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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2017 16:34:27 GMT
I am new to them yes. I haven't been aware of these things for that long, but its interesting to see how Stoke has moved to the right and Brighton & Hove has moved to the left, or how the Tories have weakened in Metroland and strengthened in Inner London.
I just find these things interesting.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2017 16:36:58 GMT
Other countervailing trends:
Bishop Auckland and Tynemouth.
The Tory position in seats like Croydon North, Edmonton, Hayes & Harlington, Ilford South, Mitcham & Morden compared to their position in Greenwich & Woolwich, Poplar & Limehouse, Islington South & Finsbury and Vauxhall.
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 4, 2017 16:40:24 GMT
Of course it could be that you've picked Brighton and Hove as an arbitrary place so that you can come to a fairly banal conclusion about socioeconomic trends which everyone else has been well aware of for many years. But it does not stop it being interesting does it, with Stoke currently in play and many other quite obvious statements also being made? The way matters are shaping I think we are likely to recover Hove and increase Kemptown Majority in 2020, especially under new drawn boundaries. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2017 16:45:04 GMT
Of course it could be that you've picked Brighton and Hove as an arbitrary place so that you can come to a fairly banal conclusion about socioeconomic trends which everyone else has been well aware of for many years. But it does not stop it being interesting does it, with Stoke currently in play and many other quite obvious statements also being made? The way matters are shaping I think we are likely to recover Hove and increase Kemptown Majority in 2020, especially under new drawn boundaries. There is a scenario where Labour win zilch in Brighton and zilch in Stoke, especially if UKIP win this by-election. I have Stoke North and South as Con gains in 2020, along with Hove, but I do accept that Hove is trending Labour while Stoke is trending against that party. Interesting how the centre of both cities is seemingly competitive ground for 3rd parties (Greens in Brighton, Pavilion and the UKIP in Stoke Central, with both central seats being represented by the party leaders (potentially)). |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2017 16:50:03 GMT
No: Stoke-on-Trent Central will not be UKIP's Waterloo, it will be UKIP's Euston as that is the station Paul Nuttal will be heading towards after he loses the by-election to Labour. You think? I'm not so sure. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2017 16:58:11 GMT
I believe Labour will win Stoke Central. FPTP will save them. A proportional system would have almost certainly gifted UKIP a win.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 4, 2017 17:03:57 GMT
I believe Labour will win Stoke Central. FPTP will save them. You mean the Labour candidate will get more votes than anyone else does? That's winning fair and square. Otherwise someone could equally well say 'Labour won Bootle in 2015, saved by the fact that the UK has refused to adopt an electoral system in which the candidate who looks most like Eddie Hitler from Bottom is declared the winner'. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2017 17:08:52 GMT
I believe Labour will win Stoke Central. FPTP will save them. A proportional system would have almost certainly gifted UKIP a win. I get what you mean. If we had preference voting then the UKIP would win at a canter. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 4, 2017 17:19:55 GMT
I believe Labour will win Stoke Central. FPTP will save them. A proportional system would have almost certainly gifted UKIP a win. A proportional system would have resulted in numerous UKIP MPs being elected in 2015 - how many would depend on the precise system, but we would have an MP or MPs representing this part of Staffordshire no doubt. If the system was AMS presumably the area of the direct mandate seat would be larger and would still have elected a Labour MP in 2015 and if that had been Tristram Hunt then with all other things being equal we might have a by-election on the same terms in which case it makes no difference to our prospects. If a list seat in the area had become vacant then it would have gone to the next person on the list of the party who held the seat. I therefore fail to understand your logic. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 4, 2017 17:22:22 GMT
I believe Labour will win Stoke Central. FPTP will save them. A proportional system would have almost certainly gifted UKIP a win. I get what you mean. If we had preference voting then the UKIP would win at a canter. That isn't what he meant. He didn't say anything about preferential voting, he mentioned a proportional system (I don't necessarily agree that we we would win on that basis anyway, much as I might like to. It's easy to see UKIP winning 30-35% of first preference votes and that putting us ahead of Labour but then falling behind after second preferences |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Feb 4, 2017 17:44:59 GMT
I am new to them yes. I haven't been aware of these things for that long, but its interesting to see how Stoke has moved to the right and Brighton & Hove has moved to the left, or how the Tories have weakened in Metroland and strengthened in Inner London. I just find these things interesting. Don't worry, you're new on here, you won't be aware of some of the things that have been done to death. And sometimes a cliche is a cliche because it is true. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2017 18:01:42 GMT
More like their Stalingrad! Poor old Eddie Hitler. Not much fun in Stalingrad, eh: |
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Post by andrew111 on Feb 4, 2017 18:26:34 GMT
I am new to them yes. I haven't been aware of these things for that long, but its interesting to see how Stoke has moved to the right and Brighton & Hove has moved to the left, or how the Tories have weakened in Metroland and strengthened in Inner London. I just find these things interesting. Don't worry, you're new on here, you won't be aware of some of the things that have been done to death. And sometimes a cliche is a cliche because it is true. Conservativeestimate is a refugee from UK polling report, where he was treated a little roughly recently... |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Feb 4, 2017 18:30:37 GMT
I believe Labour will win Stoke Central. FPTP will save them. A proportional system would have almost certainly gifted UKIP a win. How so? If the seats in the by-election were allocated by a proportional mechanism such as D'Hondt divisors, Labour would win the 1 seat just as decisively as it would under FPTP. |
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Post by lancastrian on Feb 4, 2017 18:37:49 GMT
Very good chance it will be. UKIP is a dying party, without Farage and the EU to campaign against their vote is evaporating. The northern strategy is going nowhere and never will, organisation is terrible, money is short to non-existent when the EU funding disappears. Nuttall will only get an increased vote share because the Tories aren't bothering, and the result won't be close.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2017 18:46:15 GMT
I believe Labour will win Stoke Central. FPTP will save them. A proportional system would have almost certainly gifted UKIP a win. Makes no sense. |
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Post by andrew111 on Feb 4, 2017 19:28:24 GMT
I believe Labour will win Stoke Central. FPTP will save them. A proportional system would have almost certainly gifted UKIP a win. I get what you mean. If we had preference voting then the UKIP would win at a canter.[/q uote] Preference voting is never going to help a marmite party like UKIP. The French run off system is similar in effect to the alternative vote, and historically the voters have always ganged up on the Le Pens |
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john07
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Post by john07 on Feb 5, 2017 20:52:19 GMT
I get what you mean. If we had preference voting then the UKIP would win at a canter. That isn't what he meant. He didn't say anything about preferential voting, he mentioned a proportional system (I don't necessarily agree that we we would win on that basis anyway, much as I might like to. It's easy to see UKIP winning 30-35% of first preference votes and that putting us ahead of Labour but then falling behind after second preferences Pete, the lesson is to stop trying to make sense out of others' incoherent ramblings. There is no way that a proportionate system will apply to a filling a single member vacancy. |
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Post by thedeadflagblues on Feb 5, 2017 21:20:03 GMT
It'll be their Battle of Cold Harbor imo.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2017 21:31:49 GMT
People in Stoke apparently coming to the conclusion Nuttal just wants a scalp and has no interest in the city or people. If UKIP had not used the parachute they would have been on a better standing with voters.
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