iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Feb 6, 2017 21:30:34 GMT
Highly doubtful. Portsmouth's pretty much a benchmark for what happened in Sheffield I'd suspect in terms of pattern... Birmingham would be better: another large city with varied demographics which narrowly voted Leave overall. I'm confident that the more urban bits of Hallam (mostly in Crookes & Crosspool, Ecclesall and Fulwood wards) were strongly Remain, as were the adjoining parts of Central. I'm less confident about the more outlying areas, especially Stannington ward which it wouldn't surprise me if Leave won. Chris Hanretty's 35% Leave for the constituency as a whole seems plausible. I've heard (I can't remember where from now) that Stannington definitely went for Leave, with Ecclesall having the highest remain vote in Sheffield. |
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Post by martinwhelton on Feb 6, 2017 22:08:01 GMT
Osterley isn't that odd - the BBC have identified a pattern of heavily-Asian wards in west London being fairly strong for leave. But Osterley isn't that heavily Asian compared with neighbouring wards in Heston and Hounslow proper which on the whole voted Remain or only narrowly Leave. It's also much more middle class and highly educated than those, but the Leave vote is on a par with the wards in the Feltham area whereas I'd ecpect it to be more like that in Isleworth. it doesn't ring true to me Knowing the ward as I do, and looking at some of the wards that were allocated postal votes in Hounslow, the result in Osterley didn't really correlate given the ward make up and the general affluence of the ward. The overall leave vote would have certainly been much diminished if based on actual votes. |
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 6, 2017 22:17:47 GMT
Am I missing something.....No I live in Ossett, as we say in Ossett A question only you can answer. It was just that your paragraph reminded me irresistibly of that story about Harold Wilson (I think) at Chatham in 1964 (I think), making a speech extolling the virtues of a strong navy and Chatham's history and its dockyards and how wonderful and historical the area was in general. He then paused for effect and said "And why am I saying these things?", to which a wag at the back shouted "'Cos your in bloody Chatham of course". (Or words to that effect). |
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Post by froome on Feb 6, 2017 22:25:25 GMT
The striking thing - and it really isn't what you expect to see - is how relatively uniform results are within most local authorities. Typically the odd ward that went the 'wrong' way did not do so by much, etc. Oh i don't know. Look at the difference between Moseley and Shard End, between Hartcliffe and Clifton, Chiswick and Feltham*, Wollaton and Bilborough in Nottingham - actually exactly the kind of divergence you'd expect*. I was actually more struck by the divergence between wards in somewhere like Norwich which I thought would be fairly uniform;ly for Remain but had a few strong Leave wards in the North (actually not that surprising really) and particularly by a very strong Remain ward in Southend. *Osterley is kind of odd though Yes it was the differences between wards in some cities which really struck me. Some of the local authority results mask some enormous disparities between different areas within them. |
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
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Post by ColinJ on Feb 6, 2017 22:52:04 GMT
A quick look-see at the figures for Harrow suggest huge distortions to the ward figures caused by the random allocation of postal votes. Figures for Pinner South, Marlborough and Greenhill show an almost impossibly high turnout, while other wards, such as Wealdstone and Queensbury have remarkably low turnouts. I will investigate further and report back. Yes likewise in St Albans - Ashley has almost a 100% turnout if the figures are taken at face value. I suspect the random distribution of postal votes (which in St Albans would of course have been heavily for Remain) probably masked the fact that we (ie Leave) actually carried London Colney and Park Street. Also did very extensice sampling of the St Stephens boxes and it was literally 50/50 all the way through so was surprised by the final margin which likely has the same explanation (and conversely I'd have said St Peters was looking about 80% Remain) For people who like accuracy at a ward level, I'm not sure how useful this data is. After looking at the numbers in more detail: The wards with stupidly high turnouts are: Pinner South, Headstone South, Marlborough, West Harrow and Greenhill. Wards with about the right turnout are: Pinner, Hatch End, Edgware, Roxbourne, Roxeth. Wards with suspiciously low turnouts are: Harrow Weald ("won" by Leave by 15 votes), Stanmore Park, Canons, Headstone North, Wealdstone, Belmont, Rayners Lane, Kenton West, Kenton East, Queensbury, Harrow on the Hill. I don't think there's any way I can include the figures, even as a footnote, in my web site! |
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 6, 2017 22:53:30 GMT
A question only you can answer. It was just that your paragraph reminded me irresistibly of that story about Harold Wilson (I think) at Chatham in 1964 (I think), making a speech extolling the virtues of a strong navy and Chatham's history and its dockyards and how wonderful and historical the area was in general. He then paused for effect and said "And why am I saying these things?", to which a wag at the back shouted "'Cos your in bloody Chatham of course". (Or words to that effect). Hoo?  Are you? I really wanna know..... |
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ColinJ
Labour
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Post by ColinJ on Feb 7, 2017 11:26:36 GMT
Are you? I really wanna know..... Right, enough of this nonsense You're not a fan of The Who, AC?  |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 7, 2017 11:38:54 GMT
Indeed, that he was.
