timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 4, 2019 1:09:11 GMT
This article and its source (Politico) don't mention the candidate they don't like to talk about. I don't know her resources but if she was heading down like the others I'm sure they'd be willing to do a critical name check. Apparently she needed 130,000 donors to get to the next debate which has been easily surpassed already. I'm not familiar with other obstacles (if any) in the way of her getting there but presumably DNC and the broadcaster will be looking to find something which doesn't also take out one of their preferred candidates. There's also no refernce to the source of the funding for the 5. Bernie is well known for having huge numbers of small donations but it would not be to their credit if some of the others are doing OK financially because of big donors who expect them to perform in their interests if elected. The fundraising criteria for the next TV debate(s) are 130,000 individual donations from a minimum of 400 unique donors in 20 States. Candidates also need to have registered 2% support in four polls conducted by pollsters approved by the DNC between June and 28 August. It is believed from media sources crunching the publicly available data that the following have already qualified: Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O'Rourke, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Julián Castro and Andrew Yang have met the fundraising criteria and are one poll short, Tom Steyer, Tulsi Gabbard and John Hickenlooper are two polls short. None of the other candidates had hit 2% in any poll published prior to this week’s debates.
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 22, 2019 12:16:32 GMT
John Hickenlooper has confirmed his entrance into the Colorado Senate race, giving the Democrats arguably their strongest challenger to incumbent Republican Cory Gardner.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 22, 2019 17:26:43 GMT
John Hickenlooper has confirmed his entrance into the Colorado Senate race, giving the Democrats arguably their strongest challenger to incumbent Republican Cory Gardner. I already considered this race a toss up but with Hickenlooper in I would say it leans Democrat.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 22, 2019 17:35:57 GMT
John Hickenlooper has confirmed his entrance into the Colorado Senate race, giving the Democrats arguably their strongest challenger to incumbent Republican Cory Gardner. I already considered this race a toss up but with Hickenlooper in I would say it leans Democrat. I tend to agree he improves Democrats chances, but his decidedly lacklustre performance over the past few months makes me wonder.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2019 18:20:35 GMT
In 2016 the Senate elections exactly reflected the Presidential election for the first time since the direct election of Senators began in 1914.
Hence Cory Gardner is unlikely to hold on. The same is true for Doug Jones in Alabama.
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Post by edgbaston on Aug 22, 2019 19:36:23 GMT
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 22, 2019 19:44:25 GMT
I mean not really because there are very few Black people there and the Democrats still dominated the area at state level until only a few years ago. So more like, you know, Arkansas (away from the Delta bits) - which is just next door anyway. The really interesting piece of psephological trivia regarding Little Dixie is that it was one of regions of greatest strength for the old Socialist Party a century ago.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 22, 2019 21:13:37 GMT
I mean not really because there are very few Black people there and the Democrats still dominated the area at state level until only a few years ago. So more like, you know, Arkansas (away from the Delta bits) - which is just next door anyway. The really interesting piece of psephological trivia regarding Little Dixie is that it was one of regions of greatest strength for the old Socialist Party a century ago. And very unusual in that the area was very rural, as opposed to the traditional socialist hot spots of areas with lots of heavy industry etc.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 22, 2019 21:15:36 GMT
In 2016 the Senate elections exactly reflected the Presidential election for the first time since the direct election of Senators began in 1914. Hence Cory Gardner is unlikely to hold on. The same is true for Doug Jones in Alabama. While technically true, that fact hides that there was still a decent amount of ticket splitting. People like John McCain way out performed Trump while in states like Pennsylvania the presidential and Senate coalitions diverged a decent amount to ultimately deliver the same margin of victory.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 22, 2019 23:30:00 GMT
In 2016 the Senate elections exactly reflected the Presidential election for the first time since the direct election of Senators began in 1914. Hence Cory Gardner is unlikely to hold on. The same is true for Doug Jones in Alabama. While technically true, that fact hides that there was still a decent amount of ticket splitting. People like John McCain way out performed Trump while in states like Pennsylvania the presidential and Senate coalitions diverged a decent amount to ultimately deliver the same margin of victory. Spot on. That the Presidential and Senate results matched was a fluke. To take just one example, if every statewide GOP candidate in Missouri polled 3% less then Trump would have still won comfortably while Roy Blunt would have lost. Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina and Maine (not an exhaustive list) could easily go different ways in the 2020 presidential and senate elections.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 23, 2019 0:22:20 GMT
I mean not really because there are very few Black people there and the Democrats still dominated the area at state level until only a few years ago. So more like, you know, Arkansas (away from the Delta bits) - which is just next door anyway. The really interesting piece of psephological trivia regarding Little Dixie is that it was one of regions of greatest strength for the old Socialist Party a century ago. And very unusual in that the area was very rural, as opposed to the traditional socialist hot spots of areas with lots of heavy industry etc. Yes, although there were a couple of other hotbeds of rural Socialist support in South: and in the actual Deep South as well. Notably in parts of Louisiana - including the area that Huey Long hailed from (and which later voted so strongly for David Duke...) - and the ever-idiosyncratic Jones County, Mississippi.
