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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 2, 2019 14:47:08 GMT
The problems of nominating a candidate in their late 70s may have to be faced:
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Post by curiousliberal on Oct 2, 2019 14:59:05 GMT
The problems of nominating a candidate in their late 70s may have to be faced: Perhaps, but I'd wager that in public discourse, at least, they're overstated. Those who live into their 70s have longer life expectancy than those who, well, haven't got there. Unless the physical or mental frailty/lack of fitness is already apparent and markedly more so than in previous years, their risk of dying in office isn't all that much higher. Nixon had terrible health problems, but toughed them out just fine. Reagan delegated remarkably well for a man who probably spent the last two years of his presidency in the early years of Alzheimers. Sanders has already registered his Senate 2024 campaign and has a pretty heavy schedule to boot. The bottom line is that most of the individuals competing at this level of politics are, in one way or another, exceptional.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Oct 2, 2019 15:25:25 GMT
The problems of nominating a candidate in their late 70s may have to be faced: Perhaps, but I'd wager that in public discourse, at least, they're overstated. Those who live into their 70s have longer life expectancy than those who, well, haven't got there. Unless the physical or mental frailty/lack of fitness is already apparent and markedly more so than in previous years, their risk of dying in office isn't all that much higher. Nixon had terrible health problems, but toughed them out just fine. Reagan delegated remarkably well for a man who probably spent the last two years of his presidency in the early years of Alzheimers. Sanders has already registered his Senate 2024 campaign and has a pretty heavy schedule to boot. The bottom line is that most of the individuals competing at this level of politics are, in one way or another, exceptional. There's a pretty extensive list of major health problems that U.S. presidents have had, including the youngest ones. Of course most of them didn't live in the 24/7 media age and also medicine wasn't as advanced.
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Izzyeviel
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Post by Izzyeviel on Oct 2, 2019 15:29:57 GMT
The problems of nominating a candidate in their late 70s may have to be faced: True. But then again, the current president is a similar age and the most healthiest person in the entire world. (many people are saying this, many people.)
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 2, 2019 15:51:39 GMT
The problems of nominating a candidate in their late 70s may have to be faced: I'm hoping that they inserted stents rather than stints.....
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 4, 2019 1:42:00 GMT
The problems of nominating a candidate in their late 70s may have to be faced: Perhaps, but I'd wager that in public discourse, at least, they're overstated. Those who live into their 70s have longer life expectancy than those who, well, haven't got there. Unless the physical or mental frailty/lack of fitness is already apparent and markedly more so than in previous years, their risk of dying in office isn't all that much higher. Nixon had terrible health problems, but toughed them out just fine. Reagan delegated remarkably well for a man who probably spent the last two years of his presidency in the early years of Alzheimers. Sanders has already registered his Senate 2024 campaign and has a pretty heavy schedule to boot. The bottom line is that most of the individuals competing at this level of politics are, in one way or another, exceptional. Going back, remember the health issues that JFK had and before him FDR. Of course, things were hushed up back then!
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Post by casualobserver on Oct 7, 2019 8:53:42 GMT
Perhaps, but I'd wager that in public discourse, at least, they're overstated. Those who live into their 70s have longer life expectancy than those who, well, haven't got there. Unless the physical or mental frailty/lack of fitness is already apparent and markedly more so than in previous years, their risk of dying in office isn't all that much higher. Nixon had terrible health problems, but toughed them out just fine. Reagan delegated remarkably well for a man who probably spent the last two years of his presidency in the early years of Alzheimers. Sanders has already registered his Senate 2024 campaign and has a pretty heavy schedule to boot. The bottom line is that most of the individuals competing at this level of politics are, in one way or another, exceptional. Going back, remember the health issues that JFK had and before him FDR. Of course, things were hushed up back then! Interesting, if basic, study published several months ago and referenced last month on Radio 4's excellent "More or Less" programme: www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/healthcare/would-an-old-presidential-candidate-die-in-office-this-scientist-has-some-answersAs mentioned in the Washington Examiner report, cognitive capacity is a more likely limiting factor than death for a president.
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 7, 2019 10:20:12 GMT
Reminds me of the immortal Dorothy Parker's reaction to reports of the death of Calvin Coolidge : "How can they tell?".
