nitory
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Post by nitory on Apr 19, 2017 0:19:25 GMT
Ossoff took 71% of the early vote in DeKalb County part of the district. That is the strongest part for the Democrats in the district but is still a very good performance for him. Should be noted in DeKalb while Ossaff's share is certain to drop with the Election Day votes added there was very few early voting stations open in the county. So Dems may hold up better* than the usual front-loaded early vote which collapses when the on-the-day vote is added. *Though this is a relatively minor point as DeKalb only makes up about 20-25% of the district, Cobb and Fulton had more early voting stations open.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 19, 2017 0:25:09 GMT
Ossoff takes 57% of the early vote in Cobb County and reports indicate high turnout today in DeKalb County. Starting to look like Ossoff has a real chance of winning this tonight.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 19, 2017 0:33:59 GMT
Ossoff takes 61% of the early vote in Fulton county. So after with all the early vote in we have
Ossoff: 62 Handel: 14 Moody: 8 Gray: 7 Hill: 5
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Post by lancastrian on Apr 19, 2017 1:08:25 GMT
Ossoff is down to 57.8% with only 18 of 210 precincts counted.
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nitory
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Post by nitory on Apr 19, 2017 1:18:01 GMT
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 19, 2017 1:26:58 GMT
I'm with Nate, the numbers suggest Ossoff finishing around 48%.
Of course that is a very, very good result and gives him tremendous momentum for the run off. The money is going to continue flowing his way and if he can turn out all those voters a second time it will probably be enough. The majority of the GOP vote will clearly fall in behind Handel but but there will be a significant minority that won't.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Apr 19, 2017 3:31:47 GMT
Delays, Fulton County is unable to upload data online, it seems. Reports than they are on phone with the technical support of their electoral software provider.
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nitory
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Post by nitory on Apr 19, 2017 3:45:22 GMT
Ossoff is currently on 50.3% with all of DeKalb and Cobb counted. Still just under 100 precincts in Milton Fulton county left to count which will push Ossoff under 50%, the few areas which have already reported in Fulton have been a mix of very Republican parts in the north and more Democratic areas along the Georgia 400 highway. Karen Handel easily comes top out of the Republican candidates, 8% ahead of the next placed Republican. Reported technical difficulties are the cause of the delay in Fulton.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 19, 2017 12:54:42 GMT
Final tally
Ossoff: 48.1 Handel: 19.8 Gray: 10.8 Moody: 8.8 Hill: 8.8
Total GOP: 51.0 Total Dem: 48.9
Turnout was around 190K which is absolutely huge for a special election (KS-04 last week was around 120K, CA-34 the week before that was just 28K).
The run-off is on the 20th June and Ossoff probably starts as favourite. As I said last night if he maintain the enthusiasm of his supporters and turnout almost all of 92K voters again he will almost certainly win. Handel was hit hard by her GOP rivals and it will be difficult for her to fully rally the GOP vote for the run off.
After 3 special elections in 3 weeks we now have a short break before the primary for the SC-05 on the 2nd May.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Apr 19, 2017 14:41:17 GMT
Richard Allen To add, Ossoff/his backers couldn't attack any of the Republicans for fear of Republican voters rallying round them, as opposed to staying home. Now that only Handel is left, they can air the attack ads and help pick off some marginal/swing voters.
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Post by lancastrian on Apr 19, 2017 20:44:15 GMT
Republicans won a majority of votes. There was also a school of thought that Ossoff can only win in the first round.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 19, 2017 22:20:53 GMT
Republicans won a majority of votes. There was also a school of thought that Ossoff can only win in the first round. That is a very silly school of thought. Handel is not popular with many of those Republican voters. She may win but I certainly wouldn't put money on it. It is essentially a toss up.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 30, 2017 17:10:16 GMT
Rep Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), who is serving her 15th terms in congress has today announced she will not be seeking re-election in 2018. The 27th district (southern Miami and areas to its south) which she represents went for Clinton by 20 points. Ros-Lehtinen would have likely held it but an open seat will be a pretty likely Democratic pick up. This are not the kind of retirements that a party wants when facing a difficult election.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on May 1, 2017 9:34:37 GMT
Rep Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), who is serving her 15th terms in congress has today announced she will not be seeking re-election in 2018. The 27th district (southern Miami and areas to its south) which she represents went for Clinton by 20 points. Ros-Lehtinen would have likely held it but an open seat will be a pretty likely Democratic pick up. This are not the kind of retirements that a party wants when facing a difficult election. Agree that it's a likely Democratic pick up. Even as Rubio was winning statewide by 7%, he lost this district by 1%. This and the neighbouring 26th are essential pick ups for the Democrats if they want a house majority.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 2, 2017 16:43:36 GMT
It is primary day today for the special election in the South Carolina 5th district which has been vacant since Mick Mulvaney's confirmation as Director of the Office of Management and Budget. The district, which covers the central northern part of the state, has a solid GOP lean and is largely rural/small towns but also includes rapidly growing suburbs around Charlotte.
