German Bundestag Election 2017

[Merseymike]

For the SPD to form any sort of government they will have to come to some sort of accommodation with Die Linke nationally as they have locally.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Oct 2, 2017 0:04:05 GMT Merseymike said:

For the SPD to form any sort of government they will have to come to some sort of accommodation with Die Linke nationally as they have locally.

They will have to, but will they? The bad blood between the parties is deeply entrenched in several places and is very, very personal. The Saarland is an obvious one, but also in NRW and the traditionally more right-wing SPD areas such as in Lower Saxony.

More than anything, the SPD need to work out how to get back on top in NRW.

[neilm]

I'm surprised there isn't a Saarois irredentist party sponsored by some billionaire as a front. There must be a few of them who would have liked to have stayed 'independent' in 1956/7.

[jamie]

The problem with the SPD finding some 'accomodation' with Die Linke is that it will damage their own electability and wouldn't even be a very stable government (I don't imagine federal DL love massive compromise). Frankly, a lot of people in the SPD would (justifiably) rather have a coalition with anybody else than DL. Realistically, and I wouldn't normally encourage this in a pr system, they (or the Greens) need to get DL down to their core vote so the 'serious' left has as large a proportion of seats as possible in order a left of centre government to be formed.

[Merseymike]

Oct 2, 2017 13:14:16 GMT jamie said:

The problem with the SPD finding some 'accomodation' with Die Linke is that it will damage their own electability and wouldn't even be a very stable government (I don't imagine federal DL love massive compromise). Frankly, a lot of people in the SPD would (justifiably) rather have a coalition with anybody else than DL. Realistically, and I wouldn't normally encourage this in a pr system, they (or the Greens) need to get DL down to their core vote so the 'serious' left has as large a proportion of seats as possible in order a left of centre government to be formed.

DL is at its core vote already - I wouldn't vote SPD as it stands because its just too right wing
Any so called party of the left willing to go into coalition with the Conservatives just isn't worth the time of day.

[Sibboleth]

It's more that they need to accept the reality that the party split happened, that the Left does actually exist and that it takes a lot of votes that used to be theirs. There are different ways of going about this - adopting a relationship that exists between right-socialist and left-socialist parties in Scandinavia would be one, aggressively chasing their voters would be another, a strategy that goes for elements of both would also be possible - but all would be better than acting as if it is still 2002 and the Left is still the PDS and no one in the West votes for it and everyone who does in the East does so for reasons of Ostalgie.

[Sibboleth]

Oct 2, 2017 14:04:17 GMT Merseymike said:

DL is at its core vote already

That's not really true; it doesn't have a core vote in the West, or to the extent that it does it's tiny. It's a sort of electoral holding pen for left-wing voters who are unhappy with the federal incarnations of their 'natural' options. Most are o/c former SPD voters (some who have sometimes also voted Green along the way; quite a few of those now actually) and many still vote SPD in other elections.

[Sibboleth]

Left percentages, Federal and State, for the Western states...

BaWü: F 6.4, S 2.9
Bavaria: F 6.1, S 2.1
Hamburg: F 12.2, S 8.5
Hesse: F 8.1, S 5.2
Lower Saxony: F 6.9, S 3.1*
NRW: F 7.5, S 4.9
R-P: F 6.8, S 2.8
Saar: F 12.9, S 12.8
S-H: F 7.3, S 3.8

*Presently polling at around 4-5%.

For Berlin it is F 18.8, S 15.6

In the East...

Brandenburg: F 17.2, S 18.6
MVP: F 17.8, S 13.2
Saxony: F 16.1, S 18.9
Saxony-Anhalt: F 17.8, S 16.3
Thuringia: F 16.9, S 28.2

[jamie]

Oct 2, 2017 14:04:17 GMT Merseymike said:

Any so called party of the left willing to go into coalition with the Conservatives just isn't worth the time of day.

Presuming you mean the CDU, I disagree. The CDU are barely conservative, particularly economically, so any coalition keeps the country from drifting rightwards. Also, DL are beyond the pale for many in Germany, including on the left who would be otherwise happy to work with a party on the left of the left. 