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Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2019 10:27:28 GMT
Reminds me of the immortal Dorothy Parker's reaction to reports of the death of Calvin Coolidge : "How can they tell?". Something similar was said of Queen Anne's consort Prince George of Denmark. In cruelly making fun of George's asthma, Lord Mulgrave said the Prince was forced to breathe hard in case people mistook him for dead and buried him.
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Post by curiousliberal on Oct 7, 2019 10:31:18 GMT
They are limiting in very different ways IMO. Reagan had Alzheimers' in his last two years, but managed to keep enough good judgement to delegate responsibility well enough to run things pretty competently (given the ideology he pushed, that is). A knowledge of the inside of Washington, sharp political judgement, the quality of one's inner circle, etc; measuring 'presidential intelligence' is not an exact science. In general, I would caution against applying the 'cognitive decline past the age of 70' argument in the case of these sorts of elections (except in the case of, say, acute dementia), as just 'getting a test' now won't tell one about how a candidate's brain has aged without previous results to refer to. In the final days of Nixon, there was public speculation that he was 'not all there', but that was just the immense stress of the crisis (and presidency in general) causing him to act out. Why is anyone attempting to perform some kind of rudimentary and hilariously inexact neuroscience when the same sorts of oddities manifest in Trump/[insert candidate here]? I know I'm beating a dead horse to some extent, but the people at this level of politics have to have something truly exceptional that keeps them at this level, which means they will probably defy age-related trends (amongst others) to some extent in the cases of older folks. As our societies age, we should expect to see more capable older candidates who would earlier have been debarred because of shallow perceptions about them being too old despite retaining abilities their younger peers either hadn't or never possessed to begin with.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 12, 2019 10:54:03 GMT
Today is general election day (officially open primary) in Louisiana with all state based statewide offices and all seats in the state legislature up for election. For candidates to be victorious today they need 50% +1, in races where that doesn't happen there will be a run off between the top two candiadtes in five weeks time.
The most important race by far is at the top of the ballot where Gov John Bel Edwards (D) is seeking a second term. After his stunning win over Sen David Vitter four years ago Edwards has governed as the genuine moderate Democrat that he is and has had solid approval ratings throughout his term. That being said Louisiana is deep red and if a top tier opponent like Sen John Kennedy (R) had challenged him he would have been in for a very hard race. Instead he faces Rep Ralph Abraham (R) and businessman Eddie Rispone (R) meaning a competitive race but one where most observers think Edwards has the edge. There are three other candidates on the ballot (1 Dem, 1 GOP, 1 Ind) but none of them will poll all that much. Against split GOP opposition Edwards will easily top the ballot today but most polls have him falling just short of the 50% required for an outright win. As a benchmark I would say that 45% is the minimum target for Edwards, if he is below that he is in trouble ahead of the run off. As for the GOP side of the equation, Abraham comfortably led Rispone at the start but the race tightened over the summer and several recent polls have had a small lead for Rispone.
The other races don't have all that much of interest. The GOP should comfortably retain all the other statewide offices (although Secretary of State might need a run off) and will retain their majorities in the legislature. They only need one gain in the Senate to achieve a veto proof two thirds majority but they would need 9 gains in the House to achieve the same status and that isn't going to happen.
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 13, 2019 19:50:53 GMT
Edwards (D): 47% Rispone (R): 27% Abraham (R): 24% Dantzler (D): 1% Landry (R): 1% Landieu (I): 1%
Not a brilliant result for Edwards but not a disaster either. I still think he has a slight edge for the run off but it looks like being very close.
In other races GOP incumbents held the offices of Lt Gov, Attorney General, Treasurer, Agriculture Commissioner and Insurance Commissioner. There will be a run off for Secretary of State between the appointed incumbent Kyle Ardoin (R) and Gwen Collins-Greenup (D) which Ardoin will easily win. In the State Senate the GOP picked up two seats and assuming they win the run off in the 16th (the only R v D run off) they will have a 27-12 majority.
