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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 21, 2023 9:21:56 GMT
Possible winning strategy for the Tories - campaign on issues which appeals to the older White British population in 1930s Outer London suburbia, well-off social conservative ethnic minority population in NW London and the well-off in South West London. 1. Campaign against ULEZ and other possible anti-car measures which could be implemented by Labour (road pricing, outer London boundary charge, congestion charge expansion, increase in car park charges, restrictions on parking permits, more cycle lane and more 20 mph roads) 2. Focus on the rise in crime and general lawlessness under Sadiq's Khan. 3. Focus on the rise in criminality on public transport. I have personally encountered many fare dodgers jumping the barriers or weirdos harassing other passengers on the train in the recent months. 4. Campaign against ugly new developments and tower blocks which are being built in various suburban locations across Greater London. 5. Policies to reverse the decline of Oxford Street and other high streets in London. 6. TFL mis-management and lack of investment. 7. Campaign against Khan's pointless virtue signalling e.g. 'The Say Maaate to a Mate' adverts. 8. The huge increases to the GLA / Mayoral / whatever its called charge added to council tax. Over two thirds of the precept goes to fund the Metropolitan Police, so your point 8 goes immediately against point 2. And until recently it was nearer to three quarters of the precept going to the police; it's only come down because the government has forced the Mayor to increase the precept to fund TfL. Conservatives have to face the facts here which is that since 2016 they have done everything possible in government to cause problems for the GLA and force the Mayor to charge Londoners more. Imposition and extension of the ULEZ was something Grant Shapps insisted upon, for instance.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 21, 2023 0:53:15 GMT
35,886 BPs verified.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 21, 2023 0:50:27 GMT
Does anybody know what the turnout is? I don’t want to be told that it’s 44.23% A precise number of BPs verified would be helpful, yes.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 21, 2023 0:28:13 GMT
Sky just went live to the count in Ruislip and not many of the counters appear to be doing anything.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 21, 2023 0:07:16 GMT
Shaun Ley of the BBC has grown a beard, thereby making him look older. For contrast, here's Shaun Ley looking younger.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 20, 2023 23:48:54 GMT
WORCESTER Nunnery
WILLMORE, Elaine Grace (Labour) 1,048 DITTA, Allah (Conservative) 518 BUTLER, Scott (Liberal Democrat) ? CARNEY, David Paul (Independent) ?
Partial result
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 20, 2023 23:30:57 GMT
Ketton and Tinwell (Rutland UA) votes Yes:
Yes 520 No 35
Turnout 32.31%
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 20, 2023 23:20:39 GMT
CEREDIGION Llanfarian
EVANS, David Raymond (Liberal Democrat) 298 DEAKIN, Karen Joan (Plaid Cymru) 290 PARKER, Jack Kevin (Conservative) 30
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 20, 2023 23:16:26 GMT
BREAKING: Shaun Ley is reported to now have a beard.
More on this disturbing development as we get it.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 20, 2023 23:01:32 GMT
This seems to be a rounded figure - the precise number of ballot papers tallied is reported as 31,002.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 20, 2023 16:29:26 GMT
I see from the Court Circular that His Majesty the King held a council yesterday at 4pm. This was the first opportunity to submit the new boundaries for adoption but it normally takes a couple of days for the papers to be published. Update: Not discussed on 19 July. Boundaries will have to wait for September.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 20, 2023 15:07:31 GMT
Have often wondered what would happen if people in Britain were asked this standard question from US polls.
