J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,672
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Post by J.G.Harston on Aug 31, 2019 21:50:17 GMT
Just what I was think as I was reading it. (Sat here in Victoria Square opposite Whitby Railway Station with a draft Focus on my desk.)
Yes, Whitby is very split. In general, whoever has the effort and resources to put the effort in gets in. The town used to return Liberals, then replaced by Labour, then became a sea of blue, then one LibDem towering over the other five Conservatives, then Independents who went Conservative while Labour got in and then supplanted them. The bluest seat in Whitby was Lab+Con for the last eight years, as was the reddest seat in town. The middle seat (where I am) was Con+Con until this year when it's gone Con+Lab. The six town seats are now 3Lab+3Con.
Knowing the background of town councillors, I know the town council is effectively 1/4+1/4+1/4+1/4 Lab,Con,LibDem,Oth but the council is non-political and most members tend to see it as rather coarse to use the town council as a Party Political soapbox. (One particular member keeps trying to push motions on national issues that seem to be cut'n'pasted from Momentum conference speeches.) Yeah, I'm vaguely familiar with the area, if only because it's the southernmost extent of the main bus ticket in the North East, so I've ended up there a lot. It definitely feels like a split town, despite being very different from Northampton or other places which come to mind as your stereotypical marginal. From what I've noticed, it seems rather unpredictable at a local level, other than the bizarrely named Streonshalh ward which is more consistently opposed to the Conservatives. I suppose because I've only visited and struggle to imagine people living there, I find the idea of its politics bizzare, like central London or Cambridge. If I had to guess, I'd say even between the parties and very Brexity, but the idea of votes there just feels weird or something. When campaigning for the Borough a few months ago I had Brexity people saying they'd vote for me - though usually after I'd explained that I had voted Leave.
The last 25 years has seen Whitby return (3-member wards, then 2-member wards): Ind Ind Con Con Con Lab Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Lab Lab Con Con Con Con Con Lab Lab Ind Ind Con Con Lab Lab Lab Ind Ind Con Con Lab Ind Con LDm Ind Con Lab Lab
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YouGov
Aug 31, 2019 22:06:15 GMT
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 31, 2019 22:06:15 GMT
Yeah, I'm vaguely familiar with the area, if only because it's the southernmost extent of the main bus ticket in the North East, so I've ended up there a lot. It definitely feels like a split town, despite being very different from Northampton or other places which come to mind as your stereotypical marginal. From what I've noticed, it seems rather unpredictable at a local level, other than the bizarrely named Streonshalh ward which is more consistently opposed to the Conservatives. I suppose because I've only visited and struggle to imagine people living there, I find the idea of its politics bizzare, like central London or Cambridge. If I had to guess, I'd say even between the parties and very Brexity, but the idea of votes there just feels weird or something. When campaigning for the Borough a few months ago I had Brexity people saying they'd vote for me - though usually after I'd explained that I had voted Leave.
The last 25 years has seen Whitby return (3-member wards, then 2-member wards): Ind Ind Con Con Con Lab Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Lab Lab Con Con Con Con Con Lab Lab Ind Ind Con Con Lab Lab Lab Ind Ind Con Con Lab Ind Con LDm Ind Con Lab Lab
Amen to that - I genuinely think if we hadn't doubled down on Brexit, and had became the party of "work for a reasonable deal, but otherwise focus on reasonable policies which will help our country", we might not be doing as well in the national polls, but places like Whitby (and the South West of course) would be more inclined to vote for us. I actually went from being pro-Leave to voting Labour in 2017 because their campaign talked about things other than Brexit - most people want to focus on their daily lives and not the EU. Things like our drug policy should be focused on, at least in my view.
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YouGov
Aug 31, 2019 23:28:41 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 31, 2019 23:28:41 GMT
Yeah, I'm vaguely familiar with the area, if only because it's the southernmost extent of the main bus ticket in the North East, so I've ended up there a lot. It definitely feels like a split town, despite being very different from Northampton or other places which come to mind as your stereotypical marginal. From what I've noticed, it seems rather unpredictable at a local level, other than the bizarrely named Streonshalh ward which is more consistently opposed to the Conservatives. I suppose because I've only visited and struggle to imagine people living there, I find the idea of its politics bizzare, like central London or Cambridge. If I had to guess, I'd say even between the parties and very Brexity, but the idea of votes there just feels weird or something. When campaigning for the Borough a few months ago I had Brexity people saying they'd vote for me - though usually after I'd explained that I had voted Leave.
