Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2017 12:24:45 GMT
Now is the time for a challenge, not a give him till Christmas etc.
A half decent candidate would see him off.
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Post by andrew111 on Feb 24, 2017 12:24:48 GMT
Then Southport and (at a push) North Norfolk may well go the other way. My instinct is that the limited Labour vote that exists in Bath would be attracted to Corbyn. Maybe, but they are probably also pretty Remainy.. In 2015 the Labour vote went up 6% and the Green vote 10%, which is why the Tories won... (well, the Tory vote went up 7% as well, which was actually as I recall quite unusual in SW seats and probably connected with loss of incumbency |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 24, 2017 12:27:25 GMT
So all those people who never vote because they apparently want a more left-wing alternative: what happened to them?
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 24, 2017 12:27:26 GMT
 Right I'm up for coop MK2, Corbyn MUST GO What? Retiring from politics to keep chickens? You're a closet green aren't you Benji?  |
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Post by andrew111 on Feb 24, 2017 12:29:06 GMT
I woupd think the LD's would be disappointed with these two. Although the vote increased in both; surely a minimum 10% would be their base line? I thought both results were disappointing... Brave face being put on it.. but comparatives to 2010 don't look good. Copeland should have had some proximity effect from the Farron epicentre of power(particularly up-country). What about the Remainers? We seemed to get only 25% of the Remainer vote unless Remainers stayed home. In 2010 there was (virtually) no UKIP and the Lib Dems were on over 20% in the polls. I think it is pretty impatient to expect more than the national % in seats that polled well below the national % in 2015, and where the Lib Dems were the 4th horse in a two horse race.. Stoke in particular was a hiding to nothing as the anti-UKIP vote coalesced around Labour |
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Post by mrpastelito on Feb 24, 2017 12:29:55 GMT
I should add that the seats that the Lib Dems could win or move back into a strong second if there were a GE tomorrow are places with bigger Labour/Green votes than UKIP votes in 2015. My list for England and Wales (they stand a good chance in NE Fife and Edinburgh West as well) Bath Twickenham Kingston Colchester Cheadle Portsmouth S Brecon and Radnor Hazel Grove Lewes and Eastbourne they are close enough to have a chance too Plus they should beat Labour in Cambridge and have a chance in Cardiff Central, Burnley and Bermondsey Hm.. I'm not convinced. St Ives maybe. EDIT: Agree on the Scottish seats though - on current boundaries. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,931
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 24, 2017 12:31:11 GMT
So all those people who never vote because they apparently want a more left-wing alternative: what happened to them? They're still not voting, mostly. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 24, 2017 12:37:12 GMT
So all those people who never vote because they apparently want a more left-wing alternative: what happened to them? They're still not voting, mostly. As we all suspected. I remember one or two posters on here,who mainly don't post any more, being convinced of such a concept. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 24, 2017 12:37:55 GMT
On LD gains. I suspect Cheadle will go Lib but Hazel Grove will stay Tory.
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Feb 24, 2017 12:41:28 GMT
Come now! Even a loony Labour voter such as yourself must take immense pleasure in the thought of Alex Salmond and Angus Robertson losing their constituencies to Conservatives in 2020! Can't beat it. Clouds and silver linings...  |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Feb 24, 2017 12:49:39 GMT
<img src="//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/superangry.png" alt=" " class="smile" contenteditable="false" text=" " ![]() Right I'm up for coop MK2, Corbyn MUST GO What? Retiring from politics to keep chickens? You're a closet green aren't you Benji? Are you egging him on now? |
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Post by andrew111 on Feb 24, 2017 12:53:48 GMT
I should add that the seats that the Lib Dems could win or move back into a strong second if there were a GE tomorrow are places with bigger Labour/Green votes than UKIP votes in 2015. My list for England and Wales (they stand a good chance in NE Fife and Edinburgh West as well) Bath Twickenham Kingston Colchester Cheadle Portsmouth S Brecon and Radnor Hazel Grove Lewes and Eastbourne they are close enough to have a chance too Plus they should beat Labour in Cambridge and have a chance in Cardiff Central, Burnley and Bermondsey I rate Eastbourne a better chance than most on your list. I don't see Colchester or Brecon being at all easy. I was careful to say "or move into a strong second". Most of those seats need further improvement in the LD poll rating for them actually to win. I was trying to classify Con-LD seats in terms of 3rd party squeeze.. (which does inevitably correlate somewhat with Leave vs Remain, since the UKIP votes were almost always higher in Leave seats) |
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 24, 2017 12:55:49 GMT
Just watched the Neil interview of Lavery on the Daily Politics. It was a complete crucifixion. One of the most enjoyable watches on TV this year. I laughed and shouted so much my face was streaming with tears. Delicious to see the sanctimonious, waffling little shit bag in such extreme discomfort. hugely enjoyable.
