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Post by woollyliberal on Aug 30, 2019 19:18:09 GMT
Given recent YouGov polls the 17% looks like an outlier. Strictly speaking it is within the MoE so not an outlier. You should expect a poll that is 3 points from the mean every so often. Tidily, YouGov have a 17 and a 23 in the last couple of months, just to illustrate the point.
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YouGov
Aug 31, 2019 0:22:20 GMT
Post by greenchristian on Aug 31, 2019 0:22:20 GMT
If we leave. At least initially. There will be a bounce for Boris. He would consume whats left of tory brexitiers still voting brexit party. If we don't the tories will bleed votes to brexit party. I think brexitiers will soon realise that only way to leave is to elect a parliament of leavers Surely that depends on just how bad the short term effects of leaving are. If it's very bad then he could easily lose another tranche of voters to the Lib Dems and get very few back from Farage. Remember that a large proportion of leavers still seem to believe that no deal will be largely consequence-free.
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Deleted
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YouGov
Aug 31, 2019 8:08:08 GMT
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jamie likes this
Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2019 8:08:08 GMT
I'm not sure how many tories that would vote lib dem and aren't already are left
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YouGov
Aug 31, 2019 8:21:11 GMT
Post by greenchristian on Aug 31, 2019 8:21:11 GMT
I'm not sure how many tories that would vote lib dem and aren't already are left I'm suggesting that No Deal being really bad would increase the number of Tories who would consider it. There are still a lot of Tory voters who don't believe that No Deal will have some quite severe short-term consequences. It seems likely that some of those would abandon their party in the event that No Deal does produce utter chaos, and unlikely that they would jump ship in Farage's direction. In that event the only places they could plausibly go are to the Lib Dems or the Not Sures/Won't Votes. And if they want to express their outrage at events (either to a pollster or at the ballot box) actively choosing somebody else seems more likely.
Or, to put it more succinctly, if the reality of No Deal does turn out to be as bad as is being predicted then it is likely to change quite a lot of peoples' opinions, and not in a pro-Brexit direction.
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Post by froome on Aug 31, 2019 8:36:05 GMT
I think the reality now is that there are not that many voters who are so instinctively tied to one party that they would not consider voting for another in some circumstances.
And that includes members of those parties, as can be seen by numerous comments on this forum over the years.
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jamie
Top Poster
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YouGov
Aug 31, 2019 9:26:06 GMT
Post by jamie on Aug 31, 2019 9:26:06 GMT
The problem is that the current polling is to a large extent shaped by whether/how we leave the EU. Should we actually leave then the debate will change to whether we should rejoin (probably a less popular proposal than not leaving at all), what kind of deal we need if at all, more focus on domestic issues etc. A lot will depend on what positions each of the main parties take, but I could imagine Labour winning back some leave voters who think ‘job done’, the Lib Dem’s falling back as people accept we’ve left, and a Brexit Party collapse as their goal is achieved.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 31, 2019 10:12:36 GMT
I think the reality now is that there are not that many voters who are so instinctively tied to one party that they would not consider voting for another in some circumstances. And that includes members of those parties, as can be seen by numerous comments on this forum over the years. This year the Tories have hit a polling low of 17% (an all time record) and Labour 18% (equalling theirs) Only a *relatively* short time ago LibDems scored 4% in a poll, equalling their lowest since the 1950s. So yes, the irreducible "core" votes for all parties are lower than they used to be.
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YouGov
Aug 31, 2019 12:54:29 GMT
Post by London Lad on Aug 31, 2019 12:54:29 GMT
Or, to put it more succinctly, if the reality of No Deal does turn out to be as bad as is being predicted then it is likely to change quite a lot of peoples' opinions, and not in a pro-Brexit direction.
But we would already have left so the arguments over Brexit would be moot. There would be a lot of claim and counter claim about who is to blame for any chaos but that can just as easily be directed at remainers who have tried to block any sensible leaving deal as it can those who accepted no-deal.
