jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 6, 2019 18:58:20 GMT
Stabenow had a relatively close race because she completely phoned it in. If James was really a great candidate then the Senate result would have looked a lot more like Florida. Gary Peters is completely anonymous but he also has a strong electoral track record so we will need to wait and see if he proves a strong campaigner or not.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2019 19:05:54 GMT
Stabenow had a relatively close race because she completely phoned it in. If James was really a great candidate then the Senate result would have looked a lot more like Florida. Gary Peters is completely anonymous but he also has a strong electoral track record so we will need to wait and see if he proves a strong campaigner or not. Stabenow led by 6 when the Dems led by 8 point nationwide. Not good for a state that's elected one Republican Senator since 1972. Stabenow wpn by 20 point in 2012 and outspent James nearly 2-1.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 6, 2019 19:16:51 GMT
Stabenow led by 6 when the Dems led by 8 point nationwide. Not good for a state that's elected one Republican Senator since 1972. That statistic means nothing. Trump won the state in 2016 while Clinton won by 2% nationally, so Stabenow’s 6% win is exactly what a generic Democrat would get. Incumbency matters little these days and she basically didn’t campaign so that’s why she didn't do as well as some other Democrats eg; Whitmer.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 6, 2019 19:30:59 GMT
Stabenow led by 6 when the Dems led by 8 point nationwide. Not good for a state that's elected one Republican Senator since 1972. That statistic means nothing. Trump won the state in 2016 while Clinton won by 2% nationally, so Stabenow’s 6% win is exactly what a generic Democrat would get. Incumbency matters little these days and she basically didn’t campaign so that’s why she didn't do as well as some other Democrats eg; Whitmer. Stabenow is renowned as an awful fundraiser and campaigner; last year was the first year she actually raised a decent amount of money early.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2019 19:49:42 GMT
Stabenow led by 6 when the Dems led by 8 point nationwide. Not good for a state that's elected one Republican Senator since 1972. That statistic means nothing. Trump won the state in 2016 while Clinton won by 2% nationally, so Stabenow’s 6% win is exactly what a generic Democrat would get. Incumbency matters little these days and she basically didn’t campaign so that’s why she didn't do as well as some other Democrats eg; Whitmer. But Democrats running for Senate tend to do a lot better than Democrats nationally - e.g. Gary Peters winning by 15 in a Republican wave year in 2014. Stabenow winning by 6 should be of concern in an election where the Democrats led by a big margin nationally.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 6, 2019 20:11:52 GMT
That statistic means nothing. Trump won the state in 2016 while Clinton won by 2% nationally, so Stabenow’s 6% win is exactly what a generic Democrat would get. Incumbency matters little these days and she basically didn’t campaign so that’s why she didn't do as well as some other Democrats eg; Whitmer. But Democrats running for Senate tend to do a lot better than Democrats nationally - e.g. Gary Peters winning by 15 in a Republican wave year in 2014. Stabenow winning by 6 should be of concern in an election where the Democrats led by a big margin nationally. You can’t read much into 2014; Peters’ Republican opponent made no public appearances after May, national Republicans pulling all their funding from her in September. She also declined any TV debates with Peters. There’s two schools of thought amongst Michigan GOPers given their good performance throughout the State that year - one that Land was a poor candidate, and she does appear to have been about their fourth choice after three House members declined, but also that Peters was, to use the then Republican Chair in Michigan words, “a campaigning juggernaut”.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2019 20:13:39 GMT
But Democrats running for Senate tend to do a lot better than Democrats nationally - e.g. Gary Peters winning by 15 in a Republican wave year in 2014. Stabenow winning by 6 should be of concern in an election where the Democrats led by a big margin nationally. You can’t read much into 2014; Peters’ Republican opponent made no public appearances after May, national Republicans pulling all their funding from her in September. She also declined any TV debates with Peters. There’s two schools of thought amongst Michigan GOPers given their good performance throughout the State that year - one that Land was a poor candidate, and she does appear to have been about their fourth choice after three House members declined, but also that Peters was, to use the then Republican Chair in Michigan words, “a campaigning juggernaut”. I'm of the view that if Trump wins Michigan, James will beat Peters.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jul 6, 2019 20:14:14 GMT
John James is an attractive candidate and he deserves a lot of credit for his 2018 result. However restricting a complacent incumbent to a 7 point win is not the same as actually winning yourself and Gary Peters starts the 2020 race as prohibitive favourite.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 6, 2019 20:16:05 GMT
Stabenow is renowned as an awful fundraiser and campaigner; last year was the first year she actually raised a decent amount of money early. She might have tried early on but by the end of the campaign she was completely phoning it in.
