CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 17, 2019 22:25:11 GMT
I feel the need to reiterate that left or right-wing is an economic issue, not a social one. By any measure, John Bel Edwards is an economic left-wing Democrat, so for London Lad to suggest he does not belong in the Democratic Party is ludicrous. I dusagree with Gov Edwards on some issues, not least gun-ownership, but I find much of the Democratic Party to the right of him.
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Post by London Lad on Nov 17, 2019 22:59:56 GMT
Support for Gun Ownership and Abortion is about as welcome in the current Democratic Party as Bob Byrd in his KKK days.
Given that Trumps support for the contender enthused the Republican base to get out and vote in much larger numbers than the Democrats I think some around here are showing the same over confidence in the result in 2020 as we saw in 2016.
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 17, 2019 23:12:50 GMT
Support for Gun Ownership and Abortion is about as welcome in the current Democratic Party as Bob Byrd in his KKK days.Given that Trumps support for the contender enthused the Republican base to get out and vote in much larger numbers than the Democrats I think some around here are showing the same over confidence in the result in 2020 as we saw in 2016. Not strictly true. By Democratic standards Bernie is quite pro gun.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 17, 2019 23:35:10 GMT
Given that Trumps support for the contender enthused the Republican base to get out and vote in much larger numbers than the Democrats I think some around here are showing the same over confidence in the result in 2020 as we saw in 2016. I make no extrapolation about 2020 based on this result, it was largely a personal victory for John Bel Edwards as shown by in the run off for Secretary of State where the GOP candidate won by 18 points. Edwards is not merely a good fit for the state but he is also a terrific campaigner who knows how to fight dirty while still appearing to take the moral high ground. However, the part of your post that I have highlighted is an absurd interpretation of this result. The three parishes with the biggest increase in turnout were Orleans, East Baton Rouge and Caddo (Shreveport). GOP turnout was very good, Democratic turnout was better.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 18, 2019 0:07:19 GMT
Support for Gun Ownership and Abortion is about as welcome in the current Democratic Party as Bob Byrd in his KKK days.Given that Trumps support for the contender enthused the Republican base to get out and vote in much larger numbers than the Democrats I think some around here are showing the same over confidence in the result in 2020 as we saw in 2016. Not strictly true. By Democratic standards Bernie is quite pro gun. Indeed; until wider political calculations took hold he proudly boasted his A rating from the NRA in every campaign he ran in in Vermont.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 18, 2019 1:30:04 GMT
Support for Gun Ownership and Abortion is about as welcome in the current Democratic Party as Bob Byrd in his KKK days. Given that Trumps support for the contender enthused the Republican base to get out and vote in much larger numbers than the Democrats I think some around here are showing the same over confidence in the result in 2020 as we saw in 2016. I made no comment on 2020, I was commenting on what is economically left-wing. As for gun-ownership, you really need to do some research - the majority of Democrats in elective positions in the USA are in favour of gun-ownership, the argument is over restrictions. A serious lack of knowledge of US politics on display these days.
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 18, 2019 9:07:19 GMT
Given that Trumps support for the contender enthused the Republican base to get out and vote in much larger numbers than the Democrats I think some around here are showing the same over confidence in the result in 2020 as we saw in 2016. I make no extrapolation about 2020 based on this result, it was largely a personal victory for John Bel Edwards as shown by in the run off for Secretary of State where the GOP candidate won by 18 points. Edwards is not merely a good fit for the state but he is also a terrific campaigner who knows how to fight dirty while still appearing to take the moral high ground. However, the part of your post that I have highlighted is an absurd interpretation of this result. The three parishes with the biggest increase in turnout were Orleans, East Baton Rouge and Caddo (Shreveport). GOP turnout was very good, Democratic turnout was better. Sounds like the black vote came out in numbers, then.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 19, 2019 0:04:57 GMT
Support for Gun Ownership and Abortion is about as welcome in the current Democratic Party as Bob Byrd in his KKK days.Given that Trumps support for the contender enthused the Republican base to get out and vote in much larger numbers than the Democrats I think some around here are showing the same over confidence in the result in 2020 as we saw in 2016. Not strictly true. By Democratic standards Bernie is quite pro gun. Stupid question probably, but if the Republican base were enthused “to get out and vote in much larger numbers than the Democrats” how did they lose, surely more Democrats than Republicans must have voted?