[Merseymike]

Oct 2, 2017 14:25:46 GMT Sibboleth said:

Oct 2, 2017 14:04:17 GMT Merseymike said:

DL is at its core vote already

That's not really true; it doesn't have a core vote in the West, or to the extent that it does it's tiny. It's a sort of electoral holding pen for left-wing voters who are unhappy with the federal incarnations of their 'natural' options. Most are o/c former SPD voters (some who have sometimes also voted Green along the way; quite a few of those now actually) and many still vote SPD in other elections.

Interesting but I formed that view from speaking to German friends who said that much of the old nostalgia based support has literally died off and DL now wins the votes of those who think the SPD are too centrist

[Merseymike]

Oct 2, 2017 15:26:33 GMT jamie said:

Oct 2, 2017 14:04:17 GMT Merseymike said:

Any so called party of the left willing to go into coalition with the Conservatives just isn't worth the time of day.

Presuming you mean the CDU, I disagree. The CDU are barely conservative, particularly economically, so any coalition keeps the country from drifting rightwards. Also, DL are beyond the pale for many in Germany, including on the left who would be otherwise happy to work with a party on the left of the left. 

I wouldn't vote for a centrist Labour party here either - a grand coalition of the centre doesn't appeal to me at all. Actively dislike centrism as a political aim.

[Merseymike]

Oct 2, 2017 14:38:22 GMT Sibboleth said:

Left percentages, Federal and State, for the Western states...

BaWü: F 6.4, S 2.9
Bavaria: F 6.1, S 2.1
Hamburg: F 12.2, S 8.5
Hesse: F 8.1, S 5.2
Lower Saxony: F 6.9, S 3.1*
NRW: F 7.5, S 4.9
R-P: F 6.8, S 2.8
Saar: F 12.9, S 12.8
S-H: F 7.3, S 3.8

*Presently polling at around 4-5%.

For Berlin it is F 18.8, S 15.6

In the East...

Brandenburg: F 17.2, S 18.6
MVP: F 17.8, S 13.2
Saxony: F 16.1, S 18.9
Saxony-Anhalt: F 17.8, S 16.3
Thuringia: F 16.9, S 28.2

Those votes look pretty much core leftist to me - certainly in the West. The East is where the SPD are much weaker anyway

[Merseymike]

Oct 2, 2017 14:13:05 GMT @benjl said:

Oct 2, 2017 14:04:17 GMT Merseymike said:

DL is at its core vote already - I wouldn't vote SPD as it stands because its just too right wing
Any so called party of the left willing to go into coalition with the Conservatives just isn't worth the time of day.

A party that lets the AFD or Die Linke hold the balance of power is a far far bigger disappointment to me than one that does a deal with the CDU. (I have been reading about the CDU recently and our aim on the left should be to make the Tories more like them.)

So we end up with three centre parties - no thanks.

[thetop]

Oct 2, 2017 15:57:22 GMT @benjl said:

Oct 2, 2017 15:40:09 GMT Merseymike said:

So we end up with three centre parties - no thanks.

No we move the Overton window, Labour governments cannot last forever and if when the Tories take over there are ruled by thatcherites and Brexiteers all our progress will be rolled back. Moving the country leftwards is far more important than keeping the party pure.

New Labour's move to the centre did not precipitate a like-minded centrist move from the Tories (at its most centrist, Call Me Dave had to promise to join the hard-Right in the EU parliament just to get on the ballot). Nor did a coalition with a centre-right party help that - simply strengthening the resolve of the hardliners.

[Merseymike]

Indeed it suggests from events in Manchester thst to get the Tories to change we need to move left. It makes Tory efforts look ridiculously paltry.

[jigger]

Oct 2, 2017 15:57:22 GMT @benjl said:

Oct 2, 2017 15:40:09 GMT Merseymike said:

So we end up with three centre parties - no thanks.

No we move the Overton window, Labour governments cannot last forever and if when the Tories take over there are ruled by thatcherites and Brexiteers all our progress will be rolled back. Moving the country leftwards is far more important than keeping the party pure.

It's obviously not impossible for the Conservatives or Labour to remain in charge of an area for a very long period- see the Conservatives in Westminster or Labour in Knowsley. But in a country as diverse as England, eventually the government, whether Conservative or Labour, will be tossed out by the voters. I've never subscribed to this bizarre view which some of our more excitable pundits has held that we will have permanent Conservative government when Labour is in a bit of a crisis or permanent Labour government when the Conservatives are in difficulty. It is of course perfectly possible for the Conservative Party to be re-elected at the next election, but at some point, the electorate will tire of our present Conservative government and will return a Labour government. That Labour government may govern for a long time but eventually it too will become unpopular and a Conservative government with be returned. That is how English politics has worked for at least the last 70 years and anyone who talks about permanent Labour or permanent Conservative governments should not be taken seriously.

