maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 7, 2019 2:35:27 GMT
Not mentioned but the Republicans did make gains in the New Jersey Legislature, though a pretty naff consolation prize as they obviously didn't come anywhere near enough to threaten control. They picked up both Assembly seats in both the 1st and 2nd districts (two swing districts in Southern New Jersey) and a picked up a senate seat in a special election in the 1st district. This leaves the general assembly 50-30 in the Democrats favour and the Senate 25-14 with 1 vacancy in a GOP leaning seat. The only split districts are the 8th with two GOP assembly members and a Democrat Senator (elected as GOP but later defected) and the 16th with two Democrat Assembly members and a GOP senator. With some provisionnal votes counted, Democrats are now leading in the 2nd. newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/democrats-cling-to-small-lead-in-2nd-district-assembly-race/
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 11, 2019 12:00:47 GMT
Peter King has announced he's standing down at the 2020 election in New York's 2nd Congressional District on Long Island.
Well known figure and used to be all over the British tabloids as being a very IRA friendly congressman.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 11, 2019 12:17:34 GMT
Peter King has announced he's standing down at the 2020 election in New York's 2nd Congressional District on Long Island. Well known figure and used to be all over the British tabloids as being a very IRA friendly congressman. Which wasn't so usual for a member of the US Republican Party (sort of ironically, when you think about it). I think he has just got to an age where he has had enough. I would see the seat as open for the Democrats now as the Suffolk and Nassau counties show Republicans uneasy with Trump willing to switch. The is only a small part of Nassau county in this seat.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 14, 2019 15:12:42 GMT
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 14, 2019 15:39:39 GMT
Apparently they did a recanvass four years ago in the Bevin/Jack Conway election and it didn’t shift a single vote.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 14, 2019 16:40:04 GMT
Apparently they did a recanvass four years ago in the Bevin/Jack Conway election and it didn’t shift a single vote. Sometimes it seems as if the purpose of recounts in most of the USA is to gift Florida some of the embarrassment it deserves.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 14, 2019 16:44:11 GMT
Apparently they did a recanvass four years ago in the Bevin/Jack Conway election and it didn’t shift a single vote. Sometimes it seems as if the purpose of recounts in most of the USA is to gift Florida some of the embarrassment it deserves. This isn’t a recount, it’s a hurdle you have to clear in order to ask for a recount; basically each County just checks that the number of votes per candidate reported to the State Elections Board is the same as they recorded locally. I suppose it’s one of those hangovers from transmitting by phone or telegram where there’s more chance of an error in transcription. EDIT: Following the recanvass Bevin has now conceded the race to Beshear. Next up, to complete the 2019 cycle, is the Louisiana run-off on Saturday. Trump stumped for Republican Eddie Rispone last night, just as a local poll showed him beating John Bel Edwards 50-48 (presumably the other 2% were undecided/refused to answer).
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 16, 2019 19:43:16 GMT
All the polling suggest that Louisiana is very close. By all accounts the early vote numbers looked good for Edwards with there seemingly being a huge surge among black voters last Sunday (Souls to Polls). I wouldn't want to call this but if forced to at gun point I would say that Edwards will just about survive.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 17, 2019 2:29:11 GMT
Most parishes have reported their early votes and Edwards has done better in most of them than 5 weeks ago. We don't know yet if this is at the expense of election day votes and we don't yet have the early votes from Orleans.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 17, 2019 3:04:56 GMT
36% precints reporting and 61/64 parishes reporting early vote
Rispone: 52% Edwards: 48%
Still no early vote from Orleans, and very little election day vote either. Edwards looking in pretty good shape in my view, especially as Rispone is not doing as well in LA-05 (Ralph Abraham's seat) as might have been expected.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 17, 2019 3:10:09 GMT
Orleans early vote now in and it has given Edward a small lead. In both Orleans and East Baton Rouge he got around 14 thousand more early votes than 5 weeks ago.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 17, 2019 3:34:41 GMT
81% reporting and Rispone leads by around 11K but with lots of votes still to come from East Baton Rouge and Orleans this increasingly looks like Edwards is going to win.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 17, 2019 3:47:04 GMT
90% in and Edwards now leads by 11K. Around two thirds of the remaining vote is East Baton Rouge and Orleans. Edwards has his second term.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 17, 2019 3:58:04 GMT
90% in and Edwards now leads by 11K. Around two thirds of the remaining vote is East Baton Rouge and Orleans. Edwards has his second term. In a sign that Democrats may have solved their turnout problem, Edwards already has more raw votes than in his defeat of David Vitter four years ago, and more than Bobby Jindal received in either of his victories.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 17, 2019 4:19:57 GMT
Even more good news for the Gov Edwards. The GOP have failed to win a veto proof majority in the state House of Representatives. They needed to win all 7 partisan run offs but looked favoured in all of them. However the 62nd district was held by an Independent (first elected this march in a low turnout special election) and stunningly the Democrats have flipped the 105th, a suburban district near New Orleans that gave the two GOP candidates 61% of the vote just 5 weeks ago.
