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Post by middleenglander on Feb 25, 2018 12:24:34 GMT
There are 22 known by-elections so far during March and 4 already in April. There are a further 16 known vacancies where there is as yet no date for the by-election, although 5 of these will have ward elections in May and are now unlikely to be contested before then. There are also 27 reported vacancies which will not be filled under the "six month" rule.
1 March - 4 Basingstoke & Deane BC, Kempshott - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Clackmannanshire UA, Clackmannanshire North - SNP resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Green East Devon DC, Exmouth Town - Liberal Democrat resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, Ind Solihull MB, Blythe - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD
8 March - 8 Bolton MB, Farnworth - Labour resigned - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP, Farnworth & Kearsley Residents Dacorum BC, Northchurch - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green East Hampshire DC, Petersfield Bell Hill - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Ind Harlow BC, Little Pardon & Hare Street - Labour resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP Medway UA, Rochester West - Conservative resigned on appointment to Government - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP Nottingham UA, Wollaton West - Conservative died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, Bus Pass Elvis Rutland UA, Oakham South East - Conservative resigned - 2 candidates: Con, No Description Tameside MB, Droylesden East - Labour died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green
15 March - 3 Redcar & Cleveland UA, Longbeck - Independent resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Ind South Kesteven DC, Stamford St George's - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, Ind South Kesteven DC, St John's - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, Ind
22 March - 7 Aylesbury Vale DC, Central & Walton - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, Ind Bassetlaw DC, Worksop South East - Labour resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Cheshire East UA, Bunbury - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green Chiltern DC, Ridgeway - Independent died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Midlothian UA, Pencuik - Labour died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, SNP Staffordshire Moorlands DC, Leek West - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Ind Thurrock UA, Ockendon - UKIP sitting as Independent resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, Thurrock Ind
5 April - 3 Fylde BC, Heyhouses - Conservative died Highland UA, Caol & Mallaig - SNP died Taunton Deane BC, Wiveliscombe & West Deane
19 April - 1 Perth & Kinross UA, Highland - Conservative died
Not yet called - 16 Aylesbury Vale DC, Quainton - Conservative died 22 February Braintree DC, Hatfield Peveral & Terling - Conservative resigned around 7 February Chichester DC, Rogate - Conservative resigned around 23 February following election as MP Cheshire West & Chester, Ellesmere Port Town - Labour died 9 February * Crawley BC, Ifield - Labour died 3 October ** Hyndburn BC, St Oswalds - UKIP died 26 October Lancaster BC, Skerton West - Labour died 8 November Leicestershire CC, Stoney Stanton & Croft - Conservative died 2 January New Forest DC, Milford - Conservative died 12 January * Rochford DC, Hockley - Resident resigned around 21 December * Rushmoor BC, West Heath - UKIP sitting as Independent resigned 8 January St Edmundsbury BC, St Olave's - Labour resigned around middle of January Warrington UA, Lymm South - Conservative died 13 January Welwyn & Hatfield BC, Hatfield Villages - Conservative died 10 February * Wolverhampton MB, Graiseley - Labour died around 22 February Wyre BC, Breck - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned around 8 January
* elections in this ward in May ** election for this seat in May but not covered by 6 month rule
Vacancies arising under 6 month rule - 27 Barking & Dagenham LB, Heath - Labour resigned Bexley LB, Lesnes Abbey - Labour resigned Birmingham MB, Kings Norton - Labour resigned Bolton MB, Smithills - Liberal Democrat resigned Bradford MB, Little Horton - Labour resigned Brentwood BC, Herongate, Ingrave & West Horndon - Localist sitting as Liberal Democrat resigned Croydon LB, Selsdon & Ballard - Conservative resigned Croydon LB, Thornton Heath - Labour sitting as Independent resigned Dudley MB, Halesowen South - Conservative disqualified for non-attendance Enfield LB, Ponders End - Labour resigned Epping Forest DC, Chipping Ongar, Greensted & Marden Ash - Liberal Democrat died Hounslow LB, Bedfont - Labour resigned Hounslow LB, Chiswick Riverside - Conservative resigned Hounslow LB, Hanworth Park - Labour resigned Manchester MB, Chorlton - Labour died Newcastle-upon-Tyne MB, South Jesmond - Labour resigned Oldham MB, Shaw - Liberal Democrat resigned Oxford UA, Northfield Brook - Labour died Portsmouth UA, Baffin - UKIP sitting as Conservative resigned Reigate & Banstead BC, South Park & Woodhatch - Conservative resigned Sefton MB, Blundellsands - Labour resigned South Cambridgeshire DC, Bourn - Conservative resigned South Lakeland DC, Burneside - Liberal Democrat resigned Sutton LB, Stonecot - Liberal Democrat died Weymouth & Portland BC, Weymouth West - Conservative sitting as Green resigned Winchester BC, Wonston & Micheldever - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned Wirral MB, Bebington - Labour died
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 24, 2018 16:09:54 GMT
Robert won this month with 863.5 faults. I make the lowest faults for the 34 by-elections add to 389.2. An interesting but probably irrelevant comparison.
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 24, 2018 15:55:41 GMT
My results don't seem to be up there? Look between Middleenglander's two tables - he's timed you out. I did add your scores up and you got about 330 faults overall, without any time faults being considered, given the most generous interpretation of your two Labour candidates in Arun Marine. They are now. For Arun, Marine, not only did you have 2 Labour and no Liberal Democrat but you also added up to a total of 105%. I would have had to be harsher than Robert and probably assessed 30% prediction for Labour and 0% Liberal Democrat with 5 additional faults for not adding to 100%. You would have been 13th out of 17 if you had posted on time.
