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Post by Merseymike on Aug 31, 2019 18:37:11 GMT
We do seem to be in the midst of a realignment though. The Lib Dems are rapidly becoming the party of the internationalist, vaguely centrist middle class (i.e. the party of Richmond, Hampstead and Chelsea) the time when places like Torbay were Lib Dem seats will likely become a distant memory. The question will be where do voters like me go? Not really right wing enough for the Tories, not left wing or metropolitan enough for Labour, and not pro-EU enough for the Lib Dems. I'd say the Brexit Party but I suspect they'll be a flash in the pan - but there are plenty of seats where a plurality of people are like me (Torbay is a great example but there's probably a dozen others in the South West and many outside). But then many of those seats were won on a mixture of local activity, and the LibDems being the challenger to the Tories in that seat. Not necessarily because of what the LibDems stood for.
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Aug 31, 2019 18:47:14 GMT
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 31, 2019 18:47:14 GMT
The question will be where do voters like me go? Not really right wing enough for the Tories, not left wing or metropolitan enough for Labour, and not pro-EU enough for the Lib Dems. I'd say the Brexit Party but I suspect they'll be a flash in the pan - but there are plenty of seats where a plurality of people are like me (Torbay is a great example but there's probably a dozen others in the South West and many outside). But then many of those seats were won on a mixture of local activity, and the LibDems being the challenger to the Tories in that seat. Not necessarily because of what the LibDems stood for. I just don't know who else could challenge the Conservatives in the South West - Labour have a big city problem, especially in the south, and are seen as more London-centric by the day. The Brexit Party are probably gone by Christmas, unless they can reinvent themselves as a general populist party (which someone like Martin Daubney would be ideally placed to do I guess). I suppose people like me could go Conservative, but there's a mix of political and cultural barriers to it. Especially when there's an Etonian Tory leader (I could respect Theresa May, since her upbringing was very similar to mine, but Boris is very different).
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2019 19:23:44 GMT
I suspect if we don't leave Brexit Party could be hoovering up a lot of votes
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polupolu
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Post by polupolu on Aug 31, 2019 19:26:28 GMT
But then many of those seats were won on a mixture of local activity, and the LibDems being the challenger to the Tories in that seat. Not necessarily because of what the LibDems stood for. I just don't know who else could challenge the Conservatives in the South West - Labour have a big city problem, especially in the south, and are seen as more London-centric by the day. The Brexit Party are probably gone by Christmas, unless they can reinvent themselves as a general populist party (which someone like Martin Daubney would be ideally placed to do I guess). I suppose people like me could go Conservative, but there's a mix of political and cultural barriers to it. Especially when there's an Etonian Tory leader (I could respect Theresa May, since her upbringing was very similar to mine, but Boris is very different). There are a lot of Lib Dems who are not pro-EU - you only have to look at a selection of the posters here to see it. There is, however, a strong tendency to be internationalist and wanting to work with organisations like the United Nations. I suspect our pro-EU stance is more a reflection of that gut instinct, than a particular liking of the structures of the EU as such. I think a belief in internationalism was part of the anti-war-in-Iraq stance as well - our reaction might have been different if the UN had sanctioned the war.
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john07
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Aug 31, 2019 19:27:57 GMT
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Post by john07 on Aug 31, 2019 19:27:57 GMT
We do seem to be in the midst of a realignment though. The Lib Dems are rapidly becoming the party of the internationalist, vaguely centrist middle class (i.e. the party of Richmond, Hampstead and Chelsea) the time when places like Torbay were Lib Dem seats will likely become a distant memory. The question will be where do voters like me go? Not really right wing enough for the Tories, not left wing or metropolitan enough for Labour, and not pro-EU enough for the Lib Dems. I'd say the Brexit Party but I suspect they'll be a flash in the pan - but there are plenty of seats where a plurality of people are like me (Torbay is a great example but there's probably a dozen others in the South West and many outside). Have you considered the Monster Raving Loony Party? But even they have standards!