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 6, 2019 20:40:17 GMT
Stabenow is renowned as an awful fundraiser and campaigner; last year was the first year she actually raised a decent amount of money early. She might have tried early on but by the end of the campaign she was completely phoning it in. Yeah, but according to DK Elections each candidate is given a fundraising target for the cycle by the DSCC and last year was the first time Stabenow exceeded her target before Labor Day. I think it was Sabato who said they only rated Michigan as Likely Democratic not Solid Democratic because of Stabenow’s history of poor fundraising and lazy campaigning.
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 9, 2019 11:26:33 GMT
Kris Kobach running for the open Kansas Senate seat, Mike Pompeo coming under a lot of pressure from Mitch McConnell and the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee to quit as Secretary of State and Primary against Kobach.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jul 9, 2019 18:41:52 GMT
Should be fairly easy for the NRSC to stop Kobach. The message is simple, 'This loser handed the governorship of Kansas to a Democrat, don't let him throw away our majority in the Senate'.
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Post by offshore on Jul 10, 2019 18:43:02 GMT
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jul 10, 2019 19:56:54 GMT
Expect a massive amount of hype followed by a comfortable McConnell win.
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 10, 2019 21:19:24 GMT
Expect a massive amount of hype followed by a comfortable McConnell win. The one and only advantage is the Republicans will have to divert more resources than usual just to match McGrath’s spending that could of course be spent on more competitive seats.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jul 10, 2019 23:29:31 GMT
Expect a massive amount of hype followed by a comfortable McConnell win. The one and only advantage is the Republicans will have to divert more resources than usual just to match McGrath’s spending that could of course be spent on more competitive seats. Not really. In 2014 McConnell instructed the NRSC not to spend any money on his behalf, insisting that he could raise whatever money was necessary. He will almost certainly do so again because firstly he can and will raise whatever money he needs and secondly he understands that as a Party Leader it is his duty to do so. He had $5.5 million cash on hand at the end of Q1 and when the Q2 figures come out expect a big increase on that.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 10, 2019 23:30:42 GMT
McConnell is the most unpopular Senator of any state but it’s still Kentucky. Rand Paul’s 15% win in 2016 is probably a good night for Democrats. Hillary lost Kentucky by 30% and a lot of the ancestral Democrats who even in 2016 voted against Paul will probably go Republican in a Senate race in 2020. Democrats actually lost a few state legislative seats in 2018 that they won in 2016. Partisanship has been getting stronger downballot and sometimes more than outweighed the much better national environment.
McGrath has said she would have voted for Kavanaugh (despite literally tweeting that she opposed him when running for the House in 2018). Expect this sort of strategy to see the grassroots donations dry up.
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edgbaston
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Post by edgbaston on Jul 10, 2019 23:38:07 GMT
McConnell is the most unpopular Senator of any state but it’s still Kentucky. McGrath has said she would have voted for Kavanaugh (despite literally tweeting that she opposed him when running for the House in 2018). Expect this sort of strategy to see the grassroots donations dry up. So does the left just write off about 20 states and 40 senate seats, cause clearly even the dems elected there would be conservative voting?
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 10, 2019 23:46:45 GMT
McConnell is the most unpopular Senator of any state but it’s still Kentucky. McGrath has said she would have voted for Kavanaugh (despite literally tweeting that she opposed him when running for the House in 2018). Expect this sort of strategy to see the grassroots donations dry up. So does the left just write off about 20 states and 40 senate seats, cause clearly even the dems elected there would be conservative voting? The vast majority of Democrats opposed Kavanaugh, including many from conservative states eg; Heidi Heitkamp. McGrath herself literally said she opposed him but has now flip-flopped for no particular reason. Is it a particularly egregious litmus test to say that Democrats want candidates who will not vote to effectively gut Obamacare and a whole host of other priorities?
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jul 10, 2019 23:59:06 GMT
McConnell is the most unpopular Senator of any state but it’s still Kentucky. McConnell is heavily disliked but the combination of partisanship and the recognition that he wields immense power is more than enough to convince lots of people to vote for him regardless of what they think of him personally.
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