known vacancies with the potential for the by-election to be held on the 3 May.
Part of the reason for the current lower number in 2018 may be that there are likely to be 77 by-elections in the January to April period compared to 46 in 2014 and 41 in 2010.
The current known vacancies which may be held on 3 May are: - * indicates "double" election and ^ arising from the death of the previous councillor
Conservative defending - 18 ^ Aylesbury Vale DC, Quainton Braintree DC, Bocking North Braintree DC, Hatfield Peveral & Terling Epping Forest DC, Moreton & Fyfield * Epping Forest DC, Waltham Abbey Honey Lane ^ Leicestershire CC, Stoney Stanton & Croft * Preston BC, Greyfriars * Runnymede BC, Chertsey South & Row Town * Runnymede BC, Foxhills St Edmunsbury BC, Haverhill East St Edmunsbury BC, Haverhill North Swale BC, Sheppey East * Walsall MB, Paddock *^ Welwyn & Hatfield BC, Hatfield Villages * Welwyn & Hatfield BC, Northaw & Cuffley Weymouth & Portland BC, Weymouth West * Wirral MB, Hoylake & Meols Wyre BC, Breck
Labour defending - 14 * Burnley BC, Queensgate ^ Cheshire West & Chester, Ellesmere Port Town * Gateshead MB, Ryton, Crookhill & Stella ^ Lancaster BC, Skerton West Lancaster BC, University & Scotforth Rural * Liverpool MB, Knotty Ash *^ North East Lincolnshire UA, Immingham *^ Oldham MB, Chadderton Central *^ Oldham MB, Hollinwood * Sandwell MB, Greets Green & Lyng * Sandwell MB, St Pauls * Sefton MB, Ford *^ Wolverhampton MB, Graiseley * Worcester MB, Warndon
Liberal Democrat defending - 2 Hertfordshire CC, St Albans North * Welwyn & Hatfield BC, Welwyn Green & Hatfield South
UKIP defending - 2 * Rushmoor BC, West Heath ^ Torridge DC, Bideford East
Other - 4 * Cheltenham BC, Leckhampton (Independent) * Epping Forest DC, Loughton Broadway (Loughton Residents Association) Lancaster MB, University & Scotforth Rural (Green sitting as Labour) * Rochford DC, Hockley (Resident)
To be periodically updated
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 20, 2018 11:48:41 GMT
Bideford East is in fact on 3 May.
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 18, 2018 12:49:44 GMT
Redcar & Cleveland, Longbeck - Conservative gain from Independent
Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Conservative | 494 | 32.7% | +7.1% | +4.9% | +4.0% | +6.4% | Liberal Democrat | 397 | 26.3% | +12.3% | +11.1% | -3.9% | -3.7% | Labour | 337 | 22.3% | +4.0% | +4.5% | -6.1% | -7.4% | Independent * | 282 | 18.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Previous Independents |
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| -22.3% | -17.7% | -12.7% | -14.0% | UKIP |
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| -19.8% | -21.5% |
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| Total votes | 1,510 |
| 28% | 30% | 56% | 62% |
* stood as Independent in 2015 polling slightly more than Liberal Democrat coming 7 out of 9 and was elected in 2011 as highest placed Labour candidate Swing not particularly meaningful since 2015 but Labour to Conservative ~ 5 % / 7% since 2011 as well as ~ 4% / 5% Liberal Democrat to Conservative Council now 28 Labour, 11 Conservative, 11 Liberal Democrat, 9 various Independent South Kesteven, Stamford St George's - Conservative hold Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Conservative | 309 | 45.6% | +12.2% | +15.9% | Independent * | 174 | 25.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 114 | 16.8% | +0.9% | -0.5% | Liberal Democrat | 68 | 10.0%
| from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 13 | 1.9% | -10.5% | -11.7% | UKIP |
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| -19.4% | -21.2% | Stamford Group |
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| -18.9% | -18.2% | Total votes | 678 |
| 24% | 27% |
* stood for Stamford Group of Independents in 2015 Swing if meaningful Stamford Group of Independents / Independent to Conservative 2¾% / 4¼% since 2015 Council now 42 Conservative, 10 various Independents, 3 Labour, 1 unaligned South Kesteven, Stamford St John's - Conservative hold Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Conservative | 327 | 39.4% | -9.7% | -9.0% | Independent | 267 | 32.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 156 | 18.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 66 | 7.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 15 | 1.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Stamford Group |
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| -29.0% | -29.2% | UKIP |
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| -21.9% | -22.5% | Total votes | 831 |
| 29% | 30% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 42 Conservative, 10 various Independents, 3 Labour, 1 unaligned
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 16, 2018 18:12:06 GMT
There are 8 by-elections during the last two weeks of March and 11 already in April. There are a further 20 known vacancies where there is as yet no date for the by-election, although 8 9 of these will have ward elections in May and are now very unlikely to be contested before then. There are also 30 reported vacancies which will not be filled under the "six month" rule.
