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Post by batman on Mar 28, 2024 16:37:28 GMT
Getting excited from an anti-Labour perspective about a poll which has their vote barely half of Labour's would seem fairly odd, especially this close to a general election. The truth is that it's probably no more than a reversion to the mean after a poll which surely had the Tory share too low.
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YouGov
Mar 28, 2024 17:37:38 GMT
via mobile
Post by afleitch on Mar 28, 2024 17:37:38 GMT
I think that Labour's share being at a level not seen since the 'Trussgasm' is of some note, regardless of any other movement.
Though YouGov, even with stonking Labour leads, has tended to have less Tory to Labour switchers than other pollsters.
Lots of higher 'don't knows' around holiday periods too.
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YouGov
Mar 28, 2024 18:46:17 GMT
via mobile
Post by mattbewilson on Mar 28, 2024 18:46:17 GMT
I think that Labour's share being at a level not seen since the 'Trussgasm' is of some note, regardless of any other movement. Though YouGov, even with stonking Labour leads, has tended to have less Tory to Labour switchers than other pollsters. Lots of higher 'don't knows' around holiday periods too. yes 1/10 Labour 2019 are now don't know. 1/10 2019 Lib Dems are now Don't know. 1/5 2019 Tories are don't know.
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Post by mattbewilson on Mar 28, 2024 20:57:06 GMT
More interesting is the increasing Reform share. Still not convinced it's real but hard to ignore. Reform clearly third biggest party now in the polls.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,567
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YouGov
Mar 29, 2024 11:01:30 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Mar 29, 2024 11:01:30 GMT
I think that Labour's share being at a level not seen since the 'Trussgasm' is of some note, regardless of any other movement. Presumably you mean with YouGov rather than all pollsters (I thought they had had one Labour at 40% in the previous 18 months, but perhaps not - they have certainly had a few at 41%) There has been one survey with Labour at 39% (Opinium last September) and quite a few other firms have shown them on 40% at some point. Given the other recent polling, this at least looks like a bit of an outlier - though as ever we need to wait for more evidence to be sure.
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YouGov
Mar 29, 2024 11:37:51 GMT
via mobile
Post by afleitch on Mar 29, 2024 11:37:51 GMT
I think that Labour's share being at a level not seen since the 'Trussgasm' is of some note, regardless of any other movement. Presumably you mean with YouGov rather than all pollsters (I thought they had had one Labour at 40% in the previous 18 months, but perhaps not - they have certainly had a few at 41%) There has been one survey with Labour at 39% (Opinium last September) and quite a few other firms have shown them on 40% at some point. Given the other recent polling, this at least looks like a bit of an outlier - though as ever we need to wait for more evidence to be sure. Yes, with YouGov. Technically it's MRP in January had a 39.5% share with a 13.5% lead which when modelled was pretty brutal. Though it is woth noting that polling in general has seen the two-party share dip back somewhat from 2017/19 (excluding the summer of 2019)
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 3, 2024 9:53:48 GMT
Can't find the ID cards thread so posted here. The second tweet shows the gap between Con and Lab voters for cards etc. Tory voters, albeit at current low polling figures, are definitely not libertarian.
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YouGov
Apr 3, 2024 14:34:35 GMT
via mobile
Post by hullenedge on Apr 3, 2024 14:34:35 GMT
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,714
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Post by iain on Apr 3, 2024 15:17:27 GMT
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Post by aargauer on Apr 3, 2024 15:37:58 GMT
Can't find the ID cards thread so posted here. The second tweet shows the gap between Con and Lab voters for cards etc. Tory voters, albeit at current low polling figures, are definitely not libertarian. Thanks for reminding me why I gave up on the UK. Those figures are a horror show. I've never understood the civil liberties arguments against voluntary ID cards - and think they would be very useful in the UK. Its more of a case of A NEW THING WE MUST OPPOSE. But compulsory, definitely.
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YouGov
Apr 3, 2024 15:46:55 GMT
via mobile
Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 3, 2024 15:46:55 GMT
Some interesting analysis of Reform too.
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YouGov
Apr 3, 2024 16:22:26 GMT
Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Apr 3, 2024 16:22:26 GMT
Of course we shouldn't have ID cards. The current government is one of the most right wing I've ever known, hating on every minority group they can point at. Imagine if an even more right wing lot got in.
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YouGov
Apr 3, 2024 16:26:17 GMT
Post by adlai52 on Apr 3, 2024 16:26:17 GMT
Can the Conservative seat tally in Scotland really be as resilient as that? 5-6 seats for the Scottish Tories in a scenario where the party is down to 150ish nationally?