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Aug 31, 2019 19:31:12 GMT
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 31, 2019 19:31:12 GMT
I just don't know who else could challenge the Conservatives in the South West - Labour have a big city problem, especially in the south, and are seen as more London-centric by the day. The Brexit Party are probably gone by Christmas, unless they can reinvent themselves as a general populist party (which someone like Martin Daubney would be ideally placed to do I guess). I suppose people like me could go Conservative, but there's a mix of political and cultural barriers to it. Especially when there's an Etonian Tory leader (I could respect Theresa May, since her upbringing was very similar to mine, but Boris is very different). There are a lot of Lib Dems who are not pro-EU - you only have to look at a selection of the posters here to see it. There is, however, a strong tendency to be internationalist and wanting to work with organisations like the United Nations. I suspect our pro-EU stance is more a reflection of that gut instinct, than a particular liking of the structures of the EU as such. I think a belief in internationalism was part of the anti-war-in-Iraq stance as well - our reaction might have been different if the UN had sanctioned the war. The thing is, my natural inclination isn't internationalist at all. I would probably support Scottish independence, if people there wanted it, because I believe self-determination over large international power structures. I may well be in the wrong party, because a key reason why I became a Lib Dem is scepticism of the power structures that the Tories and Labour seem to support.
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 31, 2019 19:35:14 GMT
I did not say they would offer better terms. But everyone seems to assume we will be offered worse terms. There is a fair chance the EU will go for a two tier model in terms of integration anyway. What happens when you change your car insurance? Does the old insurer offer you worse terms when you reapply? If we leave there is not going to be any quick rejoining. But I think the EU will want to at least create the possibility of a good deal to encourage the Remainers, and the demographics are in favour of an eventual return. I am pretty sure rejoining will be a core offer from the Lib Dems to hold onto all these new voters, including pro-EU Tories. One of the few things keeping me in the Lib Dems over the last year or so is the idea of this pro-EU stuff being temporary - after all I'm liberal, but have no allegiance at all towards an aggressive supranational bureaucracy. If we become the party of rejoin, I will leave the party on November 1st, as would much of our vote in Torbay, Barnstaple, Eastbourne, etc - people who vote for us to support the little guy over big business and trade unions, rather than supporting powerful entities like the EU. The polls crosstabs show that the current Lib Dem voting intention is overwhelmingly Remain - something like 97%. It has changed since 2017 mainly because the new voters since then are almost all Remainers, and some Leavers have left. Having spent so many years in the wilderness of 8% it would be crazy for the Party to abandon those voters.. The constitution also says "within the European Community we affirm the values of federalism and integration". Now that is bit out of date but does suggest Lib Dem policy will continue to include membership of the EU, as Liberal Policy did before we joined the Common Market.. There has not been any sudden change here, just that Brexit has become the big issue of the day so people have started noticing what the majority of Lib Dems have always thought about it.. However the constitution contains many other good things that define British Liberalism. I would hope that anyone who agrees with most of it could stay a member. I have never agreed with our education policy (being a supporter of grammar schools) and I left for 5 years over the pledge, but here I am...
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 31, 2019 19:42:37 GMT
There are a lot of Lib Dems who are not pro-EU - you only have to look at a selection of the posters here to see it. There is, however, a strong tendency to be internationalist and wanting to work with organisations like the United Nations. I suspect our pro-EU stance is more a reflection of that gut instinct, than a particular liking of the structures of the EU as such. I think a belief in internationalism was part of the anti-war-in-Iraq stance as well - our reaction might have been different if the UN had sanctioned the war. The thing is, my natural inclination isn't internationalist at all. I would probably support Scottish independence, if people there wanted it, because I believe self-determination over large international power structures. I may well be in the wrong party, because a key reason why I became a Lib Dem is scepticism of the power structures that the Tories and Labour seem to support. You are not in the wrong Party for that. I have never seen any conflict between taking decisions at the lowest possible level (which is in the constitution) and being in the EU. Federalism is a system of dispersal of power, not centralisation, for example. But we live in a globalised world now where global corporations are controlling so much of what happens. We need organisations like the EU to take on and regulate big business, an excellent example being phone roaming charges
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Aug 31, 2019 19:46:18 GMT
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jamie likes this
Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2019 19:46:18 GMT
I don't believe internationalism and euroscepticism are polar opposites
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jamie
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Aug 31, 2019 20:00:01 GMT
Post by jamie on Aug 31, 2019 20:00:01 GMT
I don't believe internationalism and euroscepticism are polar opposites Very true. You can disagree with the EU as an entity on its own merits while still being an internationalist, and there’s also a more free market argument about Europe holding us back from engaging with the rest of the world. Not saying they’re right, but a decent number of people will hold these views.
