Vibe
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Jul 27, 2019 23:53:52 GMT
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Post by Vibe on Jul 27, 2019 23:53:52 GMT
All good things must come to an end.. Can they blow the Chance of a big majority twice? Let's see what 31st October brings first.
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Jul 28, 2019 8:26:11 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 28, 2019 8:26:11 GMT
Presumably still 9% or so for the Greens not yet declared..
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 28, 2019 8:45:26 GMT
Nicely done PoD, and remarkable how the changes are so close to the equivalents for Johnson (for UKIP read BxP) except that he starts 10 points lower. Of course, Theresa May self-combusted on an election campaign, making the decision to major on her superiority over Corbyn ("Theresa May's Conservatives") look pretty silly. Is there any prospect that Boris Johnson might at any point drop a colossal brick? (Chin rubbing smiley) The interesting thing is that there was 52% support for firmly Brexit Parties when May took over, but only 44% now. It does look as though substantial numbers of Tory Remain voters have gone Lib Dem or Green since 2016. I dont think they will return unless Johnson miraculously achieves a good Brexit deal. Pre 2010 it was always the case that the Lib Dem vote was nearly as much ABL as ABT, which is why Labour did not win as many marginals where the Lib Dem vote collapsed in 2015 as they expected (plus a good part of the UKIP vote came from Labour too)
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jamie
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Jul 28, 2019 9:22:56 GMT
Post by jamie on Jul 28, 2019 9:22:56 GMT
The interesting thing is that there was 52% support for firmly Brexit Parties when May took over, but only 44% now. It does look as though substantial numbers of Tory Remain voters have gone Lib Dem or Green since 2016. I dont think they will return unless Johnson miraculously achieves a good Brexit deal. Pre 2010 it was always the case that the Lib Dem vote was nearly as much ABL as ABT, which is why Labour did not win as many marginals where the Lib Dem vote collapsed in 2015 as they expected (plus a good part of the UKIP vote came from Labour too) The Lib Dem vote has surged on the back of mainly 2017 Labour voters switching. However, Boris going for a hard Brexit will definitely reduce that imbalance a bit. It was also in part the fact that most Lib Dem seats were Tory facing so a slump in the Lib Dem vote would gift them the seat even if the Labour vote increased more than the Tory vote. Since their vote is now much more ideological rather than NOTA, and said ideology has much more appeal in Labour seats, this should be not as much the case.
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edgbaston
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Jul 28, 2019 11:55:31 GMT
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jamie likes this
Post by edgbaston on Jul 28, 2019 11:55:31 GMT
Maybe it will be as historic as the 17’ GE polls that showed the Tories ahead
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 28, 2019 12:01:17 GMT
Maybe it will be as historic as the 17’ GE polls that showed the Tories ahead Ein Gwlad top the poll?
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andrewp
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Jul 28, 2019 12:03:16 GMT
Post by andrewp on Jul 28, 2019 12:03:16 GMT
Maybe it will be as historic as the 17’ GE polls that showed the Tories ahead Don’t think he is one for expectations management!
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msc
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Jul 28, 2019 12:20:35 GMT
Post by msc on Jul 28, 2019 12:20:35 GMT
A Plaid lead is the only Wales wide poll that would actually make me get even close to a "gosh" or "blimey".
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jul 28, 2019 12:24:21 GMT
A Plaid lead is the only Wales wide poll that would actually make me get even close to a "gosh" or "blimey". A Lib Dem lead?😀
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Vibe
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Jul 28, 2019 12:29:14 GMT
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Post by Vibe on Jul 28, 2019 12:29:14 GMT
Doesn't sound good for Corbyn. Likely another Boris bounce, which I would take with a big pinch of salt.
I will start to take polls seriously after Halloween.
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YouGov
Jul 28, 2019 12:37:12 GMT
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 28, 2019 12:37:12 GMT
Could be a perfect 5-way split
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Vibe
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Jul 28, 2019 12:42:35 GMT
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Post by Vibe on Jul 28, 2019 12:42:35 GMT
Could be a perfect 5-way split 6 way maybe, org CHUK edging it!!!
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jamie
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Jul 28, 2019 13:40:24 GMT
Post by jamie on Jul 28, 2019 13:40:24 GMT
I’m not really sure Plaid leading would really be ‘gosh’, ‘blimey’ or ‘most dramatic poll’ considering they clearly have a lot of potential with Labour voters as evidenced by Assembly results so if Labour are tanking nationally then they would be a clear destination for those votes to go. Can’t see Brexit Party leading as they are on the way down while the Tories led in May 2017 and we all know how that ended. Lib Dem’s leading would be the only completely shock result imo, especially considering the seat implications 😁
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Sibboleth
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'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 28, 2019 13:42:08 GMT
It would be useful if someone other than this clickbaity outfit actually did Welsh polls on a semi-regular basis. Don’t think he is one for expectations management! Given that he does this every few months it seems, this is actually understating things...
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 28, 2019 15:26:30 GMT
Maybe it will be as historic as the 17’ GE polls that showed the Tories ahead Don’t think he is one for expectations management! It's a different sort of expectations management. We now will all have to know what the poll says, even though we may be pretty sure when we see it it will be a lot less exciting than the build up. Nobody has suggested here a Boris Bounce putting the Tories well in front? Well,it could be....
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Post by greenhert on Jul 28, 2019 15:34:57 GMT
Could be a perfect 5-way split 6 way maybe, org CHUK edging it!!! Change UK is a busted flush, to the point where its poll ratings are not even showing up in voter intention polls anymore.
It has nothing to offer that other pro-Remain parties cannot and it is filled with centrist careerists. It will sink without trace.
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Vibe
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Jul 28, 2019 17:14:25 GMT
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Post by Vibe on Jul 28, 2019 17:14:25 GMT
6 way maybe, org CHUK edging it!!! Change UK is a busted flush, to the point where its poll ratings are not even showing up in voter intention polls anymore.
It has nothing to offer that other pro-Remain parties cannot and it is filled with centrist careerists. It will sink without trace.
Great prediction; after the event!!!!
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YouGov
Jul 29, 2019 18:18:29 GMT
Post by Andrew_S on Jul 29, 2019 18:18:29 GMT
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YouGov
Jul 30, 2019 13:42:15 GMT
Post by tonygreaves on Jul 30, 2019 13:42:15 GMT
Change UK is a busted flush, to the point where its poll ratings are not even showing up in voter intention polls anymore.
It has nothing to offer that other pro-Remain parties cannot and it is filled with centrist careerists. It will sink without trace.
Great prediction; after the event!!!! Hardly careerists - they have just dumped their careers. Nowhere to go and can't go back. The split-off Independents could at least join us. Though I am not, in all cases, hoping for that to happen.
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Post by tonygreaves on Jul 30, 2019 13:45:19 GMT
I am just reading the Crewe/King tome on the SDP which I found on my shelves and which I never, back in the day, read more than a few sections about the things I was most interested in at the time. the earlier chapters on the Labour Party and the processes of splitting off and setting up are fascinating and amongst other things confirm how different it was to the amateurish creation of the ChUK. As for the Labour Party stuff, fascinating to see the comparisons with today and some of the real differences.
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