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 24, 2018 15:49:26 GMT
Week 4:Authority | Arun | Boston | Chichester | Dorset | Hertfordshire | Lichfield | Sub-total | Ward | Marine | Old Leake & Wrangle | Fishbourne | Bridport | Goffs Oak & Bury Green | Stowe | faults | ajs | 55.5+10 | 18.5 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 31.3 | 34.3 | 168.3
| andrewp | 32.9+10 | 32.5 | 14.7 | 15.0 | 31.3 | 16.3 | 152.7
| David Boothroyd | 43.3+10 | 24.5 | 9.3 | 21.5 | 34.4 | 32.3 | 175.3
| dibs | 30.9+10 | 48.5 | 19.3+10 | 14.2+10 | 21.3 | 16.5 | 180.7
| greenrobinhood | 74.9+10 | 34.5 | 6.7 | 15.0 | 31.3 | 20.3 | 192.6
| hempie | 39.3+10 | 18.5 | 7.0 | 15.5 | 27.2 | 22.3 | 139.8
| k9 | 35.4+10 | 26.5 | 1.8 | 14.7+10 | 21.3 | 18.3 | 137.9
| Lancastrian | 26.9+10 | 42.5 | 9.0 | 18.7+10 | 17.3 | 26.3 | 160.7
| Olympian95 | 64.9+10 | 70.5 | 8.7 | 13.5 | 8.9 | 20.3 | 196.8
| priceofdawn | 75.3+10 | 17.9+10 | 53.3+10 | 27.8 | 32.3+1 | 35.3+1 | 273.9
| ricmk | 38.9+10 | 48.5 | 15.3 | 9.3 | 33.2 | 19.9 | 175.0
| Right Leaning | 22.9+10 | 22.5 | 6.7 | 12.7+10 | 29.3 | 26.3 | 140.4
| robbienicoll | 26.1 | 8.5 | 8.0+1 | 17.5 | 24.4 | 20.0 | 105.6
| Robert Waller | 28.9+10 | 22.5 | 9.0 | 12.2+10 | 17.3 | 8.3 | 118.2
| Ruggerman | 48.9+10 | 24.5 | 9.8 | 17.8+10 | 25.0 | 10.3 | 156.1
| Yellow Peril | 90.9+10 | 24.1 | 18.2 | 13.5+10 | 27.3 | 26.5
| 220.5
| Total faults | 735.6+150 | 485.0+10
| 206.2+10+10 | 248.4+70 | 413.1+1 | 353.1+1 | 2,693.5
| Europeanlefty *
| 60.5+5+10
| 12.5
| 24.2+10
| 23.0
| 29.0
| 16.6
| 190.7
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* if had posted on time but was timed out with 100 faults per by-election Authority | North Kesteven | Scottish Borders | Torfaen
| West Dorset | West Somerset | Total Week 4 | Week 4 | Ward | Eagle, Swinderby & St Hughs | Selkirkshire | Tervethin | Bridport North | Minehead South | faults | position | ajs | 14.7
| 51.5
| 23.3
| 22.0
| 56.6+10 | 346.5
| 12th
| andrewp | 16.9
| 16.8
| 18.3
| 24.0+10 | 44.6+10 | 293.2
| 5th
| David Boothroyd | 21.3
| 20.8
| 37.7
| 34.0+10 | 30.6+10 | 339.8
| 9th
| dibs | 6.9
| 47.5
| 23.3
| 29.9+10 | 16.6+10 | 324.9
| 7th
| greenrobinhood | 35.6+10 | 45.5
| 43.3+10 | 30.0 | 28.7+10 | 405.7
| 15th
| hempie | 26.9
| 28.8
| 21.7
| 32.0+10 | 22.6+10 | 291.9
| 4th
| k9 | 39.6+2+10 | 45.5
| 27.3
| 26.0+10 | 36.6+10 | 344.9
| 11th
| Lancastrian | 32.9
| 38.8
| 21.9
| 24.0+10 | 18.6+10 | 316.9
| 6th
| Olympian95 | 33.6+10 | 58.5
| 20.3
| 32.0+10 | 4.1
| 365.2
| 13th
| priceofdawn | 11.3
| 66.0+2 | 14.9+1 | 78.0
| 40.6+10 | 497.7
| 16th
| ricmk | 46.9
| 19.0
| 27.9
| 18.0
| 46.6+10 | 343.4
| 10th
| Right Leaning | 27.3
| 44.0
| 9.6
| 22.0+10 | 26.6+10 | 289.9
| 3rd
| robbienicoll | 9.3
| 49.5
| 39.6
| 34.0
| 18.6+10 | 266.6
| 2nd
| Robert Waller | 31.3
| 8.8
| 13.4
| 19.9+10 | 16.6+10 | 228.4
| 1st
| Ruggerman | 5.1
| 50.8
| 49.3
| 13.9
| 40.6+10 | 326.0
| 8th
| Yellow Peril | 28.4
| 46.8
| 17.7
| 36.0+10 | 14.6+10 | 384.0
| 14th
| Total faults | 387.7+2+30 | 638.9+2 | 409.6+1+10 | 475.9+100 | 463.8+150 | 5365.3
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| Europeanlefty * | 21.3
| 44.8
| 37.7
| 26.0
| 32.6+10
| 363.1
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and for the month of FebruaryRow 1 column 1 | Weeks 1 - 3 faults | Week 4 faults | Month total faults | Month
position | ajs | 733.8 | 346.5 | 1,080.3 | 9th | andrewp | 691.2 | 293.2 | 984.5 | 4th | David Boothroyd | 561.0 | 339.8 | 900.8 | 2nd | dibs | 814.6 | 324.9 | 1,139.6 | 13th | Europeanlefty | 838.7 | 1,100 | 1,938.7 | 17th | greenrobinhood | 732.3 | 405.7 | 1,138.0 | 12th | hempie | 758.4 | 291.9 | 1,050.3 | 7th | k9 | 740.4 | 344.9 | 1,085.3 | 11th | Lancastrian | 767.7 | 316.9 | 1,084.6 | 10th | Olympian95 | 708.2 | 365.2 | 1,073.4 | 8th | priceofdawn | 813.4 | 497.7 | 1,311.1 | 14th | rickmk | 973.6 | 343.4 | 1,317.0 | 15th | Right Leaning | 717.8 | 289.9 | 1,007.7 | 5th | robbienicoll | 684.0
| 266.6 | 950.6 | 3rd | Robert Waller | 635.1 | 228.4 | 863.5
| 1st | Ruggerman | 1,251.8 | 326.0 | 1,577.8 | 16th | WilliamHone | 1,039.6 | 1,100 | 2,139.7 | 18th | Yellow Peril | 645.2 | 384.0 | 1,029.2 | 6th | Total | 14,106.9
| 7565.3 | 21,672.2 |
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Objections please by 9.00 am Monday. New thread for a quieter March
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 23, 2018 16:03:58 GMT
I think Scottish Borders, Selkirkshire may have given Robert Waller the edge for the month, but after last week will have to check and double check - that may take until Sunday as I will soon have to leave to go back to our daughter's.
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 22, 2018 16:17:03 GMT
16 entries this week with nothing from Europeanlefty and William Hones. The following are the addition faults: dibs 10 for adding to 110% in Chichester, k9 2 for adding to 102% in North Kesteven, robienicoll 1 for adding to 99% in Chichester and priceofdawn a total of 15, with 10 for adding to 90% in Boston, 1 for 99% in Hertfordshire, 1 for 101% in Lichfield, 2 for 98% in Scottish Borders and 1 for 99% in Torfaen.
Arun, Marine: 12 Conservative hold, greenrobinhood, olympian95 & Ruggerman Independent gain with robbienicoll Liberal Democrat gain Boston, Old Leake & Wrangle: 100% Conservative hold Chichester, Fishbourne: 15 Liberasl Democrat hold, priceofdawn Conservative gain Dorset, Bridport: 9 Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat, dibs, k9, Lancastrian, Right Leaning, Robert Waller, Ruggerman & Yellow Peril Liberal Democrat hold Hertfordshire, Goffs Oak & Bury Green: 100% Conservative hold Lichfield, Stowe: 100% Conservative hold North Kestewven, Eagle, Swinderby b& Witham St Hughs: 13 Conservative gain from Independent, greenrobinhood, k9, Olympian Lincolnshire Independent gain Scottish Borders, Selkirkshire: 100% Conservative ahead on first preferences Torfaen, Trevethin: 15 Labour hold, greenrobinhood Independent Wildgust gain West Dorset, Bridport North: 10 Liberal Democrat hold, ajs, greenrobinhood, priceofdawn, ricmk, robbienicoll & Ruggeman Conservative gain West Somerset, Minehead North: 15 Conservative gain from Independent, olympian95 Liberal Democrat gain
At my daughter's again. Will catch up with the results over the weeend.