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 3, 2024 16:32:02 GMT
Of course we shouldn't have ID cards. The current government is one of the most right wing I've ever known, hating on every minority group they can point at. Imagine if an even more right wing lot got in. Yeah, a real government of haters. An Indian PM, a black Home Secretary, a Jewish Deputy PM, a black Trade and Equality Secretary, a Chancellor in an interracial marriage etc. Not to mention large numbers of gay, non-white and a trans MP. Frankly, this is the most diverse government, and perhaps the most diverse governing party in this country's history. Just because we aren't pro-DEI fanatics, or in favour of denigrating this country's history, or its culture, or just because we because we refuse to pretend that females and homosexuals don't exist, does not mean we "hate minorities". It means this government is very modestly conservative and believes in biological fact, biological facts that were universally recognised since we crawled out of the ocean until about three years ago.
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YouGov
Apr 3, 2024 16:39:47 GMT
Post by grumpyguy on Apr 3, 2024 16:39:47 GMT
Can the Conservative seat tally in Scotland really be as resilient as that? 5-6 seats for the Scottish Tories in a scenario where the party is down to 150ish nationally? Yes, because of the SNP collapse. The Con share may well go down, but the Nat share will go down more. It's one of the peculiarities of FPTP.
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YouGov
Apr 3, 2024 16:53:46 GMT
Post by grumpyguy on Apr 3, 2024 16:53:46 GMT
Methodological change in this one, which brings it more in line with E Calculus. But EC makes allowances for by-election gains, and this doesn't. So, for example, Lab. doesn't hold on to Mid-Beds, but comes 2nd (to Tories) in North Shropshire, and in Tiverton and Honiton. Also I question whether Green voters are as uniformly distributed as this suggests they are.
But otherwise, pretty credible, nothing very counter-intuitive.
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msc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 861
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Post by msc on Apr 3, 2024 17:04:49 GMT
Can the Conservative seat tally in Scotland really be as resilient as that? 5-6 seats for the Scottish Tories in a scenario where the party is down to 150ish nationally? Yes, because of the SNP collapse. The Con share may well go down, but the Nat share will go down more. It's one of the peculiarities of FPTP. Based on the assumption of course that in the Scottish Tory seats, the threat to the Union outweighs the anti-Tory feeling. I suspect the Union is safe for the time being, but the Scots Tory MPs might not be.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,247
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YouGov
Apr 3, 2024 17:09:58 GMT
Post by CatholicLeft on Apr 3, 2024 17:09:58 GMT
Methodological change in this one, which brings it more in line with E Calculus. But EC makes allowances for by-election gains, and this doesn't. So, for example, Lab. doesn't hold on to Mid-Beds, but comes 2nd (to Tories) in North Shropshire, and in Tiverton and Honiton. Also I question whether Green voters are as uniformly distributed as this suggests they are. But otherwise, pretty credible, nothing very counter-intuitive. The boundary changes move the more strongly Labour parts of Mid-Bedfordshire in the new Hitchin seat, where Alistair Strathern will be standing, and the YouGov MRP still only puts Labour 2 points down in the new Mid-Beds. I find the precitions here much more convincing than the EC ones which predict Labour gains in Torridge & Tavistock, Devon Central, Didcot & Wantage, and Skipton and Ripon, among others.
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YouGov
Apr 3, 2024 17:19:02 GMT
Post by grumpyguy on Apr 3, 2024 17:19:02 GMT
Methodological change in this one, which brings it more in line with E Calculus. But EC makes allowances for by-election gains, and this doesn't. So, for example, Lab. doesn't hold on to Mid-Beds, but comes 2nd (to Tories) in North Shropshire, and in Tiverton and Honiton. Also I question whether Green voters are as uniformly distributed as this suggests they are. But otherwise, pretty credible, nothing very counter-intuitive. The boundary changes move the more strongly Labour parts of Mid-Bedfordshire in the new Hitchin seat, where Alistair Strathern will be standing, and the YouGov MRP still only puts Labour 2 points down in the new Mid-Beds. I find the precitions here much more convincing than the EC ones which predict Labour gains in Torridge & Tavistock, Devon Central, Didcot & Wantage, and Skipton and Ripon, among others. Fair point about Mid-Beds, thanks for that. I agree that EC is unconvincing, partly because, as I suspect, they build in very generous assumptions about transfer voting. I'm not saying that it won't happen, just that it's impossible to predict how and where it will happen before the campaign starts.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 3, 2024 17:22:37 GMT
This does look more plausible than many of the others, although I think the Lib Dems are overstated. Where is the link to the deailed results?
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