timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 11, 2019 14:53:58 GMT
Democrats appear to be underperforming on their 2018 numbers (still much better than '16) in special elections across the country, though we don't have too much data to go off as of yet. According to the North Carolina State Board of Elections, pending absentee ballots, the Democrats improved their vote share in NC02 by 1.2% on last November, and 3% on Hillary in 2016, and in NC09 were down 0.5% on last November but +6 on Hillary. One thing we’ll never know, particularly in 09, is how much impact of Hurricane Dorian had on early voting. It’s noticeable that McCready’s biggest underperformance from November was in a County most impacted. DKElections have compiled this quite useful spreadsheet of all the meaningful Special Elections since November: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dXQhlzCAw05fC7P21eCivdfLOB-F3nykPVRPzG49U9g/htmlview
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 11, 2019 16:12:38 GMT
Democrats appear to be underperforming on their 2018 numbers (still much better than '16) in special elections across the country, though we don't have too much data to go off as of yet. According to the North Carolina State Board of Elections, pending absentee ballots, the Democrats improved their vote share in NC02 by 1.2% on last November, and 3% on Hillary in 2016, and in NC09 were down 0.5% on last November but +6 on Hillary. One thing we’ll never know, particularly in 09, is how much impact of Hurricane Dorian had on early voting. It’s noticeable that McCready’s biggest underperformance from November was in a County most impacted. DKElections have compiled this quite useful spreadsheet of all the meaningful Special Elections since November: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dXQhlzCAw05fC7P21eCivdfLOB-F3nykPVRPzG49U9g/htmlviewThey were down on their vote in Pennsylvania-03, hence the overall underperformance. Interestingly enough, McCready did better than he had done in the 'burbs last time, but underperformed in almost all the rural counties relevant to his last showing. We should also acknowledge that our NC03 calculations are impaired by the presence of fraud last time - we can't estimate, as of yet, how much that depressed the real Democratic vote.
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Post by casualobserver on Sept 12, 2019 21:48:07 GMT
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 21, 2019 13:07:48 GMT
Rep Joseph Kennedy III will primary incumbent Democrat Ed Markey for the Massachusetts Senate seat.
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Izzyeviel
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Post by Izzyeviel on Sept 21, 2019 13:10:31 GMT
Rep Joseph Kennedy III will primary incumbent Democrat Ed Markey for the Massachusetts Senate seat. I heard about this the other day and found it a bit odd. Is there some internal fighting going on here or something?
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 21, 2019 13:13:06 GMT
Rep Joseph Kennedy III will primary incumbent Democrat Ed Markey for the Massachusetts Senate seat. I heard about this the other day and found it a bit odd. Is there some internal fighting going on here or something? No infighting, just an ambitious young politician who in the tradition of his family isn’t willing to “wait his turn”.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 21, 2019 13:35:41 GMT
I heard about this the other day and found it a bit odd. Is there some internal fighting going on here or something? No infighting, just an ambitious young politician who in the tradition of his family isn’t willing to “wait his turn”. I agree with Richard, and it’s worth noting Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Markey this week (he’s sponsored the Senate version of her Green New Deal legislation), and adding in Markey’s genuinely liberal, only done one term in the Senate after John Kerry’s retirement (admittedly after an eternity in the House), it’s going to be tough to see where Kennedy can find reasons why Democrats should ditch their incumbent other than age, which is potentially fraught as Markey’s younger than Biden and Sanders, and only three years older than Warren.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 21, 2019 17:33:35 GMT
Pretty amazing to think for all the focus on Democrats moving to the left, Massachusetts of all places may buck the trend. Markey is to the left of Kennedy so his loss would move the seat to the right (although Kennedy will probably pander to the left from now on). Similarly, Ayanna Presley, of the AOC ‘Squad’ fame, was if anything to the right of the dude she primaried and won because she ran on change/identity politics. This sort of dynamic also occurred in a California House Seat in 2016 where now rep Ro Khanna was a corporate funded Clinton supporter who primaried an incumbent but immediately upon election transitioned into an anti-establishment leader of the far left.
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Post by casualobserver on Sept 22, 2019 12:13:48 GMT
Not really amazing at all. In some respects, Massachusetts couldn't go further to the left, relatively speaking, so the only direction for the Dems there would be in a relative rightwards direction.
Kennedy will struggle to get even as far as a serious contest against Markey, although I was impressed by the slickness of the recent Kennedy announcement as to why he shouldn't "wait his turn".
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Post by casualobserver on Sept 22, 2019 12:16:10 GMT
No infighting, just an ambitious young politician who in the tradition of his family isn’t willing to “wait his turn”. I agree with Richard, and it’s worth noting Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Markey this week (he’s sponsored the Senate version of her Green New Deal legislation), and adding in Markey’s genuinely liberal, only done one term in the Senate after John Kerry’s retirement (admittedly after an eternity in the House), it’s going to be tough to see where Kennedy can find reasons why Democrats should ditch their incumbent other than age, which is potentially fraught as Markey’s younger than Biden and Sanders, and only three years older than Warren. Markey is a very mainstream and reasonably active and visible Left-Dem Senator and he's already garnered significant endorsements from key Massachusetts Dem figures. He's in no real danger.
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 22, 2019 14:30:45 GMT
I agree with Richard, and it’s worth noting Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Markey this week (he’s sponsored the Senate version of her Green New Deal legislation), and adding in Markey’s genuinely liberal, only done one term in the Senate after John Kerry’s retirement (admittedly after an eternity in the House), it’s going to be tough to see where Kennedy can find reasons why Democrats should ditch their incumbent other than age, which is potentially fraught as Markey’s younger than Biden and Sanders, and only three years older than Warren. Markey is a very mainstream and reasonably active and visible Left-Dem Senator and he's already garnered significant endorsements from key Massachusetts Dem figures. He's in no real danger. The constituency polls say otherwise, but I'm inclined to agree - Kennedy's early fortunes will likely follow Beto's path during the first months of the presidential primary. He might well have been better off merely allowing the speculation to float and then going for a Senate seat when Markey or Warren resigned (and there's a reasonable chance of one of those things happening before 2024).