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 18, 2018 19:57:26 GMT
Week 3 - AmendedAuthority | Doncaster | East Northants | Epsom & Ewell | Falkirk | Halton
| Lancashire | Northants | Sub-total | Ward | Armthorpe | Higham Ferrers Lancaster | Ruxley | Bonnybridge & Larbert
| Halton Castle | Morecambe North
| Higham Ferrers | faults | ajs | 52.9+10
| 28.8
| 15.9
| 22.1
| 13.5
| 45.5
| 14.2
| 202.8
| andrewp | 22.9
| 41.6
| 29.0
| 16.3
| 19.8
| 31.5
| 8.9
| 169.9
| David Boothroyd | 30.9
| 34.8
| 21.0
| 22.3
| 17.8
| 41.5
| 11.4
| 179.6
| dibs | 60.9+10
| 45.6
| 13.0
| 23.3
| 6.3
| 32.1
| 21.5
| 212.7
| Europeanlefty | 10.9
| 34.8
| 39.0
| 17.3
| 20.3
| 32.1
| 24.6
| 179.0
| greenrobinhood | 40.9
| 27.6
| 37.0
| 10.3
| 27.8
| 33.5
| 8.9
| 185.9
| hempie | 20.9
| 24.4
| 15.4
| 8.5
| 29.8
| 33.5
| 7.8
| 140.2
| k9 | 48.9
| 5.6
| 23.0
| 29.3
| 20.5
| 29.5
| 17.9
| 174.6
| Lancastrian | 34.9
| 25.6
| 15.0
| 20.1
| 27.5
| 43.5
| 17.3
| 183.7
| Olympian95 | 56.9+10
| 33.6
| 21.9
| 11.3
| 14.3
| 47.5
| 11.6
| 207.1
| priceofdawn | 26.9
| 26.4
| 33.9
| 29.7+4+10
| 17.8
| 51.5
| 13.5
| 213.7
| ricmk | 9.1
| 47.6
| 21.9
| 32.3
| 24.3
| 31.5
| 37.4
| 204.1
| Right Leaning | 38.9
| 43.6
| 15.9
| 13.4
| 15.8
| 49.5
| 19.4
| 196.5
| robbienicholl | 32.9
| 22.4
| 27.9
| 14.1
| 23.8
| 45.5
| 6.7
| 173.2
| Robert Waller | 20.9
| 18.4
| 27.0
| 6.1
| 23.8
| 35.5
| 9.4
| 141.1
| Ruggerman | 2.9
| 33.6
| 19.4
| 8.1+10
| 38.3
| 33.5
| 16.9
| 162.7
| WilliamHone | 30.9
| 57.6+10
| 69.9+10
| 20.3
| 28.3
| 43.5
| 44.9+10
| 325.2
| Yellow Peril | 0.9
| 25.6
| 19.4
| 13.3
| 9.5
| 23.5
| 20.1
| 112.3
| Total | 543.9+30
| 577.6+10
| 465.6+10
| 317.9+4+20
| 379.3
| 683.6
| 312.4+10
| 3,364.3
| Londonseal80 | 39.1
| 26.8
| 14.7+1
| 100
| 21.1
| 22.7
| 17.2+10
| 252.6
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Authority | North East Derbyshire | North Norfolk
| Teignbridge | Teignbridge | Tendring | West Oxfordshire | York | Week 3 | Ward | Grassmoor | Worstead | Chudleigh | Dawlish Central & North East | St Pauls | Carterton South | Holgate | faults | ajs | 28.1
| 56.3
| 17.4
| 39.3
| 55.1
| 15.8
| 40.7
| 455.4
| andrewp | 30.1
| 44.3
| 27.9
| 35.3
| 51.3
| 13.1
| 30.7
| 402.5
| David Boothroyd | 14.1
| 34.3
| 25.9
| 29.3
| 20.0
| 1.3
| 54.6
| 359.2
| dibs | 22.1
| 56.3
| 27.4+10 | 31.3
| 50.4
| 17.3
| 33.4+10
| 471.0
| Europeanlefty | 52.1
| 55.4
| 21.4+10
| 51.3+10
| 23.4
| 17.3
| 34.7
| 454.7
| greenrobinhood | 26.1
| 50.3
| 25.9
| 35.3
| 43.1
| 11.1
| 36.7
| 414.3
| hempie | 42.1
| 49.4
| 41.9
| 29.3
| 27.3
| 19.3
| 46.7
| 396.2
| k9 | 54.3+10
| 49.4
| 27.4
| 39.3
| 39.9+5
| 13.3
| 50.7
| 464.0
| Lancastrian | 54.5
| 49.4
| 23.9
| 29.3
| 47.1
| 9.1
| 40.7
| 437.7
| Olympian95 | 52.3
| 48.3
| 23.9
| 15.3
| 41.3
| 21.1
| 42.7
| 452.0
| priceofdawn | 22.1
| 65.4+10
| 24.1+10
| 61.3+10
| 54.2
| 21.8
| 46.0
| 538.5
| ricmk | 42.1
| 41.4
| 27.9
| 61.3+10
| 42.5+10
| 7.3
| 64.7+10
| 521.3
| Right Leaning | 22.1
| 52.3
| 19.9
| 37.3
| 34.9
| 11.3
| 62.7
| 437.0
| robbienicholl | 18.1
| 57.4
| 23.9
| 37.3
| 47.9+10
| 12.7
| 34.7
| 415.2
| Robert Waller | 20.5
| 39.4
| 27.9
| 21.3
| 25.3
| 21.3
| 42.7
| 339.4
| Ruggerman | 8.1
| 51.4
| 30.1+10
| 63.3+10
| 15.8
| 9.1
| 58.7
| 419.1
| WilliamHone | 26.1
| 35.4
| 27.9
| 33.3
| 52.0+10
| 43.8+10
| 46.6
| 610.3
| Yellow Peril | 22.1
| 50.3
| 23.9
| 37.3
| 35.6
| 9.1
| 44.7
| 335.3
| Total | 557.4+10
| 886.6+10
| 468.8+10+30
| 686.9+40
| 707.1+35
| 275.2+10
| 812.0+20
| 7,923.2
| Londonseal80 | 28.7
| 54.1+1+10
| 19+10+10
| 43.7+10
| 28.1+9.2
| 17.3
| 34.7
| 528.2
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and for the first 3 weeks of February
| Weeks 1 & 2 faults | Week 3 faults | Week 3 position | Weeks 1 to 3 faults | Weeks 1 to 3 position | ajs | 278.4 | 455.4
| 13th
| 733.8
| 9th
| andrewp | 288.7 | 402.5
| 5th
| 691.2
| 5th
| David Boothroyd | 201.8 | 359.2
| 3rd
| 561.0
| 1st
| dibs | 343.6 | 471.0
| 15th
| 814.6
| 14th
| Europeanlefty | 384.0 | 454.7
| 12th
| 838.7
| 15th
| greenrobinhood | 318.0 | 414.3
| 6th
| 732.3
| 8th
| hempie | 362.2 | 396.2
| 4th
| 758.4
| 11th
| k9 | 276.4 | 464.0
| 14th
| 740.4
| 10th
| Lancastrian | 330.0 | 437.7
| 10th
| 767.7
| 12th
| Olympian95 | 256.2 | 452.0
| 11th
| 708.2
| 6th
| priceofdawn | 274.8 | 538.5
| 17th
| 813.4
| 13th
| rickmk | 452.3 | 521.3
| 16th
| 973.6
| 16th
| Right Leaning | 280.8 | 437.0
| 9th
| 717.8
| 7th
| robbienicholl | 268.8 | 415.2
| 7th
| 684.0 | 4th
| Robert Waller | 295.7 | 339.4
| 2nd
| 635.1
| 2nd
| Ruggerman | 832.7 | 419.1
| 8th
| 1,251.8
| 18th
| WilliamHone | 429.3 | 610.3
| 18th
| 1,039.6
| 17th
| Yellow Peril | 309.9 | 335.3
| 1st
| 645.2
| 3rd
| Total | 6,183.6 | 7,923.2
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| 14,106.9
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Objections please by 5 pm Sunday There are 12 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 17, 2018 20:06:52 GMT
Somehow or other I got robbienicoll.sd prediction for Halton Castle and Grassmoor mixed up. His correct faults are 23.8 for Halton Castle (not 40.3) and 18.1 for Grassmoor (58.1) resulting in 415.2 for the week, placing him in 7th place (not 15th), and 684.0 for the month to date - in 4th rather than 10th. Will wait to see how many more errors before updating. I feel the problem comes from predictions being in a strange order -the normal order most of the time is alphabetical (principal councils), but sometimes they get sent in random order as the poster finalises a particular election (I'm one of the worst for that), Maybe would help if we all try hard to get the order right especially on these big and complex weeks? Might ease ME's nightmares! I think this is what happened and a second check missed the error. I also try to keep the same order of parties - Con, Lab, LD, Nationalist (if any), Green, UKIP, others as this also helps to avoid mistakes.
