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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 26, 2023 8:55:20 GMT
Not sure if anyone has noticed, but there appears to be a detached part of Ely and East Cambs containing Cambridge North railway station. Yes. We had noticed. It's because of a detached part of Milton parish, which appears to have been created by the 1934 enlargement of the City of Cambridge.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 25, 2023 22:49:20 GMT
If I was the deep state, I'd lump every batshit conspiracy theory into one two-minute video and badge it as a campaign commercial for Trump.
Just saying.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 25, 2023 17:04:11 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 24, 2023 11:32:14 GMT
It reads to me like something Danczuk made up based on either nothing, or a lighthearted suggestion from a Conservative friend, and that he gave it to the Sunday Express journalist to keep his name in the papers. He has no way back in the Labour Party so he might as well. But working out whether this would be a good idea, based on the results of the 2017 general election in Rochdale, are left as an exercise for the reader.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 24, 2023 9:39:50 GMT
I see @leftiestats is on the ball as usual. Houchen is in Parliament, having been created Baron Houchen of High Leven on 12 July. He's due to be introduced this very afternoon.
Which means he won't be contesting any elections for the House of Commons in the near future ..
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 23, 2023 21:07:35 GMT
May be based on nothing but the Sunday Express claims this:
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 23, 2023 20:48:26 GMT
One underlying problem with the "Uxbridge proves we must junk Net Zero" thesis is that ULEZ is really about air pollution, not Carbon emissions.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 23, 2023 14:09:59 GMT
Dudley West 1994: "Labour actually polled fewer votes in the byelection than they did in the 1992 general election; all this proves is Conservative voters are staying at home" South East Staffordshire 1996: "Labour only got 4,000 more votes than the last general election; they're just not getting a lot of extra voters"
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 23, 2023 10:39:08 GMT
Very much the latter. Main opposition party was refused the chance to register to contest it. Hun Sen already preparing for his son Hun Manet to take over whenever he feels like it.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 22, 2023 21:16:10 GMT
Chorley has similar Census statistics to neighbouring seats South Ribble and West Lancashire, both of which had swings of about 3% in 2019. If that had been the result, Hoyle would have won by a 6-8% margin, probably 3-4,000 votes.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 22, 2023 20:39:31 GMT
Has there been a rush of Independents winning seats? I've not noticed it. The fact the LGA proportionality has the Independent group at the highest level ever is largely because of gains by the Green Party, not by Independents.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 22, 2023 18:52:38 GMT
The North East is reduced by two seats. The two old constituencies which are not the base constituency for any new constituency are Blaydon and North Tyneside. Two constituencies are unchanged: Hartlepool and Sunderland Central. The Index of Change for each changed seat is: Constituency | Index of change | Darlington CC | 5.6 | Redcar BC | 7.4 | North Durham CC | 9.1 | South Shields BC | 11.0 | Houghton and Sunderland South CC | 11.5 | Stockton North CC | 13.1 | Easington CC | 14.2 | Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland BC | 16.6 | Hexham CC | 18.5 | Tynemouth BC | 19.7 | Jarrow and Gateshead East BC | 30.2 | City of Durham CC | 30.7 | North Northumberland CC | 30.8 | Middlesbrough and Thornaby East BC | 31.0 | Washington and Gateshead South BC | 32.1 | Stockton West CC | 37.3 | Gateshead Central and Whickham BC | 50.6 | Bishop Auckland CC | 52.9 | Blyth and Ashington CC | 72.1 | Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor CC | 72.3 | Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West BC | 73.8 | Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend BC | 82.8 | Blaydon and Consett CC | 99.2 | Cramlington and Killingworth CC | 102.8 | Newcastle upon Tyne North BC | 125.2 |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 22, 2023 15:37:18 GMT
TfL have planned a policy they consider will have a meaningful iimpact, on the basis of best estimates about vehicles affected and driver behaviour. Individual car owners being mistaken about their liability or wrongly forecasting their own behaviour doesn't affect the reliability of the planning, does it? But if the policy is not going to achieve anything of substance (financially or environmentally as you indicated) I wrote nothing of the sort. It's these basic failure of English comprehension on your part which identify you as a troll and not a serious contributor here.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 22, 2023 14:42:43 GMT
One of the main problems with the ULEZ extension is that lots of people think they're going to have to pay it when actually they won't. Past experience also suggests opposition is very big before these sorts of schemes are started, but fades very quickly when they are brought in. Well if that is the case then a: there will be no significant impact on pollution in London.....and b; TFL will still have a massive black hole in their finances. TfL have planned a policy they consider will have a meaningful iimpact, on the basis of best estimates about vehicles affected and driver behaviour. Individual car owners being mistaken about their liability or wrongly forecasting their own behaviour doesn't affect the reliability of the planning, does it?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 22, 2023 11:57:12 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 22, 2023 11:21:48 GMT
One of the main problems with the ULEZ extension is that lots of people think they're going to have to pay it when actually they won't. Past experience also suggests opposition is very big before these sorts of schemes are started, but fades very quickly when they are brought in. OK, but it’s Khan’s role to communicate that they won’t have to pay it, no? As someone who voted for him in 2021, I’m surprised at the seeming absence of a bigger public awareness drive. People, understandably, fear the unknown. He did. But in Uxbridge he was up against a very intense campaign from opponents who were doing all they could to try to persuade the maximum number of people that they would be hit by it. Simple human psychology is that a message "you could have to pay £thousands" is likely to be read as "you will have to pay £thousands".
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 22, 2023 9:00:36 GMT
Before 2022, 1986 was the last time that Labour seriously challenged Conservative control in Wandsworth and Westminster. After this, the Tories took Battersea in 1987, and easily held both councils in the 1990 local elections. Complete fail in respect of Westbourne and West End wards of the City of Westminster.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 22, 2023 8:49:44 GMT
One of the main problems with the ULEZ extension is that lots of people think they're going to have to pay it when actually they won't. Past experience also suggests opposition is very big before these sorts of schemes are started, but fades very quickly when they are brought in.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 21, 2023 16:27:53 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 21, 2023 10:31:09 GMT
Can I be the first to say that it turns out a single duff interview at the start of the campaign does not doom a byelection candidate.
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