[albion]

Oct 2, 2017 16:51:40 GMT jigger said:

Oct 2, 2017 15:57:22 GMT @benjl said:

No we move the Overton window, Labour governments cannot last forever and if when the Tories take over there are ruled by thatcherites and Brexiteers all our progress will be rolled back. Moving the country leftwards is far more important than keeping the party pure.

It's obviously not impossible for the Conservatives or Labour to remain in charge of an area for a very long period- see the Conservatives in Westminster or Labour in Knowsley. But in a country as diverse as England, eventually the government, whether Conservative or Labour, will be tossed out by the voters. I've never subscribed to this bizarre view which some of our more excitable pundits has held that we will have permanent Conservative government when Labour is in a bit of a crisis or permanent Labour government when the Conservatives are in difficulty. It is of course perfectly possible for the Conservative Party to be re-elected at the next election, but at some point, the electorate will tire of our present Conservative government and will return a Labour government. That Labour government may govern for a long time but eventually it too will become unpopular and a Conservative government with be returned. That is how English politics has worked for at least the last 70 years and anyone who talks about permanent Labour or permanent Conservative governments should not be taken seriously.

Well.......not quite. 2 of the last 3 elections seem to show that the voters prefer not to give any party a majority. I appreciate that this offends your political sensitivities - but it is clearly significant in the context of electoral history.

[jigger]

Oct 2, 2017 17:03:17 GMT albion said:

Oct 2, 2017 16:51:40 GMT jigger said:

It's obviously not impossible for the Conservatives or Labour to remain in charge of an area for a very long period- see the Conservatives in Westminster or Labour in Knowsley. But in a country as diverse as England, eventually the government, whether Conservative or Labour, will be tossed out by the voters. I've never subscribed to this bizarre view which some of our more excitable pundits has held that we will have permanent Conservative government when Labour is in a bit of a crisis or permanent Labour government when the Conservatives are in difficulty. It is of course perfectly possible for the Conservative Party to be re-elected at the next election, but at some point, the electorate will tire of our present Conservative government and will return a Labour government. That Labour government may govern for a long time but eventually it too will become unpopular and a Conservative government with be returned. That is how English politics has worked for at least the last 70 years and anyone who talks about permanent Labour or permanent Conservative governments should not be taken seriously.

Well.......not quite. 2 of the last 3 elections seem to show that the voters prefer not to give any party a majority. I appreciate that this offends your political sensitivities - but it is clearly significant in the context of electoral history.

No, the electorate in 2010, 2015 and 2017 wanted a Conservative government (and in 2005 in England as well for that matter). 

[Sibboleth]

Oct 2, 2017 15:38:52 GMT Merseymike said:

Those votes look pretty much core leftist to me - certainly in the West.

But look at the difference between federal and state percentages. Given how relatively small all of those votes are the differences are very significant. We're usually talking of percentages that are almost twice as high in federal elections.

The East is where the SPD are much weaker anyway

Yet run three state governments (Berlin, Brandenburg, MVP) and 'won' in the region as recently as 2005. But this is an important point to remember: the issue with the SPD's weakness at present is very much with the weakness of the federal SPD; the consistently higher levels of strength at other levels of government (and in Germany these are actually important) are not being translated to federal politics.

[Sibboleth]

Oct 1, 2017 7:48:11 GMT jamie said:

(they had no one better than Schulz anyways)

Not true; Schulz was very much a B Team candidate (just as Steinbrück was in 2013 though in a different way; Steinbrück was a has-been who just sort of lingered around and ended up becoming the candidate by default, Schulz was always on the B Team). The issue is that none of the possible serious contenders wanted to run because they assumed (we might say correctly, but given how Schulz polled before the electorate decided that, yeah, B Team, who knows?) that the election could not be won. And in the end Schulz's problem (other than the electorate deciding that he had no chance) was that he had no room to maneuver as the Party remained in government, and so the SPD just drifted. If he sticks around I wouldn't be entirely surprised if he turned out to be a reasonably effective opposition leader; he's waspish enough.