22 March - 7 Aylesbury Vale DC, Central & Walton - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, Ind Bassetlaw DC, Worksop South East - Labour resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Cheshire East UA, Bunbury - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green Chiltern DC, Ridgeway - Independent died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Midlothian UA, Pencuik - Labour died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, SNP, Green Staffordshire Moorlands DC, Leek West - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Ind Thurrock UA, Ockendon - UKIP sitting as Independent resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, Thurrock Ind
29 March - 1 Knowsley MB, Page Moss - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, Green, UKIP
5 April - 4 Fylde BC, Heyhouses - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green Highland UA, Caol & Mallaig - SNP died - 6 candidates: Con, LD, SNP, 3 Ind New Forest DC, Milford - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Taunton Deane BC, Wiveliscombe & West Deane - Independent resigned - 3 candidates: Con, LD, Green
12 April - 4 Chichester DC, Rogate - Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green St Edmundsbury BC, St Olave's - Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Ind South Northamptonshire DC, Middleton Cheney - Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green
Torridge DC, Bideford East - UKIP died
19 April - 3 Perth & Kinross UA, Highland - Conservative died - 7 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Green, 2 Ind Warrington UA, Lymm South - Conservative died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP West Berkshire UA, Thatcham West - Conservative disqualified for non-attendance - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
Not yet called - 20 Aylesbury Vale DC, Quainton - Conservative died 22 February Braintree DC, Hatfield Peveral & Terling - Conservative resigned around 7 February * Burnley BC, Queensgate - Labour resigned on 21 February Cheshire West & Chester, Ellesmere Port Town - Labour died 9 February * Crawley BC, Ifield - Labour died 3 October * Gateshead MB, Ryton, Crookhill & Stella - Labour resigned around 15 March Hertfordhire CC, St Albans North - Liberal Democrat resigned around 14 March ** Hyndburn BC, St Oswalds - UKIP died 26 October Lancaster BC, Skerton West - Labour died 8 November Leicestershire CC, Stoney Stanton & Croft - Conservative died 2 January * North East Lincolnshire UA, Immingham - Labour died around 14 March * Rochford DC, Hockley - Resident resigned around 21 December * Rushmoor BC, West Heath - UKIP sitting as Independent resigned 8 January St Edmundsbury BC, Haverhill East - Conservative resigned around 26 February St Edmundsbury BC, Haverhill North - Conservative resigned around 26 February Welwyn & Hatfield BC, Hatfield Villages - Conservative died 10 February Weymouth & Portland BC, Weymouth West - Conservative sitting as Green resigned 20 December * Wolverhampton MB, Graiseley - Labour died around 22 February * Worcester BC, Warndon - Labour resigned 14 March Wyre BC, Breck - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned around 8 January
* elections in this ward in May ** election for this seat in May but not covered by 6 month rule
