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YouGov
Apr 12, 2024 19:35:03 GMT
Post by manchesterman on Apr 12, 2024 19:35:03 GMT
I think it might be 18% not long before Johnson took over, IIRC they were tied with Labour - both were behind the LibDems and Brexit Party Crazy times indeed. I did some extrapolations back around that time based on a theoretically plausible (at the time) result of 22% for Con, Lab, LD and BXP to see how that would play out... will see if I still have it! freeimage.host/i/election-22-percent-tie.JvcIg7sThe seats breakdown (GB) was: Lab 207 BXP 184 Con 111 LD 84 SNP 45 PC 2 Green 1
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Post by London Lad on Apr 14, 2024 15:10:18 GMT
If you put YouGovs latest figures through the Electoral Calculus predictor it looks like Ed Davey is going to be Leader of the Opposition..and the Tories will be slugging it out with the SNP to be relevant..
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 18, 2024 10:28:47 GMT
Today's YouGov:-
Lab 44 Con 21 Reform 14 LD 8 Green 8 SNP 3 Oth 2 PC 1
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 25, 2024 10:09:57 GMT
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Post by woollyliberal on May 2, 2024 6:40:54 GMT
Lowest Tory YouGov Score?
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Post by bigfatron on May 2, 2024 6:56:07 GMT
Lowest Tory YouGov Score? Crossover in sight…?!
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Post by woollyliberal on May 2, 2024 7:28:09 GMT
Sam Freedman tweets that YouGov had the Tories on 17% just after Theresa May resigned, which was their lowest point.
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msc
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Post by msc on May 2, 2024 8:36:02 GMT
Sam Freedman tweets that YouGov had the Tories on 17% just after Theresa May resigned, which was their lowest point. Opinium, 28-30th May 2019 Brexit Party 26% Labour 22% Tories 17% Lib Dems 16% Insane days. Luckily for the Tories, a new Westminster leader was elected soon after who immediately restored their polling: Jo Swinson.
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carlton43
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YouGov
May 2, 2024 11:11:12 GMT
Post by carlton43 on May 2, 2024 11:11:12 GMT
Lowest Tory YouGov Score? Does anyone here believe this? A few points only between Reform and Conservative. Really. There is no evidence at all that this is other than Grade A total bollocks. Why does anyone look at this quackery. I prefer honest divination from birds entrails. Makes more sense. These people would in earlier times have sold snake oil. They have the gall to term it scientific.
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Post by Kristofer Keane on May 2, 2024 11:17:52 GMT
I can believe it's what people are reporting to YouGov - a lot of 2019 Tory voters will feel like they don't relate to the Conservatives now and are looking around for an alternative. When it comes to actual General Election day though, I expect most of those reporting a Reform preference now will either not vote or go back to the Conservatives.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 2, 2024 11:39:11 GMT
If today is bad for the Conservatives and something positive happens for Reform (2nd in Blackpool or a London AM etc) I could easily see a brief cross over in the next week before Reform’s share subsides.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 2, 2024 11:55:46 GMT
I can believe it's what people are reporting to YouGov - a lot of 2019 Tory voters will feel like they don't relate to the Conservatives now and are looking around for an alternative. When it comes to actual General Election day though, I expect most of those reporting a Reform preference now will either not vote or go back to the Conservatives. That was my default presumption, but I'm beginning to wonder. The sense of inevitability about a Labour government, plus discontent with the current Tories among people on the broad right, is such that I'm beginning to think a lot of people now saying Reform will either not vote or vote Reform, if there is a candidate. To say that we are on course for a 1997 result is no longer wild, it is what the polls have been saying very consistently for a long time now, and we are less than seven months (maximum) from a GE campaign. But in 1997 there was no Reform, UKIP was in its Alan Sked incarnation with less than 200 candidates. How many Tories then would have voted for a right-wing alternative if there had been one? Plenty, I think. Voting Conservative after all is not going to save the Party or keep Labour out, or even do much to hold Labour to account from opposition - for the sort of people already saying "Reform", sending a message to the Conservatives that they need your vote may be a better offer than casting a vote in a losing cause.