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 19, 2019 8:23:52 GMT
Not strictly true. By Democratic standards Bernie is quite pro gun. Stupid question probably, but if the Republican base were enthused “to get out and vote in much larger numbers than the Democrats” how did they lose, surely more Democrats than Republicans must have voted? I suppose you could argue that the Independents swung it, or that many registered Republicans voted for Edwards. I think it was just a clumsy statement.
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 19, 2019 9:43:31 GMT
Not strictly true. By Democratic standards Bernie is quite pro gun. Stupid question probably, but if the Republican base were enthused “to get out and vote in much larger numbers than the Democrats” how did they lose, surely more Democrats than Republicans must have voted? I think you've added this to the wrong post Tim!
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 19, 2019 9:47:16 GMT
Stupid question probably, but if the Republican base were enthused “to get out and vote in much larger numbers than the Democrats” how did they lose, surely more Democrats than Republicans must have voted? I think you've added this to the wrong post Tim! When looking at it on the browser version, indeed yes, but looking on the Tapatalk App version, it’s got London Lad’s post that I intended to quote 🤔
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 19, 2019 9:48:37 GMT
Support for Gun Ownership and Abortion is about as welcome in the current Democratic Party as Bob Byrd in his KKK days. Given that Trumps support for the contender enthused the Republican base to get out and vote in much larger numbers than the Democrats I think some around here are showing the same over confidence in the result in 2020 as we saw in 2016. Stupid question probably, but if the Republican base were enthused “to get out and vote in much larger numbers than the Democrats” how did they lose, surely more Democrats than Republicans must have voted?
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 19, 2019 9:52:05 GMT
I think you've added this to the wrong post Tim! When looking at it on the browser version, indeed yes, but looking on the Tapatalk App version, it’s got London Lad’s post that I intended to quote 🤔 The Russians are coming! The Russians are Coming!
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 19, 2019 9:58:39 GMT
I love that idea that registered Republicans were more enthused to go out and vote than the Democrats, but a lot of them then voted Democrat! Makes a lot of sense.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 19, 2019 10:03:53 GMT
Stupid question probably, but if the Republican base were enthused “to get out and vote in much larger numbers than the Democrats” how did they lose, surely more Democrats than Republicans must have voted? I suppose you could argue that the Independents swung it, or that many registered Republicans voted for Edwards. I think it was just a clumsy statement. Clumsy statement maybe, although given the context of LL’s pro-Trump messaging I’m not sure; it would be self defeating his argument if a large number of Republicans defied Trump and voted Edwards. Republicans voting for Edwards was more likely four years ago when Vitter failed to persuade social conservatives to forget his part in the Washington Madame scandal. There are Republicans voting for Edwards, but they’re my point exactly, they’re the largely white, educated, female voters in the suburbs, who followed the national trends and voted Democratic, something that Trump can cope with in States like Louisiana and Kentucky, but not Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, etc., which can swing the electoral college. I don’t think noting the continuance of that phenomena, and the higher than usual Democratic turnout, a year from the presidential election is repeating the complacency of 2016.
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Post by thirdchill on Nov 19, 2019 10:04:52 GMT
I love that idea that registered Republicans were more enthused to go out and vote than the Democrats, but a lot of them then voted Democrat! Makes a lot of sense. Gubernatorial cross party switching is less unusual these days than at presidential, senate or house elections. You can register your approval easily as it does not directly affect what happens nationally. That is how Charlie Baker won so overwhelmingly in Massachusetts.
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 19, 2019 10:13:32 GMT
The American system makes it seem odder than,say, in the UK - we know here lots of party members vote for another party on occasion, and I suspect 2019 may break all records for that, but they are not registered to their own party in the American sense, which makes it seem stranger somehow.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 19, 2019 12:55:50 GMT
I suppose you could argue that the Independents swung it, or that many registered Republicans voted for Edwards. I think it was just a clumsy statement. Clumsy statement maybe, although given the context of LL’s pro-Trump messaging I’m not sure; it would be self defeating his argument if a large number of Republicans defied Trump and voted Edwards. Republicans voting for Edwards was more likely four years ago when Vitter failed to persuade social conservatives to forget his part in the Washington Madame scandal. There are Republicans voting for Edwards, but they’re my point exactly, they’re the largely white, educated, female voters in the suburbs, who followed the national trends and voted Democratic, something that Trump can cope with in States like Louisiana and Kentucky, but not Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, etc., which can swing the electoral college. I don’t think noting the continuance of that phenomena, and the higher than usual Democratic turnout, a year from the presidential election is repeating the complacency of 2016. I totally agree with you.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Nov 21, 2019 20:06:50 GMT
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 2, 2019 20:30:51 GMT
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