Deleted
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YouGov
Jul 24, 2019 11:36:49 GMT
Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2019 11:36:49 GMT
On a uniform swing, what would that give in terms of seats? I guess it might be difficult to calculate with the Brexit party starting from zero. Bit of a waste of time at this stage - in an October election (probably the earliest realistic time slot for one) too many variables will come into play which are currently unquantifiable.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 24, 2019 11:42:34 GMT
On a uniform swing, what would that give in terms of seats? I guess it might be difficult to calculate with the Brexit party starting from zero. Martin Baxter's ElectoralCalculus site gives these figures: Con 258 Lab 188 LD 96 BRX 46 Green 1 SNP 40
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,210
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YouGov
Jul 24, 2019 11:56:24 GMT
Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 24, 2019 11:56:24 GMT
Also, let's not forget, *after* Swinson win in LD leadership race.
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YouGov
Jul 24, 2019 12:54:34 GMT
Post by justin124 on Jul 24, 2019 12:54:34 GMT
The crossbreaks on the Yougov poll surprise a bit - given the headline figures - in that Labour appears to have a clear lead in London for the first time since the EU election.
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YouGov
Jul 24, 2019 13:14:43 GMT
Post by woollyliberal on Jul 24, 2019 13:14:43 GMT
What do we think? BoJo is repelling as many centrists as he's attracting right wingers back from TBP? Labour and Green just reverting to the mean? Or is something else going on? Are, in fact, some Brexiters returning to Labour but more moderates are leaving for the Lib Dems?
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Vibe
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YouGov
Jul 24, 2019 14:28:55 GMT
via mobile
Post by Vibe on Jul 24, 2019 14:28:55 GMT
Also, let's not forget, *after* Swinson win in LD leadership race. Good point. I must have missed her win. All the talk is about Boris! He was even mentioned in a support meeting I was in where politics is not allowed. It does not surprise me the Tory vote is static as expected they will gain a bit from BP and lose a bit to the LD's. Faced with the main 2 leaders and being a Brexiteer, I would now consider voting LD and I have heard other Brexiteers say the same. I know nothing about Swinson, but if she is good, she could easily win the most votes in a GE depending on Brexit outcomes. If we get Brexit(or it gets cancelled) Swindon needs to rule out another referendum in the next parliament and see how things pan out.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 24, 2019 14:30:30 GMT
Also, let's not forget, *after* Swinson win in LD leadership race. Good point. I must have missed her win. All the talk is about Boris! He was even mentioned in a support meeting I was in where politics is not allowed. It does not surprise me the Tory vote is static as expected they will gain a bit from BP and lose a bit to the LD's. Faced with the main 2 leaders and being a Brexiteer, I would now consider voting LD and I have heard other Brexiteers say the same. I know nothing about Swindon, but if she is good, she could easily win the most votes in a GE depending on Brexit outcomes. If we get Brexit(or it gets cancelled) Swindon needs to rule out another referendum in the next parliament and see how things pan out. Even her name..
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,210
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 24, 2019 14:31:47 GMT
Also, let's not forget, *after* Swinson win in LD leadership race. Good point. I must have missed her win. All the talk is about Boris! He was even mentioned in a support meeting I was in where politics is not allowed. It does not surprise me the Tory vote is static as expected they will gain a bit from BP and lose a bit to the LD's. Faced with the main 2 leaders and being a Brexiteer, I would now consider voting LD and I have heard other Brexiteers say the same. I know nothing about Swindon, but if she is good, she could easily win the most votes in a GE depending on Brexit outcomes. If we get Brexit(or it gets cancelled) Swindon needs to rule out another referendum in the next parliament and see how things pan out. Not even the Magic Roundabout?