The last 25 years has seen Whitby return (3-member wards, then 2-member wards): Ind Ind Con Con Con Lab Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Lab Lab Con Con Con Con Con Lab Lab Ind Ind Con Con Lab Lab Lab Ind Ind Con Con Lab Ind Con LDm Ind Con Lab Lab
Anywhere we win a local election ward in West Yorkshire a whole load of Leave voters support us.
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 31, 2019 23:57:21 GMT
Labour could win a couple of Cornwall seats and the other Plymouth seat but they aren't likely to win any others, and never were. The issue is, demographically at least, somewhere like Torbay should be winnable for Labour. 55% working class, and hardly part of the elite. Similar factors would apply to Yeovil, North Devon, and even maybe South Dorset (Weymouth should be a Labour town). I suppose there's a cultural factor, like how suburban northern seats go Labour (Blaydon, Sefton Central et al), but a Labour party who are more culturally populist could easily win the votes of people in those seats (and perhaps could even win me). But then they would lose my vote. I don't want my party to go anywhere near "cultural populism"
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Sept 1, 2019 1:30:10 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 1, 2019 1:30:10 GMT
The issue is, demographically at least, somewhere like Torbay should be winnable for Labour. 55% working class, and hardly part of the elite. Similar factors would apply to Yeovil, North Devon, and even maybe South Dorset (Weymouth should be a Labour town). I suppose there's a cultural factor, like how suburban northern seats go Labour (Blaydon, Sefton Central et al), but a Labour party who are more culturally populist could easily win the votes of people in those seats (and perhaps could even win me). But then they would lose my vote. I don't want my party to go anywhere near "cultural populism" God, remember when the Graun tried to tout "Labour populism"? You could tell they gave up when they launched that "populism is bad" series.
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Sept 1, 2019 8:46:18 GMT
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Post by gasman2019 on Sept 1, 2019 8:46:18 GMT
But then they would lose my vote. I don't want my party to go anywhere near "cultural populism" God, remember when the Graun tried to tout "Labour populism"? You could tell they gave up when they launched that "populism is bad" series. Was it the Blue Labour piece when Ed was leader? Would be an interesting avenue for Labour to go down, tough on immigration, crime and socially conservative with left wing economic politics, such as redistribution of wealth and public ownership of heavy industry and railroads etc. Do they have many MPs who are this way inclined. 5 or 6 maximum?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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YouGov
Sept 1, 2019 9:15:24 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2019 9:15:24 GMT
The Danish Social Democrats have tried this. They won the election but more thanks to left bloc than their own vote
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 1, 2019 10:20:25 GMT
The Danish Social Democrats have tried this. They won the election but more thanks to left bloc than their own vote And to an extent they could get away with it as left wing voters could opt for another party within the left bloc who would make sure those policies were tempered in government.
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YouGov
Sept 1, 2019 10:21:31 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 1, 2019 10:21:31 GMT
God, remember when the Graun tried to tout "Labour populism"? You could tell they gave up when they launched that "populism is bad" series. Was it the Blue Labour piece when Ed was leader? Would be an interesting avenue for Labour to go down, tough on immigration, crime and socially conservative with left wing economic politics, such as redistribution of wealth and public ownership of heavy industry and railroads etc. Do they have many MPs who are this way inclined. 5 or 6 maximum? I was thinking more of their idea that Corbyn was in the Warren mould (for all her faults, I can understand her programme, and it isn't like Corbo). But I had forgotten Blue Labour!
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,657
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 1, 2019 10:25:40 GMT
The issue is, demographically at least, somewhere like Torbay should be winnable for Labour. 55% working class, and hardly part of the elite. Similar factors would apply to Yeovil, North Devon, and even maybe South Dorset (Weymouth should be a Labour town). I suppose there's a cultural factor, like how suburban northern seats go Labour (Blaydon, Sefton Central et al), but a Labour party who are more culturally populist could easily win the votes of people in those seats (and perhaps could even win me). But then they would lose my vote. I don't want my party to go anywhere near "cultural populism"And what does such a nebulous term actually *mean*? Unfortunately, for some proponents it doesn't seem to amount to much beyond being nasty to brown people and other minorities.
