Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jul 11, 2019 0:01:43 GMT
Is it a particularly egregious litmus test to say that Democrats want candidates who will not vote to effectively gut Obamacare and a whole host of other priorities? Well quite. Even Joe Manchin, easily the most right wing Senate Democrat, is solid on matters like Obamacare and if you can't sell such a position in dirt poor states like Kentucky you have no business running for high office.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jul 12, 2019 10:58:36 GMT
What does 'phoning it in' mean?
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 12, 2019 14:24:57 GMT
What does 'phoning it in' mean? Giving a performance suggesting, that while you seem to be present, your focus and energy is a long, long way away
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2019 8:52:55 GMT
I think in 2020 in New Hampshire it would make more sense for Kelly Ayotte to run for Governor and Chris Sununu to run for Senate.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 15, 2019 10:19:53 GMT
I think in 2020 in New Hampshire it would make more sense for Kelly Ayotte to run for Governor and Chris Sununu to run for Senate. It might make more sense in some universe far, far away, but in the real world it has next to nothing going for it it and ain’t going to happen.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2019 15:21:42 GMT
I think in 2020 in New Hampshire it would make more sense for Kelly Ayotte to run for Governor and Chris Sununu to run for Senate. It might make more sense in some universe far, far away, but in the real world it has next to nothing going for it it and ain’t going to happen. Ayotte has already lost a Senate race whereas Sununu has not. It reminds me of Martha McSally in Arizona.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 15, 2019 15:50:52 GMT
It might make more sense in some universe far, far away, but in the real world it has next to nothing going for it it and ain’t going to happen. Ayotte has already lost a Senate race whereas Sununu has not. It reminds me of Martha McSally in Arizona. Ayotte hasn’t won a Governor’s race, Sununu hasn’t won a Senate race so they’re equally unqualified for the other job. Also the Sununu name has tended to be more resonant at a local level than Federal. Given that New Hampshire has one of the largest State legislatures in the country there’s not likely to be a shortage of candidates. Not sure what the comparison with McSally is though.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2019 17:21:06 GMT
Ayotte has already lost a Senate race whereas Sununu has not. It reminds me of Martha McSally in Arizona. Ayotte hasn’t won a Governor’s race, Sununu hasn’t won a Senate race so they’re equally unqualified for the other job. Also the Sununu name has tended to be more resonant at a local level than Federal. Given that New Hampshire has one of the largest State legislatures in the country there’s not likely to be a shortage of candidates. Not sure what the comparison with McSally is though. Do you think he'd lose if he ran for Senate? The comparison is that Ayotte and McSally have lost Senate elections.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 16, 2019 1:43:30 GMT
Ayotte hasn’t won a Governor’s race, Sununu hasn’t won a Senate race so they’re equally unqualified for the other job. Also the Sununu name has tended to be more resonant at a local level than Federal. Given that New Hampshire has one of the largest State legislatures in the country there’s not likely to be a shortage of candidates. Not sure what the comparison with McSally is though. Do you think he'd lose if he ran for Senate? The comparison is that Ayotte and McSally have lost Senate elections. Sununu in 2020? Yes, Shaheen has done little wrong, doesn’t look like she’ll be primaried, and beat a high profile candidate fairly comfortably last time out in a bad year for Democrats. I’m also totally convinced that, barring an unforeseen circumstance of the magnitude of 9/11, Trump cannot expand his 2016 map, and, despite his current traditional campaign bluster of winning more States, will on Election Day be seeking to merely defend what he’s got. However this discussion is irrelevant as Sununu has definitively ruled himself out of running; if he were to run it would make more sense to challenge Maggie Hassan in 2022 when midterm turnout might be more favourable.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2019 16:56:03 GMT
Do you think he'd lose if he ran for Senate? The comparison is that Ayotte and McSally have lost Senate elections. Sununu in 2020? Yes, Shaheen has done little wrong, doesn’t look like she’ll be primaried, and beat a high profile candidate fairly comfortably last time out in a bad year for Democrats. I’m also totally convinced that, barring an unforeseen circumstance of the magnitude of 9/11, Trump cannot expand his 2016 map, and, despite his current traditional campaign bluster of winning more States, will on Election Day be seeking to merely defend what he’s got. However this discussion is irrelevant as Sununu has definitively ruled himself out of running; if he were to run it would make more sense to challenge Maggie Hassan in 2022 when midterm turnout might be more favourable. I agree, and it would help the Republicans hold the Senate in 2022
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Post by lancastrian on Jul 16, 2019 18:08:04 GMT
