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Post by lancastrian on Dec 8, 2019 22:41:41 GMT
Panelbase have had Labour's best scores in Scotland throughout the campaign. Whether they're right we'll soon see. In 2017 they were the closest pollster on the SNP-Tory margin, but furthest out on the Labour score.
Are any more Scottish polls expected before Thursday?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2019 22:44:05 GMT
It does sound like we may hang on to Coatbridge and Kirkcaldy as well as Edinburgh South
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2019 9:07:08 GMT
This represents a swing of 0.7% from Con to SNP since the last election. I'll take that. Presumably we would only lose Stirling on that swing.
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pl
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Post by pl on Dec 9, 2019 9:08:54 GMT
This represents a swing of 0.7% from Con to SNP since the last election. I'll take that. Presumably we would only lose Stirling on that swing. Add in first term incumbency bonus and it could even be saved!
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 9, 2019 11:06:22 GMT
A possible scenario is the SNP do very well in Glasgow, Paisley, Edinburgh, Dundee, Falkirk with an increase in their share of the vote, but at the same time lose support in most of the rural areas.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Dec 9, 2019 13:31:55 GMT
A possible scenario is the SNP do very well in Glasgow, Paisley, Edinburgh, Dundee, Falkirk with an increase in their share of the vote, but at the same time lose support in most of the rural areas. and Aberdeen?
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 9, 2019 13:48:23 GMT
A possible scenario is the SNP do very well in Glasgow, Paisley, Edinburgh, Dundee, Falkirk with an increase in their share of the vote, but at the same time lose support in most of the rural areas. and Aberdeen? Maybe not so much there because of the north-east effect.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2019 13:51:01 GMT
A possible scenario is the SNP do very well in Glasgow, Paisley, Edinburgh, Dundee, Falkirk with an increase in their share of the vote, but at the same time lose support in most of the rural areas. and Aberdeen? I think the Conservatives will hold Aberdeen South quite easily.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 9, 2019 14:34:22 GMT
A genuine question for our cousins North of Longtown. Has the Centralbeltification of the SNP dampened their appeal elsewhere?
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Eastwood
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Post by Eastwood on Dec 9, 2019 23:46:36 GMT
A genuine question for our cousins North of Longtown. Has the Centralbeltification of the SNP dampened their appeal elsewhere? Yes and No. For the rural independence true believer like fourringcircus absolutely not. However there were a group of independence agnostic / tactical Con minded / anti Lib Dem voters who did lend votes to the rural sympathetic SNP who have subsequently switched to the Tories. These were largely gone in 2017 though so there aren’t many low hanging fruit to gain. I suspect there’s maybe a group of middle class “Alliance” voters (in a NI context), professional, public sector employed, new Labour, Cleggmania, independence agnostic voters who want a quiet life without radical change (not keen on independence or Brexit). I further suggest these folks voted No in 2014, SNP in 2015 and Remain in 2016. In 2017 some of these folks may have stayed with SNP as independence was not a huge part of that election. Now while these voters aren’t keen on Brexit they may come to see it as a Fait Accompli as poll numbers in England harden. So Independence may seem to be a bigger issue for them and they may be no longer willing to vote SNP. But will they switch to Conservative in numbers? Not sure yet.
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Post by robbienicoll on Dec 12, 2019 0:50:48 GMT
Paging Tom for his reaction . Weighted subsample of 910 apparently.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 12, 2019 0:54:43 GMT
Those figures... What to make of those? Difficult given the last set was April.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Dec 12, 2019 0:57:19 GMT
I'm much more sceptical of this "SNP on the run" narrative, but I think that 46% is too high in all honesty. Reality probably about 40%.
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Post by robbienicoll on Dec 12, 2019 1:03:43 GMT
I think what will be the case is very little change, maybe five or six seats changing in total. Far too high an SNP figure though.
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Tom
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Post by Tom on Dec 12, 2019 1:14:32 GMT
That's not the Survation Scottish poll but a tiny subsample from the GB one. Whatever number they put out will be bullshit though.
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Post by robbienicoll on Dec 12, 2019 10:40:37 GMT
Correct figures here.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Dec 12, 2019 12:17:10 GMT
That's more like it. Looks pretty decent for us, lets hope its accurate.
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Eastwood
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Post by Eastwood on Dec 13, 2019 11:54:56 GMT
Will probs end up with egg on my face but that poll is bollocks. Another bullshit poll. The SNP aren't getting 44%. Someone really needs to get a grip on Scottish polls, they're always wrong. The Scottish Polls appear to have generally underestimated SNP and overestimated Conservative / Labour. Ipsos Mori I reckon got closest with everyone within 2% of their percentages.
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Post by robbienicoll on Dec 13, 2019 12:30:02 GMT
Will probs end up with egg on my face but that poll is bollocks. Another bullshit poll. The SNP aren't getting 44%. Someone really needs to get a grip on Scottish polls, they're always wrong. The Scottish Polls appear to have generally underestimated SNP and overestimated Conservative / Labour. Ipsos Mori I reckon got closest with everyone within 2% of their percentages. The clue was in the crosstabs as to whether voters would consider voting for another party. Over a third of Labour support said they could envisage going SNP and that's what happened. Difficult to pick up that kind of churn if you're not in one of those parties which presumably explains Conservative hubris beforehand.
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Tom
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Post by Tom on Dec 13, 2019 12:42:41 GMT
The Tories were generally right that their vote was holding up ok, guess they just didn't pick up the Labour-SNP swing as well as the rise in turnout.
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