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 31, 2019 20:04:00 GMT
But then many of those seats were won on a mixture of local activity, and the LibDems being the challenger to the Tories in that seat. Not necessarily because of what the LibDems stood for. I just don't know who else could challenge the Conservatives in the South West - Labour have a big city problem, especially in the south, and are seen as more London-centric by the day. The Brexit Party are probably gone by Christmas, unless they can reinvent themselves as a general populist party (which someone like Martin Daubney would be ideally placed to do I guess). I suppose people like me could go Conservative, but there's a mix of political and cultural barriers to it. Especially when there's an Etonian Tory leader (I could respect Theresa May, since her upbringing was very similar to mine, but Boris is very different). Labour could win a couple of Cornwall seats and the other Plymouth seat but they aren't likely to win any others, and never were.
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Aug 31, 2019 20:05:13 GMT
Post by Merseymike on Aug 31, 2019 20:05:13 GMT
I don't believe internationalism and euroscepticism are polar opposites I agree. Too many people equate internationalism and support for globalisation The socialist approach is the opposite.
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Aug 31, 2019 20:13:00 GMT
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 31, 2019 20:13:00 GMT
I just don't know who else could challenge the Conservatives in the South West - Labour have a big city problem, especially in the south, and are seen as more London-centric by the day. The Brexit Party are probably gone by Christmas, unless they can reinvent themselves as a general populist party (which someone like Martin Daubney would be ideally placed to do I guess). I suppose people like me could go Conservative, but there's a mix of political and cultural barriers to it. Especially when there's an Etonian Tory leader (I could respect Theresa May, since her upbringing was very similar to mine, but Boris is very different). Labour could win a couple of Cornwall seats and the other Plymouth seat but they aren't likely to win any others, and never were. The issue is, demographically at least, somewhere like Torbay should be winnable for Labour. 55% working class, and hardly part of the elite. Similar factors would apply to Yeovil, North Devon, and even maybe South Dorset (Weymouth should be a Labour town). I suppose there's a cultural factor, like how suburban northern seats go Labour (Blaydon, Sefton Central et al), but a Labour party who are more culturally populist could easily win the votes of people in those seats (and perhaps could even win me).
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Aug 31, 2019 20:29:40 GMT
Labour could win a couple of Cornwall seats and the other Plymouth seat but they aren't likely to win any others, and never were. The issue is, demographically at least, somewhere like Torbay should be winnable for Labour. 55% working class, and hardly part of the elite. Similar factors would apply to Yeovil, North Devon, and even maybe South Dorset (Weymouth should be a Labour town). I suppose there's a cultural factor, like how suburban northern seats go Labour (Blaydon, Sefton Central et al), but a Labour party who are more culturally populist could easily win the votes of people in those seats (and perhaps could even win me). Torbay feels quite similar to Scarborough and Whitby to me.
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Aug 31, 2019 20:45:27 GMT
Post by greenhert on Aug 31, 2019 20:45:27 GMT
The issue is, demographically at least, somewhere like Torbay should be winnable for Labour. 55% working class, and hardly part of the elite. Similar factors would apply to Yeovil, North Devon, and even maybe South Dorset (Weymouth should be a Labour town). I suppose there's a cultural factor, like how suburban northern seats go Labour (Blaydon, Sefton Central et al), but a Labour party who are more culturally populist could easily win the votes of people in those seats (and perhaps could even win me). Torbay feels quite similar to Scarborough and Whitby to me. And the Liberals did well in Scarborough (& Whitby) for a while via Michael Pitts. However there the Liberal potential was never consolidated, unlike in Torbay and Southport.
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Aug 31, 2019 20:52:38 GMT
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 31, 2019 20:52:38 GMT
The issue is, demographically at least, somewhere like Torbay should be winnable for Labour. 55% working class, and hardly part of the elite. Similar factors would apply to Yeovil, North Devon, and even maybe South Dorset (Weymouth should be a Labour town). I suppose there's a cultural factor, like how suburban northern seats go Labour (Blaydon, Sefton Central et al), but a Labour party who are more culturally populist could easily win the votes of people in those seats (and perhaps could even win me). Torbay feels quite similar to Scarborough and Whitby to me. I suppose the one difference is Torbay is entirely urban/suburban. Scarborough and Whitby is a seat combining three very different areas - urban Scarborough (which Labour would never lose bar a Conservative landslide), Whitby (which is probably about evenly split, though I'd happily defer to someone with more local knowledge), and the rural areas (very Conservative).
