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Post by finsobruce on Feb 24, 2017 11:12:26 GMT
Turnout in Charterlands is an unepectedly high 46.5%. Come on Dave Trigger! Well he didn't finish last... |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312 
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Post by maxque on Feb 24, 2017 11:46:52 GMT
Yeah, in December Mark missed at least an LD gain that others had forecasted.
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Post by mrpastelito on Feb 24, 2017 12:48:59 GMT
Yeh where's marksenior when you need someone to flag improbable gains? They're now so improbable even he doesnt see them  To be fair Mark has become fairly conservative in his actual predictions. I don't see any thing improbable about the gain South Hams - this is the classic area where the Lib Dems have challenged the Tories historically and the Lib Dem candidate was the only one to live in the ward and was a local parish councillor. And I think most of us in the prediction competetion did predict this outcome - Kettering obviously a different matter Might well be irrelevant, but it should be noted South Hams was one of the few districts in the SW to vote Remain, 53-47. |
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Post by bigfatron on Feb 24, 2017 12:58:06 GMT
AntiochianI guess the alternate argument to that is that 2013 locals were pretty bad for the Tories (and good for Labour) so they are coming into them from a low base. I'm torn between expecting large scale Tory losses in May based on their current local government performance, and thinking they will make some serious gains off Labour, based on the national VI. It reminds me of Thatcher being in power in the late eighties when the Tories were hammering local government finances and powers; they kept winning GEs but their councillor base was badly damaged and fell out of step with what their national VI would imply.
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 24, 2017 13:11:15 GMT
Yeh where's marksenior when you need someone to flag improbable gains? They're now so improbable even he doesnt see them To be fair Mark has become fairly conservative in his actual predictions. I don't see any thing improbable about the gain South Hams - this is the classic area where the Lib Dems have challenged the Tories historically and the Lib Dem candidate was the only one to live in the ward and was a local parish councillor. And I think most of us in the prediction competetion did predict this outcome - Kettering obviously a different matter Maybe Mark recently has erred on the side of caution given the scale of the LibDem upswing but I would not accept "fairly conservative". That's an awful accusation. |
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Post by Antiochian on Feb 24, 2017 13:42:50 GMT
Antiochian I guess the alternate argument to that is that 2013 locals were pretty bad for the Tories (and good for Labour) so they are coming into them from a low base. I'm torn between expecting large scale Tory losses in May based on their current local government performance, and thinking they will make some serious gains off Labour, based on the national VI. It reminds me of Thatcher being in power in the late eighties when the Tories were hammering local government finances and powers; they kept winning GEs but their councillor base was badly damaged and fell out of step with what their national VI would imply. I think you are right.. It is the late 80s that are the best analogy. Load 'em up into the tumbrels and send them off to the chopper... The fate of Greens will also be interesting to watch.. UKIP is a chronicle of a death foretold in many places also. Tories have been doing particularly badly in by-elections in the Southwest.. this should be accentuated in the Cornwall results.. |
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Post by mrpastelito on Feb 24, 2017 13:59:39 GMT
Maybe Mark recently has erred on the side of caution given the scale of the LibDem upswing but I would not accept "fairly conservative". That's an awful accusation. Yes in fairness he has always been fairly libdem, not conservative. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,979
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 24, 2017 14:46:57 GMT
Nonetheless, you still lost 15% of the vote. Presumably it was previously coming from Lib Dem voters who had nobody to vote for last time rather than a firm Green vote? Presumably yes (I have no local knowledge myself). It probably also points to the importance of local candidates in rural wards like this. Isn't this neilm territory? I think it was (rather than is) |
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Post by marksenior on Feb 24, 2017 15:21:02 GMT
All I can say in my defence is that the Lib Dems had never even come close before in Charterlands and contrary to the impression some people have of my I always try and be realistic in my forecasts .
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tcpb
Conservative
Libertarian
Posts: 27
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Post by tcpb on Feb 24, 2017 15:27:53 GMT
Antiochian I guess the alternate argument to that is that 2013 locals were pretty bad for the Tories (and good for Labour) so they are coming into them from a low base. I'm torn between expecting large scale Tory losses in May based on their current local government performance, and thinking they will make some serious gains off Labour, based on the national VI. It reminds me of Thatcher being in power in the late eighties when the Tories were hammering local government finances and powers; they kept winning GEs but their councillor base was badly damaged and fell out of step with what their national VI would imply. I think you are right.. It is the late 80s that are the best analogy. Load 'em up into the tumbrels and send them off to the chopper... The fate of Greens will also be interesting to watch.. UKIP is a chronicle of a death foretold in many places also. Tories have been doing particularly badly in by-elections in the Southwest.. this should be accentuated in the Cornwall results.. |
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tcpb
Conservative
Libertarian
Posts: 27
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Post by tcpb on Feb 24, 2017 15:32:19 GMT
FWIW The biggest losses of Conservative cllrs were in the 7 years under Major 1990 to 1997 with 5,000 cllrs. Thatchers years lost 3,500.