With regards to the House I erred in in my assessment of the GOP's chances of taking a veto proof majority, largely due to a mathematical cock up, and it looks possible that they might just do it. Following last nights results the composition is as follows (R v R and D v D run offs counted for the respective party)
Rep: 63 Dem: 33 Ind: 1
There will be eight partisan run offs with five R v D races, two R v I and one D v I. The GOP need to win all 7 off the run offs they are involved in for a veto proof majority but they appear favourites in all of them with only the the 62nd, where the Ind is the incumbent looking particularly close.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 13, 2019 20:06:59 GMT
Edwards (D): 47% Rispone (R): 27% Abraham (R): 24% Dantzler (D): 1% Landry (R): 1% Landieu (I): 1% Not a brilliant result for Edwards but not a disaster either. I still think he has a slight edge for the run off but it looks like being very close. In other races GOP incumbents held the offices of Lt Gov, Attorney General, Treasurer, Agriculture Commissioner and Insurance Commissioner. There will be a run off for Secretary of State between the appointed incumbent Kyle Ardoin (R) and Gwen Collins-Greenup (D) which Ardoin will easily win. In the State Senate the GOP picked up two seats and assuming they win the run off in the 16th (the only R v D run off) they will have a 27-12 majority. With regards to the House I erred in in my assessment of the GOP's chances of taking a veto proof majority, largely due to a mathematical cock up, and it looks possible that they might just do it. Following last nights results the composition is as follows (R v R and D v D run offs counted for the respective party) Rep: 63 Dem: 33 Ind: 1 There will be eight partisan run offs with five R v D races, two R v I and one D v I. The GOP need to win all 7 off the run offs they are involved in for a veto proof majority but they appear favourites in all of them with only the the 62nd, where the Ind is the incumbent looking particularly close. It has been a thought that as long as Edwards could manage 47%, it would make him the slight favourite. It is all about turnout, plus whether some Abraham supporters might be a bit narked with Rispone and not turnout.
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 13, 2019 20:21:10 GMT
Edwards (D): 47% Rispone (R): 27% Abraham (R): 24% Dantzler (D): 1% Landry (R): 1% Landieu (I): 1% Not a brilliant result for Edwards but not a disaster either. I still think he has a slight edge for the run off but it looks like being very close. In other races GOP incumbents held the offices of Lt Gov, Attorney General, Treasurer, Agriculture Commissioner and Insurance Commissioner. There will be a run off for Secretary of State between the appointed incumbent Kyle Ardoin (R) and Gwen Collins-Greenup (D) which Ardoin will easily win. In the State Senate the GOP picked up two seats and assuming they win the run off in the 16th (the only R v D run off) they will have a 27-12 majority. With regards to the House I erred in in my assessment of the GOP's chances of taking a veto proof majority, largely due to a mathematical cock up, and it looks possible that they might just do it. Following last nights results the composition is as follows (R v R and D v D run offs counted for the respective party) Rep: 63 Dem: 33 Ind: 1 There will be eight partisan run offs with five R v D races, two R v I and one D v I. The GOP need to win all 7 off the run offs they are involved in for a veto proof majority but they appear favourites in all of them with only the the 62nd, where the Ind is the incumbent looking particularly close. It has been a thought that as long as Edwards could manage 47%, it would make him the slight favourite. It is all about turnout, plus whether some Abraham supporters might be a bit narked with Rispone and not turnout. Yesterday was also somewhat unusual in that New Orleans was affected by literal collapse of the Hard Rock Hotel which may have depressed turnout in NO and the first home game of the season for the LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge, which was preceded by a parade through the City, and was so important that all three campaign parties had the TVs turned on to the game rather than local news results programmes. Bel Edwards needed to be closer to 48 than 47%, and given the traditional drop-off in Democratic turnout during run-offs I’d know reckon the race is at best a Toss-Up if not Lean Republican.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 13, 2019 20:37:04 GMT
It has been a thought that as long as Edwards could manage 47%, it would make him the slight favourite. It is all about turnout, plus whether some Abraham supporters might be a bit narked with Rispone and not turnout. Yesterday was also somewhat unusual in that New Orleans was affected by literal collapse of the Hard Rock Hotel which may have depressed turnout in NO and the first home game of the season for the LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge, which was preceded by a parade through the City, and was so important that all three campaign parties had the TVs turned on to the game rather than local news results programmes. Bel Edwards needed to be closer to 48 than 47%, and given the traditional drop-off in Democratic turnout during run-offs I’d know reckon the race is at best a Toss-Up if not Lean Republican. Tend to agree, but it is at a highly politicised time with Trump increasingly going off the rails. I am minded to think that the Democratic turnout will hold up better than usual, not least given that Rispone is pushing himself as the local Trump.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 13, 2019 20:46:09 GMT