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 17, 2018 14:09:11 GMT
North East Derbyshire, Grassmoor - Labour hold Party | 2018 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Labour | 459 | 48.9% | -10.3% | -8.7% | -31.2% | -31.5% | Conservative | 368 | 39.2% | +22.1% | +22.1% | +19.4% | +19.7% | Liberal Democrat | 111 | 11.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -23.6% | -25.3% |
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| Total votes | 938 |
| 50% | 54% | 81% | 83% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 16¼% / 15½% since 2015 and ~ 25½% since 2011 Council now 33 Labour, 18 Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent North Norfolk, Worstead - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 | since 2011 | since 2007 | Liberal Democrat | 509 | 72.7% | +39.4% | +26.0% | +12.6% | Conservative | 118 | 16.9% | -25.0% | -12.0% | -23.1% | Labour | 73 | 10.4% | -1.8% | -5.6% | from nowhere | Green |
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| -12.6% | -8.4% |
| Total votes | 700 |
| 49% | 70% | 76% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 32% since 2015, 19% since 2011 and 18% since 2007 Council now 22 Conservative, 18 Liberal Democrat, 8 Independent Teignbridge, Chudleigh - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2016 B | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Liberal Democrat ^ | 575 | 41.0% | -10.5% | +29.9% | +29.7% | +22.8% | +21.1% | Conservative | 564 | 40.3% | +4.7% | +11.7% | +12.6% | +7.9% | +8.1% | Labour | 262 | 18.7% | +12.6% | +5.7% | +5.3% | +1.4% | -0.3% | UKIP |
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| -6.7% |
|
|
|
| Independent |
|
|
| -21.5% | -22.1% | -32.2% | -28.9% | Independents ^ |
|
|
| -12.9% | -12.4% |
|
| Green |
|
|
| -12.8% | -13.1% |
|
| Total votes | 1,401 |
| 106% | 31% | 31% | 51% | 56% |
^ new councillor unsuccessfully contested 2015 election as Independent and was elected as Conservative in 2011
Swing Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~ 7½% since 2016 by-election but Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 9% since 2015 and ~ 7% since 2011 Council now 24 Conservative, 17 Liberal Democrat, 5 Independent
Teignbridge, Dawlish Central & North East - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Liberal Democrat | 1,287 | 70.6% | +47.5% | +46.7% | +50.2% | +50.2% | Conservative | 535 | 29.4% | -0.7% | -0.1% | -11.6% | -10.7% | Independent |
|
| -16.8% | -15.2% | -38.6% | -39.5% | Green |
|
| -15.3% | -16.0% |
|
| Labour |
|
| -14.7% | -15.4% |
|
| Total votes | 1,822 |
| 32% | 34% | 62% | 66% |
Swing if meaningful Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 24% since 2015 and ~ 31% since 2011 Council now 24 Conservative, 17 Liberal Democrat, 5 Independent Tendring, St Pauls - Conservative gain from UKIP sitting as Independent
Party | 2018 votes | 2018 votes | since 2016 B | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Conservative | 378 | 39.5% | +12.0% | +6.7% | +8.5% | -2.3% | -1.4% | Independent Andrews | 160 | 16.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Hones | 134 | 14.0% | -7.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 114 | 11.9% | -1.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 79 | 8.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 71 | 7.4% | -30.1% | -29.6% | -29.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 20 | 2.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Tendring First |
|
|
| -30.1% | -32.5% | -58.2% | -59.1%
| Total votes | 956 |
| 85% | 37% | 41% | 59% | 60% |
Swing not meaningful although 21% UKIP to Conservative since 2016 by-election
Council now 33 Conservative, 8 UKIP, 5 Independent, 4 Labour, 3 Resident, 3 Non Aligned, 2 No Group Independent, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Tendring First
West Oxfordshire, Carterton South - Conservative hold
Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2011 | since 2010 | Conservative | 388 | 62.9% | +1.4% | +8.4% | -6.4% | -15.1% | Liberal Democrat | 146 | 23.7% | +17.7% | from nowhere | +9.4% | +1.6% | Labour | 83 | 13.5% | +2.0% | +4.2% | +3.4% | from nowhere | UKIP |
|
| -15.4% | -29.0% |
|
| Green |
|
| -5.6% | -7.3% | -6.4% |
| Total votes | 617 |
| 28% | 63% | 48% | 29% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 8% since 2015, 2011 and 2010 Council now 40 Conservative, 5 Liberal Democrat, 4 Labour York, Holgate - Labour hold Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Labour | 1,521 | 50.0% | +22.6% | +22.0% | Liberal Democrat | 982 | 32.3% | +19.5% | +19.8% | Conservative | 334 | 11.0% | -8.0% | -6.3% | Green | 203 | 6.7% | -9.3% | -7.8% | UKIP |
|
| -11.6% | -12.9% | Independent |
|
| -9.1% | -10.2% | TUSC
|
|
| -4.1%
| -4.6%
| Total votes | 3,040 |
| 38% | 43% |
Swing, if meaningful, Liberal Democrat to Labour 1½% / 1% since 2015 Council now 15 Labour, 14 Conservative, 12 Liberal Democrat, 4 Green, 2 Independent
