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Post by afleitch on May 7, 2020 8:31:17 GMT
Scottish voting intentions for Westminster (Panelbase, 1st-5th May 2020):
SNP 50% (+2) Conservatives 26% (-1) Labour 17% (+1) Liberal Democrats 5% (n/c) Greens 2% (-1)
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 53% (+2) Conservatives 23% (-3) Labour 15% (+1) Liberal Democrats 5% (-1) Greens 3% (n/c)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 48% (n/c) Conservatives 22% (-4) Labour 15% (+2) Liberal Democrats 7% (+1) Greens 5% (-1)
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 6, 2020 10:40:24 GMT
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Jun 7, 2020 19:48:33 GMT
Panelbase/ScotGoesPop Holyrood SNP 53%/48% (nc/nc on May) Con 21%/19% (-2/-3) Lab 16%/16% (+1/+1) Lib 6%/8% (+1/+1) Grn 3%/7% (nc/+2)
Seat estimates: SNP 73 (+10), Con 24 (-7), Lab 19 (-5), Lib 8 (+3), Grn 5 (-1)
Westminster SNP 51% (+1 on May) Con 21% (-5) Lab 19% (+2) Lib 6% (+1) Grn 2% (nc)
Seat estimates: SNP 58 (+10), Lab 1 (nc), Con 0 (-6), Lib 0 (-4)
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 7,950
Member is Online
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Post by cogload on Jun 10, 2020 7:12:51 GMT
Good case study in how to conflate a party with a country. Looking at it objectively the SNP is failing on a huge number of metrics but the operation is slick and deflection.
The next case study will be "it's Westminster's fault" for not extending the use of the credit card therefore meaning we have to impose austerity.
The groundwork for this particular piece of blame is already being laid.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,303
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 10, 2020 10:15:57 GMT
It shows how just *appearing* to be competent, whatever the reality beneath the surface, can get rewards.
Especially when the contrast there with the Tory government in Westminster is so obvious.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Jun 21, 2020 8:00:33 GMT
Panelbase/Business for Scotland Independence Yes 50% (+2 on previous poll) No 43% (-2) DK 7% (-1)
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 21, 2020 8:15:22 GMT
Panelbase/Business for ScotlandIndependenceYes 50% (+2 on previous poll) No 43% (-2) DK 7% (-1) There's no real indication of significant moves either way. The DKS tend to drift to the status quo and it still appears to be quite an even split. That benefits the SNP in elections while the issue remains pivotal, but there doesn't appear to me any indication that either side is going to gain a solid advantage. Quite how there can ever be a resolve of the situation I don't know.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jun 21, 2020 9:17:30 GMT
Panelbase/Business for ScotlandIndependenceYes 50% (+2 on previous poll) No 43% (-2) DK 7% (-1) There's no real indication of significant moves either way. The DKS tend to drift to the status quo and it still appears to be quite an even split. That benefits the SNP in elections while the issue remains pivotal, but there doesn't appear to me any indication that either side is going to gain a solid advantage. Quite how there can ever be a resolve of the situation I don't know. Depends on what mood the DKs are in. If they are cautious and have cold feet, they go for the status quo (a la 2014). If they are feeling pissed off with things then they'll go for the 'fun' option (a la 2016).
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Post by afleitch on Jun 21, 2020 9:18:35 GMT
Panelbase/Business for ScotlandIndependenceYes 50% (+2 on previous poll) No 43% (-2) DK 7% (-1) There's no real indication of significant moves either way. The DKS tend to drift to the status quo and it still appears to be quite an even split. That benefits the SNP in elections while the issue remains pivotal, but there doesn't appear to me any indication that either side is going to gain a solid advantage. Quite how there can ever be a resolve of the situation I don't know. What 2014 did was create a resilient 45% block which has tended to expand more than contract. New young voters are also trending Yes, which is counter to to demographic trends in other autonomous movements.
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 21, 2020 9:31:54 GMT
There's no real indication of significant moves either way. The DKS tend to drift to the status quo and it still appears to be quite an even split. That benefits the SNP in elections while the issue remains pivotal, but there doesn't appear to me any indication that either side is going to gain a solid advantage. Quite how there can ever be a resolve of the situation I don't know. What 2014 did was create a resilient 45% block which has tended to expand more than contract. New young voters are also trending Yes, which is counter to to demographic trends in other autonomous movements. How long would it take to get to say a 60-40 split?
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,557
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Post by cibwr on Jun 21, 2020 17:31:13 GMT
At which point, and with a majority SNP government on 50%+ of the vote and 50% of the vote for Westminster, surely the UK government can't continue to block a new referendum? Or will they move the goal posts for a third time?
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Post by MacShimidh on Jun 21, 2020 18:27:26 GMT
At which point, and with a majority SNP government on 50%+ of the vote and 50% of the vote for Westminster, surely the UK government can't continue to block a new referendum? Or will they move the goal posts for a third time? A pedantic note - the SNP didn't win 50% of the vote at Westminster last year and they are very unlikely to do so next year IMO. A majority SNP government could be a game changer, but there's no obligation for the UK government to call a referendum based on just that.Cameron accepted the demand for a referendum in part because he thought a huge No victory (which at that point seemed inevitable) would kill off the SNP and secure the Union. Johnson probably won't do this, in part because Cameron's rationale is now obviously bunk, and also because the stakes are way higher than they were six years ago.
