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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2017 21:34:54 GMT
It'll be their Battle of Cold Harbor imo. Agreed, actually it will be Cold Harbour whoever wins. I expect Labour to win fairly comfortably. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Feb 5, 2017 21:53:48 GMT
People in Stoke apparently coming to the conclusion Nuttal just wants a scalp and has no interest in the city or people. If UKIP had not used the parachute they would have been on a better standing with voters. HP? |
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Post by greatkingrat on Feb 5, 2017 21:57:38 GMT
No: Stoke-on-Trent Central will not be UKIP's Waterloo, it will be UKIP's Euston as that is the station Paul Nuttal will be heading towards after he loses the by-election to Labour. Don't think Stoke to Bootle via Euston is a Permitted Route? |
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Feb 5, 2017 22:24:11 GMT
Let me further refine my position. Any win by UKIP (say 6-votes) would be excellent news for them and a really big political event. A strong second place (say less than 1000 behind Labour) would be good enough for them to retain integrity and face. A weak second (on Heywood and Middleton basis and even a deal better) would be demeaning and disappointing. Not being second or still neck-and-neck with the Conservatives would be a disaster. Obviously a Heywood & Middleton-style result would be good considering how safe Stoke Central has historically been for Labour, but it would be akin to Farage failing at Thanet in 2015. To regain momentum after the referendum, UKIP need to win Stoke. If they don't, it'll be a humiliation for them and their leader. If they do win it, I think they could drastically cut the Labour majority in Leigh (to c11%) and could hold 2nd in Liverpool, Walton. Ideally, UKIP would want to win Stoke Central and then have by-election opportunities in Hartlepool etc. This could make Leigh a very interesting contest, to see how close UKIP can get. I'm not one for drastic political statements, but here goes. There is zero chance of UKIP finishing 2nd in Liverpool Walton. They didn't even stand a candidate in the 2016 mayoral election, and I would be surprised if they had one for the LCR election. It would be Labour (obviously), then Lib Dems a long way behind in second because they have a strong (or previously strong shall we say) local party which will be the only ones bothering to put in an effort. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2017 22:41:11 GMT
I'm not one for drastic political statements, but here goes. There is zero chance of UKIP finishing 2nd in Liverpool Walton. They didn't even stand a candidate in the 2016 mayoral election, and I would be surprised if they had one for the LCR election. It would be Labour (obviously), then Lib Dems a long way behind in second because they have a strong (or previously strong shall we say) local party which will be the only ones bothering to put in an effort. According to cllr Kemp, their local leader, the yellow peril has more members in Liverpool now than ever before |
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Post by casualobserver on Feb 5, 2017 23:03:19 GMT
I don't think that UKIP will win in Stoke but I don't think it will be fatal for them. What may be fatal is a combination of not winning in Stoke together with losing more than 80% of their County Councillors in May.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Feb 5, 2017 23:29:50 GMT
No: Stoke-on-Trent Central will not be UKIP's Waterloo, it will be UKIP's Euston as that is the station Paul Nuttal will be heading towards after he loses the by-election to Labour. Don't think Stoke to Bootle via Euston is a Permitted Route? As Nuttal will remain an MEP for the moment, he'll want to get to Brussels via St Pancras anyway (though I did use the Eurostar when it still departed from Waterloo). I'd like to see how well Nuttal gets on with Carswell if they end up as the only two members of the UKIP contingent in the Commons. |
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Post by iainbhx on Feb 6, 2017 6:44:31 GMT
No: Stoke-on-Trent Central will not be UKIP's Waterloo, it will be UKIP's Euston as that is the station Paul Nuttal will be heading towards after he loses the by-election to Labour. Don't think Stoke to Bootle via Euston is a Permitted Route? I'm not sure Bootle to Euston via Stoke is permitted either. |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 6, 2017 7:02:25 GMT
Don't think Stoke to Bootle via Euston is a Permitted Route? I'm not sure Bootle to Euston via Stoke is permitted either. It is, whether you mean Oriel Road, New Strand, or the one in Cumbria. The Merseyside ones used to be handy when Stoke to London had no Off Peak 1R, whereas stations in the Liverpool area to London did. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Feb 6, 2017 8:05:36 GMT
Don't think Stoke to Bootle via Euston is a Permitted Route? I'm not sure Bootle to Euston via Stoke is permitted either. Mornington Crescent? |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 6, 2017 9:19:58 GMT