Happen to think it's a completely useless question because it implies everyone saying 'No' has agreed on an obvious alternative direction, which of course they haven't.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 20, 2023 11:12:59 GMT
Selby and Ainsty, and Somerton and Frome, each had combined local elections in 2015 only. Uxbridge and South Ruislip had combined local elections in 2010 only.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 20, 2023 9:42:53 GMT
Recent form guide suggests that you might want to get some shut-eye earlier in the night and get up early in the morning. Constituency | 2010 | 2015 | 2017 | 2019 | Selby and Ainsty | 6.00 AM | 6.04 AM | 3.20 AM | 3.45 AM | Somerton and Frome | 5.10 AM | 5.37 AM | 2.46 AM | 5.16 AM | Uxbridge and South Ruislip | 4.15 AM | 4.30 AM | 2.48 AM | 3.40 AM |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 20, 2023 8:04:30 GMT
Finally got the electorate stats to match the known total electorates in the old and new seats. There are two existing constituencies which form the base seats for two others: • Hitchin and Harpenden is the base for both Harpenden and Berkhamsted (50.4%) and Hitchin (56.1%) • Huntingdon is the base for both Huntingdon (67.1%) and for St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire (43.7%) • South Norfolk is the base for both South Norfolk (80.7%) and for Waveney Valley (40.7%) Note that Lowestoft CC is based on the current Waveney constituency. Waveney Valley does take part of Waveney but it's only 7,103 voters out of 81,070 and makes up only 10.1% of the new seat (70,540 total electorate) - it's the fourth biggest contributor from the five current seats which make up Waveney Valley. Five constituencies are completely unchanged: Epping Forest, Great Yarmouth, Ipswich, North East Hertfordshire, Stevenage For the others, the index of change is: Constituency | Index of Change | Brentwood and Ongar CC | 0.2 | Welwyn Hatfield CC | 0.5 | Peterborough CC | 1.3 | North Norfolk CC | 1.5 | Castle Point BC | 2.3 | Norwich South BC | 2.4 | Bedford BC | 3.3 | Rayleigh and Wickford CC | 3.5 | St Albans CC | 4.3 | South Suffolk CC | 4.6 | Chelmsford BC | 5.4 | Maldon CC | 6.0 | North West Norfolk CC | 6.1 | Broadland and Fakenham CC | 6.7 | Luton North BC | 7.6 | Cambridge BC | 7.7 | Harlow CC | 7.7 | Norwich North BC | 7.8 | Clacton CC | 7.9 | Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard CC | 8.2 | Hertford and Stortford CC | 8.3 | Lowestoft CC | 8.8 | Thurrock BC | 8.8 | Colchester BC | 8.8 | Suffolk Coastal CC | 9.7 | Basildon and Billericay BC | 9.7 | Southend West and Leigh BC | 11.7 | Witham CC | 11.8 | North West Essex CC | 11.9 | South West Norfolk CC | 12.3 | Hertsmere CC | 14.0 | Southend East and Rochford CC | 14.3 | Broxbourne CC | 15.3 | North East Cambridgeshire CC | 15.7 | Luton South and South Bedfordshire CC | 16.9 | West Suffolk CC | 17.1 | Harwich and North Essex CC | 17.4 | Braintree CC | 18.2 | Mid Bedfordshire CC | 19.3 | South Basildon and East Thurrock CC | 20.7 | Hemel Hempstead CC | 23.1 | Mid Norfolk CC | 23.4 | North Bedfordshire CC | 26.1 | Central Suffolk and North Ipswich CC | 27.8 | North West Cambridgeshire CC | 28.9 | Watford BC | 29.3 | Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket CC | 33.2 | South Norfolk CC | 50.4 | Ely and East Cambridgeshire CC | 54.2 | South Cambridgeshire CC | 62.2 | Huntingdon CC | 69.6 | South West Hertfordshire CC | 76.4 | Hitchin CC | 88.5 | Harpenden and Berkhamsted CC | 99.2 | St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire CC | 111.1 | Waveney Valley CC | 115.1 |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 20, 2023 7:49:39 GMT
I have never visited this constituency but is the Ruislip part of this seat comparable to neighbourhoods such as Sidcup, Welling, Orpington, North Cheam, Worcester Park or West Ewell? The sort of Outer London neighbourhoods characterised by its 1930s suburbia and population with high home and car ownership, C1/C2 social class, high White British population and older than the London average. It's broadly similar in terms of housing stock, tenure and car ownership, but not in terms of population. The ethnic mix includes a much higher Asian proportion.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 19, 2023 23:37:27 GMT
I see from the Court Circular that His Majesty the King held a council yesterday at 4pm. This was the first opportunity to submit the new boundaries for adoption but it normally takes a couple of days for the papers to be published.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 18, 2023 13:32:47 GMT
The Tories' candidate for CSU President, who lost to the Liberals, is now Sir Ernest Ryder. Whose most recent job is Legal Adviser to the Committee on Privileges of the House of Commons.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 17, 2023 13:16:12 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 17, 2023 13:11:58 GMT
Back in the day the Gallup/Daily Telegraph figures used to be given to the nearest half. That was a bit more honest, or do I mean statistically significant.
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