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 17, 2018 14:08:32 GMT
Doncaster, Armthorpe - Labour hold Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 "top" | since 2017 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Labour | 1,431 | 75.4% | +34.8% | +34.9% | +41.7% | +43.2% | Independent | 466 | 24.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
|
| -28.7% | -26.7% | -28.1% | -28.8% | Conservative |
|
| -21.6% | -23.2% | -15.5% | -15.9% | Green |
|
| -9.0% | -9.7% | -7.5% | -7.7% | Liberal Democrat |
|
|
|
| -7.9% | -8.1% | Independent |
|
|
|
| -7.2% | -7.3% | Total votes | 1,897
|
| 52%
| 56%
| 24%
| 24%
|
Swing not meaningful Council now 43 Labour, 7 Conservative, 3 Working for Mexborough, 2 Independent East Northamptonshire, Higham Ferrers Lancaster - Conservative hold Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | 2015 result | 2011 result | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | Conservative | 611 | 55.6% | 2 Unopposed | 2 unopposed | -15.2% | -15.5% | Liberal Democrat | 244 | 22.2% |
|
| from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 189 | 17.2% |
|
| -12.0% | -11.7% | Green | 33 | 3.0% |
|
| from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 22 | 2.0% |
|
| from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,099 |
|
|
| 96% | 98% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 36 Conservative, 2 Labour, 2 Independent Epsom & Ewell, Ruxley - Resident Association hold Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Resident Association | 398 | 37.2% | -7.4% | -4.5% | -5.7% | -2.3% | Conservative | 340 | 31.8% | -0.6% | -2.2% | -6.6% | -9.2% | Labour | 264 | 24.7% | +10.5% | +9.9% | +13.0% | +11.8% | Liberal Democrat | 67 | 6.3% | -2.5% | -3.3% | -0.7% | -0.4% | Total votes | 1,069
|
| 35% | 38% | 58% | 64% |
Swing Resident Association to Conservative 3½% / 1¼% since 2015 but Conservative to Resident Association ½% / 3½% since 2011 Council now 31 Resident Association, 4 Conservative, 3 Labour Falkirk, Bonnybridge & Lerbert - SNP hold based on first preference votes Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | since 2012 | since 2007 | SNP | 1,295 | 38.6% | +4.9% | +1.0% | +7.4% | Conservative | 1,088 | 32.4% | +8.1% | +24.0% | +23.0% | Labour | 813 | 24.2% | +8.5% | -3.3% | -1.2% | Green | 124 | 3.7% | -0.1% | from nowhere | -1.2% | UKIP | 35 | 1.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent elected |
|
| -20.1% | -22.7% | -25.5% | Other Independent |
|
| -2.3% | -3.7% | -2.3% | Scottish Socialist |
|
|
|
| -1.2% | Total votes | 3,355
|
| 60% | 75% | 55% |
Swing SNP to Conservative ~ 1½% since 2017 and, if meaningful, ~ 11½% since 2012 and ~ 8% since 2007 Council now 12 SNP, 9 Labour, 7 Conservative, 2 Independent Halton, Halton Castle - Labour hold Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | Labour | 522 | 70.3% | -5.8% | +0.2% | +3.9% | -15.0% | No Description ^ | 133 | 17.9% | +9.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 88 | 11.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
|
| -15.5% | -17.2% | -28.7% |
| Liberal Democrat |
|
|
| -7.8% |
| -14.8% | TUSC |
|
|
| -5.0% | -5.0% |
| Total votes | 743 |
| 55% | 26% | 52% | 56% |
^ Contested seat as Independent in 2016 and TUSC 2015 & 2014 Swing Labour to Independent ~ 7½% since 2016 Council now 52 Labour, 2 Conservative, 2 Liberal Democrat Lancashire, Morecambe North - Conservative hold Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | Conservative | 1,332 | 49.0% | -14.2% | Liberal Democrat | 809 | 29.7% | +21.6% | Labour | 580 | 21.3% | -0.7% | Green |
|
| -6.6% | Total votes | 2,721 |
| 72% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 18% since 2017 Council now 44 Conservative, 30 Labour, 4 Liberal Democrat, 2 No Party, 2 Independent, 1 Green, 1 Independent Northamptonshire, Higham Ferrers - Conservative hold Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | since 2013 | Conservative | 1,414 | 56.6% | -3.5% | +12.5% | Labour | 557 | 22.3% | +3.5% | +7.9% | Liberal Democrat | 336 | 13.5% | +2.3% | +9.1% | UKIP | 109 | 4.4% | -5.5% | -21.6% | Green | 81 | 3.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent |
|
|
| -11.2% | Total votes | 2,497 |
| 85% | 93% |
Swing Conservative to Labour 3½% since 2017 but, if meaningful, Labour to Conservative 2¼% since 2013 Council now 43 Conservative, 12 Labour, 2 Liberal Democrat
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 17, 2018 1:26:27 GMT
Somehow or other I got robbienicoll.sd prediction for Halton Castle and Grassmoor mixed up. His correct faults are 23.8 for Halton Castle (not 40.3) and 18.1 for Grassmoor (58.1) resulting in 415.2 for the week, placing him in 7th place (not 15th), and 684.0 for the month to date - in 4th rather than 10th.
Will wait to see how many more errors before updating.
