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Post by afleitch on Feb 5, 2020 18:07:56 GMT
Absolutely The Scottish Unionist party is not Conservative in any meaningful sense Part of my difficulty with it It's also historically more subservient than it's Welsh counterpart. For all the cries of the SNP 'blaming everything on England' the SCons run to nurse to be told they are good boys.
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Post by jimboo2017 on Feb 5, 2020 18:58:57 GMT
Absolutely The Scottish Unionist party is not Conservative in any meaningful sense Part of my difficulty with it It's also historically more subservient than it's Welsh counterpart. For all the cries of the SNP 'blaming everything on England' the SCons run to nurse to be told they are good boys. Er, Scottish Unionist Party is the voice of "Ra Ludge" founded in 1986 in opposition to Thatcher and the Anglo Irish Agreement
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Feb 5, 2020 19:35:17 GMT
SNP incompetence in government is no reason to oppose Independence. An Independent Scotland might be governed by a party other than the SNP, or by those SNP parliamentarians currently employed in Westminster. But by God, they are incompetent. An independent Scotland would almost certainly be governed by a party other than the SNP, at least beyond the initial phase, in my view. The SNP is a big tent made up of (mostly) independence supporters who actually support the SNP's general programme, some who would vote Labour if they had a credible platform, some ex-Lib Dem voters who lost trust in them during the UK coalition, some who are right of centre economically but can't support the Conservative's social/constitutional policies, some who would vote Green/Socialist/other smaller parties but feel obliged to vote SNP under the present system and some who don't agree with the SNP platform at all other than independence. Independence would require parties looking to govern to move beyond the constitution, unless re-unification became an issue, and that would cause a huge realignment among voters. I believe the Conservatives would have a much better chance of winning an election in an independent Scotland as they wouldn't have to worry about any perceptions about the London-based Tories and the eventual need for a divide long either (or both of) economic or social issues, which hasn't been the case in Scotland since 1970 (at the latest) with devolution/independence being a major factor in voting ever since. Additionally, the main focus of all parties will be at Holyrood rather than having some/all of the big names at Westminster - such as Labour until 2015. The Labour/Lib Dem coalition between 1999 and 2007 would've been very different had it included the Scottish-based MPs from both parties.
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Post by jimboo2017 on Feb 5, 2020 21:33:57 GMT
SNP incompetence in government is no reason to oppose Independence. An Independent Scotland might be governed by a party other than the SNP, or by those SNP parliamentarians currently employed in Westminster. But by God, they are incompetent. An independent Scotland would almost certainly be governed by a party other than the SNP, at least beyond the initial phase, in my view. The SNP is a big tent made up of (mostly) independence supporters who actually support the SNP's general programme, some who would vote Labour if they had a credible platform, some ex-Lib Dem voters who lost trust in them during the UK coalition, some who are right of centre economically but can't support the Conservative's social/constitutional policies, some who would vote Green/Socialist/other smaller parties but feel obliged to vote SNP under the present system and some who don't agree with the SNP platform at all other than independence. Independence would require parties looking to govern to move beyond the constitution, unless re-unification became an issue, and that would cause a huge realignment among voters. I believe the Conservatives would have a much better chance of winning an election in an independent Scotland as they wouldn't have to worry about any perceptions about the London-based Tories and the eventual need for a divide long either (or both of) economic or social issues, which hasn't been the case in Scotland since 1970 (at the latest) with devolution/independence being a major factor in voting ever since. Additionally, the main focus of all parties will be at Holyrood rather than having some/all of the big names at Westminster - such as Labour until 2015. The Labour/Lib Dem coalition between 1999 and 2007 would've been very different had it included the Scottish-based MPs from both parties. Plus 750,000 Ulster Scots Refugees pissed off with us all
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Feb 26, 2020 9:41:03 GMT
This has been quietly put on the YouGov archive:
Base: 2,587 people aged 18+
If another Scottish Independence Referendum were held today, how would you vote? Yes to an independent Scotland - 45% No to an independent Scotland - 46% I will not vote - 6% I am not registered to vote - 2%
Should the Scottish Parliament be able to unilaterally call a referendum on independence? Yes – as long as there is a majority in the Scottish Parliament for a referendum it should be allowed - 49% No – it’s right that a referendum has to be called in conjunction with the UK Parliament - 51%
Being a non-standard VI question it's not directly comparable to previous YouGov polls, but it's inline with the polling we've seen since the general election.
The 'unilateral' holding of a referendum question is, IMO, somewhat leading as, for example, I think the Scottish Parliament should be able to hold a referendum without Westminster's consent but also thinking it's right for a referendum to be held with Westminster's consent.