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 24, 2017 13:03:31 GMT
Then on the Daily Politics we had Diane James giving a sensible and measured response as a now independent because UKIP could not put up a spokesman. She did well in utter contrast to the bluster and waffle of Nuttall. I voted James and rate her miles above Nuttall. Her demise and the election of Nuttall encapsulate my transition to Conservative. Many like me cannot stomach a vacuous windbag and possible fantasist like Nuttall (I voted Evans) and it was only a matter of time before I left. All over the south I imagine hundreds of thousands are doing the same? I doubt he is that popular in the north either. I think it may be over now? Events and severe back-tracking by May on a hard Brexit are the only hope for UKIP.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2017 13:23:04 GMT
Just watched the Neil interview of Lavery on the Daily Politics. It was a complete crucifixion. One of the most enjoyable watches on TV this year. I laughed and shouted so much my face was streaming with tears. Delicious to see the sanctimonious, waffling little shit bag in such extreme discomfort. hugely enjoyable. The more able of Northumberlands 2 Labour MPs... |
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Post by mrpastelito on Feb 24, 2017 13:23:13 GMT
Events and severe back-tracking by May on a hard Brexit are the only hope for UKIP. Quite so. |
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Post by johnloony on Feb 24, 2017 13:23:40 GMT
The result as it would have been in Stoke on Trent Central, if it had had the swing which happened in Copeland:
Lab 7,280
Con 6,563
UKIP 2,891
LD 1,686
Green 486
The result as it would have been in Copeland, if it had had the swing which happened in Stoke on Trent Central:
Lab 12,441
Con 11,680
UKIP 5,462
LD 2,834
Green 233
I'm glad that Stoke was declared first, because if Copeland had been declared first then it would have raised expectations about Stoke and it would have seemed a bigger disappointment than it was (Conervative staying in 3rd place).
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 24, 2017 13:26:25 GMT
What? Retiring from politics to keep chickens? You're a closet green aren't you Benji? Are you egging him on now? i think we did all the chicken jokes only very recently, so i will refrain. But the yolk is on you.... damn, damn, damn.... |
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 24, 2017 13:26:55 GMT
Just heard the shadow chancellor on the radio. Apparently Labour failed to "break through" in Copeland because of "exceptional circumstances". He being an actual exceptional circumstance himself. but not in a good way. |
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Post by Antiochian on Feb 24, 2017 13:31:28 GMT
I thought both results were disappointing... Brave face being put on it.. but comparatives to 2010 don't look good. Copeland should have had some proximity effect from the Farron epicentre of power(particularly up-country). What about the Remainers? We seemed to get only 25% of the Remainer vote unless Remainers stayed home. In 2010 there was (virtually) no UKIP and the Lib Dems were on over 20% in the polls. I think it is pretty impatient to expect more than the national % in seats that polled well below the national % in 2015, and where the Lib Dems were the 4th horse in a two horse race.. Stoke in particular was a hiding to nothing as the anti-UKIP vote coalesced around Labour And where was Remainer outrage expressed in either of these votes?? Certainly not in the Stoke turnout... |
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Right I'm up for coop MK2, Corbyn MUST GO 
