neilm
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Post by neilm on Nov 5, 2019 10:58:10 GMT
Now I don't consider either of this firms to be good pollsters Don't you say this about every polling firm in every US election?
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Nov 5, 2019 23:30:35 GMT
Now I don't consider either of this firms to be good pollsters Don't you VoteUK say this about every polling firm in every US election? FTFY
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 6, 2019 0:19:30 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 6, 2019 0:35:05 GMT
Dave Wasserman has created benchmarks for each county in Kentucky for what each candidate needs, and Beshear (D) is outperforming most of them. As with most US states there's a slight bias to the smaller rural precincts in the early results.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 6, 2019 0:45:38 GMT
Now I don't consider either of this firms to be good pollsters Don't you say this about every polling firm in every US election? No, I don't. There are a relatively small number of decent polling companies who apply proper polling standards and who are genuinely involved in trying to measure public opinion. The trouble is many alleged "polling companies" are closely aligned with one of the political parties and are simply trying to influence the narrative. Several others, including some university pollsters, are simply incompetent.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 6, 2019 0:59:37 GMT
Early numbers in Kentucky very good for Beshear, Bevin up by a few points but based on areas reporting he should be up more.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 6, 2019 1:17:21 GMT
Beshear's won it. Good Lord.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 6, 2019 1:17:37 GMT
With 62% reporting Beshear has pulled level and the remaining vote will almost certainly favour him. If he hasn't won this I will be astonished.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 6, 2019 1:33:40 GMT
It also looks like the Democrats have gained both the House and Senate in Virginia.
The GOP will probably retain the governorship of Mississippi but it has been a terrible night for them.
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Nov 6, 2019 2:06:18 GMT
Early numbers in Kentucky very good for Beshear, Bevin up by a few points but based on areas reporting he should be up more. Beshear is up by 10565 votes with 2 counties and a few bits left.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 6, 2019 2:23:28 GMT
It also looks like the Democrats have gained both the House and Senate in Virginia. The GOP will probably retain the governorship of Mississippi but it has been a terrible night for them. Why? In KY 1 OpinionPoll had a tossup, but 3 the D-candidate ahead of an unpopular incumbent by 10% - so the OutCome was rather good for the GOP! And VA is Democratic these days.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 6, 2019 2:48:40 GMT
It also looks like the Democrats have gained both the House and Senate in Virginia. The GOP will probably retain the governorship of Mississippi but it has been a terrible night for them. Why? In KY 1 OpinionPoll had a tossup, but 3 the D-candidate ahead of an unpopular incumbent by 10% - so the OutCome was rather good for the GOP! And VA is Democratic these days. Don’t trust Kentucky opinion polling; four years ago Jack Conway barely trailed Matt Bevin and lost reasonably comfortably. The other worrisome numbers for the GOP are big swings in a number of coal country counties.
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Nov 6, 2019 2:50:38 GMT
With a couple of tiny bits left Beshear has won by just under 5300 votes.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Nov 6, 2019 3:43:28 GMT
Not hugely surprising that Beshear won. Combination of his name recognition (his father is a former governor of Kentucky) and Bevin's deep unpopularity (34% approval), was a perfect storm for the Dems.
In the other statewide races, the GOP flipped the previously Dem held secretary of state office and attorney general.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 6, 2019 4:00:37 GMT
Not hugely surprising that Beshear won. Combination of his name recognition (his father is a former governor of Kentucky) and Bevin's deep unpopularity (34% approval), was a perfect storm for the Dems. In the other statewide races, the GOP flipped the previously Dem held secretary of state office and attorney general. According to the NYT the Republican Attorney Generals campaign committee threw a ton of money at the AG race and the Dems didn’t respond. It’s also worth noting that Conway four years ago had name recognition similar to Beshear having done 12 years as AG.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 6, 2019 12:19:44 GMT
It also looks like the Democrats have gained both the House and Senate in Virginia. The GOP will probably retain the governorship of Mississippi but it has been a terrible night for them. Why? In KY 1 OpinionPoll had a tossup, but 3 the D-candidate ahead of an unpopular incumbent by 10% - so the OutCome was rather good for the GOP! And VA is Democratic these days. It was a terrible night for them because yet again (Kentucky and Virginia) they were battered in the suburbs. This is a huge problem for them long term.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 6, 2019 12:59:06 GMT
Why? In KY 1 OpinionPoll had a tossup, but 3 the D-candidate ahead of an unpopular incumbent by 10% - so the OutCome was rather good for the GOP! And VA is Democratic these days. It was a terrible night for them because yet again (Kentucky and Virginia) they were battered in the suburbs. This is a huge problem for them long term. Also, in Pennsylvania, in the Philadelphia suburbs Democrats won all five seats on Delaware County Council, a gain of three, gained a majority on Chester County Board of Supervisors and look like retaining control of Bucks County with two uncalled races. In addition, in Philadelphia itself the Republicans lost an at-large Council seat to the Working Families’ Party. An incumbent Republican District Attorney was beaten in Delaware County, whilst Democrats flipped the open Chester County DA’s office. And one snippet off the radar, Democrats unseated the Republican Mayor of Wichita, Kansas.
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Post by redvers on Nov 6, 2019 13:22:24 GMT
It also looks like the Democrats have gained both the House and Senate in Virginia. The GOP will probably retain the governorship of Mississippi but it has been a terrible night for them. Why? In KY 1 OpinionPoll had a tossup, but 3 the D-candidate ahead of an unpopular incumbent by 10% - so the OutCome was rather good for the GOP! And VA is Democratic these days. Irregardless of Matt Bevin's unpopularity, the massive Republican tilt of Kentucky should have seen him over the line. And as already noted, polling in Kentucky is pretty suspect. Let no-one be under any impression that this was not a terrible result for the GOP.
Not mentioned but the Republicans did make gains in the New Jersey Legislature, though a pretty naff consolation prize as they obviously didn't come anywhere near enough to threaten control. The GOP in Mississippi can be pleased though that, whilst Jim Hood certainly ran a competitive campaign and avoided the usual Republican blowout, Tate Reeves won the governorship comfortably.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Nov 6, 2019 22:27:20 GMT
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 7, 2019 2:09:31 GMT
Not mentioned but the Republicans did make gains in the New Jersey Legislature, though a pretty naff consolation prize as they obviously didn't come anywhere near enough to threaten control. They picked up both Assembly seats in both the 1st and 2nd districts (two swing districts in Southern New Jersey) and a picked up a senate seat in a special election in the 1st district. This leaves the general assembly 50-30 in the Democrats favour and the Senate 25-14 with 1 vacancy in a GOP leaning seat. The only split districts are the 8th with two GOP assembly members and a Democrat Senator (elected as GOP but later defected) and the 16th with two Democrat Assembly members and a GOP senator.
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