Yesterday was also somewhat unusual in that New Orleans was affected by literal collapse of the Hard Rock Hotel which may have depressed turnout in NO and the first home game of the season for the LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge, which was preceded by a parade through the City, and was so important that all three campaign parties had the TVs turned on to the game rather than local news results programmes. Bel Edwards needed to be closer to 48 than 47%, and given the traditional drop-off in Democratic turnout during run-offs I’d know reckon the race is at best a Toss-Up if not Lean Republican. Tend to agree, but it is at a highly politicised time with Trump increasingly going off the rails. I am minded to think that the Democratic turnout will hold up better than usual, not least given that Rispone is pushing himself as the local Trump. True, but some of the downballot races, including a couple of local Sherriff races, and the vote in largely white St. George’s to effectively secede from the multiracial East Baton Rouge Parish and form their own Incorporated City, suggests the Trump brand is still holding fairly strong in the less urban areas. Rispone can also come at the run-off with a much cleaner slate than Vitter four years ago.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 13, 2019 21:10:39 GMT
Tend to agree, but it is at a highly politicised time with Trump increasingly going off the rails. I am minded to think that the Democratic turnout will hold up better than usual, not least given that Rispone is pushing himself as the local Trump. True, but some of the downballot races, including a couple of local Sherriff races, and the vote in largely white St. George’s to effectively secede from the multiracial East Baton Rouge Parish and form their own Incorporated City, suggests the Trump brand is still holding fairly strong in the less urban areas. Rispone can also come at the run-off with a much cleaner slate than Vitter four years ago. Without a doubt. Mind you, Edwards vote in the jungle primary is the highest of a Democrat in a statewide election in at least 15 years, and certainly outside of a Presidential election.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 13, 2019 23:21:58 GMT
I really don't understand the doom and gloom from some about Edwards chances in the run off. There hasn't been much proper polling of this race but pretty much every poll has shown Edwards scoring higher in the run off then in the open primary.
For example, A Mason Dixon poll less than two weeks ago had
Edwards: 45 Rispone: 22 Abraham: 17
Edwards: 51 Rispone: 42
Edwards: 53 Abraham: 38
Or a JMC poll (a GOP firm)
Edwards: 45 Rispone: 21 Abraham: 20
Edwards: 48 Rispone: 39
Edwards: 47 Abraham: 37
Now I don't consider either of this firms to be good pollsters but them showing Edwards doing better in the run off suggests to me that it is a distinct possibility.
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 13, 2019 23:52:28 GMT
I really don't understand the doom and gloom from some about Edwards chances in the run off. There hasn't been much proper polling of this race but pretty much every poll has shown Edwards scoring higher in the run off then in the open primary. For example, A Mason Dixon poll less than two weeks ago had Edwards: 45 Rispone: 22 Abraham: 17 Edwards: 51 Rispone: 42 Edwards: 53 Abraham: 38 Or a JMC poll (a GOP firm) Edwards: 45 Rispone: 21 Abraham: 20 Edwards: 48 Rispone: 39 Edwards: 47 Abraham: 37 Now I don't consider either of this firms to be good pollsters but them showing Edwards doing better in the run off suggests to me that it is a distinct possibility. Basically for me the worry is can Edwards grow his turnout; whilst he beat his 2015 figures in Orleans and Jefferson Parishes, in most southwest Parishes his vote dropped from above 40% to barely 30% and he finished third in those Parishes. In Calcasieu Parish, whilst he won it last night, four years ago he beat the combined Republican vote by 17%, last night he lost it by 12%. Rispone has a bottomless pit of money he can self fund, and whilst he had to spend most of his time attacking Abraham he can now turn all of that on to Bel Edwards. I hope I’m wrong, and the bright spot nationally is the continued Democratic strength in the suburbs (Orleans and Jefferson), but I suspect it’s going to take a monumental turnout effort to get him over 50%.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 28, 2019 23:33:29 GMT
A state court in North Carolina has struck down the the heavily gerrymandered congressional map (10-3 in the GOP's favour) and ordered the districts but redrawn in time for the 2020 election. There will presumably be an appeal to the state supreme court but if the decision stands the state legislature will have to draw a new map. The GOP have clear majorities in both chambers but not clear enough to override Gov Cooper's veto. Therefore they are going to have to make some compromises.
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