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 17, 2018 0:43:09 GMT
Week 3Authority | Doncaster | East Northants | Epsom & Ewell | Falkirk | Halton
| Lancashire | Northants | Sub-total | Ward | Armthorpe | Higham Ferrers Lancaster | Ruxley | Bonnybridge & Larbert
| Halton Castle | Morecambe North
| Higham Ferrers | faults | ajs | 52.9+10
| 28.8
| 15.9
| 22.1
| 13.5
| 45.5
| 14.2
| 202.8
| andrewp | 22.9
| 41.6
| 29.0
| 16.3
| 19.8
| 31.5
| 8.9
| 169.9
| David Boothroyd | 30.9
| 34.8
| 21.0
| 22.3
| 17.8
| 41.5
| 11.4
| 179.6
| dibs | 60.9+10
| 45.6
| 13.0
| 23.3
| 6.3
| 32.1
| 21.5
| 212.7
| Europeanlefty | 10.9
| 34.8
| 39.0
| 17.3
| 20.3
| 32.1
| 24.6
| 179.0
| greenrobinhood | 40.9
| 27.6
| 37.0
| 10.3
| 27.8
| 33.5
| 8.9
| 185.9
| hempie | 20.9
| 24.4
| 15.4
| 8.5
| 29.8
| 33.5
| 7.8
| 140.2
| k9 | 48.9
| 5.6
| 23.0
| 29.3
| 20.5
| 29.5
| 17.9
| 174.6
| Lancastrian | 34.9
| 25.6
| 15.0
| 20.1
| 27.5
| 43.5
| 17.3
| 183.7
| Olympian95 | 56.9+10
| 33.6
| 21.9
| 11.3
| 14.3
| 47.5
| 11.6
| 207.1
| priceofdawn | 26.9
| 26.4
| 33.9
| 29.7+4+10
| 17.8
| 51.5
| 13.5
| 213.7
| ricmk | 9.1
| 47.6
| 21.9
| 32.3
| 24.3
| 31.5
| 37.4
| 204.1
| Right Leaning | 38.9
| 43.6
| 15.9
| 13.4
| 15.8
| 49.5
| 19.4
| 196.5
| robbienicholl | 32.9
| 22.4
| 27.9
| 14.1
| 40.3
| 45.5
| 6.7
| 189.7
| Robert Waller | 20.9
| 18.4
| 27.0
| 6.1
| 23.8
| 35.5
| 9.4
| 141.1
| Ruggerman | 2.9
| 33.6
| 19.4
| 8.1+10
| 38.3
| 33.5
| 16.9
| 162.7
| WilliamHone | 30.9
| 57.6+10
| 69.9+10
| 20.3
| 28.3
| 43.5
| 44.9+10
| 325.2
| Yellow Peril | 0.9
| 25.6
| 19.4
| 13.3
| 9.5
| 23.5
| 20.1
| 112.3
| Total | 543.9+30
| 577.6+10
| 465.6+10
| 317.9+4+20
| 395.8
| 683.6
| 312.4+10
| 3,380.8
| Londonseal80 | 39.1
| 26.8
| 14.7+1
| 100
| 21.1
| 22.7
| 17.2+10
| 252.6
|
Authority | North East Derbyshire | North Norfolk
| Teignbridge | Teignbridge | Tendring | West Oxfordshire | York | Week 3 | Ward | Grassmoor | Worstead | Chudleigh | Dawlish Central & North East | St Pauls | Carterton South | Holgate | faults | ajs | 28.1
| 56.3
| 17.4
| 39.3
| 55.1
| 15.8
| 40.7
| 455.4
| andrewp | 30.1
| 44.3
| 27.9
| 35.3
| 51.3
| 13.1
| 30.7
| 402.5
| David Boothroyd | 14.1
| 34.3
| 25.9
| 29.3
| 20.0
| 1.3
| 54.6
| 359.2
| dibs | 22.1
| 56.3
| 27.4+10 | 31.3
| 50.4
| 17.3
| 33.4+10
| 471.0
| Europeanlefty | 52.1
| 55.4
| 21.4+10
| 51.3+10
| 23.4
| 17.3
| 34.7
| 454.7
| greenrobinhood | 26.1
| 50.3
| 25.9
| 35.3
| 43.1
| 11.1
| 36.7
| 414.3
| hempie | 42.1
| 49.4
| 41.9
| 29.3
| 27.3
| 19.3
| 46.7
| 396.2
| k9 | 54.3+10
| 49.4
| 27.4
| 39.3
| 39.9+5
| 13.3
| 50.7
| 464.0
| Lancastrian | 54.5
| 49.4
| 23.9
| 29.3
| 47.1
| 9.1
| 40.7
| 437.7
| Olympian95 | 52.3
| 48.3
| 23.9
| 15.3
| 41.3
| 21.1
| 42.7
| 452.0
| priceofdawn | 22.1
| 65.4+10
| 24.1+10
| 61.3+10
| 54.2
| 21.8
| 46.0
| 538.5
| ricmk | 42.1
| 41.4
| 27.9
| 61.3+10
| 42.5+10
| 7.3
| 64.7+10
| 521.3
| Right Leaning | 22.1
| 52.3
| 19.9
| 37.3
| 34.9
| 11.3
| 62.7
| 437.0
| robbienicholl | 58.1
| 57.4
| 23.9
| 37.3
| 47.9+10
| 12.7
| 34.7
| 471.7
| Robert Waller | 20.5
| 39.4
| 27.9
| 21.3
| 25.3
| 21.3
| 42.7
| 339.4
| Ruggerman | 8.1
| 51.4
| 30.1+10
| 63.3+10
| 15.8
| 9.1
| 58.7
| 419.1
| WilliamHone | 26.1
| 35.4
| 27.9
| 33.3
| 52.0+10
| 43.8+10
| 46.6
| 610.3
| Yellow Peril | 22.1
| 50.3
| 23.9
| 37.3
| 35.6
| 9.1
| 44.7
| 335.3
| Total | 597.4+10
| 886.6+10
| 468.8+10+30
| 686.9+40
| 707.1+35
| 275.2+10
| 812.0+20
| 7,979.7
| Londonseal80 | 28.7
| 54.1+1+10
| 19+10+10
| 43.7+10
| 28.1+9.2
| 17.3
| 34.7
| 528.2
|
and for the first 3 weeks of February
| Weeks 1 & 2 faults | Week 3 faults | Week 3 position | Weeks 1 to 3 faults | Weeks 1 to 3 position | ajs | 278.4 | 455.4
| 12th
| 733.8
| 8th
| andrewp | 288.7 | 402.5
| 5th
| 691.2
| 4th
| David Boothroyd | 201.8 | 359.2
| 3rd
| 561.0
| 1st
| dibs | 343.6 | 471.0
| 14th
| 814.6
| 14th
| Europeanlefty | 384.0 | 454.7
| 11th
| 838.7
| 15th
| greenrobinhood | 318.0 | 414.3
| 6th
| 732.3
| 7th
| hempie | 362.2 | 396.2
| 4th
| 758.4
| 11th
| k9 | 276.4 | 464.0
| 13th
| 740.4
| 9th
| Lancastrian | 330.0 | 437.7
| 9th
| 767.7
| 12th
| Olympian95 | 256.2 | 452.0
| 10th
| 708.2
| 5th
| priceofdawn | 274.8 | 538.5
| 17th
| 813.4
| 13th
| rickmk | 452.3 | 521.3
| 16th
| 973.6
| 16th
| Right Leaning | 280.8 | 437.0
| 8th
| 717.8
| 6th
| robbienicholl | 268.8 | 471.7
| 15th
| 740.5
| 10th
| Robert Waller | 295.7 | 339.4
| 2nd
| 635.1
| 2nd
| Ruggerman | 832.7 | 419.1
| 7th
| 1,251.8
| 18th
| WilliamHone | 429.3 | 610.3
| 18th
| 1,039.6
| 17th
| Yellow Peril | 309.9 | 335.3
| 1st
| 645.2
| 3rd
| Total | 6,183.6 | 7,979.7
|
| 14,163.4
|
|
Objections please by 5 pm Sunday There are 12 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 16, 2018 17:48:14 GMT
There are 12 by-elections called in the last week of February, 21 so far during March and 1 already in April. There are a further 15 known vacancies where there is as yet no date for the by-election, although 4 of these will have ward elections in May. There are also 24 reported vacancies which will not be filled under the "six month" rule.