That leaves the composition of the House
Rep: 68 Dem: 35 Ind: 2
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 17, 2019 12:38:34 GMT
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Post by London Lad on Nov 17, 2019 14:30:18 GMT
Not sure that the re-election of Edwards is proof of anything given that he is on the extreme right of the Democratic Party anyway (being against abortion and in favour of 2nd Amendment) - many would ask why he is in the Dems anyway.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 17, 2019 15:24:44 GMT
Not sure that the re-election of Edwards is proof of anything given that he is on the extreme right of the Democratic Party anyway (being against abortion and in favour of 2nd Amendment) - many would ask why he is in the Dems anyway. He’s a traditional Southern Democrat, as he said in the acceptance speech above he believes in social justice - he’s expanded Medicare under the Affordable Care Act, increased funding for public schools, raised the minimum wage (and in his speech pledged a further increase and moves towards closing the gender pay gap), also, whilst personally being pro-life he’s blocked attempts to go after abortion providers in the State. What the wider, encouraging message for Democrats is the high turnout, which was matched in Kentucky and Virginia, meaning the usual enthusiasm gap shows no sign of abatement, and, as evidenced by the flip of a State House seat in the NO suburbs, those areas show no sign of returning to the GOP, which, whilst not necessarily significant in Louisiana, could be essential in winning back Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, etc next year.
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Post by London Lad on Nov 17, 2019 18:49:24 GMT
I'm not sure that the high turnout will be much of an encouragement for the democrats. When you compare the results with the 2105 election Edwards did increase his support but the Republicans increased their support vastly more - to the extent that he only managed to cling onto the seat with a much smaller majority.
This doesn't seem to show that there is much antipathy to the Republicans because of Trump - in fact if a right-wing Democrat can only just hold on how will the Dems do when Sanders or Warren are the candidate?
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 17, 2019 19:22:41 GMT
I'm not sure that the high turnout will be much of an encouragement for the democrats. When you compare the results with the 2105 election Edwards did increase his support but the Republicans increased their support vastly more - to the extent that he only managed to cling onto the seat with a much smaller majority. This doesn't seem to show that there is much antipathy to the Republicans because of Trump - in fact if a right-wing Democrat can only just hold on how will the Dems do when Sanders or Warren are the candidate? You’re missing the point: Democrats traditionally suffer a huge drop-off in turnout in off-year and run-off elections; since 2016 that hasn’t happened, and Louisiana simply illustrated that the anti-Trump vote is as motivated as its ever been. If you want to compare Louisiana, four years ago is probably a false comparison, Vitter was a flawed candidate who found his role in the Washington prostitution scandal suddenly rear its head again and kept Republicans at home. Taking the wider picture, Republican turnout is only 1-2% below 2016 levels, but Democratic turnout is higher than 2016, which combined is more than enough to flip Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and possibly North Carolina, thereby depriving Trump of his electoral college majority. In context Edwards last night not only beat his own raw vote total from 2015, but also Bobby Jindal in 2011 and 2007. Nobody’s suggesting that any Democrat is going to win Kentucky or Louisiana in the presidential election (and talk that Mitch McConnell will lose Kentucky’s Senate seat is just silly), but that increased turnout in battleground States would not be good news for Trump.
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