Adrian
Co-operative Party
Posts: 1,726
|
Post by Adrian on Nov 19, 2019 22:12:42 GMT
A map that only shows the seats that are predicted to change hands (since 2017) would also be good.
|
|
|
Post by syorkssocialist on Nov 19, 2019 23:16:35 GMT
Here is an updated one showing the seats the forum expects to change hands, based on 2017 winners and excluding constituencies where the poll is currently tied.
Predicted Con gains: Vale of Clwyd Wrexham Clwyd South Rother Valley Great Grimsby Keighley Penistone and Stocksbridge Colne Valley Wakefield Warwick and Leamington Newcastle under Lyme Dudley North Stoke on Trent North Canterbury Portsmouth South Crewe and Nantwich Weaver Vale Blackpool South Bolton North East Warrington South Barrow and Furness Stockton South Darlington Bishop Auckland Kensington Derby North Lincoln High Peak Bassetlaw Ipswich North Norfolk Bedford Peterborough
Predicted LD gains: Ceredigion North East Fife Sheffield Hallam Leeds North West St Ives Cheltenham Guildford Winchester Hazel Grove Cheadle Richmond Park Finchley and Golders Green St Albans Cambridge South Cambridgeshire
Predicted SNP gains: Rutherglen and Hamilton West Stirling Aberdeen South Ochil & South Perthshire Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath Glasgow North East Midlothian
Predicted PC gain: Ynys Mon
Predicted Independent gain: Ashfield
Predicted SDLP gains: Foyle Belfast South
Predicted Alliance gain: North Down
|
|
|
Post by casualobserver on Nov 19, 2019 23:54:05 GMT
Thurrock would be a Conservative hold , not a conservative gain.
|
|
|
Post by syorkssocialist on Nov 20, 2019 0:04:59 GMT
Ack, I knew I'd messed one up. Thanks for pointing that out, will fix the map in the morning.
|
|
|
Post by andrewteale on Nov 23, 2019 18:30:26 GMT
Warrington 2016. Lab 45 LD 11 C 2. New ward boundaries. Split wards in 2016 were: Westbrook: LD/Lab
|
|
|
Post by π΄ββ οΈ Neath West π΄ββ οΈ on Nov 23, 2019 21:40:20 GMT
Warrington 2016. Lab 45 LD 11 C 2. New ward boundaries. Split wards in 2016 were: Westbrook: LD/Lab But presumably a very old Cheshire/Lancashire boundary emerging in the results.
|
|
Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,206
|
Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 23, 2019 22:40:01 GMT
Warrington 2016. Lab 45 LD 11 C 2. New ward boundaries. Split wards in 2016 were: Westbrook: LD/Lab But presumably a very old Cheshire/Lancashire boundary emerging in the results. That looks like the ship canal rather than the Mersey, but perhaps the two are the same there?
|
|
Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,545
|
Post by Khunanup on Nov 23, 2019 23:07:26 GMT
But presumably a very old Cheshire/Lancashire boundary emerging in the results. That looks like the ship canal rather than the Mersey, but perhaps the two are the same there? Yes. Ship Canal that is separate from the Mersey throughout Warrington. Not much population between the Ship Canal & the Mersey though so the old county boundary division in voting patterns is fair.
|
|
Adrian
Co-operative Party
Posts: 1,726
|
Post by Adrian on Nov 24, 2019 1:13:06 GMT
The Mersey hasn't been the county boundary at Warrington since the 1890s.
|
|
|
Post by David Ashforth on Nov 27, 2019 22:22:09 GMT
|
|
|
Post by andrewteale on Nov 28, 2019 23:45:33 GMT
Southend-on-Sea 2019. Changes based on 2015: Ind gain from C Blenheim Park Shoeburyness Southchurch Lab gain from C Milton St Laurence LD gain from C Eastwood Park Leigh West Leigh Note that the Conservatives polled the most votes across the district, but won fewer seats than Labour or the independents. Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Belfairs is 2C/1Ind and the independent is up in 2020. Blenheim Park is C/Ind/Labour and the Conservatives are defending in 2020. Eastwood Park is 2C/1LD and the Conservatives are defending in 2020. St Laurence is 2C/1Lab and the Conservatives are defending in 2020. Southchurch is 2C/1Ind and the Conservatives are defending in 2020. West Leigh is 2C/1LD and the Conservatives are defending in 2020.
|
|
|
Post by David Ashforth on Nov 29, 2019 14:32:29 GMT
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Nov 29, 2019 20:08:10 GMT
|
|
|
Post by syorkssocialist on Dec 4, 2019 15:33:02 GMT
The forum's predictions eight days before polling day, with the expected results for constituencies without polls.
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Dec 4, 2019 19:12:31 GMT
Constituencies grouped by age:-
/photo/1
|
|
|
Post by David Ashforth on Dec 4, 2019 20:15:16 GMT
|
|
|
Post by David Ashforth on Dec 6, 2019 10:39:59 GMT
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Dec 6, 2019 15:22:46 GMT
Weirdly, a lot of their demographic figures seem off, especially for ethnic composition and income (just at a glance: Aberdeen North, Exeter, Thurrock, Chippenham all look off).
|
|
|
Post by David Ashforth on Dec 8, 2019 10:26:46 GMT
Weirdly, a lot of their demographic figures seem off, especially for ethnic composition and income (just at a glance: Aberdeen North, Exeter, Thurrock, Chippenham all look off). That's a shame if the figures are wrong, it looked quite interesting.
|
|
|
Post by David Ashforth on Dec 8, 2019 10:27:25 GMT
|
|