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Vibe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 931
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Post by Vibe on Jul 24, 2019 14:33:16 GMT
On a uniform swing, what would that give in terms of seats? I guess it might be difficult to calculate with the Brexit party starting from zero. Martin Baxter's ElectoralCalculus site gives these figures: Con 258 Lab 188 LD 96 BRX 46 Green 1 SNP 40 Hmm... The Greens,bp and LD's combined would poll nearly 50%, yet have a lot less seats than Labour on 19%! And Labour with less than 1 in 5 votes could mean Corbyn as PM. Talk about a broken system.
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Vibe
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YouGov
Jul 24, 2019 14:36:13 GMT
via mobile
Post by Vibe on Jul 24, 2019 14:36:13 GMT
Good point. I must have missed her win. All the talk is about Boris! He was even mentioned in a support meeting I was in where politics is not allowed. It does not surprise me the Tory vote is static as expected they will gain a bit from BP and lose a bit to the LD's. Faced with the main 2 leaders and being a Brexiteer, I would now consider voting LD and I have heard other Brexiteers say the same. I know nothing about Swindon, but if she is good, she could easily win the most votes in a GE depending on Brexit outcomes. If we get Brexit(or it gets cancelled) Swindon needs to rule out another referendum in the next parliament and see how things pan out. Not even the Magic Roundabout? Bloody autocorrect.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 24, 2019 14:55:02 GMT
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YouGov
Jul 24, 2019 15:43:59 GMT
Post by froome on Jul 24, 2019 15:43:59 GMT
Good point. I must have missed her win. All the talk is about Boris! He was even mentioned in a support meeting I was in where politics is not allowed. It does not surprise me the Tory vote is static as expected they will gain a bit from BP and lose a bit to the LD's. Faced with the main 2 leaders and being a Brexiteer, I would now consider voting LD and I have heard other Brexiteers say the same. I know nothing about Swindon, but if she is good, she could easily win the most votes in a GE depending on Brexit outcomes. If we get Brexit(or it gets cancelled) Swindon needs to rule out another referendum in the next parliament and see how things pan out. Even her name.. We've already had one thread about that, which may be more than enough.
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Post by BossMan on Jul 24, 2019 16:49:43 GMT
Good point. I must have missed her win. All the talk is about Boris! He was even mentioned in a support meeting I was in where politics is not allowed. It does not surprise me the Tory vote is static as expected they will gain a bit from BP and lose a bit to the LD's. Faced with the main 2 leaders and being a Brexiteer, I would now consider voting LD and I have heard other Brexiteers say the same. I know nothing about Swindon, but if she is good, she could easily win the most votes in a GE depending on Brexit outcomes. If we get Brexit(or it gets cancelled) Swindon needs to rule out another referendum in the next parliament and see how things pan out. Even her name.. Someone referred to her as Swanson yesterday, which almost prompted me to ask that my son be left out of this.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 24, 2019 16:56:17 GMT
Maybe the reference to Swindon was caused by his senses working overtime.
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YouGov
Jul 25, 2019 10:45:14 GMT
Post by tonygreaves on Jul 25, 2019 10:45:14 GMT
Duncan used to be a Wiltshire MP.
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Deleted
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YouGov
Jul 27, 2019 20:35:18 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2019 20:35:18 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2019 22:06:48 GMT
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YouGov
Jul 27, 2019 22:07:48 GMT
Post by finsobruce on Jul 27, 2019 22:07:48 GMT
It seems so long ago, Nancy.
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YouGov
Jul 27, 2019 22:16:43 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 27, 2019 22:16:43 GMT
Nicely done PoD, and remarkable how the changes are so close to the equivalents for Johnson (for UKIP read BxP) except that he starts 10 points lower. Of course, Theresa May self-combusted on an election campaign, making the decision to major on her superiority over Corbyn ("Theresa May's Conservatives") look pretty silly. Is there any prospect that Boris Johnson might at any point drop a colossal brick? (Chin rubbing smiley)
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YouGov
Jul 27, 2019 22:29:35 GMT
Post by ccoleman on Jul 27, 2019 22:29:35 GMT
All good things must come to an end..
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