Vacancies arising under 6 month rule - 30 Barking & Dagenham LB, Heath - Labour resigned Bexley LB, Lesnes Abbey - Labour resigned Birmingham MB, Kings Norton - Labour resigned Bolton MB, Smithills - Liberal Democrat resigned Bradford MB, Little Horton - Labour resigned Brentwood BC, Herongate, Ingrave & West Horndon - Localist sitting as Liberal Democrat resigned Croydon LB, Selsdon & Ballard - Conservative resigned Croydon LB, Thornton Heath - Labour sitting as Independent resigned Dudley MB, Halesowen South - Conservative disqualified for non-attendance Eastleigh BC, Netley Abbey - Liberal Democrat resigned Enfield LB, Ponders End - Labour resigned Epping Forest DC, Chipping Ongar, Greensted & Marden Ash - Liberal Democrat died Hillingdon LB, Botwell - Labour died Hounslow LB, Bedfont - Labour resigned Hounslow LB, Chiswick Riverside - Conservative resigned Hounslow LB, Hanworth Park - Labour resigned Manchester MB, Chorlton - Labour died Newcastle-upon-Tyne MB, South Jesmond - Labour resigned Oldham MB, Shaw - Liberal Democrat resigned Oxford UA, Northfield Brook - Labour died Portsmouth UA, Baffin - UKIP sitting as Conservative resigned Reigate & Banstead BC, South Park & Woodhatch - Conservative resigned Richmond LB, Heathfield - Conservative resigned Sefton MB, Blundellsands - Labour resigned South Cambridgeshire DC, Bourn - Conservative resigned South Lakeland DC, Burneside - Liberal Democrat resigned Sutton LB, Stonecot - Liberal Democrat died Trafford MB, Altrincham - Conservative sitting as Independent disqualified Winchester BC, Wonston & Micheldever - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned Wirral MB, Bebington - Labour died
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 16, 2018 16:13:12 GMT
For week 3:Authority | Weeks 1 & 2 | Redcar & Cleveland
| South Kesteven
| South Kesteven | Week 3 | Week 3 | Weeks 1 - 3 | Weeks 1 - 3 | Ward | faults
| Longbeck
| Stamford St George's
| Stamford St John's
| faults | position | faults | position
| ajs
| 426.3 | 30.0
| 31.2
| 29.5
| 90.8
| 1st
| 517.1
| 5th
| andrewp | 363.5 | 48.0+10
| 32.8
| 35.0+10
| 135.8
| 10th
| 499.2
| 3rd
| David Boothroyd | 402.8 | 60.0+10
| 26.8+10
| 40.3
| 147.1
| 12th
| 549.9
| 9th
| dibs
| 430.7 | 38.0+10
| 38.5
| 34.5
| 121.0
| 8th
| 551.7
| 11th
| greenrobinhood
| 416.0 | 36.0+10
| 29.2
| 29.5
| 104.8
| 3rd
| 520.8
| 7th
| hempie | 417.9 | 58.0+10
| 20.8
| 53.0+10
| 151.8
| 14th
| 569.7
| 14th
| k9
| 417.5 | 35.4+10
| 48.5
| 41.0
| 134.9
| 9th
| 552.4
| 12th
| Lancastrian | 388.2 | 32.0+10
| 58.5+10
| 41.0
| 151.5
| 13th
| 539.7
| 8th
| Olympian95
| 401.7 | 40.6+10
| 10.8
| 45.0+10
| 116.4
| 7th
| 518.1
| 6th
| priceofdawn
| 494.7 | 59.9
| 43.4
| 89.8
| 193.1
| 15th
| 687.9
| 15th
| ricmk
| 378.9 | 33.2
| 12.8
| 45.0+10
| 101.0
| 2nd
| 479.9
| 2nd
| Right Leaning
| 386.7 | 32.0+10
| 34.8
| 36.1
| 112.9
| 5th
| 499.6
| 4th
| robbienicoll
| 412.9 | 56.0+10
| 50.1+10
| 11.8
| 137.9
| 11th
| 550.8
| 10th
| Robert Waller
| 307.6 | 38.0+10
| 30.5
| 34.3
| 112.8
| 4th
| 420.3
| 1st
| Yellow Peril
| 439.2 | 36.6+10
| 36.5
| 30.3
| 113.4
| 6th
| 552.5
| 13th
| Total faults
| 6,084.6 | 633.9+120
| 505.2+30
| 595.9+40
| 1,925.0
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| 8,009.6
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Objections please by noon Sunday. There are 7 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.
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