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Deleted
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YouGov
Aug 31, 2019 13:05:55 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2019 13:05:55 GMT
I don't think rejoining is remotely possible. Schengen and the euro would be completely unpalatable to the majority of British voting public. Some have suggested EFTA/EEA which would be more likely
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YouGov
Aug 31, 2019 14:41:26 GMT
Post by andrew111 on Aug 31, 2019 14:41:26 GMT
I don't think rejoining is remotely possible. Schengen and the euro would be completely unpalatable to the majority of British voting public. Some have suggested EFTA/EEA which would be more likely That is all supposition. Article 49 just says the terms of entry are for negotiation and then agreement by all the member states plus the Parliament. The political prize of getting Britain back would be considerable and who knows what might be on offer
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Post by pepperminttea on Aug 31, 2019 15:36:37 GMT
I don't think rejoining is remotely possible. Schengen and the euro would be completely unpalatable to the majority of British voting public. Some have suggested EFTA/EEA which would be more likely That is all supposition. Article 49 just says the terms of entry are for negotiation and then agreement by all the member states plus the Parliament. The political prize of getting Britain back would be considerable and who knows what might be on offer I don't think there's any way they'd offer us better terms upon rejoining , to do so would allow people to claim the Brexit project had been a 'success' of sorts. Assuming Northern Ireland is still part of the UK they wouldn't make us join Schengen for the simple reason that Ireland is not part of it. Forcing Britiain into Schengen with Ireland outside of it would create problems at the Irish border. I'm 50/50 about the Euro, it's possible that a competent British negotiating team could secure an opt-out but the rebate on the other hand would definitely be gone.
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YouGov
Aug 31, 2019 15:51:37 GMT
Post by pepperminttea on Aug 31, 2019 15:51:37 GMT
A 23.5% increase within a few days is unlikely. Perhaps the last result was too low for the LDs and this too high. Looks more like a suuurge to me! Whilst I switched my voting intention from Tory to Lib Dem a couple of months ago Boris's latest antics has really compounded it (part of me was hoping, naively, that he wouldn't be as bad as I feared). Anecdotally I know a number of people who habitually vote Conservative and were fairly sympathetic towards Theresa May but now find themselves unable to vote for a Boris government (some of whom voted Leave). Whilst I get that every poll has a margin of error and the trend is the most important thing I suspect the Lib Dem jump here could be linked to them gobbling up the remainder of the Tory Remain/soft Leave vote whilst the Tories replace the votes by gaining from the Brexit Party.
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 31, 2019 15:58:43 GMT
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YouGov
Aug 31, 2019 16:16:20 GMT
Post by andrew111 on Aug 31, 2019 16:16:20 GMT
That is all supposition. Article 49 just says the terms of entry are for negotiation and then agreement by all the member states plus the Parliament. The political prize of getting Britain back would be considerable and who knows what might be on offer I don't think there's any way they'd offer us better terms upon rejoining , to do so would allow people to claim the Brexit project had been a 'success' of sorts. Assuming Northern Ireland is still part of the UK they wouldn't make us join Schengen for the simple reason that Ireland is not part of it. Forcing Britiain into Schengen with Ireland outside of it would create problems at the Irish border. I'm 50/50 about the Euro, it's possible that a competent British negotiating team could secure an opt-out but the rebate on the other hand would definitely be gone. I did not say they would offer better terms. But everyone seems to assume we will be offered worse terms. There is a fair chance the EU will go for a two tier model in terms of integration anyway. What happens when you change your car insurance? Does the old insurer offer you worse terms when you reapply? If we leave there is not going to be any quick rejoining. But I think the EU will want to at least create the possibility of a good deal to encourage the Remainers, and the demographics are in favour of an eventual return. I am pretty sure rejoining will be a core offer from the Lib Dems to hold onto all these new voters, including pro-EU Tories.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Aug 31, 2019 16:22:54 GMT
I don't think there's any way they'd offer us better terms upon rejoining , to do so would allow people to claim the Brexit project had been a 'success' of sorts. Assuming Northern Ireland is still part of the UK they wouldn't make us join Schengen for the simple reason that Ireland is not part of it. Forcing Britiain into Schengen with Ireland outside of it would create problems at the Irish border. I'm 50/50 about the Euro, it's possible that a competent British negotiating team could secure an opt-out but the rebate on the other hand would definitely be gone. I did not say they would offer better terms. But everyone seems to assume we will be offered worse terms. There is a fair chance the EU will go for a two tier model in terms of integration anyway. What happens when you change your car insurance? Does the old insurer offer you worse terms when you reapply? If we leave there is not going to be any quick rejoining. But I think the EU will want to at least create the possibility of a good deal to encourage the Remainers, and the demographics are in favour of an eventual return. I am pretty sure rejoining will be a core offer from the Lib Dems to hold onto all these new voters, including pro-EU Tories. Shush Andrew. The great Brexiteer dream is no longer that they can convince anyone that things'll be better. The aim now is to say that the UK signed on the dotted line to leave and there's no cancellation clause, and furthermore that going back will only be possible on worse terms. The possibility that they might have to argue that what they dump on us on 31st Oct is actually better than going back in on current terms is going to cause hysterics.