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 1, 2019 10:32:59 GMT
Was it the Blue Labour piece when Ed was leader? Would be an interesting avenue for Labour to go down, tough on immigration, crime and socially conservative with left wing economic politics, such as redistribution of wealth and public ownership of heavy industry and railroads etc. Do they have many MPs who are this way inclined. 5 or 6 maximum? I was thinking more of their idea that Corbyn was in the Warren mould (for all her faults, I can understand her programme, and it isn't like Corbo). But I had forgotten Blue Labour! Warren recognises that we - the left - cannot ignore or forget those in the post industrial areas and just expecting them to move is no answer. Clinton tried to pretend they didn't exist.
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 1, 2019 10:41:20 GMT
And the Liberals did well in Scarborough (& Whitby) for a while via Michael Pitts. However there the Liberal potential was never consolidated, unlike in Torbay and Southport. I don't think I'm revealing anything when saying the powerhouse of S&W LibDems was Margaret Pitts, and since she died 10ish years ago the local party has stagnated. On the subject of individuals from Whitby. I lived in Huddesrsfield at the 1992 election. At the time I was very involved in gay rights issues and I went to a hustings meeting organised by the voluntary sector. The Conservative candidate was Jane Kenyon, a councillor from Whitby, who gave the best answer of all the candidates. I remember well her saying. Well...I don't support positive discrimination but neither do I support discrimination. I used to live in San Francisco and the prejudice shown to the gay community is unacceptable. I then asked her if she would have voted against Section 28 and she replied Yes, without any ifs or buts. I went to have a chat to her afterwards and she said that she knew her position wouldn't go down well with her party at the time but she did not agree with the Tory position at the time
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,672
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YouGov
Sept 1, 2019 10:59:18 GMT
Post by J.G.Harston on Sept 1, 2019 10:59:18 GMT
I don't think I'm revealing anything when saying the powerhouse of S&W LibDems was Margaret Pitts, and since she died 10ish years ago the local party has stagnated. On the subject of individuals from Whitby. I lived in Huddesrsfield at the 1992 election. At the time I was very involved in gay rights issues and I went to a hustings meeting organised by the voluntary sector. The Conservative candidate was Jane Kenyon, a councillor from Whitby, who gave the best answer of all the candidates. I remember well her saying. Well...I don't support positive discrimination but neither do I support discrimination. I used to live in San Francisco and the prejudice shown to the gay community is unacceptable. I then asked her if she would have voted against Section 28 and she replied Yes, without any ifs or buts. I went to have a chat to her afterwards and she said that she knew her position wouldn't go down well with her party at the time but she did not agree with the Tory position at the time While Jane Kenyon was a councillor for Whitby, she wasn't "from" Whitby, which was used in some quarters as a source of irritation locally with her being seen as parachuted in from Scarborough.
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YouGov
Sept 1, 2019 15:36:14 GMT
Post by tonygreaves on Sept 1, 2019 15:36:14 GMT
Given recent YouGov polls the 17% looks like an outlier. But are YouGov doing polls every other day now? Seems like they are making a bid to take over the whole kerboosh. The big questions for them all are: (1) will we leave (crash out) on 31st October; and (2) if we do or don't, what will the polls look like a week later? The truth at the moment is simply that we do not know the answer to either question. Meanwhile I have been requested to make contingency plans to sit next weekend and to bring a sleeping bag. I am sure the Tory filibuster will ensure a good night's sleep I am more likely to sit in the Chamber and harass them if it comes to that kind of nonsense.
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YouGov
Sept 1, 2019 15:39:05 GMT
Post by tonygreaves on Sept 1, 2019 15:39:05 GMT
We do seem to be in the midst of a realignment though. The Lib Dems are rapidly becoming the party of the internationalist, vaguely centrist middle class (i.e. the party of Richmond, Hampstead and Chelsea) the time when places like Torbay were Lib Dem seats will likely become a distant memory. The question will be where do voters like me go? Not really right wing enough for the Tories, not left wing or metropolitan enough for Labour, and not pro-EU enough for the Lib Dems. I'd say the Brexit Party but I suspect they'll be a flash in the pan - but there are plenty of seats where a plurality of people are like me (Torbay is a great example but there's probably a dozen others in the South West and many outside). You are welcome to go and join a gang of proto-fascists if that is what you want. But your assessment of "where LD voters will go" is cloud cuckoo land in my view. so good luck to you.
