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Post by anthony on Feb 6, 2017 10:22:11 GMT
BBC has obtained a number of councils' ward breakdowns for the referendum (subject to the qualification that some PVs are mixed in): Here! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2017 12:16:42 GMT
'Whalsay and South Unst' is a bizarre polling district combination.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 6, 2017 12:28:11 GMT
BBC has obtained a number of councils' ward breakdowns for the referendum (subject to the qualification that some PVs are mixed in): Here!Of the data available (admittedly a small subsection of the total): Most Leave: Middlesbrough, Brambles & Thorntree, 82.51% Most Remain: Cambridge, Market, 87.84%. |
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Post by andrewteale on Feb 6, 2017 13:19:08 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2017 15:00:01 GMT
Apparently Barraigh, Bhatarsaigh, Eirisgeigh agus Uibhist a Deas (Western Isles) was the best result for the Yes campaign at the Scottish independence referendum. Dunblane & Bridge of Allan and Penicuik/Midlothian West were the best No wards in their respective council areas at the independence referendum. Based on the postal returns it looks as though Steòrnabhagh a Tuat (Western Isles) might've also voted Leave. The obvious pattern in the Western Isles is that No/Leave did better in areas with higher numbers of conservative Presbyterians. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 6, 2017 15:04:01 GMT
The striking thing - and it really isn't what you expect to see - is how relatively uniform results are within most local authorities. Typically the odd ward that went the 'wrong' way did not do so by much, etc.
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 6, 2017 15:34:43 GMT
The striking thing - and it really isn't what you expect to see - is how relatively uniform results are within most local authorities. Typically the odd ward that went the 'wrong' way did not do so by much, etc. It is. In Wakefield it was more or less 2/1 Leave and that applied across the district from more affluent areas like Wrenthorpe, Ossett and Horbury, to less affluent Wakefield East, Ferrybridge and Hemsworth. The exceptions were ultra wealthy Sandal, where it was only marginally for Leave, and ultra poor South Elmsall & South Kirby, where it was 3/1 Leave. What does that tell us You live in Wakefield? |
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Post by IceAgeComing on Feb 6, 2017 15:55:14 GMT
One of the 3,000 remain votes in Stirling West is mine  Its acutally really interesting to see this data: the article mentions numbers from Aberdeenshire and Shetland which aren't in the dataset and I'd love to see them - not experts on either but having some elses interpretation who was would be cool. The Stirling numbers aren't too surprising and fit broadly what I'd have expected: looking at the raw vote numbers and without any access to ward electorates I wonder whether the main difference in the percentages is actually due to turnout rather than any significant more support for Leave? In all the three-seaters the number of leave votes is really rather consistent; that's what is making me wonder that. Probably a bit #analysis-y of me, but oh well... Also ntyuk1707 what numbers are you using for ward results for the indyref? As far as I'm aware none were ever released: shame since having both really would be rather interesting. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 6, 2017 16:14:08 GMT
The striking thing - and it really isn't what you expect to see - is how relatively uniform results are within most local authorities. Typically the odd ward that went the 'wrong' way did not do so by much, etc. Oh i don't know. Look at the difference between Moseley and Shard End, between Hartcliffe and Clifton, Chiswick and Feltham*, Wollaton and Bilborough in Nottingham - actually exactly the kind of divergence you'd expect*. I was actually more struck by the divergence between wards in somewhere like Norwich which I thought would be fairly uniform;ly for Remain but had a few strong Leave wards in the North (actually not that surprising really) and particularly by a very strong Remain ward in Southend. *Osterley is kind of odd though |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Feb 6, 2017 17:53:49 GMT
The striking thing - and it really isn't what you expect to see - is how relatively uniform results are within most local authorities. Typically the odd ward that went the 'wrong' way did not do so by much, etc. Weren't postal votes mixed in in many places? That would dilute intra-authority variation. Also, yes Wakefield is fairly uniform but both Calderdale and Bradford, for example, show quite a bit of variation. In particular, the Tory strongholds in the north of the latter split: Wharfedale and Ilkley were strongly Remain, but Bingley Rural was fairly strong for Leave. I don't know what happened to the postal votes in Calderdale, but if they were spread around the wards Luddendenfoot may actually have joined Calder and Tod in voting Remain. It's frustrating how many councils, including mine, didn't count by ward and so have no data. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 6, 2017 17:59:07 GMT
There should have been a standard way of counting votes across the country. To have polling district data for some areas and just council area results for others is ridiculous IMO.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,759 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 6, 2017 18:14:25 GMT
The striking thing - and it really isn't what you expect to see - is how relatively uniform results are within most local authorities. Typically the odd ward that went the 'wrong' way did not do so by much, etc. It is. In Wakefield it was more or less 2/1 Leave and that applied across the district from more affluent areas like Wrenthorpe, Ossett and Horbury, to less affluent Wakefield East, Ferrybridge and Hemsworth. The exceptions were ultra wealthy Sandal, where it was only marginally for Leave, and ultra poor South Elmsall & South Kirby, where it was 3/1 Leave. What does that tell us That the Sheffield Hallam result might be closer to the whole-Sheffield result than paople want to believe? |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 6, 2017 18:55:53 GMT