They seem to be a somewhat underrated band these days, if anything.
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Feb 7, 2017 15:13:55 GMT
Osterley isn't that odd - the BBC have identified a pattern of heavily-Asian wards in west London being fairly strong for leave. What I do find odd is the cases where authorities have only released data for a handful of wards - both Fenland and South Cambridgeshire fall into this boat and I suspect there'd be some interesting patterns in the remainder if we'd been given them. And none in Wales at all. I'd love to see Swansea, Cardiff, the Vale, and Rhondda Cynon Taf in particular. ...and Conwy too.   |
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Post by John Chanin on Feb 7, 2017 15:26:36 GMT
The striking thing - and it really isn't what you expect to see - is how relatively uniform results are within most local authorities. Typically the odd ward that went the 'wrong' way did not do so by much, etc. Oh i don't know. Look at the difference between Moseley and Shard End, between Hartcliffe and Clifton, Chiswick and Feltham*, Wollaton and Bilborough in Nottingham - actually exactly the kind of divergence you'd expect*. I was actually more struck by the divergence between wards in somewhere like Norwich which I thought would be fairly uniform;ly for Remain but had a few strong Leave wards in the North (actually not that surprising really) and particularly by a very strong Remain ward in Southend.
*Osterley is kind of odd though The Belfairs data is almost certainly wrong - presumably a lot of postals. In Southend the London commuters in Leigh, and the town centre voted remain by narrow margins as would be expected. Belfairs adjoins Leigh but couldn't possibly have polled over 60% for remain. As others have commented the admixture of what are quite a lot of postals these days at random makes the data dubious. |
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 7, 2017 15:33:20 GMT
Does this look like an awful lot of data but not a vast amount of information?
