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Post by curiousliberal on May 7, 2021 17:43:41 GMT
Ahead of 2022, Justice Democrats have endorsed challengers to Tennesee Rep. Jim Cooper (TN-05) and House Oversight Committee Chair Carolyn Maloney (NY-12) who narrowly survived a primary challenge in 2020. I wonder if they will also endorse John Fetterman in his bid for Senate in Pennsylvania. Not sure about Fetterman, he’s not totally ideologically pure; opposes the Green New Deal, supports some fracking, and is closer to the middle on gun control. If anyone, I suspect they’d back Kenyatta. Kenyatta is relatively closely aligned with establishment Democrats despite being significantly further left than most of them. It’s an odd relationship, and I suspect the JDs will try to hang fire unless and until one of these two candidates drops out.
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Post by curiousliberal on May 7, 2021 9:51:15 GMT
But if those Brexit votes stick to the Tories that's another 30 or so seats in the bag Simply adding 2019 Conservative+Brexit vote totals gives 38 more constituencies in this category: Barnsley Central Barnsley East Bedford Blaydon Bradford South Chesterfield Coventry North West Coventry South Dagenham and Rainham Doncaster Central Doncaster North Easington Halifax Hartlepool
Hemsworth Houghton and Sunderland South Hull East Hull West and Hessle Makerfield Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Oldham East and Saddleworth Rotherham Sheffield South East Stalybridge and Hyde Stockton North Sunderland Central Wansbeck Warrington North Warwick and Leamington Washington and Sunderland West Weaver Vale Wentworth and Dearne Wolverhampton South East Worsley and Eccles South Alyn and Deeside Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Newport East Newport West Torfaen It’s illustrative, but misguided. The Labour slump and turnout changes (with by-election health warnings) suggest to me that there are probably significant levels of BXP->Lab and direct Lab->Con switching going on. Were this to be repeated nationally in a GE, I would expect carnage for Labour in plenty of other seats. However, the trends aren’t likely to be as bleak (for them) in most seats.
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Post by curiousliberal on May 4, 2021 17:08:05 GMT
Well we only have a few days to wait but I think it is quite possible, even probable, that Labour are narrowing the gap nationally while falling further back in places like Hartlepool. Many areas that trended heavily from Labour in 2019 are going to continue down that path. But why would they as a party be doing so in places like Hartlepool? I can understand Labour making little headway, but even in more culturally conservative places like Hartlepool there are a small number of Lib Dems that they should be winning over along with a sliver of Brexit Party supporters (i've always viewed the Brexit Party vote as more Conservative leaning than many other posters, but Labour would still get a non-negligible share). The national polls also suggest a small number of Conservative to Labour switchers and this was generally found to be stronger in the so-called 'Red Wall'. I don't see why places like Hartlepool would be expected to see stagnant or even lower Labour vote shares, particularly when Brexit and Corbyn are increasingly distant memories (the sorts of areas that trended away from Labour in 2019 may do so again in 2024 depending on the major parties positioning by then, but Labour should at the very least see a short lived dead-cat bounce). Hartlepool is certainly not the sort of place that is undergoing noticeable demographic changes that are unfavourable to Labour eg; North East Derbyshire, so further vote share loss would be dependent on the party's positioning since 2019 getting even worse which is hard to believe (even if it is far from ideal). One reason could be that people didn't buy into BoJo's eocnomic rhetoric pre-election and switched only when the government delivered (some) proof of the pudding. This is the most protectionist Conservative government since Heath's, and the Heath administration was moving in the other direction. I would not be surprised to see a significant number of 2019 Labour-2024 Conservative voters - people who even preferred the Corbyn-led party to what they thought the Conservatives were going to be (e.g. continuity Cameron/May), but like their post-2019 record enough to care little for much of what Labour is offering.