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 31, 2019 17:44:13 GMT
I don't think there's any way they'd offer us better terms upon rejoining , to do so would allow people to claim the Brexit project had been a 'success' of sorts. Assuming Northern Ireland is still part of the UK they wouldn't make us join Schengen for the simple reason that Ireland is not part of it. Forcing Britiain into Schengen with Ireland outside of it would create problems at the Irish border. I'm 50/50 about the Euro, it's possible that a competent British negotiating team could secure an opt-out but the rebate on the other hand would definitely be gone. I did not say they would offer better terms. But everyone seems to assume we will be offered worse terms. There is a fair chance the EU will go for a two tier model in terms of integration anyway. What happens when you change your car insurance? Does the old insurer offer you worse terms when you reapply? If we leave there is not going to be any quick rejoining. But I think the EU will want to at least create the possibility of a good deal to encourage the Remainers, and the demographics are in favour of an eventual return. I am pretty sure rejoining will be a core offer from the Lib Dems to hold onto all these new voters, including pro-EU Tories. One of the few things keeping me in the Lib Dems over the last year or so is the idea of this pro-EU stuff being temporary - after all I'm liberal, but have no allegiance at all towards an aggressive supranational bureaucracy. If we become the party of rejoin, I will leave the party on November 1st, as would much of our vote in Torbay, Barnstaple, Eastbourne, etc - people who vote for us to support the little guy over big business and trade unions, rather than supporting powerful entities like the EU.
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Post by pepperminttea on Aug 31, 2019 17:55:22 GMT
I don't think there's any way they'd offer us better terms upon rejoining , to do so would allow people to claim the Brexit project had been a 'success' of sorts. Assuming Northern Ireland is still part of the UK they wouldn't make us join Schengen for the simple reason that Ireland is not part of it. Forcing Britiain into Schengen with Ireland outside of it would create problems at the Irish border. I'm 50/50 about the Euro, it's possible that a competent British negotiating team could secure an opt-out but the rebate on the other hand would definitely be gone. I did not say they would offer better terms. But everyone seems to assume we will be offered worse terms. There is a fair chance the EU will go for a two tier model in terms of integration anyway. What happens when you change your car insurance? Does the old insurer offer you worse terms when you reapply? If we leave there is not going to be any quick rejoining. But I think the EU will want to at least create the possibility of a good deal to encourage the Remainers, and the demographics are in favour of an eventual return. I am pretty sure rejoining will be a core offer from the Lib Dems to hold onto all these new voters, including pro-EU Tories. I'm not sure that membership of the EU is comparable to car insurance. If you mean that the EU won't necessarily offer punitive terms to rejoin, I tend to agree. However the best I could see them offering would be more or less what we have now without the rebate (counties like France and Spain would never allow us back in with it). As for the political salience of rejoining, it probably all depends on how we left. If we left in an orderly fashion with a deal and there was little to no noticeable change on peoples' everyday lives then the conversation would move on and rejoining would be a politically irrelevant message and would confine the Lib Dems to the sidelines should they make it a big part of their platform. If however we leave with a chaotic No Deal rejoining will be a very salient political issue which the Lib Dems will be able to make a lot of political capital out of. At present the latter seems by far the more likely outcome. I do agree with you that I don't think we'll rejoin for a fairly long time after we've left, if at all. Whilst the EU would want Britain back in an ideal world they don't want a Britain back where approximately half the country despises their political project and has the potential to be extremely obstructive. I would say joining EFTA (my preferred option in the first place) or a similar kind of deal would be more likely under a Remainy government than actually rejoining, at least in the short term.
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Post by pepperminttea on Aug 31, 2019 18:22:04 GMT
I did not say they would offer better terms. But everyone seems to assume we will be offered worse terms. There is a fair chance the EU will go for a two tier model in terms of integration anyway. What happens when you change your car insurance? Does the old insurer offer you worse terms when you reapply? If we leave there is not going to be any quick rejoining. But I think the EU will want to at least create the possibility of a good deal to encourage the Remainers, and the demographics are in favour of an eventual return. I am pretty sure rejoining will be a core offer from the Lib Dems to hold onto all these new voters, including pro-EU Tories. One of the few things keeping me in the Lib Dems over the last year or so is the idea of this pro-EU stuff being temporary - after all I'm liberal, but have no allegiance at all towards an aggressive supranational bureaucracy. If we become the party of rejoin, I will leave the party on November 1st, as would much of our vote in Torbay, Barnstaple, Eastbourne, etc - people who vote for us to support the little guy over big business and trade unions, rather than supporting powerful entities like the EU. We do seem to be in the midst of a realignment though. The Lib Dems are rapidly becoming the party of the internationalist, vaguely centrist middle class (i.e. the party of Richmond, Hampstead and Chelsea) the time when places like Torbay were Lib Dem seats will likely become a distant memory.