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Post by greenhert on Aug 31, 2019 21:13:34 GMT
Labour could win a couple of Cornwall seats and the other Plymouth seat but they aren't likely to win any others, and never were. The issue is, demographically at least, somewhere like Torbay should be winnable for Labour. 55% working class, and hardly part of the elite. Similar factors would apply to Yeovil, North Devon, and even maybe South Dorset (Weymouth should be a Labour town). I suppose there's a cultural factor, like how suburban northern seats go Labour (Blaydon, Sefton Central et al), but a Labour party who are more culturally populist could easily win the votes of people in those seats (and perhaps could even win me). South Dorset did elect a Labour MP, Jim Knight, in 2001 and 2005, and Guy Barnett in a 1962 by-election (albeit due to a split in the Conservative vote by Sir Piers Debenham).
Yeovil missed out on electing a Labour MP in 1945 by 174 votes; the same year Taunton (a Lib Dem seat from 1997 to 2001 and again from 2005 to 2015) did elect a Labour MP (Victor Collins). A cultural factor definitely exists but it is not overriding.
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Aug 31, 2019 21:23:14 GMT
Torbay feels quite similar to Scarborough and Whitby to me. I suppose the one difference is Torbay is entirely urban/suburban. Scarborough and Whitby is a seat combining three very different areas - urban Scarborough (which Labour would never lose bar a Conservative landslide), Whitby (which is probably about evenly split, though I'd happily defer to someone with more local knowledge), and the rural areas (very Conservative). Just what I was think as I was reading it. (Sat here in Victoria Square opposite Whitby Railway Station with a draft Focus on my desk.)
Yes, Whitby is very split. In general, whoever has the effort and resources to put the effort in gets in. The town used to return Liberals, then replaced by Labour, then became a sea of blue, then one LibDem towering over the other five Conservatives, then Independents who went Conservative while Labour got in and then supplanted them. The bluest seat in Whitby was Lab+Con for the last eight years, as was the reddest seat in town. The middle seat (where I am) was Con+Con until this year when it's gone Con+Lab. The six town seats are now 3Lab+3Con.
Knowing the background of town councillors, I know the town council is effectively 1/4+1/4+1/4+1/4 Lab,Con,LibDem,Oth but the council is non-political and most members tend to see it as rather coarse to use the town council as a Party Political soapbox. (One particular member keeps trying to push motions on national issues that seem to be cut'n'pasted from Momentum conference speeches.)
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J.G.Harston
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Aug 31, 2019 21:35:30 GMT
Post by J.G.Harston on Aug 31, 2019 21:35:30 GMT
Torbay feels quite similar to Scarborough and Whitby to me. And the Liberals did well in Scarborough (& Whitby) for a while via Michael Pitts. However there the Liberal potential was never consolidated, unlike in Torbay and Southport. I don't think I'm revealing anything when saying the powerhouse of S&W LibDems was Margaret Pitts, and since she died 10ish years ago the local party has stagnated.
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Aug 31, 2019 21:36:24 GMT
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 31, 2019 21:36:24 GMT
I suppose the one difference is Torbay is entirely urban/suburban. Scarborough and Whitby is a seat combining three very different areas - urban Scarborough (which Labour would never lose bar a Conservative landslide), Whitby (which is probably about evenly split, though I'd happily defer to someone with more local knowledge), and the rural areas (very Conservative). Just what I was think as I was reading it. (Sat here in Victoria Square opposite Whitby Railway Station with a draft Focus on my desk.)
Yes, Whitby is very split. In general, whoever has the effort and resources to put the effort in gets in. The town used to return Liberals, then replaced by Labour, then became a sea of blue, then one LibDem towering over the other five Conservatives, then Independents who went Conservative while Labour got in and then supplanted them. The bluest seat in Whitby was Lab+Con for the last eight years, as was the reddest seat in town. The middle seat (where I am) was Con+Con until this year when it's gone Con+Lab. The six town seats are now 3Lab+3Con.
Knowing the background of town councillors, I know the town council is effectively 1/4+1/4+1/4+1/4 Lab,Con,LibDem,Oth but the council is non-political and most members tend to see it as rather coarse to use the town council as a Party Political soapbox. (One particular member keeps trying to push motions on national issues that seem to be cut'n'pasted from Momentum conference speeches.)
Yeah, I'm vaguely familiar with the area, if only because it's the southernmost extent of the main bus ticket in the North East, so I've ended up there a lot. It definitely feels like a split town, despite being very different from Northampton or other places which come to mind as your stereotypical marginal. From what I've noticed, it seems rather unpredictable at a local level, other than the bizarrely named Streonshalh ward which is more consistently opposed to the Conservatives. I suppose because I've only visited and struggle to imagine people living there, I find the idea of its politics bizzare, like central London or Cambridge. If I had to guess, I'd say even between the parties and very Brexity, but the idea of votes there just feels weird or something.
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