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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 3, 2024 18:11:48 GMT
St Helier W Con 1342 LD 1336 Lab 682 Ind 367 Ind 62 Con gain from Lab One of those results that comes as a surprise probably due to having an outdated view of a place. When I was in that part of the world, the St Helier wards were Labour's bastion in a sea of yellow. I'm not totally surprised to see it go Conservative in post-Brexit politics but am surprised to see the LDs so close behind in 2nd. It's a bit like visiting a place you knew 20 years ago and finding that it's been gentrified or bulldozed for a new development.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 3, 2024 18:02:57 GMT
Hello all! Just joined the forum. I am a Lib Dem community councillor in North Wales, and I am an artificial intelligence PhD student at Bangor. TLDR I spend too much time playing with election data etc. for my own good, so I felt inclined to join this forum as a consequence. Don't know what else to add, though I am happy to answer any questions (within reason, of course ) Welcome. If you ask BossMan he can mark you in yellow as a Lib Dem, we can do with all the intelligence going, artificial or otherwise.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 3, 2024 17:57:06 GMT
Westbury on Trym & Henleaze - 3 Ld (3 gains from Con) Bloody hell. Now that's come in, I recall I heard that was being worked quite hard
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Stroud
May 3, 2024 7:33:27 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on May 3, 2024 7:33:27 GMT
I can only speak for the v South of the District. Kingswood looks safe for LDs. I'd expect a bigger majority. WuE I'm not sure - I live in that ward, and gut says 2x Greens, 1 x (the excellent Linda Cohen) LD 3rd place in WuE is the big question for us locally. The edge might come down to North Nibley and Stinchcombe, where I expect the Tory vote to collapse and Lisa Carr has strong recognition. Kingswood is a walk in the park, our candidate is stronger than the one who got 59% last time and there's no significant opposition.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 2, 2024 18:23:46 GMT
An unusual polling station this morning - one station was run out of the back of a car for the start of the day at Milton Road Library polling station after polling staff were unable to get into the building. Can't quite match that, but there's one in Kingswood ward of Stroud District which is on private property (a barn). There's an open-air swimming pool next to it but I doubt anyone was tempted today.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 2, 2024 18:06:08 GMT
Nice seeing him scared shitless I guarantee you that tweet was planned days ago. "My message to voters: It's a shoe-in, I'd stay at home and have a cup of tea if I were you"
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 2, 2024 11:55:46 GMT
I can believe it's what people are reporting to YouGov - a lot of 2019 Tory voters will feel like they don't relate to the Conservatives now and are looking around for an alternative. When it comes to actual General Election day though, I expect most of those reporting a Reform preference now will either not vote or go back to the Conservatives. That was my default presumption, but I'm beginning to wonder. The sense of inevitability about a Labour government, plus discontent with the current Tories among people on the broad right, is such that I'm beginning to think a lot of people now saying Reform will either not vote or vote Reform, if there is a candidate. To say that we are on course for a 1997 result is no longer wild, it is what the polls have been saying very consistently for a long time now, and we are less than seven months (maximum) from a GE campaign. But in 1997 there was no Reform, UKIP was in its Alan Sked incarnation with less than 200 candidates. How many Tories then would have voted for a right-wing alternative if there had been one? Plenty, I think. Voting Conservative after all is not going to save the Party or keep Labour out, or even do much to hold Labour to account from opposition - for the sort of people already saying "Reform", sending a message to the Conservatives that they need your vote may be a better offer than casting a vote in a losing cause.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 30, 2024 12:18:21 GMT
The Tories have delivered us a local election leaflet telling us all about their candidates for Dursley ward. Problem is I live in Cam. And not even that close to the border Surely you have already decided to vote Labour? So this is a matter of zero consequence to you and alters nothing. It ought to be pleasing to see that a minion has fouled up for them? But it happens to every party every year in dozens of places. Calm down and save your irony for the big results. It's trivial in itself of course, but what EL and I are noting is that in a District where the Conservatives are the largest party, got 43% vote share in last election and have the incumbent MP (who in normal circs they should be busting a gut to defend, since it's a marginal seat with unhelpful boundary changes) the Tory campaign is virtually invisible, and when it does show up, incompetent. It's not that they made a tiny error, it's that in the entire campaign they've literally not done anything right, albeit largely because they've done done anything, period.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 30, 2024 10:56:13 GMT
Yesterday had large A3 Labour leaflet.
Best I've seen anywhere apart from our own, no stupid union jacks, lots of endorsements, very impressive big street map of the ward with every noted problem (potholes, dogshit etc) marked - whatever you think of Pointing At Potholes, it demonstrates an in-depth knowledge of the ward and willingness to literally get out and identify problems.
