Deleted
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YouGov
Jul 31, 2019 6:41:15 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 31, 2019 6:41:15 GMT
Great prediction; after the event!!!! Hardly careerists - they have just dumped their careers. Nowhere to go and can't go back. The split-off Independents could at least join us. Though I am not, in all cases, hoping for that to happen. they all thought they were next Macron. It was delusion not self sacrifice that pushed them to leave. I'm sure they'll all do well in the city
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Deleted
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Jul 31, 2019 7:28:05 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 31, 2019 7:28:05 GMT
/photo/1
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Deleted
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Jul 31, 2019 7:33:31 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 31, 2019 7:33:31 GMT
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YouGov
Jul 31, 2019 9:09:49 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 31, 2019 9:09:49 GMT
All caveats about single polls apply, but if this proves to be part of a trend that is not a bad poll for Lab and a bit worrying for us IMO. The Tory lead is due to transfer from BxP which was pretty much a given and could go up or down a bit as the Boris honeymoon fades. But there is a small uptick in Lab and downtick for LDs following Johnson's election, despite no real good news for Labour in that period, which I suspect is due to voters on the left being corralled back into voting Labour as the only way to stop the Tories under FPTP. If May and Corbyn were two dead trees holding each other up, the collapse of May was bad for Corbyn but Johnson gives him a new tree to lean on. We need to bust a gut in face of media blackout to present ourselves as a real challenge to the Conservatives, especially anywhere we're a better bet to win than Lab (a shift back to Lab in unwinnable seats matters less.) Brecon and Radnor becomes more important for us in that context.
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YouGov
Jul 31, 2019 9:23:17 GMT
Post by afleitch on Jul 31, 2019 9:23:17 GMT
Yeah a win in Brecon will help. A win in Hallam in the autumn too. The Lib Dems, being as they are back to pre-coalition levels of support need the old fashioned by-election scalps to give them some momentum particularly if Labour are vulnerable. I'm wary about these particularly strong polls for the Greens; I'd like to see some second preference polling to see who they're more than likely to vote for seats where there are no Green candidates.
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YouGov
Jul 31, 2019 9:35:29 GMT
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Post by woollyliberal on Jul 31, 2019 9:35:29 GMT
Lab and LD are both staying within the MoE of 20%. The greens are unmoved too. The Boris Bounce is coming from TBP. I wonder if they'll prove only to be fair weather friends.
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YouGov
Jul 31, 2019 10:23:46 GMT
Post by polaris on Jul 31, 2019 10:23:46 GMT
Hardly careerists - they have just dumped their careers. Nowhere to go and can't go back. The split-off Independents could at least join us. Though I am not, in all cases, hoping for that to happen. they all thought they were next Macron. It was delusion not self sacrifice that pushed them to leave. I'm sure they'll all do well in the city Given that Jo Swinson says the LibDems might not necessarily contest every seat, I think they will stand as Change UK or Independents, but without LibDem opposition. The LibDems don't have a serious presence in most of those seats, except for South Cambridgeshire and Totnes. Some of them (Angela Smith, Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry) have been campaigning for the LibDems in Brecon and Radnor.
As for the usual Corbynite trope about "they'll all do well in the City", I wasn't aware that any of them had backgrounds in banking or finance. What do you think they would be doing in the City?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 31, 2019 10:39:20 GMT
I'm still seeing "LaBOuR aRe FouRTh In MoSt PollS" from some #FBPE types despite the fact even YouGov are putting us second now.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Jul 31, 2019 10:47:37 GMT
All caveats about single polls apply, but if this proves to be part of a trend that is not a bad poll for Lab and a bit worrying for us IMO. The Tory lead is due to transfer from BxP which was pretty much a given and could go up or down a bit as the Boris honeymoon fades. But there is a small uptick in Lab and downtick for LDs following Johnson's election, despite no real good news for Labour in that period, which I suspect is due to voters on the left being corralled back into voting Labour as the only way to stop the Tories under FPTP. If May and Corbyn were two dead trees holding each other up, the collapse of May was bad for Corbyn but Johnson gives him a new tree to lean on. We need to bust a gut in face of media blackout to present ourselves as a real challenge to the Conservatives, especially anywhere we're a better bet to win than Lab (a shift back to Lab in unwinnable seats matters less.) Brecon and Radnor becomes more important for us in that context. We need these defections to materialise ASASP. We are at a crucial point now, I fear the pendulum is teetering and will start to swing back unless we get a continual stream of "wins" and defections.
