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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 8, 2019 12:27:52 GMT
Weirdly, a lot of their demographic figures seem off, especially for ethnic composition and income (just at a glance: Aberdeen North, Exeter, Thurrock, Chippenham all look off). That's a shame if the figures are wrong, it looked quite interesting. The demographic figures aren't massively wrong, but they vary between 2015 and 2017 (and are very different from the census). Initially I thought they might be estimates of the demographics in 2015 and 2017, but in so many constituencies the changes seem unrealistic. I'd still say the figures are fine if you just want a rough idea of trends, but I wouldn't say the individual constituency figures are cast iron.
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Post by syorkssocialist on Dec 12, 2019 0:38:49 GMT
The forum's polling day prediction for the 2019 general election
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 12, 2019 0:53:03 GMT
The forum's polling day prediction for the 2019 general election Were there any tied results?
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Post by syorkssocialist on Dec 12, 2019 0:56:26 GMT
Nope
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 13, 2019 22:33:00 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 13, 2019 23:39:20 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 14, 2019 10:46:29 GMT
Leading party by local authority (with a few guestimates)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 14, 2019 11:37:53 GMT
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Post by minionofmidas on Dec 14, 2019 13:51:49 GMT
Decline or rise in the Tory vote share. This is comparing rounded percentages, so is not very mathematically correct. Grey is unchanged. Some of the >10 figures are well over 10, although these are all in special circumstances seats (eg Thurrock with the high UKIP vote last time, North Norfolk with the unwind of a huge personal vote for the retiring LD incumbent, Chorley where the Tories did not stand against the new Speaker in a seat they might well have won yesterday).
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Dec 14, 2019 17:44:14 GMT
Leading party by local authority (with a few guestimates) Just guessing, but I’d have thought it possible that we carried the City of London.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 14, 2019 18:10:49 GMT
Don't think you did.
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Post by lancastrian on Dec 14, 2019 21:53:59 GMT
Decline or rise in the Tory vote share. This is comparing rounded percentages, so is not very mathematically correct. Grey is unchanged. Some of the >10 figures are well over 10, although these are all in special circumstances seats (eg Thurrock with the high UKIP vote last time, North Norfolk with the unwind of a huge personal vote for the retiring LD incumbent, Chorley where the Tories did not stand against the new Speaker in a seat they might well have won yesterday). Unfortunately the image isn't showing.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Dec 14, 2019 22:31:44 GMT
Tories winning every ward except Churchill do you reckon?
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Post by andrewteale on Dec 14, 2019 22:41:59 GMT
Wokingham 2019. Changes based on 2015: Ind gain from C Shinfield South Lab gain from C Bulmershe and Whitegates LD gain from C Emmbrook Evendons Hawkedon Hillside Maiden Erlegh Twyford Wescott Winnersh Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Emmbrook is 2LD/1C and the Conservatives are defending in 2020. Evendons is 2LD/1C and the Conservatives are defending in 2020. Hillside is 2C/1LD and the Conservatives are defending in 2020. Maiden Erlegh is 2C/1LD and the Conservatives are defending in 2020. Norreys is 2C/1Lab and the Conservatives are defending in 2020. Shinfield South is 2C/1Ind and the Conservatives are defending in 2020. Wescott is C/LD and the Conservatives are defending in 2020.
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Post by minionofmidas on Dec 15, 2019 16:33:23 GMT
Decline or rise in the Tory vote share. This is comparing rounded percentages, so is not very mathematically correct. Grey is unchanged. Some of the >10 figures are well over 10, although these are all in special circumstances seats (eg Thurrock with the high UKIP vote last time, North Norfolk with the unwind of a huge personal vote for the retiring LD incumbent, Chorley where the Tories did not stand against the new Speaker in a seat they might well have won yesterday). Unfortunately the image isn't showing.
I notice I compared 2017 with 2015 (rather than 2019 with 2017) in South Shields. Too lazy to edit the map, but this actually saw a sizable drop in the Tory vote.
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Post by andrewteale on Dec 15, 2019 17:28:00 GMT
North East Lincolnshire 2019. Changes based on 2015: C gain from Lab Croft Baker Freshney Immingham Yarborough C gain from LD Park LD gain from Lab East Marsh UKIP won the by-election seat in South. Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Croft Baker is 2C/1Lab and Labour are defending in 2020. Freshney is 2C/1Lab and Labour are defending in 2020. Immingham is 2C/1Lab and Labour are defending in 2020. South is 3Lab but UKIP have gained a seat in a by-election and will defend it in 2020.
Yarborough is 2C/1Lab and Labour are defending in 2020.
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Post by nw12398 on Dec 15, 2019 18:18:56 GMT
I have no intention of implying that this has any meaning about "who really won the election", but I thought this would be interesting to see.
I'm currently working on a certain counterpart to this which will look very red.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 15, 2019 18:21:25 GMT
I have no intention of implying that this has any meaning about "who really won the election", but I thought this would be interesting to see. I'm currently working on a certain counterpart to this which will look very red. You nearly gave me a heart attack with all those Lib Dem seats.
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Post by lancastrian on Dec 16, 2019 0:36:53 GMT
In the hopefully temporary absence of the Boundary Assistant site, are there any easily colourable ward maps around?
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Dec 16, 2019 8:51:34 GMT
In the hopefully temporary absence of the Boundary Assistant site, are there any easily colourable ward maps around? Yes. There are loads of SVG ward maps on Wikimedia Commons.
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