Is it a particularly egregious litmus test to say that Democrats want candidates who will not vote to effectively gut Obamacare and a whole host of other priorities? Well quite. Even Joe Manchin, easily the most right wing Senate Democrat, is solid on matters like Obamacare and if you can't sell such a position in dirt poor states like Kentucky you have no business running for high office. Manchin voted for Kavanaugh, exactly the same as McGrath would have done. He's not at all solid on Obamacare.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jul 17, 2019 8:54:09 GMT
Well quite. Even Joe Manchin, easily the most right wing Senate Democrat, is solid on matters like Obamacare and if you can't sell such a position in dirt poor states like Kentucky you have no business running for high office. Manchin voted for Kavanaugh, exactly the same as McGrath would have done. He's not at all solid on Obamacare. Well he voted against all serious attempts to repeal it, which I think is solid enough for most sensible Democrats.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 17, 2019 10:47:32 GMT
Manchin voted for Kavanaugh, exactly the same as McGrath would have done. He's not at all solid on Obamacare. Well he voted against all serious attempts to repeal it, which I think is solid enough for most sensible Democrats. His argument has always been that as around 80% of West Virginians get their health insurance through the so-called Obamacare exchanges he’d be pretty dumb to abolish them. I suspect if somebody came up with some workable changes, that weren’t the Sanders/Warren individual mandate, he’d at least consider them, but he would oppose the outright repeal that McCain killed a couple of years ago.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 24, 2019 10:48:13 GMT
Amusing: While it is obvious, that in 2018 suburban seats with their small margins flipped, i posted on page 238 a chart (comparing the RawVotes 2016-2018) showing, that the GOP lost the most in rural areas, where the Dem.'s votes were even increasing. Nobody tried to refute it, nontheless it's still one of the obiter dicta here, that it were especially the SubUrbs, which swung...
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 24, 2019 12:47:34 GMT
Amusing: While it is obvious, that in 2018 suburban seats with their small margins flipped, i posted on page 238 a chart (comparing the RawVotes 2016-2018) showing, that the GOP lost the most in rural areas, where the Dem.'s votes were even increasing. Nobody tried to refute it, nontheless it's still one of the obiter dicta here, that it were especially the SubUrbs, which swung... Can you post this on the Presidential Election thread, it might help @conservativeestimate realise that Trump is beyond unlikely to win Minnesota which has apparently metamorphosed into Mississippi or Arkansas.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2019 13:57:22 GMT
Amusing: While it is obvious, that in 2018 suburban seats with their small margins flipped, i posted on page 238 a chart (comparing the RawVotes 2016-2018) showing, that the GOP lost the most in rural areas, where the Dem.'s votes were even increasing. Nobody tried to refute it, nontheless it's still one of the obiter dicta here, that it were especially the SubUrbs, which swung... Can you post this on the Presidential Election thread, it might help @conservativeestimate realise that Trump is beyond unlikely to win Minnesota which has apparently metamorphosed into Mississippi or Arkansas. Not what I said. "The rural parts are starting to vote like the South." E.g. Trump getting 70% in two Minnesota counties.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 2, 2019 1:02:08 GMT
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 3, 2019 10:12:43 GMT
Hurd's retirement certainly makes TX-23 the top Democratic pick up opportunity of the cycle, it is one of just 3 districts that Clinton carried in 2016 to elect a GOP congressman in 2018 (PA-01 and NY-24 being the others).
The bigger picture is there have been 6 GOP house members announce their retirement in the last few weeks, mostly from the more moderate side of the party. They almost all represented safe seats but such a run of retirements is telling about the current feelings of the House GOP conference.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 3, 2019 22:46:50 GMT
Not wishing to be fussy but shouldn’t this be in the Presidential Election thread?
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Post by independentukip on Aug 3, 2019 23:39:27 GMT
This article and its source (Politico) don't mention the candidate they don't like to talk about. I don't know her resources but if she was heading down like the others I'm sure they'd be willing to do a critical name check. Apparently she needed 130,000 donors to get to the next debate which has been easily surpassed already. I'm not familiar with other obstacles (if any) in the way of her getting there but presumably DNC and the broadcaster will be looking to find something which doesn't also take out one of their preferred candidates. There's also no refernce to the source of the funding for the 5. Bernie is well known for having huge numbers of small donations but it would not be to their credit if some of the others are doing OK financially because of big donors who expect them to perform in their interests if elected.
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