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Post by carlton43 on Aug 24, 2019 11:45:04 GMT
If we can contrive a squeeze on BP down to 8% or lower and get ourselves to 36% or above then I think the worst of the May and BP damage will be over and the damage to Labour will be as great as it is to us. On those sort of figures I would fancya GE. Worked for Mrs May so why not for Mr Johnson? No two GEs are the same. Each has its own dynamics. Each is a fresh canvass. Johnson is a better campaigner than May. Well, who isn't? And a Dominic Cummings input is likely to help. This time the Corbyn star is on the descent rather than ascent and Brexit could be made to work more to our advantage with all but the BP on the other side and sharing the remainer vote. This will be entirely down to who gets to write the agenda for the GE and how that agenda is deployed and played to the public. I feel quite good about this whereas last time we went late and on the wrong theme with a piss poor manifesto and a with a lacklustre campaign built round a piss poor performer.
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Post by archaeologist on Aug 24, 2019 12:21:45 GMT
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,893
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YouGov
Aug 24, 2019 12:55:14 GMT
Post by jamie on Aug 24, 2019 12:55:14 GMT
The next election will be a question of which party can retain the most of its 2017 vote share. Johnson has had a good start and I suspect the Brexit Party has a low floor should Johnson continue on the path to no deal. Conversely, Corbyn hasn’t really gained many of the Lib Dem defectors back yet and I very much suspect they will have a higher floor than the Brexit Party.
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Deleted
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YouGov
Aug 24, 2019 13:13:00 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2019 13:13:00 GMT
In reality much depends on if we've left by the 1st of November. Consistently Boris has said no ifs no buts. Naturally raising expectations like this will have an affect should we not leave. Boris might be getting his excuses ready 'parliament vs the people' etc.
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Deleted
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YouGov
Aug 24, 2019 16:52:52 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2019 16:52:52 GMT
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Deleted
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YouGov
Aug 24, 2019 21:29:45 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2019 21:29:45 GMT
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YouGov
Aug 26, 2019 14:27:24 GMT
Post by London Lad on Aug 26, 2019 14:27:24 GMT
In reality much depends on if we've left by the 1st of November. Consistently Boris has said no ifs no buts. Naturally raising expectations like this will have an affect should we not leave. Boris might be getting his excuses ready 'parliament vs the people' etc. Agree - Boris seems to be getting the benefit of the doubt now. However if he fails to deliver Brexit at the end of Oct then his support is likely to wash away very quickly.
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YouGov
Aug 28, 2019 23:18:02 GMT
Post by Andrew_S on Aug 28, 2019 23:18:02 GMT
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YouGov
Aug 29, 2019 10:37:11 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 29, 2019 10:37:11 GMT
Tories might be creeping up, but they did jump to 31-32% at the end of July so it is not an established trend yet
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Deleted
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YouGov
Aug 29, 2019 16:39:03 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2019 16:39:03 GMT
How are the government doing on Brexit?
Well 19% Badly 72%
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YouGov
Aug 30, 2019 14:51:31 GMT
Post by Andrew_S on Aug 30, 2019 14:51:31 GMT
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 33% (-1) LAB; 22% (-) LDEM: 21% (+4) BREX: 12% (-1) GRN: 7% (-1)
via @yougov , 28 - 29 Aug Chgs. w/ 28 Aug
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050
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YouGov
Aug 30, 2019 14:55:33 GMT
Post by middyman on Aug 30, 2019 14:55:33 GMT
A 23.5% increase within a few days is unlikely. Perhaps the last result was too low for the LDs and this too high.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 30, 2019 15:12:31 GMT
How are the government doing on Brexit? Well 19% Badly 72% Of course the 72% is made up of people who think the government is doing badly for completely contradictory reasons.
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YouGov
Aug 30, 2019 15:30:11 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 30, 2019 15:30:11 GMT
A 23.5% increase within a few days is unlikely. Perhaps the last result was too low for the LDs and this too high. Looks more like a suuurge to me!
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YouGov
Aug 30, 2019 16:42:27 GMT
Post by tonygreaves on Aug 30, 2019 16:42:27 GMT
Given recent YouGov polls the 17% looks like an outlier. But are YouGov doing polls every other day now? Seems like they are making a bid to take over the whole kerboosh.
The big questions for them all are: (1) will we leave (crash out) on 31st October; and (2) if we do or don't, what will the polls look like a week later? The truth at the moment is simply that we do not know the answer to either question.
Meanwhile I have been requested to make contingency plans to sit next weekend and to bring a sleeping bag.
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Deleted
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Aug 30, 2019 16:49:18 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2019 16:49:18 GMT
If we leave. At least initially. There will be a bounce for Boris. He would consume whats left of tory brexitiers still voting brexit party. If we don't the tories will bleed votes to brexit party. I think brexitiers will soon realise that only way to leave is to elect a parliament of leavers
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YouGov
Aug 30, 2019 17:20:19 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 30, 2019 17:20:19 GMT
Given recent YouGov polls the 17% looks like an outlier. But are YouGov doing polls every other day now? Seems like they are making a bid to take over the whole kerboosh. The big questions for them all are: (1) will we leave (crash out) on 31st October; and (2) if we do or don't, what will the polls look like a week later? The truth at the moment is simply that we do not know the answer to either question. Meanwhile I have been requested to make contingency plans to sit next weekend and to bring a sleeping bag. I am sure the Tory filibuster will ensure a good night's sleep
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 30, 2019 17:25:12 GMT
Given recent YouGov polls the 17% looks like an outlier. But are YouGov doing polls every other day now? Seems like they are making a bid to take over the whole kerboosh. The big questions for them all are: (1) will we leave (crash out) on 31st October; and (2) if we do or don't, what will the polls look like a week later? The truth at the moment is simply that we do not know the answer to either question. Meanwhile I have been requested to make contingency plans to sit next weekend and to bring a sleeping bag. YouGov do a poll every time someone pays them..
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Post by woollyliberal on Aug 30, 2019 19:15:24 GMT
A 23.5% increase within a few days is unlikely. Perhaps the last result was too low for the LDs and this too high. The average of the last 18 YouGov polls has the Lib Dems on 20%. 7 of those polls are 20%. 3 are 21% and 4 are 19%. 2 are 22%. There's one each of 17% and 23%. That's pretty much the scale of noise within the margin of error. The correct conclusion to draw is that the Lib Dem score is unchanged over that period. Over the same period, Labour have averaged 20.5%. Looking at the trend, they were averaging 20% at the start of that period and are now averaging 21. Given that the Greens have dropped 1% in the same period, some of the remain vote seems to be going home. The Tories started off at 19% and are now at 31% or so. Pretty much this has come from the Brexit Party and UKIP.
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050
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Post by middyman on Aug 30, 2019 19:16:48 GMT
A 23.5% increase within a few days is unlikely. Perhaps the last result was too low for the LDs and this too high. The average of the last 18 YouGov polls has the Lib Dems on 20%. 7 of those polls are 20%. 3 are 21% and 4 are 19%. 2 are 22%. There's one each of 17% and 23%. That's pretty much the scale of noise within the margin of error. The correct conclusion to draw is that the Lib Dem score is unchanged over that period. Over the same period, Labour have averaged 20.5%. Looking at the trend, they were averaging 20% at the start of that period and are now averaging 21. Given that the Greens have dropped 1% in the same period, some of the remain vote seems to be going home. The Tories started off at 19% and are now at 31% or so. Pretty much this has come from the Brexit Party and UKIP. Thank you for that.
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