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Post by curiousliberal on May 4, 2021 0:45:14 GMT
This is not clear at all. He has a cult of personality, but there are other popular Conservatives waiting in the wings, like Rishi Sunak (who has higher approval ratings). It is quite possible they only need to harness a trend he's already done the hard work of tapping into. Part of what is happening in this constituency (and similar seats) is just the inevitable result of an ageing population and pensioners being a pretty protected social class in this country. Lots of these voters are going to stay Conservative for as long as there is clear water between Labour and the Tories on social issues, and for as long as the Conservatives remain willing to raise or borrow the revenue required for triple-locked pensions, winter fuel allowances, NHS services for the elderly, lockdowns, etc. When a town is left to die, its inhabitants tend to become more open to a populist approach, but the departure of younger people from the area might well be a more important factor in changing its voting habits. Labour will almost certainly need Hartlepool if they're to win the next election, but as long as it continues to decline in the manner it has, it will (in the long term) continue to drift further away from whatever forms their path to a majority. It appears the only popular Labour person waiting in the wings is Blair. Blair is neither popular nor waiting in the wings. The trends here continued apace under his administration, and reheating his approach now that the novelty’s worn off isn’t much more likely to succeed than the Berlusconi comeback bids.
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Post by curiousliberal on May 3, 2021 17:30:16 GMT
Clearly Boris has an appeal that reaches into parts of the electorate that no other Tory can . Which raises issues for the Tories regarding his successor of course. Calling these people 'thick and gullible' is crass and self-defeatingly rude ( parallels with Hilary Clinton's deplorables perhaps) but it is making a valid point that these are usually 'low information' voters who can be swayed by a kind of charisma and celebrity . This is not clear at all. He has a cult of personality, but there are other popular Conservatives waiting in the wings, like Rishi Sunak (who has higher approval ratings). It is quite possible they only need to harness a trend he's already done the hard work of tapping into. Part of what is happening in this constituency (and similar seats) is just the inevitable result of an ageing population and pensioners being a pretty protected social class in this country. Lots of these voters are going to stay Conservative for as long as there is clear water between Labour and the Tories on social issues, and for as long as the Conservatives remain willing to raise or borrow the revenue required for triple-locked pensions, winter fuel allowances, NHS services for the elderly, lockdowns, etc. When a town is left to die, its inhabitants tend to become more open to a populist approach, but the departure of younger people from the area might well be a more important factor in changing its voting habits. Labour will almost certainly need Hartlepool if they're to win the next election, but as long as it continues to decline in the manner it has, it will (in the long term) continue to drift further away from whatever forms their path to a majority.
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Post by curiousliberal on May 1, 2021 18:20:57 GMT
May was never going to last beyond 2019. The issue was whether she'd leave on a high or (as is usual for just about any PM) a low. The big difference would be the succession. The polling implosion (that probably propelled Johnson to the premiership as much as anything else) from April onwards likely doesn't occur. Hunt or Gove probably win a summer leadership election. Doubt either would call an immediate election, but the parliamentary arithmetic would still be tight. If they can hang until March 2020 then they'd be able to hang on until at least May 2021. With a polling boost from the Covid crisis that would probably be the time for a general election. If she got the deal through Parliament, I could see her would-be successors hesitating (or failing) to challenge her until the transition period (another poisoned chalice) was over. That could mean May would still be PM right now.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 30, 2021 19:28:15 GMT
Not that surprising. She was demoted from DCCC chair after the disappointing House results, and perhaps she's decided there's no longer a future for her in the gerontocracy.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 5, 2021 23:29:47 GMT
How likely would the Union be to publish a poll which showed Labour struggling?It is surely the client's decision whether to reveal the details. What I find baffling about that CWU tweet is the idea that there is a correlation between the consecutive 2 sentences:
"People need and want radical change"
AND
"That's why we've commissioned a poll in Hartlepool" We want radical change in the dearth and quality of constituency polls, but I’m skeptical this does much for the latter.
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Post by curiousliberal on Mar 29, 2021 1:08:46 GMT
Is Alba a 'progressive' party? Sure, the website talks of 'the building of an economically successful and socially-just independent country, through the pursuit of a social-democratic programme', but that's pretty vague. They're a revenge party, nothing more. This is about Alex getting Nicola. If it was pure revenge, they'd run in the constituency seats as well. This looks a bit more serious.
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Post by curiousliberal on Mar 29, 2021 0:32:22 GMT
The sub-samples are hilarious, a tie on the North East and a 13 point Tory lead in Wales Sub samples mean fuck all. Wrong. They mean you can print dozens of sensationalist articles featuring wild speculation as to whether this week's viral moment caused a 15-point swing in the southeast.