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 21, 2020 20:56:47 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 21, 2020 21:00:52 GMT
At which point, and with a majority SNP government on 50%+ of the vote and 50% of the vote for Westminster, surely the UK government can't continue to block a new referendum? Or will they move the goal posts for a third time? A pedantic note - the SNP didn't win 50% of the vote at Westminster last year and they are very unlikely to do so next year IMO. A majority SNP government could be a game changer, but there's no obligation for the UK government to call a referendum based on just that. Cameron accepted the demand for a referendum in part because he thought a huge No victory (which at that point seemed inevitable) would kill off the SNP and secure the Union. Johnson probably won't do this, in part because Cameron's rationale is now obviously bunk, and also because the stakes are way higher than they were six years ago. This Cameron fella wasnt half good at deciding to allow referendums to bolster his own /own parties' position without ever considering the consequences should anything go wrong*
* Of course he would be totally isolated personally from any of those consequences like the rest of the elite who rule us. Just us poor plebs left to suffer. Absolute twat of the highest order.
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Post by yellowfox on Jun 22, 2020 21:57:23 GMT
I would say that there had been a trend so far this year towards Yes in opinion polls beyond what was seen after the EU referendum as it has now been sustained beyond Brexit day itself. This is significant because it is the first time (I can recall) independence leading the polling averages outside of a major event. Whether this lasts until another indyref is another matter entirely though.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Jun 25, 2020 22:20:26 GMT
I would say that there had been a trend so far this year towards Yes in opinion polls beyond what was seen after the EU referendum as it has now been sustained beyond Brexit day itself. This is significant because it is the first time (I can recall) independence leading the polling averages outside of a major event. Whether this lasts until another indyref is another matter entirely though. I think part of that is down to the coronavirus situation and the difference in public attitude to the response of the Scottish Government compared to the UK Government. One other factor that will affect the headline numbers is turnout at the previous general election. I know turnout among 2015 SNP voters in 2017 was significantly lower than turnout among other parties' voters, perhaps the higher turnout in last year's general election was partly those voters returning - increasing the amount of previous SNP voters in the sample and, in turn, increasing independence support in polls.
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Post by jimboo2017 on Jun 25, 2020 22:39:31 GMT
Libertion movements rely on low interest rates and mortgages.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,557
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Post by cibwr on Jun 27, 2020 8:25:20 GMT
At which point, and with a majority SNP government on 50%+ of the vote and 50% of the vote for Westminster, surely the UK government can't continue to block a new referendum? Or will they move the goal posts for a third time? A pedantic note - the SNP didn't win 50% of the vote at Westminster last year and they are very unlikely to do so next year IMO. A majority SNP government could be a game changer, but there's no obligation for the UK government to call a referendum based on just that.Cameron accepted the demand for a referendum in part because he thought a huge No victory (which at that point seemed inevitable) would kill off the SNP and secure the Union. Johnson probably won't do this, in part because Cameron's rationale is now obviously bunk, and also because the stakes are way higher than they were six years ago. I wasn't suggesting they had 50% of the vote this time round, but given the way the goal posts have been move, ie 50% of MPs would be enough for independence, a majority of MSPs would be enough for a referendum, would it be too much for them to move to 50% of the vote being in support of the SNP for a referendum to 50% of the registered electorate to vote for the SNP to be the threshold for a mandate etc.... the goal posts are continually moved. There is a pro referendum majority in the Parliament, that should be sufficient for a referendum. After all that is sufficient to form a government in the Westminster parliament....
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Post by northbriton on Jun 30, 2020 15:55:02 GMT
Let's be clear, there will be no IndyRef before 2024. Whatever happens next year in the SP elections, Boris will rule it out, and Sir Keir won't dissent in any meaningful way. Ian Murray, the Labour Shadow Scottish Secretary, is pretty outspoken on the subject. There are numerous reasons why Boris won't agree, chief among them is that it could finish off his premiership. Better to hand the hot potato over to his successor.
I think, FWIW, that although Scottish Labour will struggle to make much headway in May next year, partly due to having such a poor leader as Richard Leonard, they could actually do pretty well in 2024 and set the SNP back, as happened in 2017. I do not think there is any inevitable about IndyRef2 never mind actual independence.
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 30, 2020 16:01:32 GMT
Let's be clear, there will be no IndyRef before 2024. Whatever happens next year in the SP elections, Boris will rule it out, and Sir Keir won't dissent in any meaningful way. Ian Murray, the Labour Shadow Scottish Secretary, is pretty outspoken on the subject. There are numerous reasons why Boris won't agree, chief among them is that it could finish off his premiership. Better to hand the hot potato over to his successor. I think, FWIW, that although Scottish Labour will struggle to make much headway in May next year, partly due to having such a poor leader as Richard Leonard, they could actually do pretty well in 2024 and set the SNP back, as happened in 2017. I do not think there is any inevitable about IndyRef2 never mind actual independence. I think the SNP vote will stay solid until this issue can be revisited. But even then are the calls for Independence just going to go away? I don't think so.
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