Vibe
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Post by Vibe on Jul 9, 2019 22:54:50 GMT
More voodoo polling.
"Before Brexit" assumes it will happen and the election is before it happens!
A GE will either be fought after Brexit or after Brexit has failed.
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YouGov
Jul 10, 2019 5:50:05 GMT
Post by woollyliberal on Jul 10, 2019 5:50:05 GMT
A GE will either be fought after Brexit or after Brexit has failed. Both of those scenarios are possible. So is Boris being brought down by a VoNC before Brexit. I'm told there are Tory MPs currently planning to do just that.
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Post by archaeologist on Jul 10, 2019 7:24:57 GMT
I love Q5. It's nice to have a clear winner in a poll these days!
Q5: Who do you believe is most likely to Promise anything to be Prime Minister?
Boris Johnson: 50% Jeremy Hunt: 16% Neither: 10% Don’t know: 24%
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YouGov
Jul 12, 2019 16:37:08 GMT
Post by Andrew_S on Jul 12, 2019 16:37:08 GMT
"@britainelects Following Following @britainelects More Westminster voting intention:
CON: 24% (-) BREX: 21% (-2) LAB: 20% (+2) LDEM: 19% (-1) GRN: 9% (-)
via @yougov, 09 - 10 Jul Chgs. w/ 03 Jul
5:13 PM - 12 Jul 2019"
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2019 14:52:27 GMT
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Deleted
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YouGov
Jul 17, 2019 15:06:03 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2019 15:06:03 GMT
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Deleted
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YouGov
Jul 18, 2019 8:02:34 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2019 8:02:34 GMT
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YouGov
Jul 22, 2019 13:20:19 GMT
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 22, 2019 13:20:19 GMT
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Deleted
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YouGov
Jul 22, 2019 14:01:44 GMT
Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2019 14:01:44 GMT
John McDonnell doing quite well too.
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Merseymike
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YouGov
Jul 22, 2019 14:12:24 GMT
Post by Merseymike on Jul 22, 2019 14:12:24 GMT
Is this a longitudinal study with the same participants as last time, or a different sample altogether? If its the latter, the comparison is meaningless
Also, I wonder, given the likelihood that it is a different sample, who the members surveyed voted for in the last leadership election?
Are YouGov reliant on people telling them that they are Labour party members, or is there any means of verification?
These are pretty elementary aspects of research design, which I'm not convinced YouGov do very well. Market research doesn't utilise standards which meet basic academic criteria
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YouGov
Jul 22, 2019 16:07:58 GMT
Post by bjornhattan on Jul 22, 2019 16:07:58 GMT
Laura Pidcock's numbers seem faintly ridiculous - she's been a good constituency MP from what I hear, but 31% of members think she'd be a good next leader (and only 13% don't)? A figure comparable to the current Deputy Leader? Unless Corbyn remains leader for the next decade, she'd definitely not have the required experience.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 22, 2019 18:07:01 GMT
Laura Pidcock's numbers seem faintly ridiculous - she's been a good constituency MP from what I hear, but 31% of members think she'd be a good next leader (and only 13% don't)? A figure comparable to the current Deputy Leader? Unless Corbyn remains leader for the next decade, she'd definitely not have the required experience. I think to a large extent the question is answered based upon favourable/unfavourable, rather than the exact qualifications for being leader. Pidcock is not that well known but hasn’t said anything that would offend the average Labour member. Watson by contrast has been seeking out conflict (rightly or wrongly) which makes him a much more polarising figure. I echo your comment on Pidcock as a constituency MP, she seems very active and takes the job seriously.
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jamie
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YouGov
Jul 22, 2019 18:15:05 GMT
Post by jamie on Jul 22, 2019 18:15:05 GMT
Is this a longitudinal study with the same participants as last time, or a different sample altogether? If its the latter, the comparison is meaningless Also, I wonder, given the likelihood that it is a different sample, who the members surveyed voted for in the last leadership election? Are YouGov reliant on people telling them that they are Labour party members, or is there any means of verification? These are pretty elementary aspects of research design, which I'm not convinced YouGov do very well. Market research doesn't utilise standards which meet basic academic criteria By that logic virtually all polls are pointless because the sample will change. Only 22% said they expected Corbyn would be a poor leader so somewhere around 75% of current members probably voted Corbyn. Presumably, just like most polls are reliant on people honestly saying who they voted for at the last general election. There is no evidence of widespread lying to pollsters, although there is some evidence of small false recall and similar in voting intentions eg; YouGov found Labour 2017 supporters from an earlier poll now denying they voted Labour.
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Merseymike
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YouGov
Jul 22, 2019 18:19:17 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 22, 2019 18:19:17 GMT
That's exactly why I am sceptical of this sort of self-selected internal poll.
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jamie
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YouGov
Jul 22, 2019 18:20:26 GMT
Post by jamie on Jul 22, 2019 18:20:26 GMT
On the anniversary of Blair election to leader of the Labour Party, his figures in this poll vs Brown’s are very illuminating.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 22, 2019 18:35:35 GMT
On the anniversary of Blair election to leader of the Labour Party, his figures in this poll vs Brown’s are very illuminating. I think Brown has always been perceived as having deeper roots within the party.
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jimboo2017
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Jul 23, 2019 10:28:37 GMT
Post by jimboo2017 on Jul 23, 2019 10:28:37 GMT
John McDonnell doing quite well too. McDonnell found a sensible hat somewhere
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The Bishop
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YouGov
Jul 23, 2019 10:36:54 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Jul 23, 2019 10:36:54 GMT
For the record, I got (and completed) this survey.
Though I still don't recall having a VI question from YouGov since late 2017.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 24, 2019 11:20:37 GMT
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YouGov
Jul 24, 2019 11:29:52 GMT
Post by andrewp on Jul 24, 2019 11:29:52 GMT
On a uniform swing, what would that give in terms of seats? I guess it might be difficult to calculate with the Brexit party starting from zero.
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