There's crossbreaks for combined indyref/EU ref vote (independence VI): Yes/Remain - Yes 90%; No 7% Yes/Leave - Yes 61%; No 34% No/Remain - Yes 27%; No 71% No/Leave - Yes 6%; Leave 92%
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 29, 2020 9:15:26 GMT
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Post by chrisscot1988 on Mar 29, 2020 11:14:15 GMT
The fact there is no longer any obvious Labour to Tory switching, and all additional Labour collapse now moves straight to the SNP (as it did in December when the Tory vote stood largely still) should be a concern for Carlaw and the wider pro-UK cause.
Tories need a Labour recovery to eat into the Nat vote to have any chance of picking up more constituency wins next May.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 29, 2020 11:22:23 GMT
The fact there is no longer any obvious Labour to Tory switching, and all additional Labour collapse now moves straight to the SNP (as it did in December when the Tory vote stood largely still) should be a concern for Carlaw and the wider pro-UK cause. Tories need a Labour recovery to eat into the Nat vote to have any chance of picking up more constituency wins next May. It suggests that with Indyref2 off the agenda, for now, Scotland is coalescing around the largest anti-Tory party.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Mar 29, 2020 11:29:25 GMT
The fact there is no longer any obvious Labour to Tory switching, and all additional Labour collapse now moves straight to the SNP (as it did in December when the Tory vote stood largely still) should be a concern for Carlaw and the wider pro-UK cause. Tories need a Labour recovery to eat into the Nat vote to have any chance of picking up more constituency wins next May. It suggests that with Indyref2 off the agenda, for now, Scotland is coalescing around the largest anti-Tory party. I'd suggest that this shows the same phenomenon as the UK polls (massive Tory lead) i.e. that in a time of national crisis people rally behind the govt unless the latter makes a massive cock-up - which so far, neither Sturgeon nor Johnson has. Trump's apparent poll bump shows that even if you flounder about you get some sort of boost. I expect polls in every other country would show similar results, including China if you could run one. Long-term may be different. Maybe not.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 29, 2020 11:31:54 GMT
It suggests that with Indyref2 off the agenda, for now, Scotland is coalescing around the largest anti-Tory party. I'd suggest that this shows the same phenomenon as the UK polls (massive Tory lead) i.e. that in a time of national crisis people rally behind the govt unless the latter makes a massive cock-up - which so far, neither Sturgeon nor Johnson has. Trump's apparent poll bump shows that even if you flounder about you get some sort of boost. I expect polls in every other country would show similar results, including China if you could run one. Long-term may be different. Maybe not. We need a Wales-only poll showing a boost for Labour to test that hypothesis.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Mar 29, 2020 11:36:24 GMT
I'd suggest that this shows the same phenomenon as the UK polls (massive Tory lead) i.e. that in a time of national crisis people rally behind the govt unless the latter makes a massive cock-up - which so far, neither Sturgeon nor Johnson has. Trump's apparent poll bump shows that even if you flounder about you get some sort of boost. I expect polls in every other country would show similar results, including China if you could run one. Long-term may be different. Maybe not. We need a Wales-only poll showing a boost for Labour to test that hypothesis. Yes, though some caution should be applied there due to the limited nature of the Welsh govt and of its publicity machine compared to Scotland. NI might be a fairer test.
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 29, 2020 11:39:17 GMT
We need a Wales-only poll showing a boost for Labour to test that hypothesis. Yes, though some caution should be applied there due to the limited nature of the Welsh govt and of its publicity machine compared to Scotland. NI might be a fairer test. Given the ever so slightly divided nature of NI politics the results might be rather confusing.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Mar 29, 2020 11:46:34 GMT
Yes, though some caution should be applied there due to the limited nature of the Welsh govt and of its publicity machine compared to Scotland. NI might be a fairer test. Given the ever so slightly divided nature of NI politics the results might be rather confusing. Yes, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a resurgence in the DUP vote at the expense of APNI and UUP.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2020 13:20:53 GMT
My adblocker is taking exception to the Times article for some reason.