Labour only gained power when they fought a GE with >40% of the cllr base, which was in 97 (and 1974).
Currently AFAIK, Labour have just circa 32% of cllrs and falling.
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Post by marksenior on Feb 24, 2017 15:44:42 GMT
FWIW The biggest losses of Conservative cllrs were in the 7 years under Major 1990 to 1997 with 5,000 cllrs. Thatchers years lost 3,500. Labour only gained power when they fought a GE with >40% of the cllr base, which was in 97 (and 1974). Currently AFAIK, Labour have just circa 32% of cllrs and falling. Other things to note are that there are circa 15% ( I have not checked the figures ) fewer councillors now than in the 1990s mostly due to the creation of Unitaries ; also the elections are becoming more concentrated in one year , 2015/2019 etc as fewer councils are holding annual elections although London years 2014/2018 etc are also higher than average . |
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tcpb
Conservative
Libertarian
Posts: 27
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Post by tcpb on Feb 24, 2017 17:13:36 GMT
Yes Mark it has dropped mainly due to unitaries. A drop of 5,000 since 1979, a 20% drop. Since 1996 it is down AFAIK 10% to circa 20,500 today.
Changes of power have only happened when the challenging main party reached 40% of cllrs(at the GE), since at least 1974.
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Post by tonygreaves on Feb 24, 2017 19:51:12 GMT
Still slack water. (But some big waves arriving from various directions...) I don't know when was the last time we won a seat at Kettering.
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Post by Antiochian on Feb 24, 2017 19:53:54 GMT
Still slack water. (But some big waves arriving from various directions...) I don't know when was the last time we won a seat at Kettering. Slack water with big waves?!? Good scenario for a perfect storm... |
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Post by mattb on Feb 24, 2017 20:59:49 GMT
Still slack water. (But some big waves arriving from various directions...) I don't know when was the last time we won a seat at Kettering. 1999 I think |
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 25, 2017 12:49:46 GMT
Basingstoke & Deane - Labour gain from Conservative
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2011 | since 2010 | Labour | 824 | 61.6% | +31.1% | +24.5% | +16.8% | +30.8% | Conservative | 472 | 35.3% | -10.5% | -4.1% | -14.6% | -15.3% | Liberal Democrat | 42 | 3.1% | -2.7% | +0.7% | -2.2% | -12.4% | UKIP |
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| -17.9% | -21.1% |
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| Community |
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| -3.1% | Total votes | 1,338 |
| 44% | 72% | 67% | 43% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~ 20¾% since 2015, 14¼% since 2014, 15¾% since 2011 and 23% since 2010 Council now 32 Conservative, 20 Labour, 6 Liberal Democrat, 2 Independent
Epping Forest, Chigwell Village - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 | since 2014 | since 2012 | since 2010 | | Conservative | 453 | 76.0% | +1.0% | +13.6% | +12.3% | +3.9% | Liberal Democrat | 143 | 24.0% | from nowhere | +20.5% | +21.6% | +4.2% | Green |
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| -12.5% | -5.8% | -5.0% | -8.1% | Labour |
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| -12.4% | -11.3% | -10.1% |
| UKIP |
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| -17.1% | -18.8% |
| Total votes | 596 |
| 60% | 55% | 65% | 27% |
Swing not particularly meaningful
Council now 35 Conservative, 13 Residents, 3 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent, 2 Green, 2 UKIP
Kettering, Barton - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative sitting as Independent
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 644 | 57.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 337 | 29.8% | -19.3% | -17.3% | -33.9% | -35.3% | UKIP | 106 | 9.4% | -14.0% | -15.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 42 | 3.7% | -3.5% | -4.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour |
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| -20.2% | -20.1% | -36.3% | -34.9% | Total votes | 1,129 |
| 33% | 36% | 66% | 68% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 26 Conservative, 7 Labour, 2 Independent, 1 Liberal Democrat South Hams, Charterlands - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 | | Liberal Democrat | 473 | 46.1% | from nowhere | Conservative | 404 | 39.3% | -25.0% | Labour | 110 | 10.7% | from nowhere | Green | 40 | 3.9% | -15.6% | | Independent | | | -16.2% | | Total votes | 1,027 | | 61% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 24 Conservative, 5 Liberal Democrat, 2 Green
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