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Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2017 17:48:09 GMT
Latest SPD poll results and gain since Schulz was picked: Emnid: 29% (+8) Forsa: 31% (+10) Infratest: 28% (+8) INSA: 27% (+6) Shulz is certainly getting some media coverage and it looks bad for Merkel but whether it is sustainable long-term nobody knows. I wonder what effect that would have on Brexit.....he isn't a fan of ours as far as I know I doubt the German position would change much, it would be swopping one moderate centrist for another and their national interests stay the same. |
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Post by iainbhx on Feb 7, 2017 19:14:26 GMT
Latest SPD poll results and gain since Schulz was picked: Emnid: 29% (+8) Forsa: 31% (+10) Infratest: 28% (+8) INSA: 27% (+6) Shulz is certainly getting some media coverage and it looks bad for Merkel but whether it is sustainable long-term nobody knows. I wonder what effect that would have on Brexit.....he isn't a fan of ours as far as I know It won't be good for getting a deal is Schultz is Kanzler. He'll be looking for punishment for the UK betraying the Holy European Ideal. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 8, 2017 2:00:02 GMT
Shulz is certainly getting some media coverage and it looks bad for Merkel but whether it is sustainable long-term nobody knows. I wonder what effect that would have on Brexit.....he isn't a fan of ours as far as I know It won't be good for getting a deal is Schultz is Kanzler. He'll be looking for punishment for the UK betraying the Holy European Ideal. And an axis Schulz&Macron without Albion would mean the end for national independence. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2017 10:16:14 GMT
Forsa poll with FDP on the threshold
CDU/CSU 34% (-1)
SPD 31% (+5)
AfD 10% (-1)
Greens 8% (nc)
Left 8% (-1)
FDP 5% (-1)
Others 4% (-1)
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Feb 8, 2017 12:39:11 GMT
The SPD's improving poll numbers have the potential to hurt the AfD vote. A reasonable chunk of their soft support comes from people who want to rebuke Merkel but still prefer her as Chancellor to Schultz.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 9, 2017 0:59:34 GMT
The SPD's improving poll numbers have the potential to hurt the AfD vote. A reasonable chunk of their soft support comes from people who want to rebuke Merkel but still prefer her as Chancellor to Schultz. Several media are already jubilant, that a duel in the mid would weaken AfD. Therefor Schulz doesn't try to absorb - as Gabriel - those unpleased by the MassImmigration (He hopes to hold the WWC with the usual "justice"-trick.), what should be a chance for the AfD. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 9, 2017 13:08:39 GMT
Lindner of the FDP has called for Grexit followed by debt relief.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2017 18:09:39 GMT
GMS poll (5 January):
CDU 33% (-3%)
SPD 29% (+9%)
AfD 11% (-2%)
Greens 9% (-1%)
Die Linke 8% (-2%)
FDP 6% (-1%)
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Post by A Brown on Feb 11, 2017 23:13:26 GMT
Emnid (2-8 Feb):
CDU/CSU: 33 (-)
SPD 32 (+3)
AfD 10 (-1)
Linke 8 (-)
Gru 7 (-1)
FDP 6 (-)
Sons 4
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 12, 2017 19:45:51 GMT
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Feb 12, 2017 20:01:41 GMT
Isn't the effective threshold to enter the Bundestag from Bremen far higher than 5%? That's the last Bundesland you want to stand in if you're serious about getting into federal politics from one of the smaller parties.
Bremen and Hamburg aren't the only Hanseatic cities either. In Rostock for example, the FDP got 2.5% of the vote and won 1 out of 53 seats at the last local elections in 2014.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 12, 2017 20:14:31 GMT
Isn't the effective threshold to enter the Bundestag from Bremen far higher than 5%? That's the last Bundesland you want to stand in if you're serious about getting into federal politics from one of the smaller parties. Bremen and Hamburg aren't the only Hanseatic cities either. In Rostock for example, the FDP got 2.5% of the vote and won 1 out of 53 seats at the last local elections in 2014. And Luebeck too of course. And a few others. Anyway, she'll need about 10% in Bremen, you are correct. The thing is, she's not got much of a choice- she's a loud, proud Bremer a=whose family own a major local employer. And she has made her reputation through the Buergerschaft and reviving a moribund FDP there, so going anywhere else would be transparent opportunism. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Feb 12, 2017 20:18:31 GMT
You're quite right that carpetbagging to another state would look even worse than being a no-hoper in her own home city. I felt that the last FDP campaign in Bremen was rather content-free and that she was little more than a poster girl, but I haven't followed how she has performed in the legislature since then.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2017 6:40:13 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 14, 2017 7:33:36 GMT
Blimey. We could be looking at the second coming of Rot-Gruen.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Feb 14, 2017 7:37:36 GMT
Blimey. We could be looking at the second coming of Rot-Gruen. Uh, take a look at the Green score of 7% (plus 3 other parties above the magic 5%) and then run that by me again? If this trend continues until September, it would probably mean a continuation of the GroKo, but with the SPD rather than CDU providing the Chancellor. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 14, 2017 7:41:07 GMT
Blimey. We could be looking at the second coming of Rot-Gruen. Uh, take a look at the Green score of 7% (plus 3 other parties above the magic 5%) and then run that by me again? If this trend continues until September, it would probably mean a continuation of the GroKo, but with the SPD rather than CDU providing the Chancellor. My suspicion is that there won't be an initial appetite for a second GroKo, until proven utterly unworkable otherwise. Schulz will want to show he is his own man and at least attempt something different. I also suspect that the Greens won't be as low as that come polling day. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Feb 14, 2017 7:45:21 GMT
Uh, take a look at the Green score of 7% (plus 3 other parties above the magic 5%) and then run that by me again? If this trend continues until September, it would probably mean a continuation of the GroKo, but with the SPD rather than CDU providing the Chancellor. My suspicion is that there won't be an initial appetite for a second GroKo, until proven utterly unworkable otherwise. Schulz will want to show he is his own man and at least attempt something different. I also suspect that the Greens won't be as low as that come polling day. I'm inclined to agree on the latter point, but you have to wonder where much of that SPD support is coming from if they're going to finish ahead of the Union on election day. If the AfD and Die Linke are both in the Bundestag with 10%+ and there is still a cordon sanitaire around their involvement in the executive branch at federal level, then a GroKo will show itself to be the only workable option even more quickly than in 2013 (when there were of course brief flirtations with Schwarz-Grün before normal service resumed). |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 14, 2017 7:48:30 GMT
It will be extremely hard to enforce a cordon sanitaire around the AfD if they don't enforce it round Die Linke too. Although I suspect that is exactly what will happen.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Feb 14, 2017 9:01:05 GMT
These do seem remarkable figures for the SPD.
How reliable has German polling been in the past?
And can anyone explain it? Is Schulz really so popular? (I've no reason to dislike him, I just wonder why it has taken the SPD so long to find a leader who can have this electoral effect, if it is really down to him)
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