7 Republicans and 3 Democrats are seeking their party's nomination and if no candidates gets 50%+1 there will be a run off on 16th May. On the Democratic side Archie Parnell, a tax attorney and former congressional staffer, is the only serious candidate. He probably should avoid the need for a run off and if he fails to do so it would be a blow to his fairly slim chances in the general election. For the GOP there are 3, maybe 4, candidates with a serious shot of making the run off. State representative Tommy Pope, former state representative Ralph Norman and former state party Chairman Chad Connelly have all been spoken of as front runners. Connelly is getting quite a bit of backing from the right but in reality there probably isn't that much difference between the three. Tom Mulkin, an attorney and "anti-Green" campaigner has attracted some attention and money but whether that translates into many votes is a different matter, my guess would be not but in GOP primaries you never know.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on May 2, 2017 17:52:31 GMT
A jungle primary primary.
My experience is that the voters around Charlotte are more Republican leaning than their rural cousins, who seem to largely vote Democrat (admittedly of the very old school, Reagan, type).
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 2, 2017 18:19:34 GMT
My experience is that the voters around Charlotte are more Republican leaning than their rural cousins, who seem to largely vote Democrat (admittedly of the very old school, Reagan, type). Absolutely. York County (Charlotte Suburbs) is a GOP stronghold where as the rural counties still tend to vote Democrat for state and local offices but very much socially conservative Democrats of the type who are an endangered species on the national stage. Aside from the black majority 6th district this was also the last district in South Carolina to send a Democrat to congress. 14 term representative and budget committee chairman John Spratt held out until the wave of 2010.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 3, 2017 1:57:40 GMT
With 85% reporting Ralph Norman (32%) and Tommy Pope (31%) have comfortably proceeded to the GOP run off with Mulkin (17%) and Connelly (15%) trailing well behind. For the Democrats Parnell has easily avoided the need for run off and currently has 72% of the vote.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on May 3, 2017 15:02:54 GMT
Democrats landed a top rate recruit yesterday when Gwen Graham announced her candidacy for the governor of Florida. She is daughter of former Senator and Governor Bob Graham. She previously served 1 term as Representative for the 2nd district of Florida which went 6 points for Romney and is based in the Panhandle. She unseated an incumbent Republican in the GOP wave of 2014 which suggests she has a good personal vote. She was one of the most conservative members of the House Democratic Caucus (which isn't saying much) including support for the Keystone Pipeline and opposition to Nancy Pelosi. However, in her campaign announcement she tacked left on the minimum wage, oil drilling, fracking, education etc. She will face a few credible challengers including the mayor of Tallahassee (which was part of her district) but it's difficult to see her losing the primary due to her statewide surname recognition alone.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2017 11:24:13 GMT
Democrats landed a top rate recruit yesterday when Gwen Graham announced her candidacy for the governor of Florida. She is daughter of former Senator and Governor Bob Graham. She previously served 1 term as Representative for the 2nd district of Florida which went 6 points for Romney and is based in the Panhandle. She unseated an incumbent Republican in the GOP wave of 2014 which suggests she has a good personal vote. She was one of the most conservative members of the House Democratic Caucus (which isn't saying much) including support for the Keystone Pipeline and opposition to Nancy Pelosi. However, in her campaign announcement she tacked left on the minimum wage, oil drilling, fracking, education etc. She will face a few credible challengers including the mayor of Tallahassee (which was part of her district) but it's difficult to see her losing the primary due to her statewide surname recognition alone. She has also supported GOP attempts to weaken Wall Street regulation, which is a bigger deal for the left. Two serious challengers have announced: Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (who is considered a rising, but is black, which isn't an advantage with Florida Hispanics, who will be a large part of the primary electorate) and businessman Chris King. Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine and wealthy trial lawyer John Morgan are also considering. Florida is a very expensive state to campaign in and Morgan and King's ability to self-fund will be a factor. The Florida Democrats are famous for their poor organization and incompetence, so even if Graham is the establishment favorite they may not be able to get her elected.
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