maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312 
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Post by maxque on Apr 6, 2017 22:43:02 GMT
Walcot, Bath&NES
LD 750 (48.6%; +11.2)
Grn 343 (22.2%; +0.4)
Con 339 (22.0%; -0.5)
Lab 111 (7.2%; -7.4)
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 6, 2017 22:43:39 GMT
AYLESBURY VALE Elmhurst
Susan MORGAN (Liberal Democrat) 785
Gary PAXTON (Labour Party) 151
Ammer RAHEEL (Conservative Party Candidate) 147
Phil GOMM (UKIP) 111
Nigel FOSTER (Green Party candidate) 43
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,766
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Post by mboy on Apr 6, 2017 22:45:45 GMT
^ lol  Nailed it. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 6, 2017 22:46:02 GMT
Clean sweep for the herd of predictors, I think
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
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Post by maxque on Apr 6, 2017 22:47:12 GMT
AYLESBURY VALE Elmhurst Susan MORGAN (Liberal Democrat) 785 Gary PAXTON (Labour Party) 151 Ammer RAHEEL (Conservative Party Candidate) 147 Phil GOMM (UKIP) 111 Nigel FOSTER (Green Party candidate) 43 LD 63.5% (+37.9) Lab 12.2% (-10.0) Con 11.9% (-9.3) UKIP 9.0% (-14.4) Grn 3.5% (-4.2) |
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,766
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Post by mboy on Apr 6, 2017 22:49:59 GMT
Walcot, Bath&NES LD 750 (48.6%; +11.2) Grn 343 (22.2%; +0.4) Con 339 (22.0%; -0.5) Lab 111 (7.2%; -7.4) Your % changes are wrong according to BE: Because of the dual member issue? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 6, 2017 22:51:08 GMT
Apart from Aylesbury I'm pretty happy with those results. Must have got more faults for that than all the others put together but most of us will have got a lot of faults there
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2017 22:57:37 GMT
Walcot, Bath&NES LD 750 (48.6%; +11.2) Grn 343 (22.2%; +0.4) Con 339 (22.0%; -0.5) Lab 111 (7.2%; -7.4) Your % changes are wrong according to BE: Because of the dual member issue? It turns out it was BE who were wrong on this; they've just said so. |
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Post by froome on Apr 6, 2017 23:20:48 GMT
Walcot, Bath&NES LD 750 (48.6%; +11.2) Grn 343 (22.2%; +0.4) Con 339 (22.0%; -0.5) Lab 111 (7.2%; -7.4) Just back from the count. All 4 parties were surprised at the scale of the Lib Dem win, but obviously their squeeze message eventually told. I'm pleased we came in second though. |
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on Apr 6, 2017 23:45:32 GMT
All 11 entrants in the prediction thread agree the overall results on all 4 contests, so 1 Tory hold and 1~ gain, I LibDem hold and 1 gain, 2 ukip losses -so that must be right, don't you think?  Nonsense, all 4 Byelections will be won by a revived Labour party under the leadership of Comrade Jeremy. It is becoming clear to the lumpen proletariat, that they will only truly be free of their chains when they cast aside their... Sorry, I've just been reading some comments on " Labour List "  The battle for these seats begins now! |
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Post by ideal4radio on Apr 6, 2017 23:49:25 GMT
Based on byelection results since the turn of the year, Lib Dems recovering strongly in their traditional areas, & picking up their former " protest " vote. UKIP declining at a rate of knots where they're not organised. Labour tanking outside the big cities, and the Tories, whilst getting votes back from UKIP in south, are leaking votes to Lib/Dems in Remain areas, London,S/West etc...
2013 Local Elections saw the L/D's at a low point, should be fascinating to see how they've recovered and at who's expense..
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Post by ideal4radio on Apr 6, 2017 23:57:03 GMT
Nonsense, all 4 Byelections will be won by a revived Labour party under the leadership of Comrade Jeremy. It is becoming clear to the lumpen proletariat, that they will only truly be free of their chains when they cast aside their... Sorry, I've just been reading some comments on " Labour List " The battle for these seats begins now! Indeed ! " Go back to your Constituencies, and prepare for...... a rather pleasing improvement on our 2013 position, it is from here that we will attempt to build a strong local force in British politics, to prepare ourselves for next year, and the battles beyond ! " |
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 7, 2017 7:01:24 GMT
I am still boggling at Aylesbury- Lib Dem gain from UKIP,remember, finishing a mere 54.5% ahead of them! I would not have dared predict that!
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 7, 2017 8:11:55 GMT
indeed I didn't-looking more closely I think I was bottom of the class as far as Aylesbury was concerned. Nice mistake to make though.