It is. In Wakefield it was more or less 2/1 Leave and that applied across the district from more affluent areas like Wrenthorpe, Ossett and Horbury, to less affluent Wakefield East, Ferrybridge and Hemsworth. The exceptions were ultra wealthy Sandal, where it was only marginally for Leave, and ultra poor South Elmsall & South Kirby, where it was 3/1 Leave. What does that tell us That the Sheffield Hallam result might be closer to the whole-Sheffield result than paople want to believe? Highly doubtful. Portsmouth's pretty much a benchmark for what happened in Sheffield I'd suspect in terms of pattern... |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Feb 6, 2017 19:17:51 GMT
That the Sheffield Hallam result might be closer to the whole-Sheffield result than paople want to believe? Highly doubtful. Portsmouth's pretty much a benchmark for what happened in Sheffield I'd suspect in terms of pattern... Birmingham would be better: another large city with varied demographics which narrowly voted Leave overall. I'm confident that the more urban bits of Hallam (mostly in Crookes & Crosspool, Ecclesall and Fulwood wards) were strongly Remain, as were the adjoining parts of Central. I'm less confident about the more outlying areas, especially Stannington ward which it wouldn't surprise me if Leave won. Chris Hanretty's 35% Leave for the constituency as a whole seems plausible. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,759
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Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 6, 2017 19:56:28 GMT
Highly doubtful. Portsmouth's pretty much a benchmark for what happened in Sheffield I'd suspect in terms of pattern... Birmingham would be better: another large city with varied demographics which narrowly voted Leave overall. I'm confident that the more urban bits of Hallam (mostly in Crookes & Crosspool, Ecclesall and Fulwood wards) were strongly Remain, as were the adjoining parts of Central. I'm less confident about the more outlying areas, especially Stannington ward which it wouldn't surprise me if Leave won. Chris Hanretty's 35% Leave for the constituency as a whole seems plausible. That's more or less my feeling from working out the likely Leave vote in Brightside and then applying arithmetic. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 6, 2017 20:18:39 GMT
The striking thing - and it really isn't what you expect to see - is how relatively uniform results are within most local authorities. Typically the odd ward that went the 'wrong' way did not do so by much, etc. Oh i don't know. Look at the difference between Moseley and Shard End, between Hartcliffe and Clifton, Chiswick and Feltham*, Wollaton and Bilborough in Nottingham - actually exactly the kind of divergence you'd expect*. I was actually more struck by the divergence between wards in somewhere like Norwich which I thought would be fairly uniform;ly for Remain but had a few strong Leave wards in the North (actually not that surprising really) and particularly by a very strong Remain ward in Southend. *Osterley is kind of odd though Osterley isn't that odd - the BBC have identified a pattern of heavily-Asian wards in west London being fairly strong for leave. What I do find odd is the cases where authorities have only released data for a handful of wards - both Fenland and South Cambridgeshire fall into this boat and I suspect there'd be some interesting patterns in the remainder if we'd been given them. |
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Feb 6, 2017 20:25:39 GMT
A quick look-see at the figures for Harrow suggest huge distortions to the ward figures caused by the random allocation of postal votes. Figures for Pinner South, Marlborough and Greenhill show an almost impossibly high turnout, while other wards, such as Wealdstone and Queensbury have remarkably low turnouts. I will investigate further and report back.
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Post by hullenedge on Feb 6, 2017 20:45:18 GMT
Calderdale Electoral Services advised that ward results were not available! Postal votes were spread across wards irrespective of address.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 6, 2017 21:15:37 GMT
Oh i don't know. Look at the difference between Moseley and Shard End, between Hartcliffe and Clifton, Chiswick and Feltham*, Wollaton and Bilborough in Nottingham - actually exactly the kind of divergence you'd expect*. I was actually more struck by the divergence between wards in somewhere like Norwich which I thought would be fairly uniform;ly for Remain but had a few strong Leave wards in the North (actually not that surprising really) and particularly by a very strong Remain ward in Southend. *Osterley is kind of odd though Osterley isn't that odd - the BBC have identified a pattern of heavily-Asian wards in west London being fairly strong for leave. But Osterley isn't that heavily Asian compared with neighbouring wards in Heston and Hounslow proper which on the whole voted Remain or only narrowly Leave. It's also much more middle class and highly educated than those, but the Leave vote is on a par with the wards in the Feltham area whereas I'd ecpect it to be more like that in Isleworth. it doesn't ring true to me |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 6, 2017 21:26:22 GMT
A quick look-see at the figures for Harrow suggest huge distortions to the ward figures caused by the random allocation of postal votes. Figures for Pinner South, Marlborough and Greenhill show an almost impossibly high turnout, while other wards, such as Wealdstone and Queensbury have remarkably low turnouts. I will investigate further and report back. Yes likewise in St Albans - Ashley has almost a 100% turnout if the figures are taken at face value. I suspect the random distribution of postal votes (which in St Albans would of course have been heavily for Remain) probably masked the fact that we (ie Leave) actually carried London Colney and Park Street. Also did very extensice sampling of the St Stephens boxes and it was literally 50/50 all the way through so was surprised by the final margin which likely has the same explanation (and conversely I'd have said St Peters was looking about 80% Remain) |
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