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YouGov
Sept 1, 2019 15:43:46 GMT
Post by tonygreaves on Sept 1, 2019 15:43:46 GMT
The issue is, demographically at least, somewhere like Torbay should be winnable for Labour. 55% working class, and hardly part of the elite. Similar factors would apply to Yeovil, North Devon, and even maybe South Dorset (Weymouth should be a Labour town). I suppose there's a cultural factor, like how suburban northern seats go Labour (Blaydon, Sefton Central et al), but a Labour party who are more culturally populist could easily win the votes of people in those seats (and perhaps could even win me). South Dorset did elect a Labour MP, Jim Knight, in 2001 and 2005, and Guy Barnett in a 1962 by-election (albeit due to a split in the Conservative vote by Sir Piers Debenham).
Yeovil missed out on electing a Labour MP in 1945 by 174 votes; the same year Taunton (a Lib Dem seat from 1997 to 2001 and again from 2005 to 2015) did elect a Labour MP (Victor Collins). A cultural factor definitely exists but it is not overriding.
Jim Knight is now a Labour peer and a good man. Guy Barnett was a teacher at the secondary school I went to and I knew him fairly well through the school scouts. His death caused the by-election which was won by the SDP candidate Rosie Barnes at the Greenwich by-election in 1987 (not my favourite Alliance MP).
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YouGov
Sept 1, 2019 15:47:49 GMT
Post by tonygreaves on Sept 1, 2019 15:47:49 GMT
The issue is, demographically at least, somewhere like Torbay should be winnable for Labour. 55% working class, and hardly part of the elite. Similar factors would apply to Yeovil, North Devon, and even maybe South Dorset (Weymouth should be a Labour town). I suppose there's a cultural factor, like how suburban northern seats go Labour (Blaydon, Sefton Central et al), but a Labour party who are more culturally populist could easily win the votes of people in those seats (and perhaps could even win me). But then they would lose my vote. I don't want my party to go anywhere near "cultural populism" What is "cultural populism"?
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YouGov
Sept 1, 2019 15:55:36 GMT
Post by tonygreaves on Sept 1, 2019 15:55:36 GMT
When campaigning for the Borough a few months ago I had Brexity people saying they'd vote for me - though usually after I'd explained that I had voted Leave. The last 25 years has seen Whitby return (3-member wards, then 2-member wards): Ind Ind Con Con Con Lab Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Lab Lab Con Con Con Con Con Lab Lab Ind Ind Con Con Lab Lab Lab Ind Ind Con Con Lab Ind Con LDm Ind Con Lab Lab
Anywhere we win a local election ward in West Yorkshire a whole load of Leave voters support us. My then ward (now part of my present ward) was one of only two polling districts in Pendle that voted against staying in the European Community in 1975.
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YouGov
Sept 1, 2019 16:05:41 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 1, 2019 16:05:41 GMT
But then they would lose my vote. I don't want my party to go anywhere near "cultural populism" What is "cultural populism"? I'm assuming it's what The Bishop described earlier. Think Phil Woolas.
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YouGov
Sept 1, 2019 21:21:54 GMT
Post by carlton43 on Sept 1, 2019 21:21:54 GMT
The question will be where do voters like me go? Not really right wing enough for the Tories, not left wing or metropolitan enough for Labour, and not pro-EU enough for the Lib Dems. I'd say the Brexit Party but I suspect they'll be a flash in the pan - but there are plenty of seats where a plurality of people are like me (Torbay is a great example but there's probably a dozen others in the South West and many outside). You are welcome to go and join a gang of proto-fascists if that is what you want. But your assessment of "where LD voters will go" is cloud cuckoo land in my view. so good luck to you. Describing the average BP voter as a proto-fascist is not only absurd but deeply offensive but I regret very you and very much what we have come to expect from a certain sort of gormless thick LD.
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