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Post by carlton43 on Mar 8, 2023 15:36:37 GMT
Carlton is confusing the mentality of normal votes with those of partisan activists. It logically makes sense for a Conservative activist to prefer Labour to have gained a seat than the Lib Dems, as the former would be removed by the swing back of the pendulum, the latter much harder to shift. If Labour had won Colchester in 1997 for example, the Conservatives would have probably gained it in 2005 and if not then certainly in 2010. As it was they had to wait until 2015. Likewise freom the poing of view of a partisan Labour supporter, it is not good for them for the Lib Dems to win a seat where they have themselves been competetive as their support gets squeezed away to nothing and often their local govenment base is destroyed as well (as in eg Bath, St Albans now). These sort of considerations are not going to carry any weight with the vast majority of normal voters who just have a preference for or against a particular party. Overwhelmingly Labour voters are going to see a Lib Dem MP as preferable to a Conservative one and Conservative voters will see a Lib Dem MP as preferable to a Labour one. Lib Dem voters will be more evenly divided, but in 1997 would have skewed quite heavily in Labour's favour. Not really Pete. I know you are right and in your sterling post you set out so well the essential difference between partisan and ordinary voter. One is looking at the political structure of medium to long term and the other rooted entirely in immediacy and the negativity of voting against 'an evil' rather than for 'a good'.
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 8, 2023 13:43:02 GMT
Yeah Labour's national performance pushed them up to 25% of the vote at a time when you needed them squeezed. Referendum Party took 4,000 votes from Howard too but still not enough Yeah, agree both those points. The main point of all those LD posters in Folkestone was to convince wavering Lib/Lab voters which was the way to jump - of course it may have had the effect of making committed Labour voters to grit their teeth and try even harder for Labour. Some of those would prefer a Howard win to a LD one. I would have thought a majority of them? Just as I would prefer Labour to have taken the seat by far over the LDs taking it.
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 7, 2023 10:52:38 GMT
I think Wansbeck being down as 'Rural 75' neatly demonstrates that there are some issues with the idea of 'rural' here. A constituency that consists of little besides Ashington, Bedlington, and Morpeth being rural, let alone 75% rural? North West Durham is maybe 50% rural, Bishop Auckland not even that, and I can assure you that North Durham is definitely not rural (or 'rural') in any way. This is often a problem these days where very few constituencies could be described as genuinely rural but people still like to use the term. Better terms might be ‘non-metropolitan’, ‘regional’ or ‘peripheral’. Certainly, Wansbeck is an almost entirely urban constituency and even somewhere like North West Durham has only a small % of the population living in small villages, with about half living in towns and the remainder living in larger, (post) industrialised large villages. Bishop Auckland is more polarised, having a clear urban and town dwelling majority, but a non-insignificant minority of the population is reasonable to describe as rural thanks to the agricultural villages around Teesdale. What is it that defines a 'Rural Constituency' for most of you? For me it is a fairly large to very large geographical area mainly consisting of farmland, woodland, moorland or similar. Obviously it must have the basic minimum number of electors. They will always tend to live in a very small proportion of that land. Sometimes they will be spread about in a carpet of villages and small towns, but in others they may be concentrated in only a very few locations. Is it the contention of most of you that where the electors cluster in only a few communities that are in themselves of an irban nature, that the constituency must be regarded as urban because most electors are urban?
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 5, 2023 12:49:35 GMT
If it helped relegate Man U or Liverpool on goals scored he probably would be. Imposition of views within parties makes them undemocratic and ultimately feeds into lack of trust in politicians, especially at a national level.I know the media makes an issue of different views but they only get away with that because modern politicians don't have the balls to say this is Government/Council policy but members of our democratic parties including elected members are free to campaign and vote against if they wish. (Cabinet responsibility non withstanding). It is this lack of freedom that will prevent me joining any political party in any future I can see. Parties exist because a group of people with a similar political views band together to advance those views. There are, for every party, certain positions that are non-negotiable, and allowing an elected representative who publicly campaigns against one of those positions to continue representing their party would be actively dangerous, and would to some extent defeat the purpose of the party existing. People who sign up to a party sign up to supporting that party's positions, mostly ones they agree with but also including a few they don't. Now, the position of elected mayors isn't a major issue of dissent that should get someone suspended, but to say that imposition of any view makes a party undemocratic rather defeats the object of parties existing You are of course correct about this and set out the basic reasons well. It is a reason that I have had to leave 'my party' more than once. The painful point of issue arises when one signs up for 'j' and 'k' and has to tolerate and accept the new imposition of 'p' and 'q'! The resignation has to happen when 'p' and 'q' are strongly promoted and 'j' and 'k' are removed. So many of us have suffered that fate.
