Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2012 8:01:13 GMT
Also BOURNEMOUTH - Littledown & Iford (Conservative resigned)2011 - Con 1865 / 1755 / 1743, Ind 802, Lab 575 / 512, LD 398 / 318 2007 - Con 1845 / 1648 / 1556, LD 645 / 623 / 493, Ind 358, Lab 246 / 209, BNP 223 |
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Post by marksenior on Oct 20, 2012 8:20:17 GMT
If Labour couldn't win the Watford seat in a 2010 by-election, I can't see them doing it now. I think things are very different now compared to 2010. labour fell further back in 2011 and even further back in May this year . |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 20, 2012 9:49:23 GMT
I think things are very different now compared to 2010. labour fell further back in 2011 and even further back in May this year . There were reasons for this May's result, one is reliably informed....... |
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Post by thirdchill on Oct 20, 2012 9:53:26 GMT
Hi greatkingrat, thanks for the list of by-elections.
Just one thing. The 2010 liverpool (knotty ash) results, the lab and LD labels need changing. Lab won the seat in 2010. Apologies for being a bit picky.
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Post by marksenior on Oct 20, 2012 11:30:23 GMT
labour fell further back in 2011 and even further back in May this year . There were reasons for this May's result, one is reliably informed....... and what were the excuses for 2011 ? |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 20, 2012 11:48:26 GMT
The LibDems targeted it following their two close calls in 2010??
Labour's results in Watford in 2011 were generally disappointing (given the general political climate) but they were distinctly better this year in terms of votes if not seats.
Nobody is saying that the LibDems can't win it again - simply that you can't rely on it. All we can really predict is that it will very likely be close (again)
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Post by marksenior on Oct 20, 2012 12:46:27 GMT
The LibDems targeted it following their two close calls in 2010?? Labour's results in Watford in 2011 were generally disappointing (given the general political climate) but they were distinctly better this year in terms of votes if not seats. Nobody is saying that the LibDems can't win it again - simply that you can't rely on it. All we can really predict is that it will very likely be close (again) Well Labour seem to have had to replace their candidate who stood in the last 3 elections in the ward , perhaps he realises the ward is not winnable . |
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,627 
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Post by Rural Radical on Oct 20, 2012 12:58:19 GMT
Is there a Lib Dem candidate for Herts Pcc?
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Post by marksenior on Oct 20, 2012 13:24:10 GMT
Is there a Lib Dem candidate for Herts Pcc? Yes |
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Oct 20, 2012 16:44:06 GMT
The LibDems targeted it following their two close calls in 2010?? Labour's results in Watford in 2011 were generally disappointing (given the general political climate) but they were distinctly better this year in terms of votes if not seats. Nobody is saying that the LibDems can't win it again - simply that you can't rely on it. All we can really predict is that it will very likely be close (again) Well Labour seem to have had to replace their candidate who stood in the last 3 elections in the ward , perhaps he realises the ward is not winnable . No, not at all. There are work reasons that prevent Fred continuing as the Labour candidate. Work also interfered drastically with Fred's ability to campaign effectively in the 2012 election, which explains why Labour appeared to be going backwards at that election. |
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 20, 2012 18:22:50 GMT
Interesting that the West Sussex CC, Midhurst by-election is a straight fight between Conservative and UKIP.
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Post by andrewteale on Oct 20, 2012 19:14:49 GMT
Interesting that the West Sussex CC, Midhurst by-election is a straight fight between Conservative and UKIP. It's not as if the other parties haven't had time to select a candidate  |
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Oct 20, 2012 21:49:27 GMT
That there would be clouds was not in doubt. The only question is will they be of the rain or snow variety? |
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Post by listener on Oct 21, 2012 0:32:09 GMT
The number of first preference votes in the Annandale North ward of Dumfries and Galloway on 3 May 2012 was:
Con 1,747, Lab 845, SNP 724, Green 615, Lib Dem 383 (Total 4,314)
In percentage terms this is
Con 40%, Lab 20%, SNP 17%, Green 14%, Lib Dem 9%.