Couple of quite fierce digs at the Green Party, unjustified in my view (especially the claim that "Greens & Conservatives have led and failed in the council" when quite clearly there has been virtually no change in council policy or performance since Labour dropped out of the Co-Operative Alliance; cannier readers might ask themselves just why Labour did drop out of the Alliance; but TBF the Greens pretty much asked for it by trying to claim credit for everything the Alliance has ever done including the 6 years it was Labour led.
Momentary shock when a blue leaflet dropped through the door but turned out to be from the Indy PCC candidate, who appears be what students of politics refer to as A Fucking Nutter.
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Stroud
Apr 28, 2024 20:16:45 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 28, 2024 20:16:45 GMT
Yes I heard about that. Our final leaflets went round Wotton, Berkeley and Cam East today and we started in Cam West and Dursley as well. I'm pretty sure I saw a Tory leaflet in Can West, which just leaves East without one now Saw your Wotton leaflet and had a nice chat with Simon Opher.
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Stroud
Apr 28, 2024 19:28:15 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 28, 2024 19:28:15 GMT
Tory leaflet also delivered in Wotton-under-Edge.
Only one candidate promoted.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 28, 2024 10:18:48 GMT
Fine summary by iain. I would only add that the incumbent LD in Podsmead is a very good campaigner (it's not for nothing that he won it from 3rd place by three votes) and while it remains a three-way marginal I would say that, with the Tories being where they are and the CLP being where it is, I will be very disappointed if he is not returned this time out with maybe an increased majority.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 26, 2024 23:42:34 GMT
I knew they were delivering that. Is it the one with Simon Opher on the other side or a new one? Slight correction, we are fighting the Greens in Dursley, or rather a Green, but they are nowhere to be seen in Cam. Weirdly the Tories have done nothing anywhere but will still be our main challengers in this area, and might even get two seats. On Dursley, it's really Danae who's the threat rather than the Greens. I initially predicted she'd win a seat but I have seen no evidence that they're really making in impact. As I said before I think her vote will be hard to track but the longer the campaign goes on the more I start to think Dursley will return 3 Labour One-sided, blank on the back. The complete lack of action by the Tories is spooky because, as you say, you'd still expect them to be a significant vote share in many wards and win a fair few. Incidentally, I've not managed to find out who the Gail Fearnley-Whittingstall standing for them in Chalford is, but she is surely related to the celebrity chef - the family is local and Hugh's mother Jane (known to some of us as Chelsea Gold Medal winner and former gardening columnist for The Times) is a long-standing Lib Dem supporter and mate of Ken Tucker's. Google tells me that the Telegraph carried a Death Notice a couple of years ago for a George F-W who died aged 87 and whose funeral as in The Stanleys leaving a widow Gail. If that's the one it would suggest she's pretty elderly and perhaps a sign of some desperation to find candidates for the Tories but as George F-W was recorded as a grandfather it could be e.g. a granddaughter named after her.
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Stroud
Apr 25, 2024 20:03:24 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 25, 2024 20:03:24 GMT
Now had "blue letter" (not actually blue) from Labour.
Doesn't really seem to understand the point of blue letters in that it's pretty much just another leaflet, but reasonably persuasive on the merits of the candidate.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 24, 2024 18:31:12 GMT
Back to Stroud: Green Party tried to canvass while I was out, still nothing more from Labour.
It's a very odd election even by Stroud standards. As of now, the Conservatives are the largest single party on the council, having got 43% vote share in 2021 (and a shade under 40% in 2016). Normally at least half the contests are essentially Conservative vs A N Other.
Of course they're never big doorstep campaigners, they don't have to be, but they're virtually invisible apart from some PCC leafletting referencing the MP. Of course they are nationally in the doldrums, but how badly will that affect them locally? This time last year they got 32% in Painswick & Upton, so you could take that as the baseline in rural wards.