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 3, 2023 9:38:46 GMT
Byker Lab 46.9% -18.1 Grn 29.7% +15.3 LDm 14.9% +9.2 Con 8.5% -6.5 That is a lot of Labour voters staying at home. Obviously that's a major factor, but the growth of both Green and LibDem vote is quite significant, Compared with last time Green vote up101 and LD vote up 80, whilst Labour down 650 and Tories down 179. Sometimes the numerical change figures tell us more than percentages, and I think this is one of those. You think that those are 'quite significant'? On a 19.2% Turnout? LD vote up by 80? It was a closer than expected contest between two parties, Green and Labour, by fewer than a fifth of the voters! The LD and CON votes were peripheral to the contest and are not signifiers. And it is March and a local government by-election where even a name might have had the most significance on that result?
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 2, 2023 16:05:40 GMT
Rather restrained about Sir Edward Watkin but in fairness his impact was mainly elsewhere. His confrontational approach in the railway industry led to many problems of duplication and poor connections, some of which last to this day. And politically he left so much confusion about his affiliation in later years (at times it seemed he was little more than a single issue MP who'd back anyone to get support for the Channel Tunnel) that the Conservative and Liberal Unionists had a dispute over which had the incumbency rights when he stood down. His fights with J.S. Forbes were legendary though I don't think the division reaches the old Elham Valley Line. I have walked nearly the entire length of the Elham Valley line and a very pleasant walk it was too.
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 28, 2023 0:22:36 GMT
I know it is off topic, but returning to earlier posts, I ended up back at the emergency dentist's on Sunday afternoon (missed both of the Man United goals, sigh). Now fully pain-free for the first time in 5 days. Dental nerve pain is hell, it affected my right eye very badly. Yes that referred pain and allied tension in the head can be very severe. Glad for your relief. Perhaps a little medicinal whisky?
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 26, 2023 14:51:48 GMT
Having said that, I do expect Mike Gapes to apply to rejoin on the very day his five years are finally up. Why does Mike Gapes have to wait five years to rejoin and not Berger? 'Reasons'!!
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 25, 2023 12:58:47 GMT
I am acquainted with that area but do not have the gut feel that our Kincardinshire/Fife correspondent might care to add. But it occurs to me that both SNP and Conservatives will have suffered a significant loss of votes because of the names of their candidates. There are definitely places where that might be an issue. A middle-class bit of Aberdeen wouldn't usually be top of that list, however.* One thing that does interest me about the transfers is the LD to SNP transfers. Locally the LDs are in coalition with the SNP, so I do wonder if that played a role in producing a slightly higher percentage of transfers in that direction than you'd normally expect. *Though the normal way of confirming that this is a factor is to note the difference in support between candidates of the same party in multi-member FPTP elections, and as that isn't how STV elections work the alphabet effect tends to conceal this factor. Note in this very ward the distribution of SNP preferences in 2017 and 2022 depending on whether the same candidate used the surname Samarai or Al-Samarai. It may be, I now feel upon reflection, that the ward is less 'Scottish' and less old, and less staid than I had felt when first posting. This has expanded a lot and been much influenced by oil industry and air flight with many outsiders and young skilled people. If this had been in rural Banff, Moray or Nairn, my strictures would have had much more purchase. There is still a preference for obviously Scottish names and for people born and bred to the area in many settled rural staid wards.
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 24, 2023 23:22:11 GMT
The Lab majority at stage 7 was rather bigger than I had expected- indeed I had on balance thought the SNP would scrape home, and indeed that had been the majority view on the prediction competition. Neverthless several of us had qualified that prediction by saying it would be likely very close. In the event,a majority of 242 wasn't that close, and it was predominantly down to the 5 012 Con>Lab transfers at stage 7. Or rather the massive 457 netted at that stage. Really not a lot of Tory-Tartantory transfers. Probably. But note Labour pulling gradually away from the Tories. I am acquainted with that area but do not have the gut feel that our Kincardinshire/Fife correspondent might care to add. But it occurs to me that both SNP and Conservatives will have suffered a significant loss of votes because of the names of their candidates.
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 24, 2023 23:16:32 GMT
I fully empathise with you. I'm still aching with the short-term pain of one tooth removed for the long-term gain of preserving the other 27. (well, the four next to the duff tooth) Not slept for two nights due to hige jaw pain. Emergency dentist today, which helped a lot, but will have to decide between more root canal work or tooth extraction. Sweet joy. I empathize with you and hope that the decision is fairly easy to make after gaining concise advice from the dentist. Best wishes for good pain control and a fully satisfactory outcome.