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Deleted
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Jul 31, 2019 12:30:13 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 31, 2019 12:30:13 GMT
On those figures the Lib Dems would take back seats like Cambridge and Winchester.
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jamie
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Jul 31, 2019 12:49:05 GMT
Post by jamie on Jul 31, 2019 12:49:05 GMT
I'm still seeing "LaBOuR aRe FouRTh In MoSt PollS" from some #FBPE types despite the fact even YouGov are putting us second now. Because why use the polling average when you can cherrypick a single YouGov poll out of many from the past few months?
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Deleted
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Jul 31, 2019 13:08:10 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 31, 2019 13:08:10 GMT
they all thought they were next Macron. It was delusion not self sacrifice that pushed them to leave. I'm sure they'll all do well in the city Given that Jo Swinson says the LibDems might not necessarily contest every seat, I think they will stand as Change UK or Independents, but without LibDem opposition. The LibDems don't have a serious presence in most of those seats, except for South Cambridgeshire and Totnes. Some of them (Angela Smith, Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry) have been campaigning for the LibDems in Brecon and Radnor.
As for the usual Corbynite trope about "they'll all do well in the City", I wasn't aware that any of them had backgrounds in banking or finance. What do you think they would be doing in the City?
I had Angela in mind. I was with one of her office staff yesterday and it looks like she'll get a job for a water company straight out of parliament.
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YouGov
Jul 31, 2019 13:09:36 GMT
Post by Strontium Dog on Jul 31, 2019 13:09:36 GMT
I'm still seeing "LaBOuR aRe FouRTh In MoSt PollS" from some #FBPE types despite the fact even YouGov are putting us second now. Maybe they're not counting the "Tories", Blairites and centrists in the Labour total...
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 31, 2019 17:12:00 GMT
Given that Jo Swinson says the LibDems might not necessarily contest every seat, I think they will stand as Change UK or Independents, but without LibDem opposition. The LibDems don't have a serious presence in most of those seats, except for South Cambridgeshire and Totnes. Some of them (Angela Smith, Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry) have been campaigning for the LibDems in Brecon and Radnor.
As for the usual Corbynite trope about "they'll all do well in the City", I wasn't aware that any of them had backgrounds in banking or finance. What do you think they would be doing in the City?
I had Angela in mind. I was with one of her office staff yesterday and it looks like she'll get a job for a water company straight out of parliament. I suspect you need to stop using "working in the City" as a) shorthand and b) a smear.
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Deleted
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Aug 1, 2019 7:01:43 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 1, 2019 7:01:43 GMT
I had Angela in mind. I was with one of her office staff yesterday and it looks like she'll get a job for a water company straight out of parliament. I suspect you need to stop using "working in the City" as a) shorthand and b) a smear. Perhaps it is a bit amigious but it wasn't meant as a smear
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YouGov
Aug 1, 2019 9:06:08 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 1, 2019 9:06:08 GMT
I suspect you need to stop using "working in the City" as a) shorthand and b) a smear. Perhaps it is a bit amigious but it wasn't meant as a smear Fair enough- but your tone made it sound like it was. Happy that it isn't!
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YouGov
Aug 1, 2019 9:13:54 GMT
Post by Merseymike on Aug 1, 2019 9:13:54 GMT
Perhaps it is a bit amigious but it wasn't meant as a smear Fair enough- but your tone made it sound like it was. Happy that it isn't! However, I do question the commitment to socialism of Labour MP's who opt for certain jobs after their time in parliament - inevitably reflecting their activities within it
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 3, 2019 15:19:37 GMT
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Aug 8, 2019 12:15:13 GMT
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 8, 2019 12:37:42 GMT
#SwinsonSurge ?? #BreconBounce ??
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