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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2019 12:02:10 GMT
Since Steve Bullock isn't going to be in the Dem presidential debates I think he may run for the Montana Senate seat up in 2020. If Bullock runs in Montana, I can see Senate races there and in Arizona and Colorado being Democratic gains. Bullock is pretty adamant, publicly at least, that he struggles to imagine anything he’d rather do less than serve in the Senate. However I’d agree Arizona and Colorado should flip, and if the Republicans nominate Kris Kobach again I’d put Kansas on the watch list. Howeer, I don't see Georgia, Maine, North Carolina or Texas flipping. Abrams and O'Rourke would lose on presidential turnout.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 24, 2019 12:13:11 GMT
Bullock is pretty adamant, publicly at least, that he struggles to imagine anything he’d rather do less than serve in the Senate. However I’d agree Arizona and Colorado should flip, and if the Republicans nominate Kris Kobach again I’d put Kansas on the watch list. Howeer, I don't see Georgia, Maine, North Carolina or Texas flipping. Abrams and O'Rourke would lose on presidential turnout. North Carolina is very flippable, especially as Tillis might not even survive the primary, and at Presidential level it’s become very purple, and wasn’t overly strong for Trump in 2016. I agree about Georgia (especially as Abrams has ruled out a Senate bid and may still run for President) and Texas as Cornyn simply isn’t as disliked as Cruz. Maine is likely to stay Republican although the Democratic field is still developing, and if they employ ranked voting as they did for the House last year Collins could be in trouble on transfers as Poliquin was in ME02.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2019 12:27:05 GMT
Howeer, I don't see Georgia, Maine, North Carolina or Texas flipping. Abrams and O'Rourke would lose on presidential turnout. North Carolina is very flippable, especially as Tillis might not even survive the primary, and at Presidential level it’s become very purple, and wasn’t overly strong for Trump in 2016. I agree about Georgia (especially as Abrams has ruled out a Senate bid and may still run for President) and Texas as Cornyn simply isn’t as disliked as Cruz. Maine is likely to stay Republican although the Democratic field is still developing, and if they employ ranked voting as they did for the House last year Collins could be in trouble on transfers as Poliquin was in ME02. In that case I think she'd win on the first ballot. It'll be harder for Golden to hold on with Trump on the ballot than it will be for Susan Collins to hold her Senate seat.
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 24, 2019 12:59:31 GMT
North Carolina is very flippable, especially as Tillis might not even survive the primary, and at Presidential level it’s become very purple, and wasn’t overly strong for Trump in 2016. I agree about Georgia (especially as Abrams has ruled out a Senate bid and may still run for President) and Texas as Cornyn simply isn’t as disliked as Cruz. Maine is likely to stay Republican although the Democratic field is still developing, and if they employ ranked voting as they did for the House last year Collins could be in trouble on transfers as Poliquin was in ME02. In that case I think she'd win on the first ballot. It'll be harder for Golden to hold on with Trump on the ballot than it will be for Susan Collins to hold her Senate seat. With the caveat that polling this early is pretty meaningless, in three of the four published polls she’s not above 44%. ME02 might be tougher for Golden, but a lot will depend on the candidate. There’s also a poll in the Bangor Daily News from April that’s geoblocked for some reason, but I’ve been able to use VPN to convince it I’m in Atlanta, that has Trump at 60% disapproval, 48% saying they “definitely” won’t vote for him, and even with that the commentary suggests it’s over sampled the 2nd District.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 24, 2019 13:04:28 GMT
Bullock is pretty adamant, publicly at least, that he struggles to imagine anything he’d rather do less than serve in the Senate. However I’d agree Arizona and Colorado should flip, and if the Republicans nominate Kris Kobach again I’d put Kansas on the watch list. Really can’t see Kansas flipping. Kobach was a crap candidate but the main reason Democrats won the Kansas gubernatorial race was because the state Republican Party had become insanely unpopular. Their legacy won’t be on the ballot in 2020 (and will be partially forgotten anyways) and the Senate race will be nationalised which will definitely help Republicans. Kobach would underperform but can’t see it being very close.
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 24, 2019 13:19:21 GMT
Bullock is pretty adamant, publicly at least, that he struggles to imagine anything he’d rather do less than serve in the Senate. However I’d agree Arizona and Colorado should flip, and if the Republicans nominate Kris Kobach again I’d put Kansas on the watch list. Really can’t see Kansas flipping. Kobach was a crap candidate but the main reason Democrats won the Kansas gubernatorial race was because the state Republican Party had become insanely unpopular. Their legacy won’t be on the ballot in 2020 (and will be partially forgotten anyways) and the Senate race will be nationalised which will definitely help Republicans. Kobach would underperform but can’t see it being very close. Hmmm doesn’t explain why both the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee and Senate Majority PAC (Mitch McConnell’s vehicle) are already running anti Kobach ads online. Trump has also publicly called on Kobach not to run, so they’re obviously spooked by the prospect.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2019 13:28:14 GMT
McConnell himself may lose.