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 23, 2023 23:27:58 GMT
Carlton43 - the man who wants us to have plaque on our teeth. Is there any limit to his fiendishness? I am and have been a victim of plaque and that is largely self-induced I believe. In the midst of a course of long, invasive and rather expensive gum, jaw, roof of mouth and teeth deep seated cleaning to preserve my teeth into further old age. I would never wish that on others.
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 23, 2023 21:50:47 GMT
Don't ask! Don't tell! To coin a phrase. In another life and another age. The way we were! I suppose one might add an act of arson in party HQ or defacing the portraits of our dear Queen or the PM? (I refer of course to Victoria and Disraeli) I guess illicit sex with the wife and the daughter got you a plaque in the Con club, simultaneously gets you a statue outside It was a casual throw-away remark not even based in overheard annecdote at that time or since. As for that plaque, I think it best reserved for teeth rather than walls.
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 23, 2023 10:30:40 GMT
I remember the heady days of High Thatcherism, when in the South East, the Conservatives ran quite a few ex-Labour councillors as candidates. Later in the pub the day after the elections there were three elected who had not expected to be even close. I said "By the way chaps do check to ensure you have cancelled any standing orders or direct debits to Labour won't you!" Two found that they were still subscribers. The Conservatives then were not very concerned by such niceties and it was very unusual to get expelled for anything except illicit sex with a wife or daughter of a member of the Executive Committee. I don’t think you can let that last sentence hang there without further background Don't ask! Don't tell! To coin a phrase. In another life and another age. The way we were! I suppose one might add an act of arson in party HQ or defacing the portraits of our dear Queen or the PM? (I refer of course to Victoria and Disraeli)
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 23, 2023 0:15:41 GMT
Don't you need to be a Labour member to be a candidate? That would imply that he's running as a Conservative while a member of Labour? Indeed, very odd. We had a similar situation in the early '80s in North Reddish, where the Conservative candidate turned out to be an SDP member who had tried for selection in another ward for that party. He hadn't been a councillor though. I remember the heady days of High Thatcherism, when in the South East, the Conservatives ran quite a few ex-Labour councillors as candidates. Later in the pub the day after the elections there were three elected who had not expected to be even close. I said "By the way chaps do check to ensure you have cancelled any standing orders or direct debits to Labour won't you!" Two found that they were still subscribers. The Conservatives then were not very concerned by such niceties and it was very unusual to get expelled for anything except illicit sex with a wife or daughter of a member of the Executive Committee.
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 22, 2023 12:28:49 GMT
That's a superb name for the top Tory candidate. Yes, all too easy to misread it as Massey-Bloodbath. Go the whole hog and use Massive-Bloodbath.
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 21, 2023 16:54:10 GMT
You must have been holding them upside-down. I think the cartoons are copyright but a quick web search using John Major pants outside shirt (or similar) will get you some images. The image was sufficiently widespread that when his affair with Currie was revealed she was asked about the veracity of the claim, I think! Trousers I think you will find with the shirt inside the trousers? But maybe not and frankly don't care much anyway.
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 21, 2023 16:26:52 GMT
I think that is right. A lot of people thought Major was well meaning; and even had a bit of sympathy with his having to deal with "the bastards" (as he called them) who made his life as PM miserable later on. The worst that "spitting Image" could come up with was that he was grey and liked peas. His back story - growing up in Brixton, leaving school at 16 - was also rather different to Mr Sunak's.
The one big thing that Major and Sunak seem to have in common is that their brexiteer "ultras" were trying to dictate policy (in fact it is some of the same people then as now).
He was illustrated wearing his Y fronts outside his shirt in cartoons. You must have been holding them upside-down.
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 13, 2023 15:31:49 GMT
If he seriously thinks Kier Starmer is going to end culture war he needs his head checking. It is a serious issue but labour have been guilty of engaging in culture wars as much as the tories. That was a remark for the Metropolitan Labour elite consumption to make himself fit in and to try and convince himself that there are cohate reasons for his switch other that just being utterly pissed off with a party that has given away every advantage and every opportunity by getting just about every political decision for three year as wrong as they can and then seeking non-conservative ways of actively seeking to make it all even worse.
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 13, 2023 14:25:54 GMT
Why do people think the Scottish working class largely abandoned Labour for the SNP but the same phenomenon didn't happen in Wales with PC? Lack of clarity, precision and focus with objectives. A nagging internal doubt that an independent country could succeed. A nagging doubt that they could actually run a country at all. Rather poor quality MPs most of the time.
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