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Feb 7, 2017 16:27:40 GMT
Apparently Barraigh, Bhatarsaigh, Eirisgeigh agus Uibhist a Deas (Western Isles) was the best result for the Yes campaign at the Scottish independence referendum. Dunblane & Bridge of Allan and Penicuik/Midlothian West were the best No wards in their respective council areas at the independence referendum. Based on the postal returns it looks as though Steòrnabhagh a Tuat (Western Isles) might've also voted Leave. The obvious pattern in the Western Isles is that No/Leave did better in areas with higher numbers of conservative Presbyterians. Which parties tend to get their votes? |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Feb 7, 2017 18:51:38 GMT
Does this look like an awful lot of data but not a vast amount of information? Well, the main conclusions from the accompanying article were that, when combined with census returns from the same areas, the main predictors for Leave vs Remain were: 1. Educational attainment - the higher the educational attainment e.g. Cambridge, the higher the Remain vote. 2. Age - the older the population, the higher the Leave vote; and 3. (not as significant as the first two) Ethnicity - the more "white" the ward, the higher the Leave vote (with some exceptions). |
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 7, 2017 19:29:19 GMT
Does this look like an awful lot of data but not a vast amount of information? Well, the main conclusions from the accompanying article were that, when combined with census returns from the same areas, the main predictors for Leave vs Remain were: 1. Educational attainment - the higher the educational attainment e.g. Cambridge, the higher the Remain vote. 2. Age - the older the population, the higher the Leave vote; and 3. (not as significant as the first two) Ethnicity - the more "white" the ward, the higher the Leave vote (with some exceptions). I thought we knew that from opinion polling (however accurate). |
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 7, 2017 20:06:06 GMT
This is the formula I came up with before the EU referendum to predict how each council area in England would vote at the referendum. It was quite good although it didn't work very well in places like Slough, Newham, Hounslow, etc. because it assumed poorer ethnic minorities would be more in favour of Remain than they actually were: Formula (where the result is Remain percentage forecast): ((100−A)*0.5915) + (B*0.131) − (C*0.0145) + (D*0.16) + (E*0.2296) + (F*0.1) − (G*0.051) + (H*0.065 ) - 1.1 A: UKIP percentage at 2014 Euro elections, which was given to 1 decimal place in the UK Parliament document. (2 or 3 decimal places might have been more useful). B: Non-white percentage, 2011 census. C: White British percentage, 2011 census. D: Age 16-32 inclusive (percentage) E: Level 4 qualifications and above (percentage) F: Agricultural workers (percentage) G: Level 1 qualifications (percentage) H: Professional occupation (percentage) Using St Albans as an example: A: 21.4%, B: 11.58%, C: 81.15%, D: 18.55%, E: 46.34%, F: 0.28%, G: 10.00%, H: 28.56% Formula: 46.49 + 1.52 - 1.18 + 2.97 + 10.64 + 0.03 - 0.51 + 1.86 -1.1 = 60.71% The actual result in St Albans was 62.71%. Spreadsheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0 |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2017 20:51:56 GMT
The obvious pattern in the Western Isles is that No/Leave did better in areas with higher numbers of conservative Presbyterians. Which parties tend to get their votes? Labour, and to a lesser extent the Christian Party. |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Feb 7, 2017 21:40:27 GMT
Which parties tend to get their votes? Labour, and to a lesser extent the Christian Party. Aren't Labour traditionally the Catholic party, and doesn't that matter a lot in the Western Isles? |
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Post by casualobserver on Feb 7, 2017 23:12:37 GMT
The striking thing - and it really isn't what you expect to see - is how relatively uniform results are within most local authorities. Typically the odd ward that went the 'wrong' way did not do so by much, etc. It is. In Wakefield it was more or less 2/1 Leave and that applied across the district from more affluent areas like Wrenthorpe, Ossett and Horbury, to less affluent Wakefield East, Ferrybridge and Hemsworth. The exceptions were ultra wealthy Sandal, where it was only marginally for Leave, and ultra poor South Elmsall & South Kirby, where it was 3/1 Leave. What does that tell us That there's a negative correlation between prosperity and common sense? |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
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Post by Foggy on Feb 8, 2017 1:50:50 GMT
That there's a negative correlation between prosperity and common sense? This explains a lot about the Tories' former woes. Sixteen years ago, they went into the GE as the anti-prosperity party! |
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wallington
Green
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Post by wallington on Feb 16, 2017 17:59:37 GMT
I think the only surprise I can see from my home borough is that Selhurst voted Leave. Other then that Croydon is pretty much as expected. The two Norwood wards and Thornton Heath ward had tte largest Remain votes and the two New Addington wards had the highest leave votes. While Selhurst may be a slight surprise, it was once upon a time a hive of Far-Right activity (the NF once had its party headquaters in or around the old Whitehorse Manor ward). Interestlingly, Nick Griffin stood as a candidate in Whitehorse Manor in his first ever election outing in the late '70s... he came nowhere near winning
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