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 22, 2019 14:51:09 GMT
Markey is a very mainstream and reasonably active and visible Left-Dem Senator and he's already garnered significant endorsements from key Massachusetts Dem figures. He's in no real danger. The constituency polls say otherwise, but I'm inclined to agree - Kennedy's early fortunes will likely follow Beto's path during the first months of the presidential primary. He might well have been better off merely allowing the speculation to float and then going for a Senate seat when Markey or Warren resigned (and there's a reasonable chance of one of those things happening before 2024). I think there’s even an open Governor’s seat in 2022 to build his statewide profile up that could be a useful launch pad for a Senate.
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Post by casualobserver on Sept 22, 2019 15:28:17 GMT
The constituency polls say otherwise, but I'm inclined to agree - Kennedy's early fortunes will likely follow Beto's path during the first months of the presidential primary. He might well have been better off merely allowing the speculation to float and then going for a Senate seat when Markey or Warren resigned (and there's a reasonable chance of one of those things happening before 2024). I think there’s even an open Governor’s seat in 2022 to build his statewide profile up that could be a useful launch pad for a Senate. There's a significant number of credible ambitious Democrats who'll seek to contest any future Senate and Gubernatorial contests, so Kennedy's at the very least laying down a marker here by opposing Markey. There's no real ideological difference between Kennedy and Markey, and Markey's been an active Senator so can't so easily be challenged as having been ineffective.
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 22, 2019 20:30:33 GMT
The constituency polls say otherwise, but I'm inclined to agree - Kennedy's early fortunes will likely follow Beto's path during the first months of the presidential primary. He might well have been better off merely allowing the speculation to float and then going for a Senate seat when Markey or Warren resigned (and there's a reasonable chance of one of those things happening before 2024). I think there’s even an open Governor’s seat in 2022 to build his statewide profile up that could be a useful launch pad for a Senate. I think not. Charlie Baker is likely to go for a third term, and his massive approval rating has almost as much to do with Democratic support as Republican backing. casualobserver Markey is the 4th most popular Democratic senator (6th if you count Angus King and Bernie Sanders). I don't think these challengers are going to be as formidable as him, and they'll have less good reason to question why Kennedy is in a race than Markey does now.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 22, 2019 20:33:46 GMT
I think there’s even an open Governor’s seat in 2022 to build his statewide profile up that could be a useful launch pad for a Senate. I think not. Charlie Baker is likely to go for a third term, and his massive approval rating has almost as much to do with Democratic support as Republican backing. I put “I think” because I wasn’t sure if Massachusetts had two term limits or not. As there isn’t, scrap that potential route for Kennedy as it you’re right it is unlikely Baker will be vulnerable.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 24, 2019 16:34:37 GMT
While I agree with everyone else that Markey starts off as favourite I do think that you all seem to be ignoring the elephant in the room. This isn't just a popular young congressman challenging a powerful incumbent Senator, this is a Kennedy and it is hard to understate just how much the Kennedy name still means in Massachusetts.
His unstated pitch is something like this 'Markey is a good guy but I am the future. I am going to run for President one day and my chances will be a hell of a lot better as a sitting Senator. You want to see another Kennedy in the White House don't you'
Don't underestimate how attractive that line of thinking will be. It might not be enough but if I were Markey I would be taking this challenge very seriously.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 24, 2019 20:24:42 GMT
While I agree with everyone else that Markey starts off as favourite I do think that you all seem to be ignoring the elephant in the room. This isn't just a popular young congressman challenging a powerful incumbent Senator, this is a Kennedy and it is hard to understate just how much the Kennedy name still means in Massachusetts. His unstated pitch is something like this 'Markey is a good guy but I am the future. I am going to run for President one day and my chances will be a hell of a lot better as a sitting Senator. You want to see another Kennedy in the White House don't you' Don't underestimate how attractive that line of thinking will be. It might not be enough but if I were Markey I would be taking this challenge very seriously. You have put well what I was thinking. Also, as a sitting congressman, he has a knowledgeable team, automatuc name recognition (as you say) and a lot of Kennedy activists ready to come out of the woodwork for him. He already has more campaign money in hand than Markey, local voters are not impressed by support from the Democratic establishment and, despite the support of A O-C, not all the youngervoters wil rush to support the old blme. Markey might be favourite, but, when the Kennedys start to line up behind him, I feel he has a real chance.
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 30, 2019 18:20:12 GMT
Chris Collins (R) has resigned from the House and will plead guilty to insider trading tomorrow. The district should be safe for Republicans if they pick a less controversial candidate.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 30, 2019 19:49:41 GMT
Chris Collins (R) has resigned from the House and will plead guilty to insider trading tomorrow. The district should be safe for Republicans if they pick a less controversial candidate. Also not running for re-election Mac Thornberry from Texas. A safe Republican District but meaning the next Congress will have no members of the 1994 Gingrich wave election.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 1, 2019 10:29:41 GMT
Chris Collins (R) has resigned from the House and will plead guilty to insider trading tomorrow. The district should be safe for Republicans if they pick a less controversial candidate. Also not running for re-election Mac Thornberry from Texas. A safe Republican District but meaning the next Congress will have no members of the 1994 Gingrich wave election. It won't have any GOP members first elected that year. There are still 4 democrats who were first elected that year. Thornberry is yet another one who is retiring because of GOP term limits on committee chairman / ranking members.
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