Meanwhile Labour are fighting the Greens in Stroud, and it seems in Dursley and Cam, while we are fighting the Greens in Wotton-under-Edge. Kingswood remains an old-fashioned Lib Dem v Conservative contest; I'm guessing that Coaley and Uley will still be a Green v Conservative one. With the Conservatives as challengers in both cases, you'd be surprised if they won this year. In an expected bad year for the Conservatives, with them holding a lot of seats, there are relatively few wards where there is a straight Tory Incumbent vs Obvious Challenger battle
(Exceptions would be the Green Party in Painswick & Upton and Labour in the Cam wards)
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Stroud
Apr 23, 2024 18:06:55 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 23, 2024 18:06:55 GMT
Those doorbells which link to the mobile phone were a bit of a shock to me when I first encountered one - someone replying to the ring to say that they weren't in puzzled me considerably for some minutes.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 23, 2024 18:04:04 GMT
What’s it like door knocking and how do you deal with it. Is there a dog/s? Is it at large in the garden? Does the bell work? Is there anyone in? Are they shift workers asleep? Is it a meal time? Am I interrupting a soap or a match on TV? Did I wake the baby? Where is the letter box? Has it got a kocker hanging over it? Does it have a strong spring flap and a stiff brush behind it? Is it a toe level? Is it vertical? Are there dog's teeth close behind it? Have I just dropped al the other leaflets in a puddle? Woden, I need a toilet? Will they ever stop talking? What should I say? Well are they for or against? What about other members of the household and voting? Is it safe to enter and drink their tea? Am I wasting more time? Is she/he serious about 'going upstairs'? Will this lead to front page of the Argus next week? An offer to join them for dinner and to stop working today? Another oral lambasting! A very detailed reason why the events of 1981 caused her to hate us! Can you help me move this grand piano? Do you still offer transport? Yes. What time on Polling Day? I mean down the shops now! Can you sit in and watch the kid while I go? It is a rich and eventful life on the knocker. In rural parts there is also the Find The Bloody Front Door challenge.
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Stroud
Apr 23, 2024 10:53:49 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 23, 2024 10:53:49 GMT
I do think though that there's a general tendency for Labour to not leaflet as much as some parties. We don't pay for delivery as often as the Tories do and lots of Labour people assume that at a certain point (seemingly the second leaflet if you ask some), you just start annoying people. Whilst LibDem targeting manifests itself as a lot of leaflets, Labour targeting usually involves a lot of canvassing We're keen on canvassing too - we were the first party to adopt a proper phone app to record it - but we do major on leaflets because they substitute for the media coverage that the Big Two get. I'm surprised not to have been canvassed by Labour, as I have been in the past, but I'm in a side street and you can't cover every house. Personally I thought the Labour candidate's cv appeared more impressive than the Green and if that's borne out I would expect canvassing to be effective
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Stroud
Apr 22, 2024 20:51:55 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 22, 2024 20:51:55 GMT
Have now just been sent a copy of what I imagine is the MP's letter that European Lefty refers to. Virtually no blue on it with one exception - big red top, presumably in tribute to The Sun, but making it look like a Labour leaflet a first glance; big chunk of Lib Dem yellow inside. The expenses limits for PCCs are vast so I suspect that they are using some of the Conservative Party's massive war chest to put out paid-for delivery to make up for lack of activist deliverers. Somewhat oddly, the only blue part is in a section contrasting the alleged Tory and Labour records on crime, which rather misses the point that the obvious challenger to the incumbent Tory PCC is the former PCC, previously independent now standing under Lib Dem colours, or just possibly the new independent, with the Labour PCC candidate quite clearly being unserious.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 22, 2024 20:38:41 GMT
The Greens are running an odd campaign in Dursley - mostly being ignored by the party while their main candidate and her partner do a bit of canvassing, but then they had a massive campaign day with Natalie Bennett. In truth it's more word of mouth and the like that will decide her vote rather than canvassing or leaflets - whilst our canvassing suggests they aren't much of a threat, it my not detect their true strength. Nevertheless, I'm not so sure about a Green gain now. Meanwhile, in Cam East I've had the MP's "leaflet disguised a newsletter" delivered by post, and another similar one that revolves entirely around policing, clearly meant to be for the PCC election. I know Berkeley Vale has had a local leaflet from them, but nobody in Cam East appears to have had anything about the locals (the other two don't even mention them). If they've given up on Cam East they're in real trouble - if they think it's guaranteed for them, that's quite complacent. Stroud branch have apparently thrown the kitchen sink at F&PHang on, is that Stroud Labour Party and Farmhill and Paganhill? That's my ward. Can't be much of a kitchen sink, I've had one (quite decent, but only A5) leaflet early in the campaign, no follow-up, and no canvassing. My daughter's at home most days so would know if they'd knocked, and I've not had an out-slip. Since we're not standing here I'm pretty up for voting for Labour tactically so I'm sort of hoping they call. I've actually had just as much from UKIP for their Town Council candidate as I've had from Labour. (Showed it to my daughter, who quite rightly said that the candidate's photo looked like a Police mugshot; my thought was of someone arrested for glassing someone in a pub.) There are now a decent number of Labour posters/boards around though I think the Green Party still have the edge across the District; I don't read too much into that. Two large leaflets from the Green Party, pretty much identical to all their other leaflets across the District but with the names changed. I wonder if their big day in Dursley with Natalie Bennett was some sort of "mutual aid" day out with people called in from neighbouring authorities without local elections (e.g. the Forest)? No sign of anything from the Tories, who are theoretically incumbents. I have heard vague rumours of the odd thing from Siobhain Baillie MP elsewhere in the District (down in the Severn Vale,) presumably same as you.
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