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Post by michaelarden on May 2, 2024 12:19:45 GMT
I can believe it's what people are reporting to YouGov - a lot of 2019 Tory voters will feel like they don't relate to the Conservatives now and are looking around for an alternative. When it comes to actual General Election day though, I expect most of those reporting a Reform preference now will either not vote or go back to the Conservatives. That was my default presumption, but I'm beginning to wonder. The sense of inevitability about a Labour government, plus discontent with the current Tories among people on the broad right, is such that I'm beginning to think a lot of people now saying Reform will either not vote or vote Reform, if there is a candidate. To say that we are on course for a 1997 result is no longer wild, it is what the polls have been saying very consistently for a long time now, and we are less than seven months (maximum) from a GE campaign. But in 1997 there was no Reform, UKIP was in its Alan Sked incarnation with less than 200 candidates. How many Tories then would have voted for a right-wing alternative if there had been one? Plenty, I think. Voting Conservative after all is not going to save the Party or keep Labour out, or even do much to hold Labour to account from opposition - for the sort of people already saying "Reform", sending a message to the Conservatives that they need your vote may be a better offer than casting a vote in a losing cause. Yes but. There was also Jimmy Goldsmith's Referendum Party that stood pretty much everywhere, polled 800,000+ votes and around 3% UK wide. Think Eurosceptism is more mainstream than 27 years ago so 5-10% nationally may not be out of the question.
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willpower3
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YouGov
May 2, 2024 12:20:21 GMT
Post by willpower3 on May 2, 2024 12:20:21 GMT
I can believe it's what people are reporting to YouGov - a lot of 2019 Tory voters will feel like they don't relate to the Conservatives now and are looking around for an alternative. When it comes to actual General Election day though, I expect most of those reporting a Reform preference now will either not vote or go back to the Conservatives. That was my default presumption, but I'm beginning to wonder. The sense of inevitability about a Labour government, plus discontent with the current Tories among people on the broad right, is such that I'm beginning to think a lot of people now saying Reform will either not vote or vote Reform, if there is a candidate. To say that we are on course for a 1997 result is no longer wild, it is what the polls have been saying very consistently for a long time now, and we are less than seven months (maximum) from a GE campaign. But in 1997 there was no Reform, UKIP was in its Alan Sked incarnation with less than 200 candidates. How many Tories then would have voted for a right-wing alternative if there had been one? Plenty, I think. Voting Conservative after all is not going to save the Party or keep Labour out, or even do much to hold Labour to account from opposition - for the sort of people already saying "Reform", sending a message to the Conservatives that they need your vote may be a better offer than casting a vote in a losing cause. 1997 hasn't been a wild prospect since at least the Truss premiership. It's probably the most likely outcome, in fact. The wild (but still possible) outcome is Canada 1993.
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Roger Harmer
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Councillor for Acocks Green in Birmingham
Posts: 235
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YouGov
May 2, 2024 12:23:53 GMT
Post by Roger Harmer on May 2, 2024 12:23:53 GMT
That was my default presumption, but I'm beginning to wonder. The sense of inevitability about a Labour government, plus discontent with the current Tories among people on the broad right, is such that I'm beginning to think a lot of people now saying Reform will either not vote or vote Reform, if there is a candidate. To say that we are on course for a 1997 result is no longer wild, it is what the polls have been saying very consistently for a long time now, and we are less than seven months (maximum) from a GE campaign. But in 1997 there was no Reform, UKIP was in its Alan Sked incarnation with less than 200 candidates. How many Tories then would have voted for a right-wing alternative if there had been one? Plenty, I think. Voting Conservative after all is not going to save the Party or keep Labour out, or even do much to hold Labour to account from opposition - for the sort of people already saying "Reform", sending a message to the Conservatives that they need your vote may be a better offer than casting a vote in a losing cause. 1997 hasn't been a wild prospect since at least the Truss premiership. It's probably the most likely outcome, in fact. The wild (but still possible) outcome is Canada 1993. 1997 may be wildly optimistic for the Tories the way this is going.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 2, 2024 14:20:27 GMT
Sam Freedman tweets that YouGov had the Tories on 17% just after Theresa May resigned, which was their lowest point. Opinium, 28-30th May 2019 Brexit Party 26% Labour 22% Tories 17% Lib Dems 16% Insane days. Luckily for the Tories, a new Westminster leader was elected soon after who immediately restored their polling: Jo Swinson. Though the all time Tory "record" remains 14% with People Polling during the Truss nadir. Might just be worth bearing in mind if today's results are a true wipeout - though I will still believe that when I see it.
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