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
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Post by Terry Weldon on Apr 7, 2017 13:21:07 GMT
I spent the afternoon in sunny Elmhurst ward in Aylesbury yesterday. Lib Dems hopeful, main challenge does seem to be from UKIP rather than the Tories. Little evidence of the election, if I hadn't been there for political reasons I wouldn't have guessed there was an election on. The Lib Dem team seemed very well organised. Of course if it's a Lib Dem win I'll claim the credit, if not then I clearly wasn't there for long enough! Well done to you, then. You must have worked damn hard, to get a result like this. (All in one afternoon, too). |
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Post by froome on Apr 7, 2017 15:24:49 GMT
Walcot, Bath&NES LD 750 (48.6%; +11.2) Grn 343 (22.2%; +0.4) Con 339 (22.0%; -0.5) Lab 111 (7.2%; -7.4) I've seen claims on Facebook that there are 200 Labour members in this ward. No idea whether that's true or not. I have heard that, and suspect it is true, as the constituency party claim to have 1,300 members, and Walcot is the type of ward which will house many people who were attracted by the idea of a Corbyn leadership. I'm sure that a few Labour members will have voted Green, but it is pretty poor not to at least matched your membership with your vote. And Labour did run a quite active campaign, leafleting the whole ward at least twice and running a fairly comprehensive operation on polling day. And with an office to run it all from close to the edge of the ward. |
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,766
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Post by mboy on Apr 7, 2017 15:40:18 GMT
The fact that all 4 parties fought the by-election quite hard makes the scale of the LD victory quite impressive. This should have clear implications for the West of England Mayoral election currently going on in the same area...
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Post by tonygreaves on Apr 7, 2017 19:52:09 GMT
A lot of post-GE Labour members are voting LD in local by-elections were we are strong. All a bit weird really.
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Post by middleenglander on Apr 8, 2017 9:16:15 GMT
Aylesbury Vale, Elmhurst - Liberal Democrat gain from UKIP| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 785 | 63.5% | +37.9% | +37.0% | Labour | 151 | 12.2% | -10.0% | -9.8% | Conservative | 147 | 11.9% | -9.3% | -9.2% | UKIP | 111 | 9.0% | -14.4% | -14.7% | Green | 43 | 3.5% | -4.2% | -3.3% | Total votes | 1,237 |
| 43% | 47% |
Swing, if meaningful, UKIP to Liberal Democrat ~26% since 2015
Council now 42 Conservative, 9 Liberal Democrat, 3 UKIP, 2 Labour, 2 Independent, 1 Vacant
Bath & North East Somerset, Walcot - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 750 | 48.6% | +11.2% | +15.9% | +9.9% | +11.9% | Green | 343 | 22.2% | +0.4% | -1.8% | -3.3% | -4.7% | Conservative | 339 | 22.0% | -0.5% | -1.3% | +6.4% | +7.0% | Labour | 111 | 7.2% | -7.4% | -8.6% | -13.1% | -14.2% | Independent |
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| -3.7% | -4.1% |
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| Total votes | 1,543 |
| 44% | 48% | 52% | 55% |
Swing Green to Liberal Democrat ~5½% / 8¾% since 2015 and ~6½% / 8¼% since 2011
- with Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~5¾% / 8½% since 2015 but 1¾% / 2½% since 2011
Council now 37 Conservative, 15 Liberal Democrat, 6 Labour, 3 Independent, 2 Residents, 1 Green, 1 Vacant
Calderdale, Hipperholme & Lightcliffe - Conservative hold
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | | Conservative | 1,483 | 60.3% | -4.3% | -3.1% | +33.4% | +17.4% | Liberal Democrat | 420 | 17.1% | +6.8% | +9.3% | +13.9% | +13.6% | Labour | 407 | 16.5% | -0.5% | -4.0% | +3.1% | -6.9% | Green | 150 | 6.1% | -2.0% | -2.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Councillor |
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| -56.4% |
| Independent 2 |
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| -30.2% | Total votes | 2,460 |
| 80% | 40% | 75% | 80% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~2% since 2016 but Labour to Conservative ~½% since 2015
- along with Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~5½% since 2016 and 6¼% since 2015
Council now 23 Labour, 21 Conservative, 5 Liberal Democrat, 2 Independent
Tendring, St James - Conservative gain from UIKIP, sitting as Coastal Independent
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2013 B | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 371 | 47.9% | +12.7% | +12.3% | -2.0% | -4.5% | -6.9% | UKIP | 174 | 22.5% | -16.3% | -14.3% | +0.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 116 | 15.0% | -1.0% | -2.0% | -0.1% | -2.5% | -2.1% | Liberal Democrat | 99 | 12.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +8.9% | +7.4% | +8.2% | Green | 15 | 1.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | -4.0% | -4.5% | Independent |
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| -10.1% | -10.7% |
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| Tendring First |
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| -9.2% | -18.9% | -17.2% | Total votes | 775 |
| 32% | 34% | 87% | 53% | 57% |
Swing UKIP to Conservative 14½% / 13¼% since 2015 but Conservative to UKIP ~1¼% since 2013 by-election Council now 28 Conservative, 13 UKIP, 5 Labour, 5 Independent, 3 Residents, 3 Non-Aligned, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 English Democrat, 1 Tendring First
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 8, 2017 21:12:12 GMT
Based on byelection results since the turn of the year, Lib Dems recovering strongly in their traditional areas, & picking up their former " protest " vote. UKIP declining at a rate of knots where they're not organised. Labour tanking outside the big cities, and the Tories, whilst getting votes back from UKIP in south, are leaking votes to Lib/Dems in Remain areas, London,S/West etc... 2013 Local Elections saw the L/D's at a low point, should be fascinating to see how they've recovered and at who's expense.. Which would be most of the UK wouldn't it? |
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