22 February - 12 Arun DC, Marine - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Ind Boston BC, Old Leake & Wrangle - Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Blue Revolution Chichester DC, Fishbourne - Liberal Democrat resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Dorset CC, Bridport - Liberal Democrat resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green Hertfordshire CC, Goffs Oak & Bury Green - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green Lichfield DC, Stowe - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, Something New North Kesteven DC, Eagle, Swinderby & Witham St Hughs - Independent died - 3 candidates: Con, LD, Lincs Ind Scottish Borders UA, Selkirkshire - Conservative resigned following appointment as MSP - 7 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Green, 2 Ind Torfaen UA, Trevethin - Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Lab, Green, 2 Ind West Dorset DC, Bridport North - Liberal Democrat resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green West Somerset DC, Minehead South - Independent sitting as UKIP resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Wigan MB, Bryn - Independent resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Ind
1 March - 4 Basingstoke & Deane BC, Kempshott - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD Clackmannanshire UA, Clackmannanshire North - SNP resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Green East Devon DC, Exmouth Town - Liberal Democrat resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, Ind Solihull MB, Blythe - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD
8 March - 8 Bolton MB, Farnworth - Labour resigned - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP, Farnworth & Kearsley Residents Dacorum BC, Northchurch - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green East Hampshire DC, Petersfield Bell Hill - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Ind Harlow BC, Little Pardon & Hare Street - Labour resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP Medway UA, Rochester West - Conservative resigned on appointment to Government - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP Nottingham UA, Wollaton West - Conservative died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, Bus Pass Elvis Rutland UA, Oakham South East - Conservative resigned - 2 candidates: Con, No Description Tameside MB, Droylesden East - Labour died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green
15 March - 3 Redcar & Cleveland UA, Longbeck - Independent resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Ind South Kesteven DC, Stamford St George's - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, Ind South Kesteven DC, St John's - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, Ind
22 March - 6 Aylesbury Vale DC, Central & Walton - Conservative resigned Cheshire East UA, Bunbury - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned Chiltern DC, Ridgeway - Independent died Midlothian UA, Pencuik - Labour died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, SNP Staffordshire Moorlands DC, Leek West - Conservative died Thurrock UA, Ockendon - UKIP sitting as Independent resigned
5 April - 1 Highland UA, Caol & Mallaig - SNP died
Not yet called - 15 Cheshire West & Chester, Ellesmere Port Town - Labour died 9 February * Crawley BC, Ifield - Labour died 3 October Fylde BC, Heyhouses - Conservative died 20 December ** Hyndburn BC, St Oswalds - UKIP died 26 October Lancaster BC, Skerton West - Labour died 8 November Leicestershire CC, Stoney Stanton & Croft - Conservative died 2 January New Forest DC, Milford - Conservative died 12 January Perth & Kinross UA, Highland - Conservative died 6 February * Rochford DC, Hockley - Resident resigned around 21 December * Rushmoor BC, West Heath - UKIP sitting as Independent resigned 8 January St Edmundsbury BC, St Olave's - Labour resigned around middle of January Taunton Deane BC, Wiveliscombe & West Deane - Independent resigned around 13 February Warrington UA, Lymm South - Conservative died 13 January Welwyn & Hatfield BC, Hatfield Villages - Conservative died 10 February Wyre BC, Breck - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned around 8 January
* elections in this ward in May ** election for this seat in May but not covered by 6 month rule
Vacancies arising under 6 month rule - 24 Barking & Dagenham LB, Heath - Labour resigned Bexley LB, Lesnes Abbey - Labour resigned Birmingham MB, Kings Norton - Labour resigned Bolton MB, Smithills - Liberal Democrat resigned Bradford MB, Little Horton - Labour resigned Brentwood BC, Herongate, Ingrave & West Horndon - Localist sitting as Liberal Democrat resigned Croydon LB, Selsdon & Ballard - Conservative resigned Croydon LB, Thornton Heath - Labour sitting as Independent resigned Epping Forest DC, Chipping Ongar, Greensted & Marden Ash - Liberal Democrat died Hounslow LB, Bedfont - Labour resigned Hounslow LB, Chiswick Riverside - Conservative resigned Hounslow LB, Hanworth Park - Labour resigned Newcastle-upon-Tyne MB, South Jesmond - Labour resigned Oldham MB, Shaw - Liberal Democrat resigned Oxford UA, Northfield Brook - Labour died Portsmouth UA, Baffin - UKIP sitting as Conservative resigned Reigate & Banstead BC, South Park & Woodhatch - Conservative resigned Sefton MB, Blundellsands - Labour resigned South Cambridgeshire DC, Bourn - Conservative resigned South Lakeland DC, Burneside - Liberal Democrat resigned Sutton LB, Stonecot - Liberal Democrat died Weymouth & Portland BC, Weymouth West - Conservative sitting as Green resigned Winchester BC, Wonston & Micheldever - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned Wirral MB, Bebington - Labour died
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 16, 2018 1:14:38 GMT
Nothing from Doncaster and we don't know which way round the Independents are in Clacton, do we? But my very rough look at all the numbers suggests that David Boothroyd is a mile ahead (well about 100 faults) for the month and may be leading this week too, ahead of Yellow Peril and myself. YP and I have probably advanced into the monthly top five, along with Olympian and Robbie Nicoll - but this is all very tentative and incomplete. My initial figures (a lot of checking needed this week) has Robert ahead for the week with David second and Yellow Peril third p- don't think they had any wrong winner faults. David is some 80 ahead of Robert on my calculation.
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 15, 2018 23:21:09 GMT
North East Derbyshire, Grassmoor - result awaited
Party | 2018 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Row 2 column 1 | Row 2 column 2 | Row 2 column 3 | Row 2 column 4 | Row 2 column 5 | Row 2 column 6 | Row 2 column 7 | Row 3 column 1 | Row 3 column 2 | Row 3 column 3 | Row 3 column 4 | Row 3 column 5 | Row 3 column 6 | Row 3 column 7 | Row 4 column 1 | Row 4 column 2 | Row 4 column 3 | Row 4 column 4 | Row 4 column 5 | Row 4 column 6 | Row 4 column 7 | UKIP |
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| -23.6% | -25.3% |
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| Total votes | Row 6 column 2 |
| Row 6 column 4 | Row 6 column 5 | Row 6 column 6 | Row 6 column 7 |
Swing Council now 32 Labour, 18 Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent, 1 Vacant
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 15, 2018 18:34:25 GMT
18 entries week with Ruggerman making a return and Londonseal80 making a first foray but not on the prediction thread.
Dibs gets 10 additional faults for adding to 110% in Teignbridge, Cudleigh whilst priceofdawn gets 4 additional faults for adding to 96% in Falkirk.
Lancastrian & Right Leaning had a Conservative in Doncaster rather than an Independent and Yellow Peril a LG in East Northamptonshire instead of a LD. I am minded to accept these as correct as there is no ambiguity as to what was intended. Ruggerman edited their prediction at 09.02 but I have no idea what changed so again no faults
Dibs has Conservative and Liberal Democrat both on 45% in North Norfolk but nominated the Liberal Democrat to win whilst also Labour and Liberal Democrat tying on 35% with the Liberal Democrat again predicted to win. However k9 predicts Conservative and Independent Hone to both get 30% in Tendring without nominating a winner - if either win the penalty is 5 faults, 10 if neither wins.