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YouGov
Aug 31, 2019 18:26:20 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Aug 31, 2019 18:26:20 GMT
I did not say they would offer better terms. But everyone seems to assume we will be offered worse terms. There is a fair chance the EU will go for a two tier model in terms of integration anyway. What happens when you change your car insurance? Does the old insurer offer you worse terms when you reapply? If we leave there is not going to be any quick rejoining. But I think the EU will want to at least create the possibility of a good deal to encourage the Remainers, and the demographics are in favour of an eventual return. I am pretty sure rejoining will be a core offer from the Lib Dems to hold onto all these new voters, including pro-EU Tories. I'm not sure that membership of the EU is comparable to car insurance. If you mean that the EU won't necessarily offer punitive terms to rejoin, I tend to agree. However the best I could see them offering would be more or less what we have now without the rebate (counties like France and Spain would never allow us back in with it). As for the political salience of rejoining, it probably all depends on how we left. If we left in an orderly fashion with a deal and there was little to no noticeable change on peoples' everyday lives then the conversation would move on and rejoining would be a politically irrelevant message and would confine the Lib Dems to the sidelines should they make it a big part of their platform. If however we leave with a chaotic No Deal rejoining will be a very salient political issue which the Lib Dems will be able to make a lot of political capital out of. At present the latter seems by far the more likely outcome. I do agree with you that I don't think we'll rejoin for a fairly long time after we've left, if at all. Whilst the EU would want Britain back in an ideal world they don't want a Britain back where approximately half the country despises their political project and has the potential to be extremely obstructive. I would say joining EFTA (my preferred option in the first place) or a similar kind of deal would be more likely under a Remainy government than actually rejoining, at least in the short term. A lot would depend on how badly they want us in. On paper we've got a lot to offer (including an object lesson to others on the problems of leaving) but at least some of them will wonder if we're worth the grief. The rebate is an anomaly designed to fix a structural cock-up and I agree that there would be serious opposition to re-introducing it, but it might be tricky for the EU to refuse a UK rebate while maintaining others for e.g. Germany and Denmark so there might be options around e.g. CAP reform to remove the need for all rebates. Whereas EFTA or EEA would be a simple fix which would buy everyone time to see what happens and might turn out to be the best long-term option anyway. I don't think I can find it but I think Jo Swinson said something along those lines recently. In a hypothetical LD-led govt (can't believe I'm typing that, but there you go) I'd say the brightest manifesto pledge would be to negotiate terms for both EFTA and EU membership and then come back with a recommendation. People will cringe but I think any such offer would have to be put to a referendum. (I don't think referendums can be put back in the box. The Swiss seem to get by with them anyway. We just have to do them better. IMO the 1979 Scottish devolution proviso that 40% of the electorate had to approve a change was a perfectly sound rule in any proposal requiring constitutional change.)
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YouGov
Aug 31, 2019 18:30:44 GMT
via mobile
Post by bjornhattan on Aug 31, 2019 18:30:44 GMT
One of the few things keeping me in the Lib Dems over the last year or so is the idea of this pro-EU stuff being temporary - after all I'm liberal, but have no allegiance at all towards an aggressive supranational bureaucracy. If we become the party of rejoin, I will leave the party on November 1st, as would much of our vote in Torbay, Barnstaple, Eastbourne, etc - people who vote for us to support the little guy over big business and trade unions, rather than supporting powerful entities like the EU. We do seem to be in the midst of a realignment though. The Lib Dems are rapidly becoming the party of the internationalist, vaguely centrist middle class (i.e. the party of Richmond, Hampstead and Chelsea) the time when places like Torbay were Lib Dem seats will likely become a distant memory. The question will be where do voters like me go? Not really right wing enough for the Tories, not left wing or metropolitan enough for Labour, and not pro-EU enough for the Lib Dems. I'd say the Brexit Party but I suspect they'll be a flash in the pan - but there are plenty of seats where a plurality of people are like me (Torbay is a great example but there's probably a dozen others in the South West and many outside).
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