slon
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Post by slon on Apr 30, 2021 8:52:44 GMT
And WA gets parliamentary approval with backstop meaning mainland UK remains aligned to EU customs etc until an agreement about NI can be reached
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Apr 30, 2021 9:08:57 GMT
And WA gets parliamentary approval with backstop meaning mainland UK remains aligned to EU customs etc until an agreement about NI can be reached
Theresa May is in place for Covid.
Would she have messed up Vaccine procurement?
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Apr 30, 2021 9:23:12 GMT
May was never going to last beyond 2019. The issue was whether she'd leave on a high or (as is usual for just about any PM) a low.
The big difference would be the succession. The polling implosion (that probably propelled Johnson to the premiership as much as anything else) from April onwards likely doesn't occur. Hunt or Gove probably win a summer leadership election. Doubt either would call an immediate election, but the parliamentary arithmetic would still be tight. If they can hang until March 2020 then they'd be able to hang on until at least May 2021. With a polling boost from the Covid crisis that would probably be the time for a general election.
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slon
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Post by slon on Apr 30, 2021 10:04:44 GMT
May was never going to last beyond 2019. The issue was whether she'd leave on a high or (as is usual for just about any PM) a low. The big difference would be the succession. The polling implosion (that probably propelled Johnson to the premiership as much as anything else) from April onwards likely doesn't occur. Hunt or Gove probably win a summer leadership election. Doubt either would call an immediate election, but the parliamentary arithmetic would still be tight. If they can hang until March 2020 then they'd be able to hang on until at least May 2021. With a polling boost from the Covid crisis that would probably be the time for a general election. How could she be replaced?
The electorate in a GE would never have backed Corbyn, the ERG had shot their bolt in the 1st no confidence vote so were stuck for 12 months.
If the DUP had backed the Irish backstop then the WA would have passed.
Question is what would have happened then? especially in NI. The DUP (or rather the NI assembly) would have a lot of control over what happened in England rather than the other way round
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Apr 30, 2021 10:21:22 GMT
May was never going to last beyond 2019. The issue was whether she'd leave on a high or (as is usual for just about any PM) a low. The big difference would be the succession. The polling implosion (that probably propelled Johnson to the premiership as much as anything else) from April onwards likely doesn't occur. Hunt or Gove probably win a summer leadership election. Doubt either would call an immediate election, but the parliamentary arithmetic would still be tight. If they can hang until March 2020 then they'd be able to hang on until at least May 2021. With a polling boost from the Covid crisis that would probably be the time for a general election. How could she be replaced?
The electorate in a GE would never have backed Corbyn, the ERG had shot their bolt in the 1st no confidence vote so were stuck for 12 months.
If the DUP had backed the Irish backstop then the WA would have passed.
Question is what would have happened then? especially in NI. The DUP (or rather the NI assembly) would have a lot of control over what happened in England rather than the other way round
The 12-month thing is an internal Conservative Party rule that can be changed at any time by the Conservative Party. The 1922 Committee was reported to have been on the brink on changing it which is what apparently made May finally announce her resignation. In some ways it can be compared to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act - it's there's to give the impression of stability but in reality it can easily be overridden of the circumstances call for it. |
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slon
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Post by slon on Apr 30, 2021 10:55:56 GMT
How could she be replaced?
The electorate in a GE would never have backed Corbyn, the ERG had shot their bolt in the 1st no confidence vote so were stuck for 12 months.
If the DUP had backed the Irish backstop then the WA would have passed.
Question is what would have happened then? especially in NI. The DUP (or rather the NI assembly) would have a lot of control over what happened in England rather than the other way round
The 12-month thing is an internal Conservative Party rule that can be changed at any time by the Conservative Party. The 1922 Committee was reported to have been on the brink on changing it which is what apparently made May finally announce her resignation. In some ways it can be compared to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act - it's there's to give the impression of stability but in reality it can easily be overridden of the circumstances call for it. You are missing the point
May won the party confidence vote in December 2018 with 63% of the vote. The May WA was finally defeated by the commons in March ... it could have passed and the WA could have survived if the DUP had come on board (May had already said she would resign if the bill passed, and obviously had to anyway when the bill fell).
The real alternative history question is not about Theresa May it is about the Brexit process and the DUP. With the backstop provisions in the May WA the DUP would seem to have a strong position in getting what they wanted
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Post by curiousliberal on May 1, 2021 18:20:57 GMT
May was never going to last beyond 2019. The issue was whether she'd leave on a high or (as is usual for just about any PM) a low. The big difference would be the succession. The polling implosion (that probably propelled Johnson to the premiership as much as anything else) from April onwards likely doesn't occur. Hunt or Gove probably win a summer leadership election. Doubt either would call an immediate election, but the parliamentary arithmetic would still be tight. If they can hang until March 2020 then they'd be able to hang on until at least May 2021. With a polling boost from the Covid crisis that would probably be the time for a general election. If she got the deal through Parliament, I could see her would-be successors hesitating (or failing) to challenge her until the transition period (another poisoned chalice) was over. That could mean May would still be PM right now. |
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slon
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Post by slon on May 3, 2021 14:41:29 GMT
The public and the party would he have accepted any form of Brexit and the Spartans would have been marginalised May would have continued as PM until she called a GE and it would have been against Corbyn so she would have won As such she would still be PM during Covid
As you say the public just wanted to see the back of the process. May had already said she would resign in March 2019 and I guess she would have even if she won the vote, who would have then taken over is questionable.
But the real question is about the WA and the backstop and the DUP and the NI assembly. The backstop in the WA would have constrained the actions of the English parliament whether they liked it or not, and given a lot of power to the NI politicians.
With the Boris WA the NI politicians and especially the DUP have no power at all
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dundas
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Post by dundas on May 6, 2021 14:04:30 GMT
The public and the party would he have accepted any form of Brexit and the Spartans would have been marginalised May would have continued as PM until she called a GE and it would have been against Corbyn so she would have won As such she would still be PM during Covid Not so sure. Corbyn's Eurospectic credentials gave him buttress with those centre left and tribal left voters who felt the same way, even if they were more Blairite on other issues. A post brexit GE could have returned another hung parliament, with a National Government (which we have in all but name anyway) quickly forming over Covid. If May were too partisan to figurehead this, Phil Hammond looks better odds than de Pfeffel to be her successor. |
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