|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Feb 16, 2017 20:36:05 GMT
I think the only surprise I can see from my home borough is that Selhurst voted Leave. Other then that Croydon is pretty much as expected. The two Norwood wards and Thornton Heath ward had tte largest Remain votes and the two New Addington wards had the highest leave votes. While Selhurst may be a slight surprise, it was once upon a time a hive of Far-Right activity (the NF once had its party headquaters in or around the old Whitehorse Manor ward). Interestlingly, Nick Griffin stood as a candidate in Whitehorse Manor in his first ever election outing in the late '70s... he came nowhere near winning Pedant warning: Nick Griffin was born in 1959 so wouldn't that have meant he couldn't have stood until 1980 when he was 21. |
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Feb 17, 2017 0:06:38 GMT
In some particular boroughs, it is definitely worth comparing Remain/Leave votes and the general psephological patterns of said ward; it shows how divided many council areas are.
Hounslow is a good example. Out to the west, Feltham (North and West) produced the highest Leave vote shares with nearly 2/3 voting to Leave (according to the spreadsheet's estimations); both seats elected full slates of Labour councillors in 2014 but UKIP were not far behind. The three Chiswick wards (Homefields, Riverside, and Turnham Green) all voted >70% to Remain and were the only 3 wards in Hounslow to elect full Conservative slates in 2014, and have overall the best Green prospects to boot.
Birmingham is even more stark, with Shard End voting Leave 75.6-24.4 and Moseley & King's Heath voting Remain 77-23. Places with a more independent character traditionally were also more likely to vote Leave irrespective of political make-up, as Sutton Coldfield shows in this Excel file (it overall voted Leave as a town despite being very prosperous). The closer a city ward is to the centre, the more pro-Remain it was, usually.
|
|
wallington
Green
The Pride of Croydon 2022 award winner
Posts: 1,322 
|
Post by wallington on Feb 17, 2017 7:00:53 GMT
I think the only surprise I can see from my home borough is that Selhurst voted Leave. Other then that Croydon is pretty much as expected. The two Norwood wards and Thornton Heath ward had tte largest Remain votes and the two New Addington wards had the highest leave votes. While Selhurst may be a slight surprise, it was once upon a time a hive of Far-Right activity (the NF once had its party headquaters in or around the old Whitehorse Manor ward). Interestlingly, Nick Griffin stood as a candidate in Whitehorse Manor in his first ever election outing in the late '70s... he came nowhere near winning Pedant warning: Nick Griffin was born in 1959 so wouldn't that have meant he couldn't have stood until 1980 when he was 21. Yes, you're correct! It was 1982. He got 50 votes. |
|
|
|
Post by londonseal80 on Feb 20, 2017 20:40:46 GMT
I think the only surprise I can see from my home borough is that Selhurst voted Leave. Other then that Croydon is pretty much as expected. The two Norwood wards and Thornton Heath ward had tte largest Remain votes and the two New Addington wards had the highest leave votes. While Selhurst may be a slight surprise, it was once upon a time a hive of Far-Right activity (the NF once had its party headquaters in or around the old Whitehorse Manor ward). Interestlingly, Nick Griffin stood as a candidate in Whitehorse Manor in his first ever election outing in the late '70s... he came nowhere near winning Selhurst was surprising, I actually would have expected Waddon and Addiscombe wards to vote leave ahead of that ward. |
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Mar 3, 2017 3:37:58 GMT
I should have done this ages ago but didn't due to laziness. Analysing the referendum prediction formula spreadsheet in detail, it turns out it gave the following results: England: Counting areas: 326 Correct formula prediction: 289 = 88.7%. Incorrect formula prediction: 37 = 11.3%. The formula gave 314 out of 326 results within 10 pecentage points of result (when adjusted from 50/50 to 46.8% Remain) = 96.3%. It gave 235 out of 326 results within 5 pecentage points of result (when adjusted from 50/50 to 46.8% Remain) = 72.1%. I've added the actual referendum result in each area on the right-hand side of the spreadsheet, along with the "error" you get comparing this with what the formula predicted. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0 |
|
