jamie
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Post by jamie on May 5, 2017 17:32:07 GMT
Somewhat confusing signals from Representative Kyrsten Sinema about whether she will run for the Arizona Senate seat held by Republican Jeff Flake. When asked, she said she was running for re-election. When the interview went out, she texted the interviewer saying that she didn't mean that she was ruling out a Senate bid. It does seem weird for her to rule out running so far in advance, but there are vaguer ways of answering than saying "I'm running for re-election".
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nitory
Conservative
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Post by nitory on May 9, 2017 19:04:21 GMT
Raúl Labrador (ID-1 st) has announced his candidacy for Governor of Idaho. He's received a lot of negative attention in the past week for claiming "nobody dies because they don't have access to health care.” Current Gov. Butch Otter isn't seeking a 4 th term and his 2014 primary opponent Russ Fulcher has declared he's standing again. I've posted this before a couple of times, but hopefully there's a repeat of this: The open ID-1 will probably stay Republican though nothing is certain as it contains the northern panhandle which used to be quite strong for the Dems. It was only narrowly won by the Democrats in 2008 against a weak incumbent and the Democrat Walt Minnick was well to the right being endorsed by the Tea Party in 2010.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 9, 2017 21:51:02 GMT
Pity, I was looking forward to a fight between a Labrador and a butch Otter.
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nitory
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Post by nitory on May 9, 2017 22:02:49 GMT
Pity, I was looking forward to a fight between a Labrador and a butch Otter. We also sadly never saw a rat defeated by a serial arsonist ox.
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Post by John Chanin on May 11, 2017 9:14:01 GMT
Boise is comparatively normal by American standards, but northern Idaho is truly truly weird.
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sol
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Post by sol on May 13, 2017 4:14:07 GMT
Northern Idaho is funny too because it used to be rather Democratic leaning, with strong unions, but has deindustrialized and been colonized by half of Orange County.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on May 13, 2017 11:23:07 GMT
Democratic leaning is a bit of a stretch, it was able to elect a Democrat in the right conditions but otherwise was vastly more Republican than the nation as a whole. In 2008 the Democrats barely won the Congressional district against a poor Republican incumbent. The Democrat went on to be the only Democrat endorsed by the Tea Party and lost in 2010 by 10%.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 15, 2017 22:51:00 GMT
Tomorrow is the GOP run off for the SC-05 special election. State House Speaker Pro Tempore Tommy Pope and former state representative Ralph Norman both polled 30% in the primary two weeks. In fairly broad terms the former is backed by the "establishment" and the chamber of commerce while the latter is playing the outsider card, has been backed by Club for Growth and endorsed by Ted Cruz. As I said two weeks ago I don't think there is actually that much difference between them. I haven't seen any polls for this but my guess is that Norman will win as he is probably better placed to pick up support form the candidates who finished 3rd and 4th in the primary.
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nitory
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Post by nitory on May 16, 2017 3:12:37 GMT
SC-5 first round result map:
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 17, 2017 9:00:56 GMT
It looks like Norman has edged it. With all votes counted he leads by 203 votes (0.6%) but that is close enough for a mandatory recount under state law.
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nitory
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Post by nitory on May 17, 2017 16:01:34 GMT
SC-5 second round map: Norman won almost all the precincts which didn't back either him or Pope in the first round. DDHQ Analysis of results. Also for watchers of House of Cards, Frank Underwood's hometown of Gaffney went for Norman.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on May 18, 2017 5:13:06 GMT
SC-5 second round map: Norman won almost all the precincts which didn't back either him or Pope in the first round. DDHQ Analysis of results. Also for watchers of House of Cards, Frank Underwood's hometown of Gaffney went for Norman. 'I've always hated Gaffney.'
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on May 22, 2017 19:18:51 GMT
The GOP are reportedly getting nervous about the MT-AL special election - lead said to be only around 2-4%
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2017 19:31:54 GMT
The GOP are reportedly getting nervous about the MT-AL special election - lead said to be only around 2-4% Its completely unpredictable. Both candidates have been scandalized. Out-of-state IT billionaire Greg Gianforte by ties to far right groups, inadvertently donating money to ISIS (sic) and supporting a creationist museum, and the Democratic candidate bluegrass singer Rob Quist by having a history of debt and financial mismanagement (according to himself due to a botched operation). One US anorak with local connections claimed Quist will win because his problems are all things that normal people can relate to, while all Gianforte's problems are weird rich guy and politician problems. We shall see. If nothing else Quist has some great ads:
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2017 19:51:28 GMT
Its a symbolic election in many ways, given Quist is backed by the Sanders wing and Gianforte is trying to copy Trump’s style. "Mr. Gianforte billed himself as a Trump acolyte who will repeal Obamacare, slash spending and open development on the state’s public lands. Mr. Quist said he would fight to protect health insurance, encourage student debt forgiveness and keep drillers off federal acres.The state runs red and Mr. Trump won here by 20 points in November. But Montanans are famously independent, a tradition strengthened during the days when a copper company ran state politics, fueling a strong labor culture and a distrust of corporations. People here have often refused political labels, split tickets and voted person over party."www.nytimes.com/2017/05/22/us/montana-special-election-trump.html?_r=0"An easy win by Republican Greg Gianforte, Quist’s primary opponent, would indicate rural America’s support for Trump, who won Montana by 20 points, remains steadfast. But if Quist is able to come close—or even win—in a race Democrats haven’t topped since 1994, it would be evidence that supporting populist candidates in the mold of Sanders might be Democrats’ best chance at regaining congressional seats in middle America." www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/05/in-montana-a-test-of-trump-country-populism/525834/
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 22, 2017 20:10:01 GMT
One significant thing here is that if the GOP can't comfortably win this race the chances of them taking down Jon Tester in next year's senatorial election would be pretty damn slim.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 22, 2017 21:27:12 GMT
Survey USA poll for the GA-06 special election run off
Ossoff (D): 51 Handel (R): 44
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2017 21:27:56 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2017 23:03:49 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2017 0:34:40 GMT
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