If the Greens get trounced I will consider it a successful election regardless of the SNP result. I dislike the Scottish Greens more than I dislike the SNP.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Mar 29, 2020 13:56:22 GMT
My adblocker is taking exception to the Times article for some reason. If the Greens get trounced I will consider it a successful election regardless of the SNP result. I dislike the Scottish Greens more than I dislike the SNP. Greens everywhere should take a pounding as even if people might just about accept crashing the economy to deal with a real crisis, they’re not going to be queuing up to do it all over again for a fake one.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 29, 2020 14:14:55 GMT
The fact there is no longer any obvious Labour to Tory switching, and all additional Labour collapse now moves straight to the SNP (as it did in December when the Tory vote stood largely still) should be a concern for Carlaw and the wider pro-UK cause. Tories need a Labour recovery to eat into the Nat vote to have any chance of picking up more constituency wins next May. I think there's the odd seat we have a chance in, like Angus North and the Mearns and the Banffshire and Buchan Coast, but I do broadly agree with your analysis. To be honest, I find it hard to imagine us gaining the sort of territory we would normally have as, in the Scottish context, a broadly centre right and moderately conservative party, without independence. That's not an argument for Indy, just an observation.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2020 14:53:01 GMT
The fact there is no longer any obvious Labour to Tory switching, and all additional Labour collapse now moves straight to the SNP (as it did in December when the Tory vote stood largely still) should be a concern for Carlaw and the wider pro-UK cause. Tories need a Labour recovery to eat into the Nat vote to have any chance of picking up more constituency wins next May. I think there's the odd seat we have a chance in, like Angus North and the Mearns and the Banffshire and Buchan Coast, but I do broadly agree with your analysis. To be honest, I find it hard to imagine us gaining the sort of territory we would normally have as, in the Scottish context, a broadly centre right and moderately conservative party, without independence. That's not an argument for Indy, just an observation. I think Angus North & Mearns is highly unlikely. My fag packet constituency guesses would be: CON Gain from SNP - Aberdeenshire East, Moray, Banffshire & Buchan Coast SNP Gain from CON - Ayr, Edinburgh Central SNP Gain from LAB - East Lothian, Dumbarton Lib Dems keep their current four.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Mar 31, 2020 16:50:47 GMT
The crosstabs have been put online now, so for the record: Constituency: SNP 51; Con 26; Lab 14; Lib 6; Grn 3; Oth <1 Regional: SNP 48; Con 26; Lab 13; Lib 6; Grn 6; Oth 1 Independence: Yes 46; No 47; DK 7 (49-51)
Constituency vote by current independence preference: - Yes: SNP 87; Lab 8; Grn 3; Lib 1; Con <1; Oth <1
- No: Con 57; Lab 20; Lib 11; SNP 9; Grn 2; Oth <1
Regional vote by current independence preference: - Yes: SNP 81; Grn 9; Lab 6; Oth 2; Con 2; Lib <1
- No: Con 54; Lab 21; Lib 12; SNP 9; Grn 3; Oth <1
Constituency vote by 2016 EU referendum vote: - Remain: SNP 59; Lab 16; Con 14; Lib 8; Grn 3
- Leave: Con 53; SNP 32; Lab 10; Lib 2; Oth 2 Grn 1
Regional vote by 2016 EU referendum vote: - Remain: SNP 55; Lab 15; Con 14; Lib 8; Grn 8; Oth 1
- Leave: Con 51; SNP 32; Lab 10; Grn 3; Lib 2; Oth 2
This poll contains the single most bizarre question I've probably ever seen: "On balance, does the coronavirus/COVID-19 situation make you more likely to support or oppose Scottish independence?" The result is pointless, as it showed 60% said it makes to difference (IMO, the correct answer) and those who claim it did make one break in favour of their existing preference.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on May 2, 2020 11:34:54 GMT
YouGov (24-27 Apr)
Scottish Parliament (changes compared to 29 Nov-3 Dec) SNP 54/45 (+8/+8) Con 23/23 (-3/-2) Lab 12/12 (-2/-2) Lib 8/7 (-3/-3) Grn 2/8 (+1/nc) Oth 1/5 (+1/-1)
Seat calculation is SNP 68 (+5 on 2016), Con 30 (-1), Lab 13 (-11), Grn 10 (+4), Lib 8 (+3).
Westminster Parliament (changes compared to general election) SNP 51 (+6) Con 25 (nc) Lab 15 (-4) Lib 6 (-4) Grn 2 (+1) Brx 0 (nc) Oth 1 (+1)
Seat calculation is SNP 55 (+7), Con 3 (-3), Lab 1 (nc), Lib 0 (-4) according to the Electoral Calculus.
No independence question in the crosstabs.
As should be said about every VI poll at the moment, not worth drawing anything too much into them due to the situation.
The 5% other figure for the list vote appears to be largely from SNP constituency voters, which would probably imply 2-3% SSP - in line with YouGov's normal figure for the party.
Around 13% for each question are undecided, largely No voters - so expect the SNP figure to drop as the undecided figure falls.
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Post by afleitch on May 2, 2020 14:50:53 GMT
SNP with stonking leads across every age group but the over 65's is expected, but the over 65's also give the strongest support to thr Scottish Governments handling of the crisis.
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