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Post by curiousliberal on Aug 24, 2019 10:56:55 GMT
In 2016 the Senate elections exactly reflected the Presidential election for the first time since the direct election of Senators began in 1914. Hence Cory Gardner is unlikely to hold on. The same is true for Doug Jones in Alabama. While technically true, that fact hides that there was still a decent amount of ticket splitting. People like John McCain way out performed Trump while in states like Pennsylvania the presidential and Senate coalitions diverged a decent amount to ultimately deliver the same margin of victory. There was divergence as usual, but split ticket voting in '16 was the lowest it's ever been (governor races were a little more flexible than the Senate). Expect the gap to shrink further in 2020 - Republican moderates tend to do worse in the era of Trump, and combined with the spinelessness of the party establishment, this has meant its elected representatives trend (outside of the northeast) towards adopting his politics root and branch.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 27, 2019 16:26:13 GMT
Three weeks ago the race for Governor of Mississippi took a surprising turn when Lt Gov Tate Reeves narrowly failed to hit 50% in the GOP primary and so was forced into a run off with former state Supreme Court Justice Bill Waller who polled 33% after running a centrist campaign and criticising Reeves record as Lt Gov. Today is run off day and while Reeves remains solid favourite the result could be embarrassingly close. State Representative Robert Foster who polled 18% in the primary and also ran hard against Reeves has endorsed Waller and enthusiastically campaigned for him. An underwhelming performance today is not what Reeves needs ahead of a competitive general election against Jim Hood who easily prevailed in the Democratic primary with nearly 70% of the vote in a 7 way race.
Furthermore the major concern for Reeves is where he under performed three weeks ago. He won 74 of Mississippi's 82 counties but Waller took all three of the counties making up the greater Jackson area including Reeves home county of Rankin. Waller also clammed Lafayette county which is centred on Oxford and home the University of Mississippi while Foster took DeSoto county which is essentially the southern suburbs of Memphis spilling over the state border. Essentially this was a suburban revolt against Reeves and it must be a concern for his team that voters like these could easily vote for Hood in November.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 27, 2019 21:14:55 GMT
In local news former Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who benefited from a Trump Presidential Pardon, has announced he’s running for his old job in Maricopa County, Arizona next year.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 28, 2019 1:56:55 GMT
Three weeks ago the race for Governor of Mississippi took a surprising turn when Lt Gov Tate Reeves narrowly failed to hit 50% in the GOP primary and so was forced into a run off with former state Supreme Court Justice Bill Waller who polled 33% after running a centrist campaign and criticising Reeves record as Lt Gov. Today is run off day and while Reeves remains solid favourite the result could be embarrassingly close. State Representative Robert Foster who polled 18% in the primary and also ran hard against Reeves has endorsed Waller and enthusiastically campaigned for him. An underwhelming performance today is not what Reeves needs ahead of a competitive general election against Jim Hood who easily prevailed in the Democratic primary with nearly 70% of the vote in a 7 way race. Furthermore the major concern for Reeves is where he under performed three weeks ago. He won 74 of Mississippi's 82 counties but Waller took all three of the counties making up the greater Jackson area including Reeves home county of Rankin. Waller also clammed Lafayette county which is centred on Oxford and home the University of Mississippi while Foster took DeSoto county which is essentially the southern suburbs of Memphis spilling over the state border. Essentially this was a suburban revolt against Reeves and it must be a concern for his team that voters like these could easily vote for Hood in November. Tate Reeves has indeed won the run-off, 55.62-44.38 when the AP called it with 64.54% of precincts reporting.
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Post by bluelabour on Aug 28, 2019 14:47:55 GMT
Yet another Republican retirement in the Senate, Johnny Isakson of Georgia.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 28, 2019 14:49:26 GMT
Senator Johnny Isakson (R-Georgia) to resign his seat at the end of 2019. Means both of Georgia's Senate seats will be up, as open seats, in 2020 - possibly both in November. Possibly worth watching as Georgia is developing purplish tendencies.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 28, 2019 15:27:37 GMT
Yet another Republican retirement in the Senate, Johnny Isakson of Georgia. Not the biggest surprise, he’s begun to lose his battle against Parkinson’s recently, and had a minor spinal fracture after a fall earlier this year. Maybe a rethink for Stacy Abrams?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 28, 2019 15:30:14 GMT
Stacey Abrams has just ruled herself out.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 28, 2019 15:32:34 GMT
Stacey Abrams has just ruled herself out. Darn
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