Under new arrangements for the publication of information from electronic counts in Scotland, the Returning Officer published a detailed report of the first preferences by ballot box, aggregating smaller boxes to preserve the confidentiality of individual votes. This report enables us to calculate the overall result across five groups of polling districts as follows:
Kettleholm West, Hightae and Lockerbie polling districts
Con 375, Lab 257, SNP 175, Green 77, Lib Dem 135 (Total 1,019)
Con 37%, Lab 25%, SNP 17%, Green 8%, Lib Dem 13%
Lochmaben polling district
Con 234, Lab 151, SNP 108, Green 52, Lib Dem 61 (Total 606)
Con 39%, Lab 25%, SNP 18%, Green 9%, Lib Dem 10%
Applegarth, Nethermill and Johnstone polling districts
Con 136, Lab 26, SNP 56, Green 17, Lib Dem 14 (Total 249)
Con 55%, Lab 10%, SNP 22%, Green 7%, Lib Dem 6%
Beattock, Moffat and Wamphray polling districts
Con 322, Lab 145, SNP 167, Green 288, Lib Dem 44 (Total 966)
Con 33%, Lab 15%, SNP 17%, Green 30%, Lib Dem 5%
Postal Votes
Con 680, Lab 266, SNP 218, Green 181, Lib Dem 129 (Total 1,474)
Con 46%, Lab 18%, SNP 15%,, Green 12%, Lib Dem 9%
The detailed analysis shows
Conservatives are in the lead right across the ward and they appear to be particularly well-organised with postal votes
Labour are strongest in Lockerbie and Lochmaben
SNP support appears even across the ward
Greens are strongest in Moffat.
If the by-election is counted electronically, we will be able to calculate swings for each sub-group. Unfortunately in the case of the East Dunbartonshire by-election in Campsie and Kirkintilloch North, the count was manual and accordingly the Returning Officer did not publish a detailed breakdown for the by-election.
I have been ploughing through the 2012 results across Scotland to break them down by groups of polling districts and I am about half-way through. There are so many wards in the likes of Fife and Aberdeenshire, but it is fascinating to plot the results village by village.
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 21, 2012 8:20:53 GMT
It looks as though there are 35 local council by-elections on the 15th November, although 2 more were identified this week and 1 dropped off the list.
Conservatives defend 18 seats, 6 following a death and 12 after a resignation:
BATH & NORTH EAST SOMERSET UA,Chew Valley North - resigned
BOURNEMOUTH UA, Littledown & Iford - resigned
BRADFORD MB, Wharfedale - resigned
BURY MB, Church - resigned
BURY MB, North Manor - resigned
CENTRAL BEDFORDSHIRE UA, Biggleswade South - died
CENTRAL BEDFORDSHIRE UA, Silsoe & Shillington - resigned
CHILTERN DC, Central - resigned
DAVENTRY DC, Brixworth - died
EDEN DC, Penrith Pategill - resigned
HARROGATE BC, Rossett - resigned
NORTH HERTFORDSHIRE DC, Hitchwood, Offa & Hoo - died
NORTH HERTFORDSHIRE DC, Letchworth South East - resigned
POOLE UA, Branksome East - resigned
RYEDALE DC, Norton West - died
SWINDON UA, Blunsdon & Highworth - died
WEALDEN DC, Heathfield North & Central - died
WEST SUSSEX CC, Midhurst - resigned
Labour defend 13 seats, 3 following a death and 10 after a resignation
CHERWELL DC, Banbury Ruscote - resigned
DUMFRIES & GALLOWAY UA, Annandale North - died
HARLOW BC, Toddbrook - resigned
LIVERPOOL MB, Knotty Ash - resigned
MANCHESTER MB, Ardwick - died
MELTON BC, Egerton - resigned
NEWCASTLE-UPON-TYNE MB, Ouseburn - resigned
NORTH TYNESIDE MB, Wallsend - resigned
OLDHAM MB, Failsworth West - died
RUGBY BC, New Bilton - resigned
WALSALL MB, Bloxwich West - resigned
WAVENEY DC, Beccles South - resigned
WOLVERHAMPTON MB, Park - resigned
Liberal Democrats defend 2 seats, both after a resignation:
HAVANT BC, Battins - resigned
WATFORD BC, Central - resigned
Independents defend 2 seats, both after a resignation
CONWY BC, Deganwy - resigned
MERTHYR TYDFIL BC, Cyfarthfa - resigned
10 of the contests are for Metropolitan Boroughs, 6 in English Unitary Authorities, 15 in District Councils, 1 County Council, 2 Welsh Councils and 1 Scottish Council. All the Metropolitan Borough wards were contested in May this year along with the Welsh and Scottish seats, 1 of the Unitary wards and 8 of the District wards - a total of 22. The County Council seat was last contested in 2009 whilst the remaining 12 wards were last contested in 2011.