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 24, 2019 13:32:47 GMT
McConnell himself may lose. Possible, the Democrats were convinced he was vulnerable last time but he won at a canter. He’s unlikely to have much of a primary, has money to burn and will have Trump’s backing. The only danger on the horizon I’d say is these persistent allegations of his wife (Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao) misusing government funds for private trips.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 24, 2019 14:37:56 GMT
Hmmm doesn’t explain why both the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee and Senate Majority PAC (Mitch McConnell’s vehicle) are already running anti Kobach ads online. Trump has also publicly called on Kobach not to run, so they’re obviously spooked by the prospect. If the Republican Party apparatus was run purely based upon logical electoral strategy then a lot of its actions over the years would make no sense. I mean they spent 10s of millions on Virginia 10th despite it being lost the moment Trump won in 2016. I imagine they just don’t like Kobach and don’t want to risk making it remotely close. Perhaps they do think it is competitive, but that doesn’t mean it actually is.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 24, 2019 14:43:16 GMT
McConnell himself may lose. McConnell has long been a weak incumbent (perhaps the weakest anywhere) but that hasn’t stopped him winning re-election in the past. Kentucky is just way too red at the federal level for him to lose.
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 24, 2019 14:44:03 GMT
Hmmm doesn’t explain why both the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee and Senate Majority PAC (Mitch McConnell’s vehicle) are already running anti Kobach ads online. Trump has also publicly called on Kobach not to run, so they’re obviously spooked by the prospect. If the Republican Party apparatus was run purely based upon logical electoral strategy then a lot of its actions over the years would make no sense. I mean they spent 10s of millions on Virginia 10th despite it being lost the moment Trump won in 2016. I imagine they just don’t like Kobach and don’t want to risk making it remotely close. Perhaps they do think it is competitive, but that doesn’t mean it actually is. The apparatus isn’t faultless, but Virginia 10 was weird in that outside GOP groups stopped spending but the RCCC didn’t. They definitely don’t like Kobach, but equally they saw the awful campaign he ran last year and don’t want a repeat. Ideally as well if they can keep him out now they can then ignore the race and refocus on defending McSally, Tillis and Gardner, whilst trying to put one or two Democrats such as Shaheen on defence.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2019 16:51:28 GMT
The GOP could win New Hampshire but it'd require Gov. Sununu being the candidate.
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Post by curiousliberal on Jun 26, 2019 15:26:57 GMT
Since Steve Bullock isn't going to be in the Dem presidential debates I think he may run for the Montana Senate seat up in 2020. If Bullock runs in Montana, I can see Senate races there and in Arizona and Colorado being Democratic gains. He only failed to qualify for the June debates because open-ended polls weren't counted. He has since qualified for the July debates - I think he'll tough it out until then, at least.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 26, 2019 23:39:37 GMT
The GOP could win New Hampshire but it'd require Gov. Sununu being the candidate. Sununu has already said that he will run for a third term as Governor. Presumably he realises that running against Shaheen in a presidential year would be an uphill struggle but if the Democrats win the Presidency next year he would have a good shot against Hassan in 2022. The only GOP candidate running for the Senate so far is Donald Bolduc, a retired Brigadier General. He has an impressive looking background but whether that translates into an able political campaign is another matter.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2019 9:59:08 GMT
New Hampshire is one of three states I think Trump can flip - can't wait to see how the Senate race goes if he does.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 28, 2019 10:01:09 GMT
New Hampshire is one of three states I think Trump can flip - can't wait to see how the Senate race goes if he does. HRC was even more unpopular there than generally, though?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2019 15:09:15 GMT
I think the Republicans will win Michigan Senate race in 2020.
John James got close to beating Debbie Stabenow who's been there since 2000. She also outspent James by a fair amount. In 2020, with Presidential turnout, more money and more name recognition than in 2018, I expect John James to win.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 6, 2019 15:23:13 GMT
I think the Republicans will win Michigan Senate race in 2020. Why?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2019 15:34:30 GMT
I think the Republicans will win Michigan Senate race in 2020. Why? Read my comment again.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 6, 2019 15:44:08 GMT
Oh sorry, Tapatalk mobile App is mangling posts again; all I’ve got showing on my iPhone is the bit I quoted, not including the subsequent paragraph. Now I’ve put the desktop version up I can see the whole thing.
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