You have to give Labour their due, they are certainly doing their best to lose it. All they need now is for Diane Abbott to spend the day their and Nuttal can begin looking at London flats Emily Thornberry was spotted leaving Euston this morning... |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Feb 6, 2017 9:36:45 GMT
Emily Thornberry was spotted leaving Euston this morning... She may be a figure of fun due to her exploits with flags in Kent, but she isn't quite the liability that Abbott is. And of course she does have a brain and no doubt learned from her past mistakes I don't know- she's only got to say that she came from an estate whilst speaking in her ludicrous put on voice and she'll rile a few people. Personally, I'd like Labour to trot her out more often. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2017 9:48:20 GMT
People in Stoke apparently coming to the conclusion Nuttal just wants a scalp and has no interest in the city or people. If UKIP had not used the parachute they would have been on a better standing with voters. And Labour's candidate? Local councillor lived there for 13 years, beat UKIP in council by election. His predecessor, who this candidate worked for locally, was definitely parachuted in. My main point is the guy that did most in organising UKIP, Mick Hariold got shafted without an explanation. I would not be to worried if I were Labour, but as I am only using a couple of Labour sources I could be off beam. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 6, 2017 10:54:45 GMT
You have to give Labour their due, they are certainly doing their best to lose it. All they need now is for Diane Abbott to spend the day their and Nuttal can begin looking at London flats Have you actually been to Stoke since the by-election was called? Labour people generally seem positive. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2017 12:01:48 GMT
Very good chance it will be. UKIP is a dying party, without Farage and the EU to campaign against their vote is evaporating. The northern strategy is going nowhere and never will, organisation is terrible, money is short to non-existent when the EU funding disappears. Nuttall will only get an increased vote share because the Tories aren't bothering, and the result won't be close. This is a very irritating post. UKIP may well be destined for oblivion. However, if they win this byelection, they aren't, and the betting odds suggest it is on a knife-edge. That's the whole point of this thread. We'll find out on February 23rd. |
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Post by justin124 on Feb 6, 2017 12:02:47 GMT
How much of an effort is the BNP mounting here? Given that they polled 8% in both 2005 and 2010 their prescence could harm UKIP.
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Post by iainbhx on Feb 6, 2017 12:21:50 GMT
I'm not sure Bootle to Euston via Stoke is permitted either. It is, whether you mean Oriel Road, New Strand, or the one in Cumbria. The Merseyside ones used to be handy when Stoke to London had no Off Peak 1R, whereas stations in the Liverpool area to London did. Ah yes, so it does. BV+GC for instance. I had trouble with a EMT gripper on friday, so I let him have my pennies for Crewe-Stoke. Of course, Birmingham-Crewe isn't valid via Stoke, but Tyseley-Crewe is and he was failing to grasp the distinction. |
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 6, 2017 12:23:20 GMT
How much of an effort is the BNP mounting here? Given that they polled 8% in both 2005 and 2010 their prescence could harm UKIP. It could harm Labour even more? |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 6, 2017 12:30:24 GMT
It is, whether you mean Oriel Road, New Strand, or the one in Cumbria. The Merseyside ones used to be handy when Stoke to London had no Off Peak 1R, whereas stations in the Liverpool area to London did. Ah yes, so it does. BV+GC for instance. I had trouble with a EMT gripper on friday, so I let him have my pennies for Crewe-Stoke. Of course, Birmingham-Crewe isn't valid via Stoke, but Tyseley-Crewe is and he was failing to grasp the distinction. Suspect you would have been better off on LM. Or were you indulging in your dogbox infatuation? |
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 6, 2017 12:32:01 GMT
Have you actually been to Stoke since the by-election was called? Labour people generally seem positive. Yes, but how much of that is the usual 'great reception on the #labourdoorstep' bullshit for public consumption on social media? Have you ever noticed that nobody of any party ever posts on Twitter or Facebook about how they had five doors slammed in their face and were chased down the street by a Rottweiler? I don't know what will happen, though I suspect we will hold on. However, it was telling that a story appeared in the Guardian / Observer over the weekend, obviously briefed by one of the Leader's entourage, about having a 'progressive alliance' in Stoke. That would indicate that the canvassing returns aren't looking too clever. I'm calling bull***t on that Graun story, they mischief make all the time. I am saying what I do on the basis of a few people whose accounts I consider reliable. |
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