Doncaster, Armthorpe: 15 Labour hold, ajs, dibs and Olympian95 Independent gain East Northamptonshire, Higham Ferrers Lancaster: 17 Conservative hold, WilliamHone Labour gain Epsom & Ewell, Ruxley: 17 Resident Association hold, WilliamHone Liberal Democrat gain Falkirk, Bonnybridge & Larbert: 16 SNP ahead on first preferences, priceofdawn & Ruggerman Conservative ahead Halton, Halton Castle: 100% Labour hold Lancashire, Morecambe North: 100% Conservative hold Northamptonshire. Higham Ferrers: 17 Conservative hold, WilliamHone Labour gain North East Derbyshire, Grassmoor: 17 Labour hold, k9 Liberal Democrat gain North Norfolk, Worstead: 17 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, priceofdawn Conservative hold Teignbridge, Chudleigh: 15 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, Eurolefty, priceofdawn & Ruggerman Conservative hold Teignbridge, Dawlish Central & North East: 14 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, Eurolefty, priceofdawn, ricmk & Ruggerman Conservative hold Tendring, St Pauls: 14 Conservative gain from UKIP, k9 Conservative & Independent Hone tie, ricmk Independent Andrews gain, robbienicholl Independent Hone gain & WilliamHone Labour gain West Oxfordshire, Carterton South: 17 Conservative hold, WilliamHone Liberal Democrat gain York Holgate: 16 Labour hold, dibs Liberal Democrat gain & ricmk Conservative gain
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 15, 2018 14:00:25 GMT
The Bolton Council website must be the worst in the UK for Electoral Services. Not only is the SOPN not yet shown on the election pages for the Farnworth by-election nearly 6 days after nominations closed - nor identified using the search engine - but also there is no Notice of Election for this election whilst the result of the Hulton by-election held on 18 January is shown only in the News section but not the Elections section
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 11, 2018 13:27:30 GMT
Have there more than 14 council by-election in any recent (say, post-2010) week that hasn't coincided with a "regular" election of some sort? What is the actual record number? This is the highest I can recall apart from late 2010 when Exeter & Norwich had to run their deferred elections, although not sure whether they were strictly by-elections.
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 11, 2018 10:57:18 GMT
The total electorate for the 14 by-elections to be held on 15 February is around 93,500, although some 3,815 in Higham Ferrers Lancaster have two votes also for the County Council by-election. The total number of individuals eligible to vote is therefore some 89,650.
There is a Notice of Poll for 12 of the contests which give the electorate by Polling Station, subject to gaps and late additions The Falkirk website appears to have no such information but turnout last May enables a figure to be determined, subject to whether invalid votes are included. York does not have such information but Local Government Boundary Commission figures of electorate confirm estimates based on available information.
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 10, 2018 0:57:29 GMT
Brighton & Hove, East Brighton - Labour hold
Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2016 B | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2012 B | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Labour | 1,889 | 67.5% | +9.9% | +21.0% | +19.4% | +11.4% | +20.9% | +20.3% | Conservative | 481 | 17.2% | -2.7% | -5.3% | -5.8% | -1.5% | -4.1% | -4.7% | Green | 316 | 11.3% | +0.2% | -8.2% | -5.3% | -4.7% | -10.3% | -9.1% | Liberal Democrat | 114 | 4.1% | -0.4% | -3.8% | -4.3% | +2.0% | -3.2% | -2.8% | UKIP |
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| -5.9% |
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| -5.2% |
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| Independent |
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| -1.2% |
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| TUSC |
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| -3.7% | -3.9% | -1.9% | -3.2% | -3.6% | Total votes | 2,800 |
| 108% | 40% | 43% | 98% | 63% | 72% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~ 6½% since 2016 and 2012 by-elections and ~ 13% since 2015 and 2011 Council now 22 Labour, 20 Conservative, 11 Green, 1 Independent East Staffordshire, Stretton - Conservative hold Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 B | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Conservative | 764 | 42.5% | -4.6% | -2.5% | -6.3% | -7.3% | -8.8% | Independent ^ | 625 | 34.8% | +6.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 347 | 19.3% | +0.1% | -0.4% | +0.5% | -14.4% | -11.2% | UKIP | 47 | 2.6% | -0.6% | -25.0% | -21.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 14 | 0.8% | -1.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green |
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| -7.7% | -8.3% |
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| Popular Alliance |
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| -16.5% | -18.2% | Total votes | 1,797 |
| 111% | 39% | 42% | 60% | 66% |
^ Independent - Save Our Stretton Swing Conservative to Independent ~ 5½% since 2017 by-election Council now 26 Conservative, 12 Labour, 1 Liberal Democrat Eden, Hartside - Conservative hold Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 | 2011 result | 2007 result | Conservative | 175 | 52.9% | -3.9% | unopposed | unopposed | Independent | 98 | 29.6% | -13.7% |
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| Green | 58 | 17.5% | from nowhere |
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| Total votes | 331 |
| 43% |
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Swing Independent to Conservative ~ 5% since 2015 Council now 20 Conservative, 10 Independent, 7 Liberal Democrat, 1 Labour South Staffordshire, Codsall South - Conservative hold Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | 2015 result | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Conservative | 490 | 78.8% | 2 unopposed | +17.0% | +17.4% | Labour | 82 | 13.2% |
| -2.2% | -1.4% | Green | 50 | 8.0% |
| from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -22.8% | -24.0% | Total votes | 622 |
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| 38% | 40% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 43 Conservative, 4 Independent, 1 Labour, 1 UKIP Staffordshire, Codsall - Conservative hold Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | since 2013 | since 2009 | Conservative | 1,274 | 67.6% | -7.6% | +12.4% | +19.1% | Green | 329 | 17.4% | +6.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 283 | 15.0% | +0.8% | -1.2% | +5.2% | UKIP |
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| -28.6% | -31.4% | Liberal Democrat |
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| -10.4% | Total votes | 1,886 |
| 61% | 66% | 49% |
Swing Conservative to Green ~ 7% since 2017 otherwise not meaningful Council now 51 Conservative, 10 Labour, 1 Independent Weymouth & Portland, Tophill East - Conservative gain from Independent
Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2011 | since 2010 | Conservative | 362 | 46.9% | +16.6% | +32.6% | +13.4% | +10.6% | Labour | 354 | 45.9% | +23.0% | +28.1% | +25.7% | +18.7% | Green | 56 | 7.3% | -5.3% | +2.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent |
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| -34.3% | -44.3% | -46.3% | -36.6% | UKIP |
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| -19.1% |
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| Total votes | 772 |
| 46% | 65% | 69% | 43% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 15 Conservative, 12 Labour, 5 Liberal Democrat, 1 Green, 1 UKIP, 1 Independent, 1 Vacant Weymouth & Portland, Tophill West - Conservative hold Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | Conservative | 511 | 53.8% | +13.8% | +28.9% | +26.9% | +26.2% | Labour | 356 | 37.5% | -22.4% | +14.4% | +4.4% | +1.0% | Green | 82 | 8.6% | from nowhere | +1.8% | -10.4% | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -21.4% |
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| Independent 1 |
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| -13.4% |
| -29.2% | Independent 2 |
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| -10.4% |
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| Liberal Democrat |
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| -20.9% |
| United People |
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| -6.7% | Total votes | 949 |
| 89% | 39% | 74% | 88% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 18% since 2016, 7¼% since 2015, 11¼% since 2014 and 12½% since 2012
Council now 15 Conservative, 12 Labour, 5 Liberal Democrat, 1 Green, 1 UKIP, 1 Independent, 1 Vacant
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