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Oct 21, 2012 11:32:37 GMT
If the by-election is counted electronically, we will be able to calculate swings for each sub-group. Unfortunately in the case of the East Dunbartonshire by-election in Campsie and Kirkintilloch North, the count was manual and accordingly the Returning Officer did not publish a detailed breakdown for the by-election. It's going to be a manual count here too. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Oct 21, 2012 11:39:49 GMT
If the by-election is counted electronically, we will be able to calculate swings for each sub-group. Unfortunately in the case of the East Dunbartonshire by-election in Campsie and Kirkintilloch North, the count was manual and accordingly the Returning Officer did not publish a detailed breakdown for the by-election. It's going to be a manual count here too. Since Scottish local by-elections are effectively held by an AV vote, they are quite simple to count manually. That being said, they are occasionally counted electronically. When I was Green agent for the East Kilbride West by-election, there was an electronic count and we all got given nice printouts of the result on the way out of the count. I think the choice to use electronic counting there though was more of a test run for the new equipment rather than anything else. |
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Post by andrewteale on Oct 21, 2012 12:11:09 GMT
The number of first preference votes in the Annandale North ward of Dumfries and Galloway on 3 May 2012 was: Con 1,747, Lab 845, SNP 724, Green 615, Lib Dem 383 (Total 4,314) In percentage terms this is Con 40%, Lab 20%, SNP 17%, Green 14%, Lib Dem 9%. Under new arrangements for the publication of information from electronic counts in Scotland, the Returning Officer published a detailed report of the first preferences by ballot box, aggregating smaller boxes to preserve the confidentiality of individual votes. This report enables us to calculate the overall result across five groups of polling districts as follows: Kettleholm West, Hightae and Lockerbie polling districts Con 375, Lab 257, SNP 175, Green 77, Lib Dem 135 (Total 1,019) Con 37%, Lab 25%, SNP 17%, Green 8%, Lib Dem 13% Lochmaben polling district Con 234, Lab 151, SNP 108, Green 52, Lib Dem 61 (Total 606) Con 39%, Lab 25%, SNP 18%, Green 9%, Lib Dem 10% Applegarth, Nethermill and Johnstone polling districts Con 136, Lab 26, SNP 56, Green 17, Lib Dem 14 (Total 249) Con 55%, Lab 10%, SNP 22%, Green 7%, Lib Dem 6% Beattock, Moffat and Wamphray polling districts Con 322, Lab 145, SNP 167, Green 288, Lib Dem 44 (Total 966) Con 33%, Lab 15%, SNP 17%, Green 30%, Lib Dem 5% Postal Votes Con 680, Lab 266, SNP 218, Green 181, Lib Dem 129 (Total 1,474) Con 46%, Lab 18%, SNP 15%,, Green 12%, Lib Dem 9% The detailed analysis shows Conservatives are in the lead right across the ward and they appear to be particularly well-organised with postal votes Labour are strongest in Lockerbie and Lochmaben SNP support appears even across the ward Greens are strongest in Moffat. A quick look at the SOPN explains some of those patterns. The Green candidate lived in Moffat; the Labour and Lib Dem candidates were from Lockerbie; the Conservatives put up two candidates from villages near Lockerbie and one from Lochmaben; the SNP candidate was from Dumfries. |
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Post by listener on Oct 21, 2012 13:22:21 GMT
Interesting that there appears to be an element of voting for the candidate you know, rather than the party you prefer, in a rural ward spread across several distinct towns and villages.
The Returning Officer at East Dunbartonshire told me that manual voting was significantly cheaper than electronic voting.
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Post by notabrummie on Oct 22, 2012 16:45:01 GMT
Bury Candidates
Church
•Stephen Evans (UK Independence Party)
•Kamran Islam (Liberal Democrats)
•Sarah Kerrison (The Labour Party)
•Susan Nuttall (The Conservative Party)
North Manor
•Ewan Arthur (Liberal Democrats)
•James Daly (The Conservative Party)
•Peter Entwistle (UK Independence Party)
•Stewart Hay (Green Party)
•Jean Treadgold (The Labour Party)
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