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Post by hullenedge on Apr 5, 2024 9:01:29 GMT
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YouGov
Apr 5, 2024 22:45:52 GMT
Post by Robert Waller on Apr 5, 2024 22:45:52 GMT
One technical question about this, if I may. I have downloaded the spreadsheet, but find it awkward in that the order if the seats seems to be by putative Reform share (which for various reasons I myself think is about the least helpful). Is there a way one can re-order it to say alphabetical order, or order by other parties (without being some kind of Excel wizard!), please ?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 5, 2024 22:57:28 GMT
One technical question about this, if I may. I have downloaded the spreadsheet, but find it awkward in that the order if the seats seems to be by putative Reform share (which for various reasons I myself think is about the least helpful). Is there a way one can re-order it to say alphabetical order, or order by other parties (without being some kind of Excel wizard!), please ? Click on the arrow in cell A1 and select Sort A-Z
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Post by Robert Waller on Apr 5, 2024 23:23:18 GMT
Thank you.
And by trial and error I have found that one can order by party through the drop down menu if one clicks on say LabShare.
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 12, 2024 8:19:10 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 12, 2024 8:24:09 GMT
Good that we've got the graph to remind ourselves about how poll findings bounce around.
But if this trend continues, there will come a day when a poll shows Reform UK either tied or ahead of the Conservatives, and that's going to lead certain people to forget their excreta.
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Post by Yaffles on Apr 12, 2024 9:22:51 GMT
Does anyone know what the record low for the Tories in a YouGov poll is - 19% must be close?
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YouGov
Apr 12, 2024 10:13:15 GMT
Post by johnloony on Apr 12, 2024 10:13:15 GMT
Good that we've got the graph to remind ourselves about how poll findings bounce around. But if this trend continues, there will come a day when a poll shows Reform UK either tied or ahead of the Conservatives, and that's going to lead certain people to forget their excreta. I reckon it might cross over in the summer (or in the silly season) and then - as the general election approaches - Reform will collapse down again as there is more scrutiny of their policies (and candidates), and then there will be a big drop in the number of actual candidates compared with prospective / hopeful candidates.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 12, 2024 10:14:51 GMT
I think it might be 18% not long before Johnson took over, IIRC they were tied with Labour - both were behind the LibDems and Brexit Party Crazy times indeed.
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Post by woollyliberal on Apr 12, 2024 10:43:55 GMT
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Post by nobodyimportant on Apr 12, 2024 10:46:11 GMT
Both from People Polling rather than YouGov though.
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Post by woollyliberal on Apr 12, 2024 10:56:06 GMT
Both from People Polling rather than YouGov though. Well yes, but as the YouGov graph was shown in the post, I thought that self evident.
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YouGov
Apr 12, 2024 11:26:17 GMT
via mobile
Post by swingometer on Apr 12, 2024 11:26:17 GMT
Good that we've got the graph to remind ourselves about how poll findings bounce around. But if this trend continues, there will come a day when a poll shows Reform UK either tied or ahead of the Conservatives, and that's going to lead certain people to forget their excreta. I reckon it might cross over in the summer (or in the silly season) and then - as the general election approaches - Reform will collapse down again as there is more scrutiny of their policies (and candidates), and then there will be a big drop in the number of actual candidates compared with prospective / hopeful candidates. If Reform sell out and don’t stand against the Tories as I believe you’re saying, there’ll be hell to pay regarding red wall voters trust in the electoral system altogether
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Post by johnloony on Apr 12, 2024 11:34:38 GMT
I reckon it might cross over in the summer (or in the silly season) and then - as the general election approaches - Reform will collapse down again as there is more scrutiny of their policies (and candidates), and then there will be a big drop in the number of actual candidates compared with prospective / hopeful candidates. If Reform sell out and don’t stand against the Tories as I believe you’re saying, there’ll be hell to pay regarding red wall voters trust in the electoral system altogether I think Reform wants, and will want, to have as many candidates as possible in all constituencies. If they have lots of candidates missing it will be because of disorganisation, inefficiency, lack of suitable candidates being found, and general chaos. - not from any deliberate decision not to stand.
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The Bishop
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YouGov
Apr 12, 2024 11:37:17 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Apr 12, 2024 11:37:17 GMT
I think their one central aim is to field candidates in most if not all constituencies at the next GE, so falling well short of that would be a major failure on their part.
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YouGov
Apr 12, 2024 11:48:58 GMT
Post by islington on Apr 12, 2024 11:48:58 GMT
I think their one central aim is to field candidates in most if not all constituencies at the next GE, so falling well short of that would be a major failure on their part. My guess is that (1) because of organizational weakness Reform will fall short, by a significant margin, of their declared aim of fighting every seat; and that (2) their desperation to find candidates will severely strain whatever vetting process they try to run, so that some of the candidates they do put forward will not stand up well to the exposure and scrutiny involved in fighting a GE.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 12, 2024 13:10:55 GMT
I think they would consider a similar level of coverage to UKIP in 2015 as satisfactory - and IMO are likely capable of achieving that. (don't forget that one thing they *do* have is money, and that helps in this regard) Whether any of those candidates then have to be ditched when they receive greater scrutiny is, perhaps, another matter
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Tony Otim
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YouGov
Apr 12, 2024 18:18:44 GMT
via mobile
Post by Tony Otim on Apr 12, 2024 18:18:44 GMT
I suspect they will struggle most in Scotland in terms of fielding candidates.
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jamie
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YouGov
Apr 12, 2024 18:30:44 GMT
Post by jamie on Apr 12, 2024 18:30:44 GMT
I suspect they will struggle most in Scotland in terms of fielding candidates. In theory their strong unionist platform should attract enough hardline unionists to stand. Of course, this assumes enough people even notice their policies in the first place…
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YouGov
Apr 12, 2024 19:20:27 GMT
Post by manchesterman on Apr 12, 2024 19:20:27 GMT
I think it might be 18% not long before Johnson took over, IIRC they were tied with Labour - both were behind the LibDems and Brexit Party Crazy times indeed. I did some extrapolations back around that time based on a theoretically plausible (at the time) result of 22% for Con, Lab, LD and BXP to see how that would play out... will see if I still have it! freeimage.host/i/election-22-percent-tie.JvcIg7s
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