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Post by curiousliberal on Mar 22, 2021 22:52:15 GMT
Possible, though I doubt it. Not least because the Tories will surely want the new Westminster boundaries in place first. When the FTPA out of the way we’ll be back to the (good?!) old days of a Prime Minister choosing the most advantageous date. One factor will be the boundary changes but much larger ones will be the shape and direction of the economy, the state of the opposition and major events with political implications (including any substantial return of the virus). After an initial boost following the lifting of lockdown the economy will be shaky. If we have a reasonably clear winter 2021/2 I’d not be amazed by a spring 2022 election, called before taxes start biting and the economy slows down again. But there are lots of ifs and buts before then. I'd be pretty surprised. The government will be especially apprehensive of unexpected developments after the last few years, and the May premiership will haunt anyone with a comfortable majority considering calling an election. They can probably delay austerity if political needs must, so I expect the earliest they'd want an election is in Q1 of 2024.
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Post by curiousliberal on Mar 22, 2021 22:48:53 GMT
More likely because he's a grifter and the whole Asgardian Parliament thing wasn't generating enough attention anymore.
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Post by curiousliberal on Mar 5, 2021 22:08:48 GMT
A lower-profile but more notable development is the introduction of GOP court-packing measures in AZ and MT. The 'institutional check' is one of many chocolate fireguards.
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Post by curiousliberal on Feb 23, 2021 11:13:22 GMT
I'm not too sure about this but a larger Green party/merged Green/LD party would probably be most likely to win new seats in densely populated constituencies and the areas most obviously affected by pollution and climate change. Depending on how much more common extreme weather becomes in Britain, that could lead to more electoral strength in coastal towns in the long term. Why would the Greens merge with the LD's? Many Greens are not liberals. Almost all liberals are environmentalists and most Greens are socially liberal (even the red-greens who are protectionist tend to be liberal on issues like surveillance, gay marriage, etc.). There is a lot of policy and demographic overlap, the pool of potential Green voters will grow as the effects of climate change worsen and, as their tent becomes bigger, it's likely to become a bit more ideologically diverse. Liberalism is likely to continue its decline in the UK and its parliamentary representatives, usually being pragmatic sorts, will probably seek a closer alliance as they did with the social democrats before. As climate change worsens, responding to it will become increasingly important to any party as concerned with freedoms as the Lib Dems are supposed to be, because of the threat of ecofascism. I could write a longer pitch about why the Georgist tradition is a natural basis for liberalism and environmentalism, but I'm not getting my hopes up too high regarding a popular revival of that theory.
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Post by curiousliberal on Feb 23, 2021 11:07:51 GMT
To clarify, I think they'd do better in these areas because the time lag of climate change plus short termism in electoral politics mean that even if governments have all cleaned up their acts by 2030, the effects felt are likely to be worse than now.
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Post by curiousliberal on Feb 23, 2021 11:04:24 GMT
I'm not too sure about this but a larger Green party/merged Green/LD party would probably be most likely to win new seats in densely populated constituencies and the areas most obviously affected by pollution and climate change. Depending on how much more common extreme weather becomes in Britain, that could lead to more electoral strength in coastal towns in the long term.
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Post by curiousliberal on Feb 22, 2021 19:49:28 GMT
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Post by curiousliberal on Feb 22, 2021 14:25:05 GMT
Well I guess you can always say that of each party. They evolve of course or disappear, which seems at the moment to be the more likely fate of the LibDems. I'd wager the Greens either merge with or eclipse the LibDems by the end of the 2020s.
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Post by curiousliberal on Feb 22, 2021 14:19:21 GMT
One safe prediction is that young leftists will be confidently predicting the imminent demise of the Conservative Party as the demographics heavily favour them. As did their fathers before them. And their grandfathers. Arguably, the Conservative Party of each era has died.
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Post by curiousliberal on Feb 13, 2021 0:05:38 GMT
She’d be better off going for Congress She lives in DC and her roots are in Connecticut. Either way, it'd probably be a doomed bid and there's more money to be grifted out of a presidential than a Congressional campaign.
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